Hapless Bills Fan

Aikman was terribly annoying during the GB-Rams game. He was all over exculpating Stafford "he's bravely playing hurt something is wrong with him". News flash Aikman: he's not on the Ram's injury report, so if in fact he is playing hurt....that would be a violation of NFL rules. As far as Mac Jones, though, to be fair, it's not just his connection to Belichik. Brett Kollsman, who is explicitly NOT a Pats homer, did this film piece on Mac Jones that explains some of what Aikman, as a former great QB, is seeing:

A little point that was a 62 yd kickoff, meaning it was fielded on the 3 yd line. It might go into the EZ if not fielded, or it might go out of bounds or be downed by the other team just inside the goal line. People forget that not all kickoffs go into the EZ The overall point is valid that equating a mistake by Josh Allen and a kickoff mistake by McKenzie is a poor comparison.

It's a Damned Good Thing you're so ***** cute I found a picture of you

LOL I thought "overall special teams" covered that.

Oh, I have. Troy Aikman on TNF was pushing the narrative that Mac Jones is the greatest thing since sliced cheese. Have heard from some other talking heads too.

So stupid penalties, drops, and interceptions/fumbles Valid point. Certainly the Pats wins over the Jets, Falcons, and Titans exploited turnovers.

Perhaps you would find this less frustrating if you would care to explain, point by point, why you believe the Bills are a better team? Coach OC DC QB WR TE OL DL LB CB Safety Placekicker Punter Overall ST (didn't we already have a thread on this?) It's also possible that the weather will feature snow and strong winds - can you explain which team you believe this would favor and why?

Dude, if you want only a "Yes" or "No" answer, the correct course of action is for you to create a poll and lock the thread to discussion. Let me know if you want or need help in how to do that. Otherwise, discussion is the point of this board, and snarking at people to just give you "YES" or "NO" answers to questions they see as nuanced, is not appropriate.

I think this is a reasonable assessment. The Bills overall may have the more talented roster, but they aren't consistent in showing up on Sunday and they've allowed their offensive gameplans to become alarmingly unbalanced, which creates a defensive advantage for the opponent. It may come down to coaching, which might not go in the Bills favor.

It could say a lot of things, but fundamentally it will say that the Pats were the better team on that field that Sunday.

The thing is, we've been doing the same thing with the same players and expecting different results. When we signed Breida, I think we were all "OK, Change of Pace back that will give us a wider run play vocabulary"....then we see him inactive week after week. When we ran back basically the same OL except for drafting a couple of talented but raw OLmen, I was like "OK, they must have decided the run scheme was at fault so we're going to try to address this schematically (oh, and maybe Forrest Lamp will overcome his injuries with our S&C staff and be an upgrade)" Then Lamp is IR'd/released and we make no changes Then we seem to be running the same plays with the same run/pass imbalance from shotgun and under center. It makes me want to thump my head against the wall The best explanation I've come up with is that Daboll honestly doesn't believe we need a run game. He may pay lip service when forced, but he really believes that there is no offensive downside to coming out of the tunnel with a game plan to sling the ball 50 times and run 5, when the opponent knows that's what you're going to do and has schemed up exotic pressures to take advantage of that tendency.

Correct. Last year's box scores mean nothing. Correct. Betting choices mean that's how Joe Average is willing to risk his rent money on a bet, which has to do with perception and not reality. If you've run out of actual counterpoints and people are not accepting the points you offer, it's time to agree to disagree and move on.

I think the RBs, the OL, and the blocking by receivers have worked together to create a mess. Turner of Cover1 somewhat alludes to this in a recent piece he did called "Breida Szn?" He points out that while the Bills OL RB is not always strong and well-coordinated, there are yards to be had - but (he's singling out Moss, but true of Motor as well), our backs are too slow to read and react to what's going on with the OL. I think Turner exculpates the OL a bit much in a couple of his examples where the lineman clearly allowed the defender to get off his block, but the overall point is sound - it's in part mental processing, and in part just lack of quickness in executing cuts, and the result is that more of our runs get stuffed or only gain 1-2 yds where a more decisive and faster back would be able to gain yards. To me it's sort of a "perfect storm" - an OL that struggles to create displacement, making reads muddled; combined with young backs who struggle to decode reads that aren't clean and lack quickness/speed to get to the holes (and get to the edge) if they aren't decisive.

That's a fair take, but I think it's also fair to point out that whether by design or personal wiring, Allen often seems to read plays deep to shallow and hesitate to take an easy throw to the sidelines or the flat. At times, it's pretty clear that an immediate throw would result in good YAC while a hesitation allows coverage to close up. It's also a point that except for Knox and to some extent Gabe Davis, the Bills receivers are not large bruisers who can gain YAC against smaller corners.

How are the Bills a better team top to bottom? If you go over to ItalianBills thread on position group to position group breakdown, the consensus appraisal seems to be very close talent wise. The Bills should win why? Because you think they have more talent? Talent is as talent does - the Bills loss to the Jags showed that if nothing else. No one can have a reasonable discussion with you if you dismiss any counterpoints anyone makes with "Quit making excuses The Bills should win". You just make yourself sound like a Bot.

Well. There's no question in my mind that individuals on our OL have objectively just played less well than last year. Last year Dawkins looked like a franchise LT, worth every penny we paid him. Last year Williams looked like he'd "solved" the RT position. Both have played like wet paper at times this year. Interesting question about uncalled holding penalties last season. I found data at https://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties.html?yr=2021&sort=oh If I crunched it correctly, last year there were 22.8 holding penalties per week. This year, 34.8. That's a huge increase. Bills are currently at 14 holding penalties or 1.27/game vs. last season 1 per game. That doesn't sound like a big increase, but of course the line adjusts its play to avoid being penalized, so you could have a point. I tend to think that linemen tend to hold when they're getting their asses whupped, though, and to my eyes that's just happening more often especially on the tackles. Allen has good protection at times, and at times he pushes it too far - he has a throw for decent yards he could take in 2.6 seconds but he waits for a play that takes 3.5 seconds to develop and the line breaks down at 3 seconds. FWIW, Pro-football reference gives a "pocket time" stat defined as time from snap, until either the ball is thrown or "pressure collapses the pocket". The median value is 2.4 (range 2.2-2.6). The Bills are at 2.4. I have some skepticism about their advanced stats since @BarleyNY pointed out an error early on in the year, but this suggests to me that perhaps perception doesn't match reality when it comes to evaluating the Bills OL play. (Last year the Bills were among the league's best at 2.6.) I'm far from a run blocking expert - some on here know in 2018 I spent a miserable year trying to figure out what the Bills were actually trying to do with their run blocking and begging for help (usually the help amounted to "well I think it's supposed to be this, but it's actually a total mess"). But to my perception, the OL doesn't deserve the share of the blame it gets for run issues. Part of the problem is how big of a "tell" our formation is. We pass 70% of the time from shotgun (this is down from 75% a few games ago). We run 70% of the time from under center (again, down from 75% a few weeks ago). I'm going to guess that down and distance skew that even more. (We're actually more successful running from shotgun and passing from under center in terms of Y/A - just because of the novelty I guess.) When we're running from under center with Motor and Moss, they don't have the speed to get to the edge so our vocabulary is limited.

How are the Bills a "much better team" than NE? More fun fact: Bills currently tied with Cowboys for 2nd in the league on offense (29.6 ppg). NE and Colts are 1.6 points behind, with 28 PPG Bills (2nd) currently just behind the Patriots (1st) for points given up on defense (15.8 vs 16.5) When a team has 1 more win, a better w/l percentage, is slightly better for points given up and slightly worse for points scored, I don't know how you can make the argument they're a much better team. Do we have the potential to be a much better team, I do believe that. But to date, we have not demonstrated that potential on a consistent basis. And I do surely hope the team does not think as you do, because it seems to me part of the problem is at times we come out believing we're the better team and we just have to show up. And then we get punched in the mouth.

Fun Fact. Allen is 3rd in the league for Air yards/completion at 6.9. He is 30th in the league for YAC/completion. Last season he was 7th and 24th, respectively - with 0.5 yards per completion less than this season. Over a few hundred completions, that adds up. If you look at Beasley's YAC this year, it's down by 0.6 ypc, but my point is it's not just Beasley. Diggs is often down. The completions Allen is having to take are often shorter, and against tighter coverage than last year. Morse has been our best OLman most of the year. The problem is he's not a power guy as a run blocker. The Bills need to make up their mind what kind of run game they want, and go out and get the OLmen to run it.

C'mon Man. Allen isn't 6th in the league in passing yards because he gets no protection from his OL. When a 4 man rush is getting to the QB, there's a reason, and it has to do with perception of threat to run.

I don't think it's a "right team" issue. Something is up - he didn't seem to regain his speed after the calf injury last season, maybe there is permanent damage Or maybe it's a different issue.

There's no question that playing in Belichick's system helped Brady succeed his first years, but to be fair to Brady his fierce competitiveness and desire to improve honed his skills. And it pains me to say that, but True is True.

Not wrong. Look, Mac Jones is having a very solid rookie season. He's making good decisions, he's doing what he's asked to do, he's making some good throws downfield. His stats across the board are stats a good team with a solid run game and great D can win with. But I turn on the Patriots game and there's Troy Aikman talking about how no rookie has ever done what Mac Jones has done and it's just so far over the top that unless you're an Uber fan it's like "seriously?". Because this is what his passing chart looked like, and again, not to take a thing away from Mac Jones who is playing well and doing what he's asked to do - there's nothing wrong with this passer chart for a rookie - but the over-praiseful narrative forces me to agree. It's just too much.

And assuming that's how it goes, that's really a good class.

That's actually quite revisionist history. In his rookie year, Mayfield came in Game 3 and played very well. The team went 7-7, but Mayfield threw 27 TD to 14 INTs, on a season-adjusted basis would have thrown for >4200 yds, 7.66 ypa. The problem was the defense was a sieve. Mayfield was considered to have validated the Browns decision to draft him #1 and the sky's the limit next year. In fact, that viewpoint was so strong that he was reputedly allowed to influence the firing of Hue Jackson/Todd Haley and replacing him with Freddie Kitchens as OC and Gregg Williams as coach, then the hiring of Kitchens as HC next season. Kitchens was pretty much over his head, and Mayfield regressed badly. Lamar Jackson took over Week 10 of his rookie season and helped the Ravens win 6 of 7 games with a close loss to KC. Then in 2019 with the offense retooled to suit him, he was NFL League MVP. Calling the League MVP an "OK QB" is Some *****. Allen was regarded as a a wild man who showed flashes and amazing entertainment potential until 2020.

Uh-Oh - Bill Belichick effusively praising Josh Allen. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bill-belichick-showers-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-with-praise/ar-AARg1cF Typically when Belichick praises ya, it means he thinks he owns your soul.