Hapless Bills Fan

I mean, we all know that the cap is fluid and teams can rearrange the deck chairs and create cap space when they want to. But is Bates the level of OLman you see a team doing that for? Right now the Vikings have an estimated $1.8M cap space remaining, and I don't follow them enough to know whether all their FA signings are on the books yet (They have Harry down for a cap hit of $3.8M) Perhaps. But keep in mind, it's entirely possible Teller doesn't become Teller if he stays on the Bills. And the Bills just signed a massive FA to take the spot where Bates excelled last season. Perhaps he doesn't play as well on the right and knows it, in which case it's better for both him and the Bills if he moves along. It's due diligence. It's a visit.

All of the things on that list are not equal - Ankou has yet to show he can start in the NFL as a DT. He got 2 chances in Cleveland and one in Tennessee, and in both cases the team said "Moving right along...." He got about 1/3 of the snaps in 3 games for Buffalo and an obviously hindered Star got his job right back when available. At this point, yes he's on the roster but until he earns it, he's strictly a backup/PS guy. Second, the 1TDTs currently on the roster are Jones and Lotulelei, in a system where the DC and HC insist on rotation. If we cut Star, it leaves a hole. Settle may be able to play a bit of 1TDT; it's a waste of Oliver's best skills; Phillips can not play 1TDT. I don't know what you mean by "contract set regardless" - we would save cap space if we cut Star, and more if we cut him post-June 1. But I think the Bills value Star still, and have no motivation to cut him until/unless they have at leat 2 1TDTs on the roster who are better.

So there's a lot of stuff mixed together here. The "once a career flyer" to be compensated for a yearly salary, applies to a vested veteran WHO IS ON THE ROSTER THE FIRST DAY OF THE SEASON. So that only comes into play in September. Second, even if another team signs a released Lotulelei for $2.5M or more, whether the Bills would get relief for that or still be on the hook depends upon whether Lotulelei has "offset language" in his contract. "Offset language" allows guaranteed money owed the player by the contracting club to be "offset" by any money the player earns if he's cut and signed elsewhere. Star's contract overall is pretty terrible for the Bills - he must have a good agent/lawyers - so I doubt he has offset language.

Will the Bills lend him a wheelbarrow to carry his "Heavy 11s" out of the building? Couldn't resist a little jab myself....

I'm hoping they draft a good rookie WR. And a rookie TE. McKenzie is no spring chicken himself.

The deal was restructured before Covid and the opt-out season.

You're missing the fact that Star has $1.5M amortized signing bonus for this year and next, plus $2.5M guaranteed salary this season. If he retires, the Bills can ask him to pay back $3M and decline to pay him $2.5M Remember the Eric Wood "Retirement Conference" where he very carefully did not use the word "retire"? He had literally millions of reasons to avoid that word.

Except that Beane did say in a presser that Beasley talked to them and they responded. But maybe the distinction to Nolan is "asked for a trade" means "I'm not happy here, Trade Me" vs. "granted permission to seek a trade" means "I know I'm Turk-bait to you, I don't want to take a pay cut, I'd like a chance to keep my current contract, can we ask around?"

Don't both statements mean that, though? Quote is: " “Cole Beasley asked for a trade” is NOT the same as “The #Bills gave Cole Beasley permission to seek a trade”. Please don’t re-write history. Buffalo wasn’t gonna keep him at that cap number, and no other team bit at that cap number either, so he got released." I mean, to me, they seem like the same thing - doesn't he have to ask for a trade to receive permission to seek one? I'm sure to Nolan they're different statements, that's why I'm asking to be enlightened.

The thing that struck me about that was Tasker and Brown lecturing McKenzie on "Business 101", separating the restaurant phone from his cell phone!!!! My belief during the season was that the "distraction" thing was 1000% overblown and not really an issue to Beasley or to the team, but McKenzie's comments do make it sound as though perhaps Beasley's mind wasn't 100% focused on football.

Right. So what is the distinction that Bruce Nolan is making where "“Cole Beasley asked for a trade” is NOT the same as “The #Bills gave Cole Beasley permission to seek a trade”? 'Cuz I doan gettit

TBH, Bruce Nolan's distinction escapes me here. Can someone explain?

Why would we cut Star now? He's not owed a roster bonus. If we cut him now with a post-June1, we don't realize the higher cap savings until...post-June 1. Beane likes to go into the draft with the "holes" in the roster filled. Cutting Star right now (pre or post June1) would serve no useful purpose.

I believe $6.1M is the correct figure. Edit: Overthecap still had his contract up. $7.6M - $1.5M signing bonus = $6.1M saved

No.

Even before he broke his ribs, the intermediate passing game wasn't there. Defenses had come up with a plan against it and they rode it until we showed they couldn't. He was a huge contributor to Josh's development and to our offense the last 3 years. Small shoes, but a big role to fill somehow!!!

McKissic was not a replacement for Beasley. He was a back with great hands and strong YAC. I think it's possible that Dorsey and Brady want to make more use of TE in the short/intermediate passing game.

Question: Is there any reason to believe, based on college or scouting, that Hodgins has quickness and ability to play in the slot? Not that it's gospel, but I looked up his scouting report and found this: Below average short area twitch to lose coverage Doesn't have enough speed to worry a cornerback Long cornerbacks phase up his sideline routes Extended gather steps to open on comebacks I think it is possible that Dorsey wants to use TE more in the short/intermediate passing game.

Good take IMO. I'll add that one aspect of Cole's tenure here that I think was under-appreciated is how much of a "player coach" he was for 2nd year Josh. He got in Josh's ear every play and helped re-wire him from a QB who thought he could wait to make his throw until the WR turned and rely on his arm to rifle it in, into a QB who would "throw to the spot" and trust his WR to see it the same way and arrive when the ball did. But now Josh has internalized that, and shown he will trust other WR and throw other WR open (Diggs, Davis, Sanders, McKenzie). Beasley is no longer needed in that role. So what does Beasley bring? OK, so there's a bunch of stuff I agree with here, and some I question. Bottom line up front, I agree with you that IF Dorsey wants the same kind of slot receiver role that Beasley filled in this offense, McKenzie is not the answer and the Bills better have another plan. That said.... McKenzie has improved significantly as a route runner in the last 2 years (since Chad Hall and Diggs). He's also improved his hands - some of his 11 receptions in the NWE game were very high degree of difficulty catches, and potentially catches Beasley didn't make last year. That TD catch in the Pats game was thrown behind him, and he literally reversed direction and went back for it. I will grant that Beasley has been McKenzie's Daddy as a route runner and for hands - other things being equal. But when hampered by injury (as he was in playoffs 2020 and much of the season 2021) and as McK has improved, the difference lessens. Maybe to favorite Uncle? I'm also not sure that you're correct McKenzie isn't as tough. Between KR, PR, receptions, and rushes McKenzie saw the ball 78 times last season, "took a licking" on a lot of those plays, held up and hung on. That's essentially the number of touches Beasley saw per year before he joined the Bills, and given that Beasley has been injured 2 of the last 3 years one can make an argument that perhaps the jump in targets wrote a check Beas' body can't cash. McKenzie also both can and will block. Beasley....mmmmm well, let's just say I've never seen him in the backfield with an onrushing LB and if I did, I'd advise Josh to throw it away or run. McKenzie, Josh glanced over and said "OK, I'm good". There's also the speed thing. It doesn't help to know exactly what the defense is going to do if you can't get downfield while the window is open, before the CBs react. And Beasley has never been able to do what McKenzie did against the Pats "he's playing me outside and off, let me run away from him" Where Beasley distinguishes himself is between the ears and very few are close. Isaiah until proven otherwise, isn't even in the same building. Wallace called Beasley a "cheat code" for zone coverage and helping him understand how the best receivers read and react to it. Cole has that ability to watch film and figure out how this particular D is likely to react to different formations and down and distance, and talk it through with Josh to be sure they're on the same page. That's the ability McKenzie has NOT been shown to have. All that said.....we don't know what Dorsey et al have planned for the offense. It's entirely possible they would like the offense to depend less upon option routes and secondary route concepts and to make more use of tight ends, on the "always open 2 feet over his head" principle.

I dunno about fantastic, but the some of the points are germaine about the difference between how a cap-rich team will structure a contract to hit heavily in the first year and perhaps evenly over 3 years, but how a cap-tight team will "roll the can down the road" to trade a low initial cap hit for the risk of the cap/performance ratio going out of whack in later years. I think the germaine point is that if the contract contains $45M guaranteed at signing, $51.5M guaranteed overall, it's not unreasonable to look at it as a 3 year, $51.5M contract ($17M/yr) where some of the cost is "kicked down the road" into the final years. Beane has shown himself good at managing this kind of risk, and our S&C staff has shown itself to be adept at keeping players healthy and productive (sprinkle in some luck and knock wood). As for "opportunity cost", we have to consider that there's been "opportunity cost" in many of the contracts the Bills have had over the last several years, including Hughes, Addison, and Lotulelei.

If you take details reported to date - $45M guaranteed at signing, $51.5 guaranteed overall, and look at the way Beane has structured other contracts... Josh Allen's for example, which is the same length but 2x the cost....Beane likes to layer signing, option, and roster bonuses to kick in on different years. He likes to keep salary low the first couple of years, then have a big jump in salary (but the possibility to convert it to signing bonus and spread it out exists). Sometimes the roster bonuses are fully guaranteed at signing, as a way to spread out the cap hit of a roster bonus but still guarantee the player his $$. For example, Allen has a $6M 2024 roster bonus that became fully guaranteed on 8/11/2021! Beane did this with Tre White as well IIRC. I don't want to speculate, but it's entirely possible that, while the contract averages $17M/yr over the next three years, the cap hit this season is $10M or less. As far as production, I'd also like to point out that most of the elite pass rushers have more than one player on the line who has to be contained as a threat. Miller's last double-digit sack season with the Broncos (2018) included Bradley Chubb and Derek Wolfe. The next year, when Chubb was injured and played only 4 games, Miller's production fell a bit. So how productive Miller is may depend upon Rousseau and Oliver and anyone else Beane adds - if Settle turns out to be a hidden gem or if Basham takes a step or if Beane drafts someone. Edit: link to Josh Allen's contract so anyone curious can see the kind of layering I'm referencing https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/josh-allen-25102/ Tre' White's contract had similar elements, this an example of how Beane appears to like to structure long, large contracts.

What do you think is the price point Beasley can get elsewhere? One person made the point that a reason for Beasley to "get permission to seek a trade" is so that his agent can openly negotiate new contracts with potential trade partners, so the trade partner does not necessarily have to "lock in" to his current contract terms. I'd point out 🦗, except that we all had very visible proof with Beane yesterday that 🦗 are the Orca whale silently swimming up under its prey then 🌊

So of course, the details of the contract aren't out except this: It might be worth pointing out that Von Miller's last contract with the Broncos was 6 years, $117M with a signing bonus of $17M and $42M guaranteed at signing, $70M guaranteed overall. He played out 5.5 years of it before being traded. Obviously there's a lot of "Devil in the Details" of how this is structured. Practically speaking, the reason teams shy away from huge signing bonuses is because that's guaranteed money whether the player kicks ass or "goes on vacation", but when the money is guaranteed either way, there's a lot of freedom in how the money gets moved around between salary and bonus.

I could be wrong, but my translation of what Jon Scott is hinting in the tweets quoted upthread is that Beasley was not offered the option for a paycut to stay with the team.

Von Miller already asked on Insta if 40 was available. I think if a backup or PS player has the number you want, it's considered OK to ask, but kind of "bad locker room manners" to ask for the number of an established starter (especially one who is a playmaker on your side of the ball). So if, say, Reggie Gilliam were #58, Von would be "hey, would you let me have that number?" Asking for the number of a guy who was one of the leading tacklers and in fact led the team in TFL last year is probably not the way you want to enter the room.