Hapless Bills Fan

"today Aunt Svetlana, quite serious, comes up to me and asks me if I think that the mighty Josh Allen could lift and raise the whole house if he wanted to. I said yes, of course. What a stupid question." I don't know. "Ben Cheeseburger" is pretty funny to me. "The greatest QB of all time, Ben Roethlisberger, will enter the garbage town of Buffalo and destroy Josh Allen. "silence, wrong! Ben Cheeseburger should sit in a reclining chair and tell stories, not be a football player. Grizzly Bear Josh Allen will crush the Steel People!"

Of course they have, and in fact they'll be looking very hard at games like the AFCCG where the Bills struggled offensively. But part of the ability to shut us down on offense or overcome our defense isn't just knowing what we do and having a good plan - it's having the personnel to execute that plan. A lot of teams would like to shut the Ravens down, and many studied what the Bills and what Tennessee did last year, and had some success implementing it, so the Ravens offense wasn't quite so prolific. The Ravens had the #7 offense instead of #1, and were 11-5 instead of 14-2. But they still won 11 games and gained more than 400 yds 6x because having a plan isn't the same thing as executing it. Yep, that's part of the key. Having players with a growth mindset who keep improving is another part. This.

I for one would happily devour my crow sandwich if McDermott is speaking truth that Knox has had a great camp, has shown good development, is earning Josh Allen's trust, and has his "best football" ahead of him this season. Apologies if already posted, but better to post 2x than miss this stuff

Well, when your TE has blocking assignments in the run game or the pass game and he whiffs them badly, your run play gets blown up in the backfield and your QB gets hit. Knox's blocking has been just as inconsistent as his receiving. He can really take a guy out of a play, or he can totally whiff. Or his 3rd alternative, fail to understand who TF he's actually supposed to be blocking given a defensive shift. After last season, Knox had as much need to level up there as anyplace else.

Well Hey Y'all, Guess What https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/report-jags-expected-to-sign-veteran-te-jacob-hollister/ar-AAO2oxN Not really. He was drafted by Houston in 2019, who kept him on the roster until after the 2nd pre-season game August 24. The Pats and Colts then brought him in as either a 3rd game body (or for an extended tryout) but didn't like him enough on brief acquaintance to displace someone else. The Pats have a pretty deep TE room with Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry then last year's 3rd round pick Devin Asiasi. They've also got a 4 year vet who was with them all summer on their PS. The Colts also have a pretty deep TE room with Mo Alie-Cox, Jack Doyle, and this year's 4th round pick Kylen Granson. As someone else pointed out, Warring was drafted in the 3rd round by Brian Gaines when he was with the Texans, and it's believed the Bills scouted him in that draft (he was drafted in the 3rd, 10 slots before Dawson Knox). I think Warring was the "odd man out" in two respects: 1) he was drafted 2 GMs ago - the new talent evaluators tend to prefer the guys they scouted (sometimes for good reason, sometimes not). Injuries have slowed him, and he hasn't developed into the polished starter they hoped he'd be by this time 2) they have two veteran TE and a new rookie they drafted this year, so Warring was the odd-man-out In a way, Warring can be seen as another form of "shot across the bows" to Knox. He was drafted in the same year, 10 slots earlier, graded "6.3 - will be a starter within 2 seasons" by NFL.com (vs Knox 6.2 "good backup who could become a starter"). In his 3rd season, he just got waived by 3 teams in 8 days, and his best shot is an offer to the practice squad by a good team with bad TE. "Not For Long", baby - get it together or that could be you.

I could be mistaken, but I don't see it. Sweeney over Hollister is the most puzzling decision on the roster to me. I thought a 7th round pick after a year on IR could slide right onto the practice squad. The only way it makes sense to me is that the Bills see Knox and Hollister as filling relatively interchangeable roles - Hollister would be the Kroft-replacement as Knox's backup - and they believe Sweeney's strength and blocking technique have improved to where he can more edge towards being the Lee Smith replacement, the TE who can block in-line or leak out, and who the other team kind of forgets about because he lacks the speed and agility to separate downfield. In this scenario, the Bills decided to do without a backup to Knox on the roster (or feel a combination of Kumerow and Gilliam could fill that role in a pinch) in order to leave room for an extra DE.

I was mistaken, and very sad to be so. I don't understand the Sweeney over Hollister decision, but the coaches must have their reasons. Likewise

So Back in Da Day, John Brown ran a 4.34 at the 2014 combine. Further Back in Da Day, Emmanuel Sanders ran a 4.41 at the 2010 combine. That's not as fast, but still faster than many corners. Fair question is: how much of that speed does each of them retain, today - 11 years and 7 years later, after multiple foot and ankle injuries and surgeries? John Brown was 1) Out for 7+ games last season and relatively ineffective in 2 more 2) IMHO, not as fast when he returned from injury A look at how the Bills passing game fared in those games would probably be indicative of whether your concerns are warranted Sanders was still with Denver in the 2019 offseason when the Bills signed Brown I believe it may be true that the Bills were interested in trading for him, but unwilling to offer the 3rd and 4th (with a 5th back) that San Fran offered.

You're right, I must have missed that, considering that the post to which you were responding clearly said "top 100 WR" If that's not your claim, you might have made it clearer in your post. I wouldn't argue with "not top 100 players" Top 75 though? Look, I quoted some important WR metrics which everyone can easily find that had him 40s to 60s last year. It's not some unsupported claim. If you want to blow those off and claim he's not as good as his numbers show, I think it's properly "on you" to make some sort of a case for it. Now it's possible Smoke is washed, but he deserves his propers for his years with the Bills.

Then I think it's "on you" to name 100+ WR in the league who are better Last year John Brown YPG - 49; Y/Tgt 43; drop % tied for 68; no fumbles

Correction: Steelers defense WAS top 5 in the league, last year. That was Then, This is Now. Counts both ways (for them, and for us)

I was looking for this article actually when I posted the others and couldn't find it quickly - THANKS! This is what really struck me about it. Zimmer came from DII Ferris State in 2016, the year before McDermott and Beane took over (eventually he wound up on the Saints practice squad) Zimmer just described what McDermott tries to inculcate: The Growth Mindset. After his first stint, he realized that he couldn't take the NFL for granted, that he wasn't good enough, and he wasn't daunted by that a bit. He decided to get good enough, by his own hard work. He became self-aware and self-critical and focused on getting better. People say "this guy has been bouncing around the league for 5 years, why would you expect him to be any good now?" Well, the reason is because he had enough of the raw ingredients, the athleticism; he started low, at a DII school against lesser competition; and he's been honing his craft and working his ass off for 5 years. So why wouldn't you expect him to be better?

Oh wow, considering that he damn near ran down Cheetah Hill in the AFCCG, that would actually be a bit scary if he got faster

I hesitate to say this because I know someone else will pipe up with a version of "Kumerow isn't a TE you fool! He's a freakin' 209 lb 6'4" toothpick, and I'm sure it's been suggested to him more than once that he bulk up and try TE so he probably can't carry the weight" Yes, I know Kumerow isn't a TE, but I do think he does fill aspects of the "TE as receiving threat" role in that he can be open when he's covered, and he's a decent downfield and backfield (not in-line) blocker. There's some tidy film out there of a DLman licking his chops as he went through the line to blow up the run play in the backfield only to find himself quickly escorted out of the play by Jake (this was in GB). The "Wait, it wasn't supposed to go like this!" was palpable.

https://www.wivb.com/sports/nfl-journeyman-justin-zimmer-finally-gets-his-shot/ I think because he's been the underdog and his roster spot has never been secure, he feels an extra need to keep grinding

Strangely, there seems to be an article about this: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/justin-zimmer-hopes-to-have-finally-found-a-permanent-nfl-home-in-buffalo/article_8cf95af6-f96e-11eb-be02-dfd4eb52ffcd.html Talk about a methodical approach to improvement:

That almost makes it sound as though Hollister, with his friendship and prior "chemistry" with Josh, was indeed signed as a "shot across the bows" to Knox, so now Knox got the message and leveled up so we didn't need him. I just don't understand why we couldn't have two OK to good TE on the roster, so that if Knox is injured we have someone to put in the game who is not a big step down. Maybe Sweeney has developed and is That Guy as well as "all that" as a blocker. I'd just feel better about it if we'd actually SEEN this in PS or open practices. It's not that he was there and didn't, it's that he was ....injured again Outstanding post. To take a step, IMO, we need a TE where teams say "we've got to stop him from going off". We all hope Knox becomes that thing, but right now he is simply not a guy other teams fear.

Not that has been reported. Beane was very confident "we think he'll be signed very soon" (eg to a roster elsewhere)

I don't want to get into a dick-measuring contest (see what I did? heh) But I think it's plausible, given Josh develops as we all hope and becomes a star in the league for a long time, that at some point he will start to chafe and want more influence, especially if the team around him has talent gaps as the years go on.

I don't think this is what @SDS is asking about. He's asking about, your count says 45 posts, but you've been a member here since 2017 and actually have 4,045

I howled at this one. Five Reasons This Would Not Work: 1. Josh Allen is an escape artist. Would evade kidnap attempt and hurl cross-body TD pass to Stef Diggs. (Also Mitch Trubisky) 2. Would motivate Beas to work extra-hard to evade that coverage 3. Tre's been dealing with diaper contents for several years - he'd hose off and play 4. Tik-Tok Boy's Dances were motivational last time.....for the Bills 5. McDermott is so Hard-Core he would coach in a Man-Diaper and shoot an IV at halftime.

With respect to Cover_1 (and this seems like a solid body of work), most people seem to feel that Edmunds improved between Year 1 and Year 2 and then last year. So this may be the D equivalent of looking at Josh Allen's 3-year completion %, YPG, passer rating, and and sack % and judging accordingly. Or it may not, but year by year data might need to be looked at to rule that out.

I think the Pats did both. I think they did spygate/eavesdrop but it was effective for them BECAUSE they did such detailed scouting work. I also think the Bills got bitten on the ass because Reid and KC (both sides of the ball) did such a thorough scouting job on their playcalls and tendencies and tells that Spagnuolo and Bieniemy were able to exploit those and just pick them apart. I think the above is what McDermott meant when he said "we got outcoached in that game", though he wouldn't answer when asked a follow-up question about what that meant.

That's always the question when replacing a solid vet with a younger player, right? The Bills have several of those ?? on the roster besides Johnson for Marlow: -Isaiah McKenzie in the KR/PR role filled by all-pro Andre Roberts last season - Big Shoes -Tommy Sweeney apparently in the "in-line blocker/leak out as outlet receiver" role filled by Lee Smith last season -Sweeney in the apparent "sees the field every down, can catch and block" backup TE role filled by Tyler Kroft last season -Spencer Brown/Tommy Doyle in the backup OT role filled by Ty Nsekhe last season -[Someone among our young DE] in the "Run Plugger" role filled by Trent Murphy last season -? Basham and Obada in the "play inside or out" role filled by Q Jefferson last season -Dane Jackson in the backup/split time at #2 CB role filled by Josh Normal last season -some combination of Lewis, Griffin, and Wildgoose in the "what if both starting CB can't go?" role. I think the reason we don't hear so much stressing about this is: most of these are backup roles, and McDermott and Beane have built a certain "trust level" in their personnel decisions and ability to coach players up with the fans.

Well, first off, "Gunner" is a Thing on Punt returns as well - and I hope we see the other team punting a lot, and kicking off Not So Much. As far as "extinct", is the kick return extinct? There are only 6 KR who averaged more than 25 yds per return, with Andre Roberts leading the pack at 30. I'm not sure whether that tells the story though. I think the question is, how many of those returns were short of the endzone? The Bass-Master led the league last year with 101 KO and had 70% TB. That says that 30% of the time, there was a kick return against the Bills. The league average - I looked it up - is was 61.2% TB, meaning almost 40% of the time, there was a return. I dunno about your standards for "essential extinction" or how that might differ from actual extinction, but when something happens 40% of the time, I wouldn't describe it as extinct. Sounds to me like something a good team had better be prepared to defend against properly.