Hapless Bills Fan

@Coach Tuesday has a point here. This seems to have become a discussion of Cheatriots Past, or as Mark Sanchez said "I would NEVER say they Cheat! They're just relentless in the pursuit of a competitive advantage! And on this note, I'm going to start a new thread for the purposes of game week discussion. This thread will stay open, and any discussion far afield from the GDT will be split over here.

Sorry, sorry but he did such a good job summarizing the arguments pro and con that I thought it deserved a shout out https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/voice-of-the-fan-are-you-a-yay-or-naysayer/article_e59e8214-52e0-11ec-b920-1ff39e30734e.html That's about it. Good summary, @Kelly the Dog

I understand, but MJ is Michael Jordan in many people's minds. Yes, Jordan wore 23 not 10 but still.

Oh, that's bunk, Belichick will have the team doing wet ball drills all week. He probably has the crew keep the wet balls in an ice chest, or has the players soak their hands in ice water then go catch. I'm sure the Bills practice with wet balls but I don't know if they do it to the same level as Belichick's teams.

Good post. and good point on the consistent, positive rushing yards and the ball control offense. My point was that where I think the Bills struggle most, in stopping the run, is with stopping an elite RB such as King Henry, or Jonathan Taylor (whom Poyer described as the hardest to tackle). Both of them are right at the top of the Next Gen Stats Fastest Ball Carriers list, and they're beasts too, especially Henry at 6'3" 247. Let me see if I can articulate what I perceive. Coach McDermott might disagree, but by and large, I would say the Bills have a "skills" defense. It's based on everyone doing their 1-11th, being in the right place at the right time and doing their job. But 1:1 with a physical freak like Taylor or Henry, we struggle - they can break tackles on us, Hyde can have perfect position and perfect form on an open field tackle and Henry can knock him flat and run over him. And one miss, one bad angle, and they're gone. We don't have the speed to run them down. I don't want to sound like I'm taking the Pats run game lightly. I think Harris and Stevenson are talented backs running behind a strong OL on well-designed plays. But they're guys that we can manage if our defense plays technically sound defense within our scheme. Minor nit but I think NFL charting calls a run >20 yds "long".

He's signed for the next two years with $9M cap hits, of which $6.75 and $6.35 are cash (savings if cut). https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/star-lotulelei-12294/ I don't like the opt-out followed by the sick-out, but Harrison Phillips is an UFA next season, and I have to say Harry has NOT developed as we'd hoped after his rookie year/early second season

Great play on words in the headline Fromm Buffalo With Love

Well, yes but....let it be said, I do put more weight in Chris Simms opinions than most of us here

Just a different POV a bit, and I understand where you're coming from because I, too, felt that the players were to some extent "reading their clippings" and phoning it in. I think McDermott knew it too - after the game he said "you've probably heard the same thing (about being humble and hungry) and you're tired of hearing it, too" or something to that effect. The Bills were sloppy, and it showed with 118 yds on 12 freakin' penalties. Unnecessary roughness penalties involved Tre White, Dion Dawkins, AJ Klein, and Tremaine Edmunds. 2 of them are playing on their 2nd contracts, one is a vet, one in his 4th year. These aren't "young players" who need to learn The Jags were held to 9 points, 219 yds and only converted 2 of 13 3rd downs. (Guess how they got a bunch of their 16 first downs). The D did OK. But as a contrary point - there is something to be said for pointing a big finger at coaching/game plan 1) If the players were reading their press clippings and the coaches sensed a lack of focus - let's just say some of the best coached teams in the league don't seem to have that problem. So were the coaches to point a finger at the players in their minds, I would ask "how many fingers point back at you?" 2) We were essentially playing backups at 4 positions on offense - TE, LG, RG, and RT. Yet we went into the game with a plan for a pass-heavy spread offense that had NOT succeeded in Game 1 or 2 with that personnel grouping at OL (why a change on OL was made and 2 of them became the backups at those positions) 3) Urban Meyer, in his presser that week, called us a "spread offense" and essentially as one of our regulars said "sketched out on a cocktail napkin how to neutralize our offense". If there's one offense Meyer would know how to shut down - a spread offense would be it. 4) We only ran 14 times - even though it was a tie game (or we had a lead) through most of the game, until late in the 4Q (and see point 3) 5) We had no option for outside runs since our only COP back, Breida, was inactive. Now - all that said, if Josh doesn't throw a pick on 3rd and 3 at the JAX 25, or fumble on 3rd and 2 at the JAX 37, maybe it's a tie game or a lead and a win. And of course there were plenty of other mistakes. But when you combine an offensive game plan that plays into the opponent's understanding and ability to scheme, then play backups at several key positions yet make no apparent alterations in the game plan to attempt to account for this, and add no attempt at a balanced attack despite a close game - I think you have to say there's "plenty of blame to go around" So I would say it's not just the young players who need to learn something.

Your assessment is....Logical 😇 The thing is, even some guys who are normally pretty good at game breakdown and strengths and weaknesses (like Chris Simms) are heavily biased pro Pats. I don't *think* he has a script, but I do think he doesn't necessarily look under the hood too far. For example, even when they couldn't run the ball (or weren't) last season, Daboll trotted out a run-heavy game plan against the Pats on a windy day with a worse weather forecast, in Orchard Park last year (first game). We ran for 190 yds that game and only 23 of them were Allens. We had 38 rush attempts to 18 pass attempts. Previous game 27 rush, 43 pass attempts. Next game 19 rush, 38 pass attempts. And, we just had 32 rush attempts to 28 pass attempts against N'Orleans. While you couldn't call it a splendidly successful run game, we generated 3.5 ypa, which moves the chains. Allen was the 2nd leading rusher, however the long rush was 15 yds for Motor - so it was a consistent run game, it wasn't just 1-2 big gains. New Orleans was ranked as a good defense before the last 2 games and is still 1st against the rush.

Whoever they are, I believe their players are soaking it all in. Their head coach said in the press conference (when asked if he was pointing out the Pats standing and recent record), something to the effect of "thanks to you guys and to social media I think they're informed on these points" heh heh

I think it's the "confirmation bias" thing. Analytics guys were very down on Allen coming into the draft because of his low completion percentage and perceived inaccuracy, and his background coming from a small school where he played a low level of competition (but also, surrounded by a low level of talent. his BEST WR and TE are PS/fringe NFL players) There are a number of guys who played at a low level and then had 1 good year, then got "solved" and regressed, so I guess it's not too weird that people who had the "confirmation bias" that Allen was no good to start with, are continually trying to fit him into that model.

This is literally the forecast for Monday on Weather.com (the Weather Channel) at the moment. "The Weather Channel now says a high of 53 with temps falling and a rain/snow mix with winds at 26 mph for the game! It will be a great game!!!" Currently Weather Channel still says pretty much the same thing: High of 52, low of 26, 82% chance of rain/snow mix and 26 mph winds (falling through the game) Whether the game time weather is good or horrible all depends upon when that stuff arrives and how quickly it moves through.

That's exactly what both Daboll and McDermott mean when they say that ball security is a team effort and that all of those INTs are not on Josh. Pretty sure there's another one where Beasley didn't do what Josh expected him to (can't tell you which of them was at fault). Then there are the ones where his arm was hit, as in the recent game Dawkins had his guy and was doing what the OL is coached to do (ushering him into the backfield) and Josh saw that and thought he had time (but Dawkins let him get off the block and get to Allen). It's always going to be a judgement call for Allen, he needs to trust his guys and take time to do some of what we love him to do, but not too much trust or too much time. Bradshaw is historically a real Richard Head about Allen and the Bills. Last year after the Titans game, where Allen admittedly played badly, Bradshaw threw out the previous 4 games, disregarded the injury report and the linebacker brace on the kids arm, and sneered "a 50% passer, that's all he'll ever be". When he was forced to praise Allen towards the end of the season, he acted as though the words burnt his throat.

I stand corrected on that point, thank you. However, as you recommend "Google is my Friend", I point out to you that there is still a difference between a GLOBAL weather model and a LOCAL weather model. https://windy.app/blog/what-is-a-weather-forecast-model-guide-on-forecast-models-all-around-the-world.html And you stand corrected (or should) on the point that on Thursday, and even Friday, no model (certainly no global model) is accurate in predicting the exact arrival time of a weather system passing through a specific location or the exact location of a weather event forecast to occur somewhere in >100 mile band. Nope, I'm not a meteorologist, but I have decades depending on the best weather models I could get my hands on to keep my ass and my family safe, and that was a lesson we learned early on and kept learning: you can't rely on a model for the timing and exact location of a weather event more than 24-36 hrs out (48 hrs is starting to be predictive). "You can't fly the forecast, you have to fly the weather you find" The current forecast seems rain/mix Monday, trailing off during the day (21% at game time) and 21 mph winds dropping off during the game. What the model seems to be doing is saying the weather will arrive later, but move through faster. Could there be a "wind event" with 55 mph gusts in the area, sure, but that's sometime between Sunday and Tuesday, depending upon when the front actually moves through and the specifics of the location. I'm outta here, if you want to keep on keeping on with the 55 mpg or 60 mph winds and all and with insisting that the global Euro model can accurately predict thelocal weather in OP on Monday night, as of Thursday (or Friday), You do You

LOL there's a freakin' entire THREAD about it, started by Virgil last night. So what do we have to try to do to beat NE? I kind of gather all they have to do is show up.

Jacksonville did not "send the house". That's not how they beat us. Allen killed teams who "sent the house" last season. He's been blitzed far more selectively this season, for that reason. Urban Meyer sketched out on a cocktail napkin (as someone here said) before the game how to beat us and that's what they did. The Colts aren't allowing that they're "mediocre". They've won 6 of their last 9 games, two losses came in OT and the third was to the Bucs, by 1 score. They have a good coach who had a chip on his shoulder about being beat in the playoffs last season, and who has his team fired up for a push. They have the top rushing attack in the league in y/a (3 or 4 in yards). They're 4rd overall on PPG. They are "in the hunt" with the same number of wins and one less loss as the last WC team, and it's not out of the question they could take the division with Henry out. This is far from one of the biggest games in Bills history, although it is a critical game for this season. This is a good forum to learn something about football other than "bringing the house" "beat the blitz" cliches

There’s some rational basis to Chris Simm’s point. The Bills are able to shut down a superb run game by focusing on it, as they did to the Ravens in the playoffs last year. But when a team like the Titans or the Colts has a superb strong physical run game, AND an accurate quick passing game supported by play action, the Bills defense can be “had”, as they were against the Titans and the Colts this season. They somewhat sell out to stop the run, to the detriment of the pass defense. The question is whether the Patriots run game is really on the same level as Henry with the Titans or Jonathan Taylor with the Colts? They have a good run game - but they’re further down the NFL in ypg and ypa. So I don’t think the Bills have to sacrifice their pass D as much to stop them. And I could be wrong, but I think both Tannehill and Wentz have more escapability and ability to gain yards with their feet at need than Mac Jones does.

I thought Webb pretty much looked better in preseason It’s hard to remember when we get feel-good stories about Webb playing safety on the Scout team, but he was a 3rd round draft pick in his day

I just went to YouTube for Chris Simms and Mike Florio’s preview of the Pats at Bills game Geeze Wheeze I learned that we might as well not show up. We can’t run the ball, we’re too one dimensional on Offense. We get all worried when we have to stop the run and then we can’t stop the pass and Mac Jones is going to carve us up. Guess that’s the ballgame then. But Simms - we’re watching you - you don’t get to come back and be all over Josh after we win. Breathe, Virgil. It’ll be OK. As far as being dissed by FOX or GMFB or Simms or anyone else - Buffalo -vs- Everybody I Like It Like That

I got to say it, I think the Saints offense looked better with Siemian.

Yeah, if they didn’t have bad offense they’d have no offense at all

That had better be an incomplete forward pass

Why are the receivers slipping all over the place inside, in a dome

Wow, I had no idea in this day and age a model would be price-prohibitive. It seems we agree though, that this far out we really can’t tell when the weather will arrive. I will say for what it’s worth, that we in MO typically get weather that shows up in Ithaca 2-4 days later….and for whatever it’s worth it has been warmer, sooner, than forecast.