thebandit27

You mean to tell me that the reason that Brees has become the most accurate QB ever is because he was a 60.4% passer as a senior? Do you likewise mean to tell me that Matt Ryan is on your list because his 59% completions as a senior are hugely different from Allen’s 56%? If anything, what the guys you’ve mentioned show is that it’s actually quite typical to see a major increase in completion percentage from college to the pros. It’s almost like guys with talent that are coachable get better with better coaching...

Absolutely. That’s basically the central thesis in Gladwell’s Outliers. I mean, sure, if literally everything else (effort, quality of instruction, circumstances, etc) is equal, then natural talent will win out, but that’s almost never the case. Reality is that it’s a combination of factors. Drew Brees didn’t become the most accurate passer in history because he was a natural (quite the opposite actually); he did it because he spent hours upon hours rebuilding, refining, tweaking, adjusting, and honing his upper and lower body mechanics. Same can be said for Brady and his deep passing. He was never a great downfield passer at Michigan; he developed those skills. If you ask Brady, Belichick, or House the one thing that sets him apart from others, it’s the literal obsession that he has with being great. Take something as simple as nutrition: most athletes that take it seriously curtail unhealthy foods and eat clean. Brady is so crazy about it that he won’t eat nightshades. Is that the difference? Most likely not, but the combined effect of that mindset toward all-things-performance is what makes the difference.

For everyone who doesn’t remember it perfectly (as I didn’t), that Beasley throw in the 3rd quarter was absolutely incredible: https://mobile.twitter.com/22Yardbarker/status/1229419140911374337?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-23221431772577597.ampproject.net%2F2005151844001%2Fframe.html https://mobile.twitter.com/22Yardbarker/status/1229418445642641408?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-23221431772577597.ampproject.net%2F2005151844001%2Fframe.html

I would like to know what can’t be taught? Because there are a multitude of examples of current NFL QBs that have been coached up dramatically in areas where Allen is deficient.

Looks like it’s “between 2 and 4 players” with unlimited accrued seasons.

I’d have to look but I think PS eligibility is no longer an issue. I think anyone can go there now.

I think that Boehm beats out Bates. Bates was absolutely atrocious at tackle in week 17 against lower-tier starters, so the idea that he could play OT in a pinch took a hit for me. He’s strictly an interior guy IMO, and at that I think Boehm is a better player. Roster-wise, it’ll be interesting to see if they drop down to 8 OLmen on the 53. On one hand, the 8th-active OL guy mandate on game days means you’d want to have an extra or two around. On the other, that you can promote 2 players per game to the 55 makes me think that they could keep an extra 2 OLmen on the PS and go that route.

I don’t think they gave Spain a new 3-year deal just to bench him. I don’t think Bates makes the 2020 roster

Apparently it was one week prior against the Vikings (and it was Marcus Murphy not Foster): https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2018/9/26/17902834/nfl-week-3-worst-call-of-the-week-forward-pass-or-fumble-for-josh-allen

The rules say it’s an incomplete pass; the officials, however, ruled the exact same play as a Josh Allen fumble in Green Bay in 2018.

Nsekhe allowed zero sacks in 358 snaps in 2019. He easily outplayed Ford and was taking over the lion’s share of the snaps when he got hurt against Miami. I believe Ford will be the starter at RT, but if it goes on performance he needs to get a LOT better to beat out Nsekhe. Feliciano is highly overrated IMO. He was better than anticipated, but he’s a middling guard who isn’t good in pass protection. Williams is a total wildcard. He was an all pro RT before his injury, but he’s proven almost nothing at guard, so I don’t see him starting camp ahead of any of Long, Boehm, or even Boettger inside. I expect we’re looking at Dawkins-Spain-Morse-Mongo-Ford again, but I wouldn’t say I’m thrilled with the right side.

That, and our WRs created absolutely no separation from their press coverage.

Yeah but what do you know about it?

There’s a strange aura in this thread... ...it’s like an apparition of a former special teams ace is in here...

Most of that is perfectly reasonable. But you definitely see folks in this very thread saying things like “dead last in accuracy” etc. And let’s remember how the current discussion in which I’m involved got started: I asked where a poster found certain data. Not only was that never answered (beyond “find it yourself by searching through all of my previous posts”) but it apparently was nefarious enough to incite vitriol from a mod ?

No, I don’t think PFF is throwing darts. I have my reservations about their methodology, but they’ve got a system and people seem to respect it. All I’m asking for is the raw data that Twist flatly stated way back. I’d like to see the reference that shows clean-pocket passing and catchable pass percentage are the two key indicators of a franchise QB, and I’d like to see the data that shows that Allen is deficient in those areas. I searched around and haven’t found that data; my previous endeavors unearthed the ANY/A and TD% study. Personally, I like to see all the data and understand if there’s “one metric to rule them all” (aside from winning). Again, I’m not going to polish an apple. Allen’s got work to do. What I always find ridiculous are the extremes that people will go to when talking about him. The idea that he’s horribly inaccurate just isn’t true. He needs to keep improving, but 21st in on-target percentage isn’t exactly the ?-show that some folks want to proclaim.

Ok, so you make a blanket statement with no supporting evidence and it’s everyone else’s job to substantiate it? I mean, I posted 2 articles that discuss at length the correlation between ANY/A and TD% and winning, and I accompany that with the actual numbers. You’ve provided neither a reference nor the relevant statistics. I’m 100% sure that you know it’s impossible to have any credibility that way. That’s rich. I’m “never right”? We’ve entered crazy town.

That’s passing “grade” not accuracy. And if you can be bothered to post an infographic out of snarkiness, you can post a link that you apparently can find quite easily since you’ve posted it so often over the last few months. You made the statement, I’m simply asking you to back it up.

Actually, what I’m saying is that you’re looking 6+ years down the road to see who has become a franchise QB based upon stats in the first 2 years, which I believe is flawed. And you still haven’t provided any reference for why those 2 statistics you cited supposedly correlate to becoming a franchise QB. Sports Info Solutions is the outfit that provides their data to Pro Football Reference. I find it interesting that you trust their analytics when you’ve talked about how Allen is one of the least accurate QBs in the game and doesn’t throw “catchable passes”. Why is this interesting? Because according to PFR, Allen had an on-target percentage of 73.2, which ranked 21st in the league and was a mere 2.8% behind league MVP Lamar Jackson and 1.5% behind Aaron Rodgers. As for accuracy from a clean pocket, here’s an article that cites Allen as completing 65% of his passes from a clean pocket: https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/1/3/21048726/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-playoffs-wild-card-texans Maybe you’re not the person who should so flippantly claim that others aren’t understanding the data...

Oh, so percentages no longer reflect the number of times that a TD is thrown per pass attempt? Have you looked at their respective career arcs in these particular stats? I

Peyton Manning years 1-2: 5.9 ANY/A 4.7 TD% Tom Brady years 2-3 (since he didn’t play in year 1): 5.47 ANY/A 4.55 TD% Drew Brees years 2-3 (since he didn’t play in year 1): 3.43 ANY/A 3.15 TD% Obviously QBs never improve after year 2 of starting, that’s why those 3 will never make it in the NFL.

I’m asking you to cite the reference for your statement that those two statistics are the ones that define a franchise QB. And I think you’re going off a flawed data set if the idea is to compare Allen after two seasons to QBs that have had 6+ seasons in the NFL. If you limited the analysis to QBs after their first 450 attempts (or something) and compared them, you’d have a more comparable data set. And no, it doesn’t “prove” anything.

It’s Chris Mohr

Well nobody said he doesn’t need to improve, but that’s quite a jump to say that he’s “mediocre” in TD% (since he was 18th in 2019) but “dreadful” in ANYA (where he was 23rd).

Care to reference where you picked up that those two statistics were the most critical? Because I’ve seen studies that ANY/A and TD% were the two statistics most closely correlated with winning. https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/ https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell