thebandit27

No offense: Do you honestly think that they’d show a hot pursuit of a guy that they didn’t land, let alone one that went to a divisional foe? Indeed. Fundamentals.

Admittedly I’m reading the tea leaves here, but the sense that I got was that there’s an air of “we’re not the same old Bills. Players want to come here now. More than they want to go elsewhere. We don’t have to play coy to get our guys anymore.”

FA was even more “leaky” than the draft this year FWIW. Addison, Diggs, and the E. Sanders pursuits were out there really early.

“In order for a WR to help us he’s got to catch the football.” Follows the theme of this offseason: correcting obvious deficiencies in technical ability. They missed a lot of tackles last season, so they signed guys that simply don’t miss tackles. They dropped an absurd percentage of passes last season, so they’re looking for guys that secure the football.

Nope, you missed it. Actually look at the numbers and draw a real conclusion. Brady had a season that was nearly statistically identical to 2013–when he was in his prime. But even that isn’t the point. The point was that when looking at the questions I asked you didn’t worry about the facts; you immediately tried to apply context to the situation. It’s almost as if you believe that the raw data don’t really tell the whole story. And that was the crux of my very first response to you.

I’m stating it more as “he had a legitimate chance”. And he did. It was a one-score game and that same drive ended with a 4-and-out from inside the 5. It’s fine if people don’t agree, but to frame it as some kind of preposterous notion (which you may not be doing) is unreasonable IMO. I’m sorry but I don’t think it’s ridiculous to point out that he missed the final quarter of a one-score game that ended in the same score and involved a 4-and-out inside the 5 on the drive he was injured. As I said to Mango above; you may feel that 16-10 Pats****** was etched in stone at that point; I think it’s altogether reasonable to believe 17-16 Bills was a possibility if Allen didn’t get hurt. It’s not intended to prop him up artificially; it’s simply an acknowledgment that a guy that lead a bunch of 4th quarter comebacks didn’t get the chance to do it in that game. I’ll leave it at that.

The simple point that folks are apparently really upset with is that he didn’t get the opportunity to win that game in the 4th quarter, hence my statement about his record. And the whole discussion just goes to prove my point that when someone tries to put a statistic that doesn’t seem positive for Allen into context it’s an excuse, but point out a statistic that reflects positively on him and there’s an uproar over it. Um, you’ve been wrong plenty of times, and I can just as easily say that without the holding penalty they’re inside the 30. We watched the same game. The point here is really simple: they had a chance to win the game with a single score in the 4th quarter. Allen didn’t get the chance, which is why I made the statement about him being 10-4 in games he started and finished—which is true. I honestly don’t understand why there are a select few folks that are indignant over it.

He put together a TD drive to get them back in striking distance and was putting together another deep drive when he got hurt. My point here is quite simple: there’s no reason to believe that he didn’t have a legitimate chance to win that game had he not been injured.

J. Lohr makes a darn fine Paso Robles as well.

He was a huge reason that we were behind, absolutely. He was also a huge part of why it was a 6-point game and we were heading deep into Pats****** territory when he got scummed. I think it’s plenty fair to say that a guy that thrived in the 4th quarter and RZ all season could’ve pulled that game out (as he did in Pittsburgh). Not would have for sure, but saying that he could have shouldn’t result in “rawwwr excuses!!1!1!1!1” type of backlash IMO.

Selective memory? There were offsetting fouls on the play Congratulations! You’ve just realized why the statement “10-4 in games he started and finished” was qualified the way it was!

Should I assume that he would’ve performed worse than Barkley? And again: not the point. We can debate the merits of the stat, or we can assume that they track it consistently for all QBs/WRs. The thing that I come back to regarding Allen’s inaccuracy is the on-target percentage—it seems to mesh with the eye test. He’s 21st, which I think we all agree isn’t good enough, but I think we similarly agree that it’s not close to the “can’t-hit-the-broadside-of-a-barn” characterization that some folks attribute to him. As I always say about Allen: I’m not going to polish apples; he’s got work to do. The game has to slow down for him, and he’s got to do a better job of knowing when not to go hero-balling. I also believe that he’s closer to being The Guy than many people recognize.

Wow did you miss the point wildly. The point is exactly that: you can cite whatever statistics you like, but without context they can be manipulated to say whatever you like. As for the first NE game, please. They had just scored their first TD on the previous drive and were marching into NE territory when Josh got a cheap-shot. The ensuing play was a DPI that lead to a 4-and-out from Inside the 5. The idea that one of the best red zone QBs (and one of the best 4th Q QBs) in the game wouldn’t have scored the go-ahead TD there is questionable at best.

He probably missed his birthday because he’s sO iNAcCuRatE

Talk about a horrendously ridiculous non-sequitur—well done even for this board! The kid scored more TDs than all but 5 other NFL players. He went 10-4 in games he started and finished. He’s 18th in TDs per pass and 21st in on-target throw percentage, and yet there are people that proclaim him as somehow brutally inaccurate (not true). His WRs were literally the worst group of pass catchers (in terms of drop percentage) in the league, and the worst of any group over the past 10 years. Somehow pointing out that an average performance would’ve crested his completion percentage above 60 makes him Jamarcus Russell? ? News flash: it’s okay to look at his performance honestly. You don’t have to stake a position and then back your way into defending it. And yes, statistics need context if you want to understand what they’re telling you. If box scores are all that matters then 10-6 with 29 TDs should make you extremely happy... For an example of context... Who threw for more TDs per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady? Who threw more INTs: Allen or Tom Brady? Who threw for a higher on-target percentage: Allen or Tom Brady? Who had a higher yards per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

Again, had his WRs merely been average in terms of drop percentage, the 8 fewer drops would’ve put him at 60.5% for the season. So I would say that it’s not a huge difference.

I absolutely love that anything negative about Josh is a “fact” while anything that provides context is an “excuse” ?

6th...in total TDs...laffin right back

Since you brought up Brady: Who had a higher passes-on-target percentage in 2019: Brady or Allen? No cheating.

So for a 3rd time in this thread, I’ll ask...with all this analysis, tell me: if Buffalo’s WR/TE group had a league-wide average percentage of drops last season, with absolutely no other changes, what would Allen’s completion percentage have been? The facts actually aren’t on your side here. You’re betting on a regression from Allen combined with zero improvement from the pass catching group. 6th in total TDs 10-4 in games he started and finished

Actually, as I previously laid out, the only hope that you have is for Allen to regress and for his WRs to continue to be the worst group in the NFL in catch percentage.

Well, that’s not good. Pretty dumb, Ed. Good thing the team brought in Vernon Butler and Quentin Jefferson and have Harrison Phillips coming back for when Oliver gets suspended.

Last year? Yes. And hence Twist would lose that bet.

Two things here: 1) he’s never eclipsed 57%...until he did it last year in the NFL 2) don’t be so sure you’d win. As I said earlier: all that had to happen was for his pass catchers to be average in drop percentage and he’d have been at 60.5% in 2019. Instead they were dead last.

If you’re Green Bay, there’s absolutely no way that you trade him.