Hapless Bills Fan

I thought they might want Kyle Allen, but he apparently just signed a 1 year, $2.5M contract with the Texans of which $2.25M is guaranteed - which might be more than the Bills would want to pay/guarantee (and he may see himself more likely to start in Houston) Pretty wild that we signed Trubisky last season for the same $$ Nice raise for Allen, who earned $850k last season, Josh Allen must be happy for his friend.

This. Guys can absolutely grow and develop, but "hope is not a plan". Even Davis has looked uneven in his development at times. Not a fan of BPA and "let the board come to us" I see I think we restructured Dawkins and White last year....though looking at Dawkins contract perhaps I'm mistaken.

I don't really understand how Spotrac and Overthecap work, but my guess is that the league office is pretty well overwhelmed the first couple days of FA and are working full-bore to keep up. If Spotrac has sources there, they may not have time to keep them in the loop. I suspect they get info from agents as well, but the same "working full bore" may apply and agents are not necessarily reliable sources when they're trying to make every contract sound fantastic. Or, contrarily, if their guys sign a cheap deal, they don't want to depress the market so they keep it hush. And yeah, I'm personally F5ing and "Jonesing" for the details on Jones, Phillips, Lawson, Saffold, Miller, and Howard

Huh. 🤷‍♂️ Apparently Adams and Derek Carr are good friends:

Every year player late in the 1st or in the 2nd or 3rd round outperform players who were drafted higher. Lots of reasons for that, including difficulty projecting how a guy will adjust to the pro's, injury, self-motivation, coaching etc. Year 1 (2020) we were struggling at DT all season with Harrison coming back from his ACL and Lotulelei opting out. Lack of push up the middle had an impact on the edges.

That may be part of the basis for why the lower tender; perhaps the Bills know he doesn't play as well on the R or something? I thought Bates played well, but it's a mystery then why he started the season #3 on the depth chart at LG. I'm not one of the "oh noes, the coaches are idiots and keep the good players on the bench for no reason while starting the bad ones" conspiracy theorists. I would like to argue that OG, along with CB, are the team's top needs heading into the draft whether or not we keep Bates.

As a long term plan, we'd best use at least one high draft pick on a G and maybe a lower pick as well, in any event. Rodger Saffold on a 1 year contract is not a long-term plan. Bates may be a longer term plan, but he's started all of 6 games in his NFL career, we just changed OL coach, and we're about to ask him to switch sides to RG. That's not a lot of data to go on whether he's the next Wyatt Teller we've been heartlessly burying on the depth chart for years. This

Do we know what their money is yet? Shaq Lawson struggled in Miami and with the Jets. There may be other factors there, but it's not like he likely had other suitors beating down his agents door to pay him the big bucks. Jordan Phillips was a big disappointment in Arizona, in part due to several injuries. Again, it's not likely he had other suitors beating down his agents door Depending on the money spent and the energy/attitude they bring, it may be great moves for us, but it's not like it's out of the great love and goodness of their hearts. It will come at a cost of not being able to keep younger developmental players on the roster, even if we pick a couple up in the draft or as UDFA. Wyatt Teller would be an example of that pitfall; we traded him away just before the start of his 2nd season because Morse was out all preseason with a concussion, and we wanted to ensure we had an OLman who was proven to be able to play C on the roster in the 6 year veteran Spencer Long. I can't argue the move in the short run, but in the long run it wasn't to our roster development benefit. PS that will prolly be taken as a "Debbie Downer" thing but I don't say it to poop on the signings, just pragmatically. Because of the cap and roster limits, there are some zero-sum games here: while the Steelers are sticking with Big Ben, they can't invest a high draft pick in a young QB and develop him etc.

Starting a post with "let's be honest" seems to imply that you doubt the honesty of the people on this board, or at least the person to whom you're responding. Is that your intent? Lotulelei and Murphy were both signed here in 2018, Beane's first off-season. Murphy had been a promising young pass rusher with 9 sacks the year before his ACL injury. We had him the first year he was back, and he never returned to form. Phillips and Lawson both left in FA after 2019, so Murphy, Lotulelei, Phillips, and Lawson played together for 2 years. It takes a couple seconds to look this up. I'm not quite sure what your point is here? You seem to have the sequence of arrivals and departures and the roles players were intended to fill/actually asked to fill a bit blurred, and your intended point is blurred with it. Is it that the guys who arguably were signed to replace Lawson and Phillips (Addison and Butler) cost the same as Lawson and Phillips? Can you back that up? (I don't have energy in researching it for you, but I think it was less) Are you trying to say that McDermott should philosophically "step away from the DL rotation" so he doesn't keep 10 or 11 DLmen on the roster every year? It's a point, but it would require a fundamental change in philosophy. McDermott believes in a DL rotation, so it's not like Murphy was signed to replace Lawson (even if the dates lined up, which they don't) and a 1T DT role differs from a 3T DT role, so it's not like Star was signed to replace Phillips (even if those dates lined up, which they don't) or vice versa. Actually, Addison did not achieve as expected by sack numbers. He had 11, 9, and 9.5 in the 3 years before he was signed along with 15,12, and 14 QB hits. In his 2 seasons here, he averaged 6 sacks and 7.5 QB hits. By his previous numbers, he was expected to be an improvement on Shaq, and he wasn't. I'm not sure what "non-positional bust" means. Pretty sure Q Jefferson was signed as a partial replacement for Zo Alexander, a guy who could be a bit of a "joker" and play either inside or outside. Once Lotulelei opted out in 2020 no one on the inside of the line was used as they were intended; Jefferson was asked to eat a steady diet of 3TDT snaps and he didn't do well. Butler was signed as a 3TDT and played better in 2021 when he was allowed to be a 3TDT. In 2020, he was asked to play 1TDT when Lotulelei opted out and we were left with just Harrison Phillips coming back from ACL surgery on the roster. It wasn't his gig and he struggled. He got better towards the end of the season, which helped us down the stretch. Again, you seem to be implying that Murphy and Star were signed to replace Lawson and Phillips. They were not. They were signed in 2018, and played alongside Lawson and Phillips for 2 seasons. There are a bunch of sites on the Interwebs where this kind of thing can be looked up very quickly. Pro-football-reference.com is one such. See above regarding roles. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. An opinion is stronger when it's supported by correct info.

Er…didn’t you just say “he will have no choice but to play, unless he chooses not to play”?

I think the 6 DL we lost to FA (including 3 DT) would explain the influx of 5 DL (including 3 DT), without the need to invoke Star retiring. McDermott is usually non-committal and vague except in the rare instances where he’s trying to send a message. I got pwn’d for doubting a media member’s sources already (hi @RyanTalbotBills) on the Jordan Phillips/Shaq Lawson re-signings - and I know the Cover1 guys do have some sources - so I should probably quit while I’m behind. But the thing is, Joe B and others were speculating last off-season about Star retiring and yet, once mandatory activities came around, There He Was. And from a member of the media, I was told that Star was not made available at the pressers last season despite multiple requests, so apparently he avoids talking to media where possible. So just where are these rumors coming from? We’ve had Mitch Morse retirement rumors, he signed an extension. We’ve had a rumor about Matt Milano being cut that supposedly came from Chris Brown. I don’t think it would be a surprise if Lotulelei is considering retirement. I’m sure if he does retire, it would be a negotiation with the Bills what happens to his signing bonus and to his guaranteed money. I also wouldn’t be surprised if having a guy who showed up at a playoff game wearing his jersey back to play next to him wouldn’t be an inducement. I *think* Star retiring would be a Good Thing and yet….hasn’t this week been a bit of a “Fail” referendum on the Bills ability to develop DL talent in-house? They need to draft or sign a replacement, and developing or signing keepers on DL (and OL) has not been a strong point to date.

$3.9M would currently slot Bates in at #14 on the Bills cap list, with Phillips Lawson Jones and Saffold unknown, Bates said by Schefter to be lower, and Miller assumed to be higher. Is Bates a top-20 player on the Bills roster? Neither Wallace nor Harrison Phillips would have broken our bank to sign, as it happens. But Beane had a value on them, and he wasn't going to exceed it. Beane evidently does not consider Bates a $3.9M value. Now, maybe he's wrong - if there's one position where this regime seems to struggle with talent identification, OL seems to be it. But maybe he's not.

I think the bolded is an outdated take. Here's an article which references a bunch of studies (quote below is from one of the referenced studies): Article also points out: There's also the case of Eric Fischer, the Chiefs long time LT, who tore his Achilles in the AFCCG. The Chiefs cut him and traded for Orlando Brown. Fischer signed with the Colts and was back in just under 8 months, starting for the Colts - although he acknowledged he wasn't fully himself yet: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/10/01/eric-fisher-has-returned-to-play-but-acknowledged-hes-not-100-percent-yet/ (He pretty clearly got better as the season moved on). In any event, he's now >1 season past the injury, so return to pre-injury performance is possible. Prior to the injury, he had Jameis Winston throwing to him. Don't know how that affects things, but the Bucs kept him on the field for 48% of the snaps in 2020 and 31% in 2021, which is a lot of field-time for a guy who apparently can neither block nor catch when he's on said field and with two quality TE available. The cap is fluid, but Minnesota currently has <$2M of cap space. Question: do you believe Bates is the type of player you rearrange your cap and kick the can down the road for, to create a "poison pill" contract?

LOL probably. But it gave me chills, so better twice than missed.

Who you want besides Saffold and a draft pick on the OL? Or are you dissing of Saffold as "not OL help"?

Did we get this one yet?

The thing is, the roster looks like this at present: Bills DT Room 3/17 1T DT 3T DT Jones Oliver Lotulelei Phillips (Settle may play there some) Settle I'm not persuaded they view Jones and Settle as their 1TDT rotation, and also not persuaded that would be a good idea if they do Oliver can play 1T DT but it's a waste of his best skills Phillips either can't or won't. It was a Bad Plan to try him there, even worse than putting Butler there - Butler eventually 'cowboy'd up' and did it OK in small doses I understand the perception - Phillips is a Big Big Man - but the reality is, at least last time he was here it wasn't his Gig At the bottom I agree with you "there are a lot of reasons to wait and as long as no bonuses are coming due (there aren't any), no reason to do it now"

So here we are at the end of Day Two and wondering what will happen? Remember Beane is a B.A.D. man (Beane After Dark)

Is it just me, or does anyone else find it tacky of the Commanders to have Wentz doing his intro presser in a gold jacket?

If Daboll were here and did it on the offensive side this season, he'd have 2 guys stand up on offense instead of one.

I assume nothing. But the Packers GM has to be ready to show him his contract and say "look, fella....if we put the gold in one pot, we have to take it out of another"

Uh-oh....WWRD (what will Rodgers do?)

That's not correct. If Star is designated a post-June 1 cut, we get no cap relief now and the rest post June 1 (including the 1.5M we would get if we cut him today) His roster bonus is all per-game, nothing "start of league year" I believe the workout bonus only applies to mandatory workouts, starting in June Why do so many think Star is "done"? Has he said so? I have thought that the Bills might see him as the rookie signing money. Basically, get through FA and the draft, assess our position, and cut him if we don't feel we need him. It's a point of contention. In theory, the team can ask him to return this year and next year's amortized signing bonus, and refuse to pay his guaranteed salary. In practice, it's apparently difficult to get the signing bonus back.