Agreed.
I’ll need to figure out how to verbalize, but I’m wondering if the data that is driving the analytics is skewed by teams that were truly confident they had a good plan for that game situation and that team, so they succeeded more often.
But looked at abstractly just as down, distance, field position, game situation etc and going for it based on probabilities - perhaps that leads some teams that do not have as good of a play or personnel advantage to take a risk they should not.
I don’t know if that makes sense.