JESSEFEFFER

I think it is rather unusual to have a QB coach that never played QB in either the NFL or at the collegiate level. Given the need to assess and infuse new talent into the position and develop it, maybe even nurture it, I am left to wonder if Hackett is the right man for that particular job. Most of us are thinking that the success or failure in the selection and development of the new talent will ultimately decide Marrone's coaching fate. Ironically enough for me to suggest, but I think it sounds like a job suited for Chan Gailey or at least someone with a background like his. He's never had a franchise talent to work with and has always made do with trying to get the best QB play from those he had around and mostly succeeded. He could be like "Obi Wan Kenobi" to whomever they decided is "the one." Chan was even starting to look like Alec Guinness near the end. The Bills attempted to do this for JP by hiring Sam Wyce. The fact that it didn't work in the end doesn't mean that it was a bad idea. Just throwing this out there.

Best way I can explain it is from this thread: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/154858-our-new-dc-was-a-movie-star/ Mike Pettine Sr.'s last year as a high school head coach was the subject of a documentary. His team beat Jr.'s team twice that year on the way to winning the PA AAAA championship in 1999.

I was buying all the training camp talk about how well he was covering the slot receiver. It looked that way to me in the preseason games too. He gets beat over the top in the Jets opener and that's the end of seeing him as a DB until Aaron Williams gets hurt. the Bills' D got better when he and Kyle Moore started playing. I'd have liked to see him covering Welker in the first Pats game rather than Justin Rogers. He's kept a good attitude through all this so he's a "keeper" in my thinking.

I didn't register with me at first but when his high school coaching background, his father, and Central Bucks West were mentioned then it hit me: The Last Game........................ http://www.amazon.co...t/dp/B0000E69GY It's memorable because it's a very good to great documentary on the 1999 season of the that school's team. Father and son are opposing coaches. his dad's team would go on to beat Erie Cathedral Prep for the AAAA championship. Prep beat CBW in the title game the following year (Prep/2000--best high school team I've ever watched in person) after Mike Pettine Sr. had retired. I watched the documentary on ESPN or maybe it was on PBS. Maybe some of you remember having seen this as well. I think I might try to see it again.

These types of analyses are interesting but you are left to wonder how they could come to such different conclusions. Football Outsiders DVOA and ESPN's TQBR have Fitz in the mid 20's. Hanging in the group with Rivers, Cutler, Freeman, Hasselbeck, Palmer, etc. Here's their link: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

My $.02. Fitz has played enough for us to see what he offers. His arm strength is not elite but it is good enough. Over throwing deep balls is a sign of what exactly? There were enough instances I saw where the ball was well placed and seemed timed but the receiver was engaged in hand fighting the DB for an extended time period. Beating the press and hand checks and getting into the route is not an easy thing. Hence the Bills continued mention of needing to add a receiver who is "open even when he isn't." A size/speed guy that is a physical mismatch against most DBs and who can get to balls regardless of coverage. They have not added such a WR in three years of trying and that certainly is not TJ. TJ Graham added very little to the team in his 1st year. IMO, Namaan Roosevelt was more impressive in his limited opportunities. More physical, better hands and more reliable route running. Fitz could have made more use of that in a quick release attack, especially after David Nelson was lost for the year. Accuracy is almost impossible for us to gauge. We do not know the play calls and associated route adjustments. Many throws are made to seams in zones and the receiver is expected to adjust their routes accordingly. Fitz threw the ball very well in Dolphins II but it did not matter. SJ and DD fumbles and SJ drops were killers. There was nothing wrong with those throws, imo. Fitz's two most productive games were the Titans and Pats II. The fact that both these ended up as losses and the way in which the offense and Fitz were complicit in the way they ended, is telling. Good enough to impress but couldn't close the deal. Good teams are in close, important games all the time. A QBs ability to close the deal is what will often decide it. In Fitz's 3 years of starts about half of the Bills offensive failures in close game losses are on him and that is too many. In the end you can either appreciate his smarts, toughness, leadership qualities and forgive his less impressive passing skills and lack of clutch play or not. If you do then you're inclined to think he's worth keeping around into the foreseeable future in one capacity or another. If not, then you're inclined to think anybody, repeat any body, that they bring in will be an improvement. I think the latter is more the result of the lingering anger associated with a disappointing ending to a season which had legitimate expectations. The former is more rational.

I suspect that the Bills screen game would impact negatively on this stat. Run the same numbers for those passes completed to TEs and WRs and then compare.

Pretty sure that a team will get in at 9 and 7 this year. So why not make the choice to be hopeful. To see a path to playoffs and believe that it could happen is a much better place to be. Sure they lose and I am a miserable SOB for a few hours or so but then you have to let it go. Being a miserable SOB 24/7 is no way to live one's life. I am hopeful that my children will stay healthy, that my employer will soon restore the 6% pay reduction I am currently under, that the winter will be a mild one. If the Bills lose one or all of their last 5 I will be hopeful about the draft and the next season. But I have committed to going to their last 3 games at the Ralph and I'd prefer that they got their colective act together and that they all had playoff meaning. Unlike the OP, I do not feel the need to apologize for any of this.

I forgot to DVR the game (no great loss) so I can't check, but I was pretty sure the CJ Spiller wheel (or was he split?) was a nonplay. I heard whistle even though there was no offensive reaction to the defensive movement and no defender was unabated to Fitz. If true then CJ might have quit his route having heard the whistle. Like I said, I can't check it out but I was rather upset that someone killed what should have been a free play to make something happen and if they had hit it it would have been called back. Anyone see/hear it that way?

I made a case for optimism and broke it down to mathematical hunches. That is all I have. "The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised." ~George F. Will, The Leveling Wind

I think this is almost totally on the quality/health of the offensive line. They have the burden of maintaining the quality of their play in the face of extreme noise. I think they did OK in Houston (aside from JJ Watt) and Arizona.

Yes this game is huge. Of the four possible outcomes of the next three games I'd put 3 wins at somewhere around 25 to 30% probability, 2 wins at 50 to 60%, 1 win at 5 to 10% and 0 wins at less than 5. This team, this franchise and this region are overdue for some reward for keeping our collective faith that we'll see better days. Cue the Goo Goo Dolls.

Winning the next three will put them at 7 and 6 and in position to get a much clearer look at the post season. This is still not the most likely outcome but it is certainly not a long shot either. Four trends to consider: Schedule. It's been discussed from the time it was released, but to close with 3 home and 1 semi home game in their last 6 is unusual for them. It's tough to sell those tickets given the weather and the Holiday issues but it should give them a boost. Health. This is the healthiest a Bills team has been at this point in the season since I can't remember when. This is especially true of the o-line. And, aside from David Nelson, none of the long term injured have hurt the roster. This is to say the players on the field have played as good as or better than those that have been replaced. Getting Kyle Moore more snaps instead of Anderson or Kelsay, Hairston in for a gimpy Erik Pears, McKelvin in for Williams have made the team better, imo. Playing Spiller more should help too and possibly seeing Freddie in a specialsit role that focuses on 3rd down and redzone situations, ala Robb Riddick, could be a difference maker. Defense. Since the bye week the historically bad play has trended more toward average and may be a become strength down the stretch. D-line play is more like we all had hoped and the secondary is looking better because of it. Fitzpatrick. I like the guy and think some of the criticism he takes is either misplaced or just the product of a group histeria bias. He is trending better as well but the Titans and Pats (II) endgames have really put the season on the brink of collapse. I have refered to him as a better quarterback than a passer and now is the time to prove it. To make anything of the last 6 he will need to be a better clutch performer than he has shown in his time here. Some of these endgame failures are on his teammates but too many of them have been on him. If the defense does enough to keep these remaining games close, which I think will happen, he will make the difference one way or another.

My recollection of that era was that Marv had issued a gag order regarding comments in the press that were not team oriented and were more self promotional, "Buffalo is a racist city", who was the "Michael Jordan of the Bills," "I am not appreciated by the _____" etc. Then Dickerson does his hyperbolic routine for the press about the Redskins o-line being ugly and the like and it backfires on him. That's his style but it did not play well in the Super Bowl press and it likely did not sit well with Marv. By the way, Jeff Wright was a good player and he had a great game in XXV.

The TQBR by ESPN was developed with some assistance from Football Outsiders. The funny thing is that the Football Outsiders QB ratings have Fitz at 17th and the TQBR as of week 10 had him at 27th. I recall the TQBR to have been claimed to be more heavily weighted to clutch play and the Pats(II) and Titans games would therefore be big negatives in what was otherwise pretty decent QB performance. Fitz has to be more clutch the rest of the way assuming that the defense is trending more toward average quality. The remaining games should be closer and he will have to produce in the clutch. IMO, this has been the biggest negative of his tenure here. The finish to the Titans game might hang around Fitz's neck like skunk on a rope. It's tough to make up for a collapse like that in a home game against an "inferior" opponent.

I caught the video feed from the U Mass website just before UB blocked the punt and scored. More notable imo is that all 3 wins are with red shirt freshman QB Joe Licata as the starter. He may become a MAC star QB. With all the programs full of 2 star recruits they tend to rise and fall in the MAC on the relative strength of their QBs.

Miami, Indy, Jacksonville and St. Louis. Three of these are home and only Indy has a winning record. I think the Bills are trending up, both offensively and defensively, and I think they will win these. Not that 4-0 is probable, but it is realistic enough that it is worth discussing. That would make them 7 and 6 and back in contention. These teams are all flawed much like the Bills but if the D can just get to average against some teams that are in the bottom 12 in scoring, the Bills offense is healthy enough to finish strong. It starts tomorrow night.

I suspect that there was significant outrage in the Bills locker room over the cheapshot Spikes gave Chandler in the first meeting. He went out of his way to launch into Scott's head while running beside him under the guise of throwing a block. It wasn't even close to being a case where he targeted the right spot and missed. It may be a coincidence, but Chandler disappeared from the offense for a few games afterward.

This is a get the ball out quick, spread offense. Fitz is both aware and decisive and sacks are kept low. He does not routinely seek to buy time to make a play. The third pick in the 1st Pats game would be one example with a bad outcome. Many of Fitz's worst plays were tied to Erik Pears' struggles. The guy has a leg/hip/groin injury and could not anchor. He was often beat off the snap or just driven right back into his lap. Designing some space/time into some of the passing plays by rollouts, boots, and max protects would be a good idea, IMO. Creating some doubt in the defenders' minds about from where and when the ball may come out would be a plus. Having Hairston in for a gimpy Pears may allow it to happen. By the way, the man will take a beating in the name of executing the play, often just before he gets wrecked. He is no coward.

As a % of the cap, Ryan's contract is for less than the 5yr/$25 million deal that Rob Johnson got.

It's strange how being unaware and indecisive can make an o-line look bad or how little credit a QB will get when he is aware and decisive and helps hide o-line deficiencies. It's Johnson vs. Flutie 101.

It could happen. A major bye week reset. Sort of like the Raven's game in 2010 when everyone was convinced it would be a blowout but the Bills were an OT Shawn Nelson "lift and separate" fumble from getting a shootout win. There isn't any other decent 2012 team that I have seen play less over the last couple of years than the Houston Texans but I know they made Flacco look really bad last week. No doubt Wade Philips can coach defense. Getting Glenn and Urbik back would be a big lift if they've recovered enough. Competant o-line play is huge on the road. Maybe the defense we were hoping for shows up. The Titans game was a bad, bad loss. The worst of the season, IMO, as far as giving away one they should have banked and putting them off track. Now they need to get one that we all think they won't. Winning the turnover battle along with some great special teams play are likley mandatory.

I would like to think that making the playoffs would validate the current management team and be a sign of an improving roster. Fitzpatrick and the defense will have to perform better to allow this to happen as neither of them gave winning efforts in the 3 losses. There is a very real chance that this can happen because it happens for a few teams every year. So I choose to be happy that they are 3 and 3, still in the mix and still relatively healthy. So why not try to enjoy the rest of the season and see what happens.

I was buying the training camp reports about McKelvin performing well covering the slot receivers. I thought it translated well into the preseason games and I could envsion him being a better option to cover a guy like Welker. Then came the Jets game and that was the end of that. Still, his worst play was with his back turned and trying to find the ball which is the situation in which he often fails but he could succeed in most of the other coverage scenarios. For some reason the Bills think otherwise.

Some teams get stronger as the season goes on and others get weaker. I think the Bills have a good chance to be in the first group for once. They can still become the "dominate the lines, run the ball well, stick the ball in the endzone, get after the passer" team they were designed to be. This is looking like a 9 and 7 wildcard year in the AFC to me, but 10 wins is still a realistic end.