Hapless Bills Fan

FIFY This has me totally shaking my head. I mean, the BEST year this guy has had is 56 receptions for 652 yds...and that was his 2nd year in the league, with rookie Josh Allen throwing to him. Second best, 47 receptions for 546 yds. Those are career journeyman numbers, not $8M/yr numbers By the way, by every WR metric EXCEPT CATCH % and DROP %, his best year was 2019 with the Bills. That's right...TD, 1D, YPG, R/G, all better with Josh "rookie" Allen than the "real QB" his dad wanted for him.

Yes It Is Agreed What did you say?

Um, 2 yrs $17M is not 2x 2 yrs $14M? Also, Trubisky's contract has $13.75M of incentives, reported as "easily reachable" if he starts. https://steelersnow.com/steelers-get-mitchell-trubisky-on-incentive-laden-contract/ We don't know the details yet -depending upon the agent, it's possible Taylor's contract is much smaller and a good portion of that $17M is incentives?

Whisky Tango Foxtrot? That's one in the gut for Davis Webb. Bet he's glad he moved there so's he could have a chance for playing time.

Hey don't shoot the messenger

Really? Who are these same people? Spoiler: usually when someone says something like that on our board, it's not the same guys

Different guy in the same thread

OK, you had a name - Good for you! Seriously, Kudos, because when challenged many people don't. But who else? Might not fall to us. And are we betting the season on a rookie stepping up opposite Dane Jackson? How about a CB in FA, because starting the season with 2 on the roster might not be a great plan. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kaiir-elam/3200454c-4155-0002-a198-92eda6859fa9 Zierlein, who isn't infalliable but who I most often find myself nodding along to when I re-read his draft profiles 2-3 yrs later, says "Elam has early CB3 and eventual CB2 value as a press and zone corner." Eventual doesn't sound like a good 2022 plan I've had glimmers of the same thought Edit: saw this list of FA QB. Didn't make me thrilled. Who do folks like?

Over in the Harrison Phillips won't be back thread, there's a dude who says he sat with a bunch of Levi's friends at a game and has kept in touch, and Levi loves Buffalo and wanted to return.

Like?

Even if we have tons of faith in Dane Jackson, we need a good quality replacement....Tre is likely not going to be ready to start the season.

Good enough, who's the replacement?

That's not very much. Given he's a guy we developed, I would have expected him to be re-signed for that.

Getzenberg followed it up:

Well....he's more durable (has played every game the last 4 years) while playing close to 60% of the snaps In terms of production (not that that's paramount at 1TDT) they're similar, Harry has a few more TFL and tackles. I'm gonna guess that the sticking point might be guaranteed money, given Phillips track record on durability (missing significant time 3 out of 4 years) I think the initial McKenzie #s were a mistake by Schefter, but one does wonder if there's some padding in there.

I would go so far as saying that would be crazy money

$10M cap hit this season Trading him saves $7M They have cap space per Spotrac but maybe they're looking for a big signing

When you told me he's good at pass pro I did "feel a little something"

Thanks for the clear explanation. In part, I disagree with you and I note that the guys who break down film disagree in that they would point out how Daboll would riff on previous plays to bait-n-switch the next defense - McKenzie running endless crossing routes against NWE one week then making a cut for a reception and a nice gain the next while the D expected him to keep going is one small example. I do think it's selling Daboll short to say he's a guy who learnt a formula and doesn't adapt to the next defense. In part, from the start with Daboll, what you're saying echoed something I felt. In 2018, I spent way too much of my life watching the Bills failed run plays and trying to figure out what the play was supposed to do and thinking to myself "but I don't think that's how defensive players are looking at that". I do think he may have a fundamental blind spot where he legit felt that the way to overcome teams doubling Diggs and bracketing Beasley, was to sign a guy who could to some extent play both roles and say "you can't cover all of us". Well, other things being equal, that's true, but if the OL can't hold up because defensive coordinators are correctly diagnosing "***** run defense, they're not gonna try to run, just stunt and shift post snap and overload one side of the line and blanket the field long enough to get there". And if Keith Butler and Mike Tomlin and Urban Meyer and Tony Dungy and Chris Simms and I can all see that but Daboll can't and can't adjust, it's a problem. I think "creative, but maybe not always a positive creativity" is a good summation.

FIFY (also don't forget Feliciano who was not playing well before his injury) I think there's reason to believe Dawkins-Saffold-Morse-Bates-Brown could be an improvement on Dawkins-Boettger-Morse-Williams-Brown or Dawkins-Bates-Morse-Williams-Brown. And of course, both those lines were improvements on Dawkins-Feliciano-Morse-Ford-Williams. We'll see what the contract for Saffold is. It's possible, between him raving about the knowledgeable training/S&C staff, the amazing training facilities, and Aaron Kromer, that Saffold had non-monetary motivations to choose Buffalo. But until we see the contract, we won't know.

It's totally understandable not to want to re-type an entire evaluation, but could you link the post where you provided it? I ask because I actually was curious (and respecting of your views) enough to search for it, and this is the only post by you mentioning Saffold that I could find: "I want to stop bringing in older mid tier guys and try and get 1 or 2 guys who make an impact." isn't much of an evaluation. Saffold is 3 years older than Norwell, but Saffold did go to the probowl last year (for what that's worth) while Norwell took a paycut to stay on the Jaguar's roster in 2021, and it's not like the Jags OL did a great job with .... well, anything, last year. Again, totally not a problem to refer to your previous evaluation of Saffold, but I did search and this is the only post after last fall, where you corrected a misapprehension about who started on OL for Tenn when we played them.

So you're arguing that a highly evaluated player immediately loses value if he actually falls in the draft? Like, if everyone is evaluating Aaron Rodgers as a high 1st round pick but he falls to #24, Green Bay shouldn't pick him because the very fact that he fell means the evaluations were incorrect? Or Drew Brees falling to 32nd means he was a Bad Draft Pick also? I don't think you can support that argument very well. Draft evaluation is an art, and different scouts/teams/pundits weight different factors differently, but the mere fact that a highly evaluated player fell in the draft doesn't intrinsicly change their evaluation on a team's draft board. That's not how it works. (which sometimes has nothing to do with the player, and everything to do with teams factoring need into the equation which they do)

Heh. Nah. There's a saying that "one AwShit wipes out 10-15 attaboys". I think in a similar vein, 13 seconds of suck wipes out much fine defense in a lot of memories here. Whoaoa, I thought the opposite. To me, Daboll had excessive creativity and brought it out at the worst times, like say 3rd and 5 on the PIttsburgh 5 yd line with 5 minutes left while we're losing 20-10. I'd be like "quit with the gimmicks and gadgets and focus on getting the fundamentals right!"

Bottom line: We both agree he is No Way No How a guy you give a long term $5M/yr contract to or even a 1 year, $5M contract. He was an interesting experiment at $1.5M to see if his 2020 stats of 5.5 sacks and 15 QB Hits could be expanded upon and if he could be developed to fill in the gaps in his game, but the answer appears to be "No".

Lazy take. I'm not saying this signing excites me, mind. But the paradox of Breida was a very fast guy who saw >100 carries a year and 20 receptions a year for 3 years on a very good team that went to the Superbowl, but then could barely see the field in Miami. Was he used up/injured/demotivated? Or was it Miami? McKissic has struggled with injuries the last two seasons, but he's a legit receiving threat out of the backfield with 80 targets and 60 receptions per season the last two years, even WITH missing some games. He's seen the field whenever healthy, and they've missed him when he's not. Almost 50% of his receiving yards are YAC and close to that for rush yards, so he might bring that YAC element that was missing from the short passing game as well. Hope we can "get him right" and keep him healthy though