Hapless Bills Fan

I didn't see this upthread, but this seems like the right place for it. Joe Buscaglia tweeted out the full text of what Beane responded when he was asked about Mario Addison's role now that we drafted two DE's: It's only May of course, but it sounds as though Beane is very much planning on having Addison part of the mix.

You did a much better job of articulating one of the differences I see, Thanks! And yes, good point - if KC were totally sold on Brown as "the Man" for them, they would likely have extended hm right after the trade. Of course, they still could now that FA and the draft are wrapped up.

I'm long time gone on the record about not being a fan of various "advanced metrics". De gustibus and all that. Here's my thing about Mayfield. He's undoubtedly talented. But even last year, while he clearly improved, he had games where he played very well, and he had other games we (and the national media) would have been filleting him for, if he were a Bill. He had 9 games of ~200 yds or less and a 10th of 224 yds. He had 7 games where his completion % was less than 60%. He had 4 games where he didn't pass for a TD, and 2 more where he passed for only one. He had 3 games where his INTs equaled or exceeded his TDs. IDK, I guess advanced metrics tell a better picture than all that simple straightforward stuff? People dump on Mayfield unfairly at times, but IMHO he also gets a bit of a "pass" for having been annointed by the analytics crowd pre-draft - the "halo" effect. If he can take another step and be more consistent week to week, that would be an improvement.

No argument with the former, though Pittsburgh by the end of the season was a bit of a paper tiger IMO. Browns also played the Jets 😈 albeit without several WR. The point of the SOS thing though, is to take into account the entire schedule, and it did put the Browns SOS considerably lower than the Bills (30 vs 21)

Very helpful, thanks...Basically what I get is they hope Willy Gay is ready to step into Wilson's role, they hope La'Jarious Sneed is ready to take over for Breeland (depth though?) and they really don't have someone replacing Kpassanagno, but they hope they can shift Chris Jones to DE and replace him with Jaron Reed, is that what I get? I think those are all reasonable suggestions, but they don't (to me) amount to "getting better" on D. I do agree that the OL (on paper) should be vastly improved. There's just something about the Orlando Brown move that twitches my 'huh' sensors...I hope it works out for you.

No worries. Fair point on the #1 picks failing, or at least not living up to the hype. I don't think Lawrence has the traits of the guys who flamed out though. I understand the reasoning. I feel that it's not a sure thing that Creed will be ready to start (though in Thuney, he should have a stalwart helping him, and I thought KC had signed a capable NFL center, @Zerovoltz evidently disagrees [edit or maybe he agrees and it just slipped his mind]). And I could be totally off the mark here, but while I understand why KC made the decisions it made, I thought Fisher was an underrated LT, better than average, and I think there are some unique features of the Ravens O that may have helped Brown shine. But we'll see. He should certainly be motivated to excel! That's just the vibe I have about it, maybe it's off the mark. On paper I certainly agree KC made all the right moves to upgrade their OL impressively.

I don't think people are ignoring it, but it's being weighted mentally by who they played. I'm not an analytics guru, but at the end of the season, it was calculated that the Bills (despite playing the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots twice) had the 21st hardest SOS (6th among the playoff teams) while the Browns had the 30th hardest SOS (12th among playoff teams). I mean, it's what we heard in 2019 when the Bills were 10-6, right? "Who did they play? Who did they beat?" Question: do you really think losing OBJ had that big an effect on the Browns? He did have a 1000+ yd season in 2019 with Baker, but he just didn't seem like he was ever in sync with him like a #1 WR, and he was #3 on the team in Y/G behind Landry and Higgins, #6 in Y/Tgt. The Browns could be the best team in the North, but that kind of depends upon Baker taking a step IMO, and meanwhile Lamar Jackson not taking a step.

I know you're exaggerating to make a point, but I think in this instance, it's really belittling the point I was making to compare it to saying "we don't know if Trevor Lawrence will be better than Mike Glennon". The Chiefs had a very good LT in Eric Fisher for 7 years with 2 probowl appearances. He was consistent, competent, and durable. Orlando Brown played LT in college, but failed to compete for the LT role with the Ravens. He's played a total of 8 games at LT this past season, so he doesn't have a 3 year history as a top-quality NFL LT. Moreover, can we agree that the Ravens offense with Lamar Jackson at QB is relatively unique in the NFL, and differs in multiple regards from the offense KC runs? On paper, the Chiefs have greatly improved their OL, and I applaud the Chiefs for the various moves they made. But on Sunday, I think it's a bit of an open question as to whether Brown will work out at LT for the Chiefs as well as he stepped into the role for the Ravens. I don't think it's nearly as far-fetched as comparing Trevor Lawrence and Mike Glennon for the reasons stated above.

Where does Austin Blythe fit into this picture? Did KC sign him just for giggles? I mean, I get it, $990k guaranteed is relatively peanuts, but you'd think they didn't sign him to a guaranteed contract because they thought Thuney was a great backup center. Has Thuney even played a snap at Center in the NFL? No argument with the basic point which is that on paper, KC has successfully improved its OL and on paper, it's the best OL Mahomes has had. Thank you for reinforcing my point that Watkins was not a key loss to the Chiefs. I have no reason to argue that these guys are "just guys", but the fact remains, they were getting a lot of snaps on the KC defense over other "just guys" who presumably, didn't play as well and therefore were assigned to play "left Bench" behind them....and we have seen that in football, an ultimate team sport, if all 11 don't do their job, the stars don't shine as bright. So who is replacing these "JAGs" for KC? What's the plan there?

How do you know the Browns have a solid draft that will play day one? In 2020, the Browns got a solid LT in Rd 1 who played 15 games, but their 2nd round pick Delpit spent the season on IR, and their 3rd round pick Elliot became a rotational DT who was playing 15-32% of the snaps the 2nd half of the season. They drafted 2 guys that a lot of us wanted, but whether or not they play day one, Time will Tell

TBH, weren't people predicting great things for the Browns in 2019 because it was felt Baker would surely take a step with (his?) handpicked GOOD coach, Kitchens, and they'd added so much talent? I mean, OMG they had Chubb and Landry and Njoku and they added OBJ...WHOOOO! I'm not trying to diss on the Brownies and I do think Stefanski is a different level of coach than Kitches or Jackson (I wanted Hue to coach the Bills, too - good thing I'm not picking our coach!). But yeah, exactly. How it looks on paper is not always how it shows IRL.

I was thinking "Allen Diggs" has a nice sound to it

That's what's on the public record, Daughter named Nova and she is a super-cutie. But Diggs just posted an insta story in which he enters a lobby where a woman is sitting with a little boy. The boy runs to him and Diggs picks him up and nestles him and says "that's my boy!" and "I missed you". Now what the rest of the story is, don't know, but Diggs was acting paternal and the whole scene was very "joint custody child transfer where I have no interest in making nice to Mama" So 🤷‍♂️.

Didn't Cleveland already pick up Baker's 5th year option? (*rummage rummage* Yes, yes they did): https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2021/04/26/baker-mayfield-truly-thankful-browns-picked-up-his-5th-year-option/ I don't have the figures, but isn't it pretty much a sure bet that when a team picks up a guys' 5th year option, they extend him? On the other hand...the Panthers picked up Sam Darnold's. Hmmm.

OK - so what teams did the other defenses play against? And how many of the passing yards given up were "garbage time" yards? The Bills had one of the hardest strengths of schedule in the league last year. Other teams also "pad" their stats defensively against weak passing opponents, also. Since we're talking about the Browns, and you're arguing that the Bills aggregate pass defense #s are misleading because of who we played, who did the Browns play? The Ravens 2x - not exactly a high-powered passing attack - Washington Football Team, the Jets, the Giants, the Jaguars, the Ghost of Big Ben Roethlisberger x2 (and back to back at the end of the season). Who are the high powered passing attacks they played, besides the Chiefs in the Division round and possibly the Cowboys? They gave up 481 passing yards to the Cowboys, by the way, and 369 to the Titans. The blanket statement you made "More generally, the Bills defense of 2020 did not play well against good passing offenses, except the game against Justin Herbert and the Chargers. The defensive collapse in the AFC Championship Game was part of a larger pattern." is probably an oversimplification, as is the implication that the Browns put on a better showing against the Chiefs because their defense shut down the Chiefs passing game better than ours did. They didn't. Here's the Chiefs and Browns drives during that game:

I don't know if I agree that the Chiefs got even better, much less significantly better, or not. They were already the "Team to Beat" in the AFC the last several years, and until proven otherwise, that's what they remain. I follow them a little bit since I live in the same state and we have no football team in my city now, so we get a lot of media coverage/chiefs games on TV. My point is that if a guy wants to make an argument about how other teams got better while ours didn't, he's got to come up with a more balanced, thorough assessment, and that one didn't pass my "sniff test" The Chiefs OL line may be better. It depends upon whether Orlando Brown is as good in their blocking scheme and blocking for a pass-heavy offense as he was blocking for Jackson and a run heavy offense. It depends upon whether Creed Humphries is ready to start in the NFL. It depends upon how all these guys gel and come together. Remember when we had "the best DL, on paper" in the NFL? If Brown comes through for them, giving up what they did makes sense, but it did cut down on what they could do, defensively. The Chiefs D was pretty good, and had some losses in FA. Remains to be seen if they improved, tread water, or got worse. My point is it's not a given they got better - they did have losses on D, and Bolton is not necessarily a "woo, ready to Rock!" guy in the NFL - Zierlein grades him as "starter within 2 seasons"

FWIW, Ed Oliver likes our acquisitions:

I think Diggs already has two kids - a daughter and a son

It may be worth pointing out that the Bills ranked #13 in passing yards given up, while the Browns ranked #22 The Browns "stopped" Mahomes and the Chiefs to the tune of giving up 315 passing yards, 438 yds total offense. That happens to be one (yes 1) more yard of offense than the Bills gave up, and 10 fewer passing yards. I don't think those 10 extra passing yards were the key to our losing the game. Perhaps your statements are a little too simplistic.

Respectfully, Inigo, they were all starters or saw significant time for the Chiefs last year, including at the end of the season and in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Sammy Watkins was the #5 receiver on the Chiefs in yards, targets, and receptions, and #4 in yards per reception. If contract length and cost is your yardstick, Watkins signed for 1 year, $5M, which is kinda chump-ish change for a "key" WR and puts him at #18 for a FA WR this year, I believe. So you want to argue that losing one #4 or #5 WR contribution is "key", but 4 starters on D including a CB, aren't? That's headscratching, frankly. The point isn't what they signed for or whether they're unsigned. Josh Norman is still unsigned and it's a legit question for people to look at the Bills and say "how have they replaced him?" Breeland, Wilson, Kpassagnon, and Okafor were taking a lot of defensive snaps at the end of the season/playoffs. If you want to be seen as making a cogent argument that the Chiefs have improved - you need to discuss how two DE who were taking ~50% of the snaps at the end of the season, a MLB who took 70% of the snaps in 2 playoff games, and a starting CB taking close to 100% of the snaps have been replaced. I'm sure Andy wants better players, who are they, and where/how did he get them? We can "agree to disagree" if you like, but only after I point out that an argument about why the Chiefs have gotten better, which claims their #4 or #5 WR is "their only significant loss" while overlooking significant defensive losses in FA is pretty shallow. I'm betting now that if I dug into what you have to say about the Browns I'd find equivalent gaps.

I think not. See above. Somewhere around 30% UDFA, more realistic (25-35%). The other point is most of the PS guys who eventually become solid contributors to an NFL roster take a few years to do so. Justin Zimmer kicking around the league on 3 different teams, bouncing up and down from the practice squad before getting a shot to play consistently would be a good example. It'll depend on how he shows up and shows out in camp, of course, but given how little the Bills have behind him at 1TDT they seem to be counting on him.

Dude, you made a great OP, even if I do feel you missed significant losses to the Chiefs roster - but this kind of response does not do you credit. That's not what people arguing with you are saying. They're saying they understand there's a perceived superiority of the Browns roster overall, but their perceived superiority of Allen over Mayfield at QB overcomes it. That's way different than saying "the Browns can never be better than the Bills because blah blah" Do you think there's really a legit argument that a great QB covers up for a lot of gaps, or that Allen was a better QB than Mayfield last season? Mayfield was a bit bipolar last year. He had games where he looked brilliant, like their week 12 game against Tenn, the week 13 loss to Bal, and the last two games against Pitt (reg season and playoffs). And he had games where, frankly, if he'd have been Allen Bills fans woulda been calling for the hook. Some of them they won, but arguably won in spite of him. Now maybe he'll take a step, no reason he can't. My question about Mayfield is does he have the drive to win that will let him sustain focus and prepare hard, week in week out? Or does he only get it up when there's enough dissing of him in the press/SM to motivate him? And we all hope Allen will sustain or improve on last year, but that's also not a given. Just as a better roster on paper isn't always a better roster on Sunday.

Mahomes went out late in the 3Q and played 71% of the snaps in that game. The score was KC 22-Browns 10 after the drive where he left the game.

Kudos for putting this together, but you lost me right there with the bolded. The Chiefs lost starting DE Tanoh Kpassagnon to NO, starting OLB Damien Wilson to Jacksonville, and starting CB Brashad Breeland is still unsigned as a FA. Defensive end Alex Okafor saw significant playing time (40-50% of the snaps) and is also an unsigned FA at this point. When they lose or have unsigned 3-4 key defensive contributors who saw a lot of snaps and you come out with "the only free agent they lost of any consequence was Watkins", that begs the question just what do you consider "of any consequence"? Now it may be that just like OL, they made sufficient FA or draft moves on D to backfill, or have understudies who looked good and are ready to step in, but at least tell us what those were and why they're just as good. And frankly, it wasn't just the KC OL that was a problem for them in the Superbowl. Their D gave up 145 yds on the ground and gave TB a TOP edge not to mention 3 TD passing. KC is the team to beat in the AFC until proven otherwise, no argument there. I don't know as much about the Brownies, but frankly, the significant gaps in your KC analysis make me question how deep and thoughtful your analysis of the Brownies may be.

Well...According to pro-football-reference, the Bills had 25 UDFA on their roster last season Which is pretty close to 27 BUT, that list of roster members includes 69 players (includes PS as well as guys who were IRd or cut), so 25/69 = 36% I expect the percentage is lower on the actual active roster is lower - it's a bit harder to figure last season with the unique PS rules but running my eyes down the list and not counting guys who were just up for a game, I think I counted 15/53 or 28% For the guys on the field regularly, it would be 4/22 or 18% I guess 50% could be true for the off-season 90 man roster Too late he already signed ...with WFT I think