Hapless Bills Fan

TBH, not entirely. For example I read "Pass rush was not a concern, nor was players getting open. Josh simply was missing them. " from a very reasonable, knowledgeable poster. Now granted he posts off impressions watching the game the first time through and is open about saying so, but it has me wondering if he and I are watching the same game, because it's just not what I saw. There's some definite "Rashoman" vibe going down here. I've only gone through half the game in detail because the new gamepass interface SUCKS and not having all-22 SUCKS and nfl.com SUCKS for taking my money and not giving me the same product I paid for, but (for example) in the first half of 16 passes, I saw 2 throws where Allen had time and an open player and simply missed. I saw 3 throwaways under pressure and a batted ball. There were two bad decisions (the INT, and another play where Allen was hit as he threw), both under duress. There were 6 completions, and 5 of those completions were swing passes or checkdowns or quick fast passes. There was only one deep pass where Allen had time to let it develop. So is this 2018 Allen, no way - that guy never threw the ball away. Is Josh simply standing there in a clean pocket missing guys? Also no way, with the 2 exceptions noted above. Objective data towards the above, Allen is listed as 1.2 seconds pocket time vs 2.6 seconds last year on pro-football-reference; and elsewhere posted that he's faced one of the highest "pressure allowed" rates so far.

I'm saying like Pogo, that "we have met Nick Wright and he is Us" (at times)

Thank you. I wasn't sure what the reaction would be, but I've taken flack before for things that turned out to be mistakes so I figured I'd survive if it was negative, and it seemed like a better alternative to promote discussion than locking the game thread and starting a new one or just pruning all the crap. Took a bit of work though. This is an extreme take, but IMHO it's not that far off from about half a dozen I've seen scattered here and there - Allen has reverted to 2019 or 2018, he has completely lost his mechanics, confidence, and vision, he is under no pressure so there is no reason for this, etc etc etc. These IMHO are people who are stat surfing and not really watching the game carefully. Yes, exactly. People aren't getting angry or annoyed about reasoned criticism. In fact, most of those people also say that improvement is needed and that Josh hasn't played well.

It's a little hard to fathom why, if Allen has totally lost his mechanics, vision, and confidence, he completed some of the throws he has in fact hit the last 2 games and especially the Miami game.

To be fair, the OP didn't start this thread. I split it out from the WFT game thread because it was starting to overwhelm that discussion. It's one thing to have a little sidebar discussion here and there, but a major hot take that is drawing a lot of response probably deserves its own thread. I'm not surprised. When people say controversial stuff it often draws more attention and reactions than a measured reasonable response.

Myself, before trying to fix something, I think it's useful to decide what the problems actually are.

Yes, they can and sometimes are.

With all the talk about boosters, people who got the J&J shot are wondering "what about me?" https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=372783124503333&id=100053149454347 "Your Local Epidemiologist" does a great job collating the data to date, what we do and don't know.

I'm hampered by "No All-22" and the new Gamepass interface which, unless I'm missing something, has no ability to go directly to different plays. It sucks. That said, I'm halfway through a detailed re-watch of the game and I'm here to say that I see a BUTTLOAD of pressure still. There were 3 throw aways under pressure and a batted pass - that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half. Of the 16 throws, I consider Allen under pressure in half of them. Now I'll say right here that it's not the whole story - there were 2 high throws and a pick, and there was an additional throw I would call a bad decision. Two were not thrown under pressure and 2 were. So that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half. A number of the 7 completions lacked pressure only because they were quick passes. There was one completion on a deep pass. So I would say that while it wasn't the complete and total jailbreak of the Pitt game, there was still a lot of pressure and Allen wasn't running for his life trying to pass as much because he was either getting the ball out quickly, or he was just running. See, I disagree with a lot of the take here (see above). I think pass rush was still a concern, and I don't understand how someone could watch the game and think it wasn't. There were poor throws - a high throw and the pick - that were NOT thrown under pressure. Rashoman-like! Most of the first half completions had no pressure only because they were quick throws. I said elsewhere and will repeat here, one objective stat is the 'pocket time" metric on pro-football-reference. It was 2.6 seconds last year, and is 1.2 seconds so far this year. Pressure is an issue. Hopefully all the running we did this game will help. However....you may be "on" to something about the impact of Sanders. Diggs 13 receptions on 21 targets, 62% Beasley 12 receptions on 17 targets, 71% Sanders 6 receptions on 14 targets, 43% He's not being targeted more than Diggs or Sanders, but he's getting a lot of targets and catching less of them, and I would say that Allen's timing with him is just off.

This week, and to some extent last week

Haven't heard that last recently, but if you're watching the media and paying more attention to the pundits, I'll accept your better judgement. It's certainly been loudly predicted here by a good handful of chaps.

Welcome, Lana! Labs are great dogs, other than their tendency to clear the coffee table and the nightstand with that wagging "Otter Tail". Be prepared to swim with a stick from now on.

Of course, we aren't undefeated and the Demise of Josh Allen as a Top QB has been widely predicted. We'll see in a couple weeks.

Neither, he was said to have left the game the first time due to cramping and came out after halftime (presume he got IVs) but not sure he played. He played 61% of the snaps. I think they just wanted to get Tyrel Dodson some snaps and the game was 21-0 so why not?

I dunno about "unsure of himself" but he's definitely missing some throws he made last year. And, he made several "bad decison" throws in the Miami game. On the other hand I just re-watched and charted the 1st Q of the Dolphins game and I don't know where all these "wide open receivers" and "no pressure at all" I've seen some people talking about. I kind of feel like watching the first 2 Bills games is a "Rashoman" viewing where different people are watching the same game and coming away with different accounts, all of which we feel very certain about. Here's my breakdown of the first half: 1Q passes: 8. 4 complete - 3 no pressure, 1 pressure 4 incomplete: 2 poor throws - one high to a covered Diggs (no pressure), one a poor decision that was damned near picked (strong pressure, hit as he threw). 2 throw-aways under pressure So of the 8 passes, there was 1 that he should have completed and didn't There was 1 poor decision that he should have hung on to or thrown away and didn't. 2Q passes: 8. 3 complete, quick short passes 4 incomplete: 1 throwaway under pressure. 1 batted pass under pressure. 1 pass thrown high with enough time, 1 rushed throw 1 interception - threw slightly behind Diggs. So of the 8 passes, there was 1 that he should have completed and didn't and 1 poor decision (the INT). There were 3 throw aways/bats/rushed throws. Total in the first half: 2 passes he should have completed - had time and an open man - and didn't, 2 poor decisions under pressure one resulting in a pick. 4 throw-aways/batted balls under pressure. IMO we would never have seen the throw-aways in 2018 and seldom in 2019. We would also not have seen the quick short completions. Last year out of 16 passes, I would say there were 2, maybe 3, he would have hit last year that he missed Sunday. So instead of 7/16, we would have seen 9/16 or 10/16 which is better, but nowhere near last year's completion percentage. Is there room for improvement and need for improvement? Yes. But am I seeing OMG he's got lots of time and he's just missing guys right and left? No. Another telling stat: I looked up the "Pocket Time" stat in Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats. They define this as average time the QB had in the pocket between snap and throw, or snap and collapse of the pocket. In 2020: 2.6 seconds So far in 2021: 1.2 seconds I think it's possible that may have something to do with what we're seeing. PS this is a total PITA to do with the new GamePass interface that doesn't list the plays so I cant just click and go to that play. Grrrr.

Oh, for sure - preseason we were hearing a lot of "Josh Allen is God" "MVP" etc. I could be wrong, though, but I don't think the euphoric now-disillusioned types are the ones who are over-the-top critical now.

That was last week. Try to keep up. Now we think he can't play well, period, 'cuz he 's just not that good. We demand better because we deserve it! <--sar chasm

Oooh, Florio lays the smackdown: "After all, that’s a far better excuse for losing to the Patriots than saying, “They’re better than us and work harder than we do.”

Glad to know I'm not the only one Jonesing for the all-22

Obviously. That's not what I mean to suggest. If one is running a (1,1) set, one could have Diggs, Beasley, Davis or Kumerow, Knox, and Singletary or Moss. As long as it's a formation one runs as a passing play, one could manage to have Knox and Davis on one side. Or so it seems to me.

Heinicke says he should be the starter now. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/09/17/taylor-heinicke-believes-he-has-earned-the-right-to-start-the-rest-of-the-season/ https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/this-taylor-heinicke-stat-after-first-3-starts-for-wft-will-blow-your-mind/ar-AAODWED For anyone who wondered: Heineke graduated in 2015, but bounced around the league and wasn't signed by the Panthers until 2018. So he and McDermott do not overlap there at all. He was basically out of football in 2019 and until December 2020, when WFT rang him up out of engineering classes at Old Dominion.

Bubble Screens. Knox splits out wide enough to sell it. Both Davis and Kumerow are kickin' blockers for a wideout.

He has what it takes ....and a lot more https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/09/16/nathaniel-hackett-journey-from-doctor-to-dancer-to-top-head-coaching-candidate-daily-cover Give me the Cliff Notes

Media is saying he threw it, but it was clearly some kind of surprise party he walked into with his GF. You can see people arising from where they were crouched behind the sofas

This. Plus the lack of any type of consistent run game. Teams like the Chiefs (and Pittsburgh) can play dime against us all day or even 7 DBs, and not get burnt. Start breaking off some runs and a short quick passing game with bubble screens and swing passes, what other teams have to defend changes, and then what our receivers and OL have to overcome changes.