JESSEFEFFER

John Murphy introduced him as having more yardage than Aikman, more completions than Unitas, higher comp% than Elway. Lost his starting spot to HOF QBs more than once. He was the QB on the KC team that routed the Bills on an infamous Monday night game. They could not block Thomas with the crowd noise, Kelly was sacked 6 times and they lost 33 to 6. Showed how a total protection breakdown can wreck an offense filled with HOF/Pro Bowl talent. JJ Watt anyone?

Whether it was Manuel or Orton last year, the O-line simply could not do their jobs well enough for the offense to function. To many breakdowns in protection and not enough push or agility to make anything work consistently. If the line is fixed this year and can get to the top half of the league, the Bills will have a great season. If it took 2nd and 3rd round picks to add to the mix to get it done, I would not care. Whatever it takes. Fix it.

Pro Football Focus credited Sammy with 3 drops. I think there were two drops by others as well. JJ Watt had the single highest game grade ever given to any defensive player. They credited him with 15 pressures and 9 QB hits. I suspect EJ may have had some minor role in this because we heard rumors of missed protection calls and incorrect drops but letting JJ Watt run amok will wreck an offense. I doubt any o-lineman had a positive grade that day but some want to act like the team was performing well and that any other QB would have performed well enough that day for a win. I think EJ did well to take only 2 sacks and still have a shot to win in the last two minutes and failed due to an egregious no call PI on Woods that lead to the Int. Joe Flacco's day against Houston in a December game with playoff implications: 21 of 50 for 195 yds, 2TD, 3 Int and a tQBR of 3.2.

I will interject here about the tQBR in that is superior to the NFL passer rating in some big ways. QB fumbles, sacks taken, the game context of when yards are gained, and anything positive a QB does while running the ball are all ignored by passer rating. Logically, not scientifically, any rating system that includes these things has to better than one that doesn't. Tanneyhill is interesting as there are parallels to EJ in their early careers. The biggest difference is that Philbin has stuck with Tanneyhill after his strings of poor play while Marrone benched EJ after two poor games. RT 2013 games 4-7 16.4, 39.7, 15.0, 29.8 RT 2014 games 1-3 34.9, 27.3, 21.2 (It seemed Philbin was close to benching him here as he would not back him as the starter when the Miami press asked if he would)

I'll add this to this thread. I've been kicking around a concept for QBs that is analogous to MLB's quality start for pitchers (3 or fewer runs in 7 or more innings.) Using FO's/ESPN's tQBR (designed to be comprehensive within game context) and setting the arbitrary bar at 50 (their midpoint of a QB helping or hurting the cause) I came up with the following: Ryan Tannehill has hit the QS threshold in 50% of his starts in every one of this three years in the league. Locker and Bradford (favored by many this off season) are at 42% for their careers. Joe Flacco (I most directly compare EJ to him in terms of what I think he can be) was 37.5% in his first year. Kyle Orton was 4 of 12 in 2014 (my comment is Yikes!!!) Really Doug Marrone. This guy was giving us the best chance to win? Actually, he might have done EJ a favor by hitting the reset button on his career in terms letting him roll into 2015 with something of a chance to be "new and improved." EJ is 8 of 14 for 58% of his starts. I intend to do a more thorough job of this soon but his is what I think it can show vs. the aggregate tQBR for a season or career. Is the number a result of overall bad games that are pulled up by a few great games? This is Kyle Orton's 2014, especially due to the starts vs. the Jets. Or is it a result of a majority of decent games but with a few bad/horrible games (usually weighted greater than good games) that have skewed a rating downward? This is generally true of EJ (TB, SD,Houston.) So this is why I, along with AD7's reasoning, vote NO. This is not blind faith. It is a fact based rationale for wanting to see EJ in this offense, this year.

I am with you AD7 on all these points. I think the part of your post that I bolded best explains the source of most of the animus toward EJ. One could legitimately vote for Tannehill on the basis of where he is in his career path and think he'd be better for this Bills team, this year but that's not me. Some think all you have to do is pick "Mr QB Right" and all can live happily ever after but that's not me. I believe in talent, hard work, character and patience. I really want to see how EJ looks in this offense with these coaches. He just might surprise us all.

Some of EJs detractors are overanalyzing his game to the point that they could never do with any other young QB because of the team he plays for. As if his struggles somehow reveal flaws fatal to his potential and are unique to him. When you look at him within his peer group (other QBs early in their careers) he doesn't look to be behind at all. I have him in the 20 to 40% chance at a long term Bills QB only because I am not so certain how the new staff views him. If they commit to him I'd put his chances at 70% or higher of succeeding on a Joe Flacco level. When I rewatch plays that I initially thought were ones where EJ screwed up I come away thinking that my intial assessment was wrong. For instance, the overthrow to Sammy in the Texans game where Sammy could only get one hand on the ball was actually a pattern where Sammy almost collided with a defender and had to take evasive action, break stride and redirect his pattern. I would guess that this would easily cost him two steps toward the ball. In the SD game, the dig route to Sammy that came in at his shoetops was actually tipped by Kendall Reyes who was driving Pears right into EJ's lap as he swiped at the release point. The last int thrown in the Houston game was an egregious nocall of a defensive foul on Woods that occurred over 15 yards. It started out as an illegal contact and became what would have been a blocking foul in basketball and is PI in the NFL. In 8 of EJ's 14 starts, he had a tQBR over 50. This is actually a decent % for a young QB. Tannehill has been at 50% for each of his three seasons. Flacco was at 50% over his first 32 games and Bradford and Locker are at 42% for their careers. In a direct assault to "he gives us the best chance to win" thinking, Kyle Orton hit the 50 tQBR threshold in only 4 of his 12 games in 2014. When looking at this stat in a game by game basis, you see how two QBs can have similar overall ratings but can get them by different means. There are those that have a majority of poor perfromances with an overall rating skewed by a few outstanding games whereas others can have a majority of decent games skewed by a few horrendous games. EJ is in the latter group which I take as a good sign. IMO, all this is to say that the magnitude of EJ's poor play has been largely over magnified, he has played at a "give my team a chance to win" level more often than than most think and he is likely to become more proficient at his job because that's what human beings with raw ability and good character tend to do as they gain more experience.

The Dolphins made a huge mistakes by entrusting him to be a team leader and giving him free reign over the players' locker room. He made mistakes in that there are lines you don't cross and he was clueless about where and what they are. His next team will not make that mistake and I'd bet Incognito might have learned something from his.

I was not happy with the hire because I prefer a different HC style. I describe it as a sliding scale from Ditka to Walsh and to me Rex has been too far from the Walsh end of the scale. I think that sustained winning comes from a smart, thinking, problem solving leader and not one that favors pulling the emotional triggers. It's the difference between owning the moment (winning the battles) and reinventing your team year after year (winning the wars.) Rex never did come up with solutions to keep their team near the top. Ther offense never improved. So I think the OP was spot on. I was actually angry with the hire but I have since, upon further review, decided to be more hopeful. He seems way smarter than Ditka.

EJ's 14 games are in line with Flacco's start. Of course Ravens fans were complaining about him right up to when they won the Super Bowl with him. And then he followed that with a season of "regression" which was maybe worse than EJ's. Flacco may be a good model for what a successful EJ might look like.

As I recall, DM did go to Whaley to explain the benching. I think they looked at some film together and reviewed some of the calls. We heard stories about how EJ rand the wrong drops and protection calls. Supposedly Whaley agreed with Marrone's decision. EJ did not regress so much as was exposed, imo. He was exposed to JJ Watt and by JJ Watt and it left DM in a tough spot. I was ok with the benching but not the "Kyle gives us the best chance to win" for the rest of the season all the way to the NE game. I have to wonder if Whaley thought the same thing. Kyle did not produce more after the bye week than what EJ had showed and I wonder how Doug Whaley and the "analytics department" viewed that.

Two nice plays from last year. One subtle and the other rather spectacular but both using his mobility: TD to Williams vs. Texans http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/EJ-Manuel-80-yard-TD-pass-to-Mike-Williams/4a79965c-80bc-4a56-8a61-85bcf68d745d Pass to Chandler vs. Chargers @ 1:00 minute in: http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/Week-3-Buffalo-Bills-vs-San-Diego-Chargers-highlights/291b6f5b-d9ae-4a5f-9604-ac952dafd5d4 Rex is right to think that this type of usage of time and space can be very valuable to an offense.

I think of all the football I have watched, the normal thing to see that close to the sideline is an upper body shot that forces the runner to step out. I do not think shots below the waist are all common. EJ saw him late and lowered his shoulder but was not anticipating a thigh high blow. The gloating afterwards made it a near certainty that the defender was retaliating for Kiko's legal hit that destroyed the late sliding Hoyer.

As I see it, it's a style vs. substance argument. Think of a scale with Ditka at one end and Walsh at the other. Many fans and members of the media strongly prefer an emotional, say anything, give a good interview, give 'em Hell and kick some butt kind of coach over the reserved, cerebral, calculating, professoral type. The same preferences exist in politics as well. My inclination is more toward the Walsh type and I put Rex more toward the Ditka type. Most of the praise I hear from other fans is more for his personality or public persona. Given that he never could fix his offenses after repeated attempts I question just how much substance there is in Rex Ryan's coaching record.

Brett Favre got to play that retirement drama a few times but I don't think Orton can. He has retired twice now so he does not get third chance. Plus, in games not involving the Jets, Kyle gave the Bills nothing beyond what EJ had.

Stevie Johnson vs. Miami, December of 2012. I tried to find the video but couldn't. Pretty much the same so I figured it would be incomplete and would have been angry if it weren't. Yes, I hold grudges that long. If attempting to make a catch while off balance and falling to the ground, the ball must still be secured after player contacts the ground. Only difference is the ball actually touched the ground during the process so it negated the "recatch." What I have a problem with is when they invoke this rule in such instances and an action by a defender caused the ball to be dislodged after an element to end the play has occurred (knee down, out-of-bounds, etc.) I think that was what was wrong with the similar call involving Goodwin last year (Bengals game?) He went to the ground, rolled over and the defender dislodged it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LyM--o1R98

Some of the best players on the current roster did not make much of an impact as rookies. As a matter of fact, the Bills have traded for and signed free agent players that have made more of an immediate impact than many of their first round picks of the last decade. The draft is over rated as a means to improve a team's roster. It's just, by far, the one that is the most fun about which to talk. The Texans improved 7 games without Clowney's help. The Bills' potential for improvement in 2015 does not rely much on the draft.

Ralph reacted badly when he thought he was dealing with someone who was not loyal and/or was downright deceitful. I remember when he tried to get John Butler resigned and Butler balked. I think Ralph sensed a man that was ready to flee. Given the salary cap issues to be dealt with, his "opting out" to San Diego was even more attractive.

Just wanted to show off the modified title to the moderator. Seriously though, I got to wonder what a guy with this kind of resume is doing coaching at Duke? Nice school and a nice town and all. Maybe he really appreciated the challenge of changing their program.

OK. I like him even more now. It's a nice read. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/cut-duke-coach-serves-mentor-peyton-eli-article-1.1456105 He seems smart enough to know the difference between coaching men and boys. 1) Has roots back to Bear Bryant. 2) Recruited Peyton Manning to Tennesee for Phil Fulmer. 3) Eli chose Ole Miss when Cutcliffe became their head coach. 4) Fired after first losing losing season for refusing AD's call to fire some assistants. Alumnus Archie Manning said his firing was an embarrassment. 5) Was OC for Tennesee's NC team-- Tea Martin the QB? 6) Signed to Charlie Weiss staff but nearly fatal heart issues prevented him from coaching there. 7) Manning brothers still seek him out to refine there games in the offseason and bring their teammates to Duke with them. Peyton did so after his latest neck surgery. Cutcliffe had interesting way of proving to Peyton that he could make the comeback. 8) Has taken Duke to bowl games the last two years. Barely losing them to Texas AM (JF's last college game) and Arizona State. 9) He should have some interesting thoughts on best using our ACC based talent. 10) He seems smart enough to appreciate what a good gig college coaches have. He is loved at Duke for going 8-4 and getting a bowl berth. I bet he'd be hard to convince to leave the ranks of Southern college football.

I like this guy's resume: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Cutcliffe He has managed to win in places were others haven't. He seems like an honorable man that seems to get the best out of rosters. He is QB centric, having worked with both Mannings and if Eli hits the market maybe Cutcliffe would make the Bills an attractive choice. WGR had him on last year in regards to Thad Lewis and he left a favorable impression with me. Seemed like he knew his craft very well and was easy to listen to.

Interesting point. I personally never really thought play calling was an issue. When the offensive line can't be trusted to execute basic blocks there aren't all that many decent plays to call. The pass/run split got way out of whack but this was never the plan which I think is more the result of Orton getting into the lineup and injuries. So they went with a short passing game to compensate for the struggling run game. I am sure Nate Hackett would have some interesting stories to tell. Here's another bit of rampant speculation. All the "Orton gives us the best chance to win" and "Kyle is my starter unless someone else intervenes" talk makes me think that someone was lobbying to get EJ back in there. The stories about what EJ was working on combined with the analytics department says Kyle gives us nothing extra so Whaley/Hackett/Downing/?????? lobbies to get the new, reworked EJ back in there. Marrone has none of it and sticks with Orton and says that's the way it will be unless someone pulls rank (Pegulas probably) and orders him to start EJ.

Because Polian described it as a "heavy lift." He also talked about 3 and 5 year commitments. Neither of which seemed consistent with a consulting/advisory role. That left me somewhat confused as to the Pegula's vision for this "outside set of eyes."

Some things I liked about Marrone away from gamedays: That he seemed heavily invested in the reclamation of Marcel Dareus. That he seemed willing to let Mike Williams help this team out after their SU history. That seemed like he was making a wise choice. That he seemed to be asserting his authority by sending messages to Woods and Hughes about either work their ethic or taking their complaints public. That he seemed wise when he told EJ upon his benching that what how he handled himself next would matter greatly to his career and that he should be prepared for much crap to be directed at him going forward. That he seemed never satisfied with wins because he thought there was so much more that they could be and that it was his job to get them there. That he seemed to be doing what was best for his team when he benched EJ saying that they needed more production from the position. While all these things seemed right to me at the time there are other spins that could be made to each one of them. Then there's this. That shouting match in the August practice. I think that was Marrone doing all the shouting. He was just as guilty as Hughes about airing disagreements publicly. Coaches with sour dispositions are nothing new. In fact, many of the greats have been wired that way. This does not pardon any behavior that demeaned Bills staff. I doubt that we are talking Brandon/Whaley here. I think this is about the cleaning crew, PR, the cooks, the sales and equipment staff. It's one thing to be hard on your players in an attempt to get the best out of them or to cue them in that public challnges to his authority are not the way to go. It's totally another to subject everyone else in your work environment to your sour disposition in some lame attempt to make yourself feel superior to them.