JESSEFEFFER

There were things about Marrone that I did like and times when I felt like he was showing good management of his team. Backing Dareus, challenging Hughes, giving Mike Williams another chance, sending some sort of message to Woods, talking about players not being good teammates and the like. At the time he benched EJ because of his apparent regression, he said something to the effect that there would be alot of crap coming out but that it wasn't all EJs fault. There things for him to work on and improve and that if he handled his business the right way, EJ could still have a decent NFL career. I was ok with this. It sounded like wisdom. But then Orton started playing like crap, in many ways worse than EJ, and DM kept trotting out the "he gives us the best chance to win" line right up through week 17. Maybe this was still wisdom in that it gave EJ a chance to be remake himself in the offseason without any recent failures to weigh on his confidence and still be a viable starting candidate for the 2015 season. Then we heard the stories about St. Doug how he wasn't pleasant with any of the staff at One Bills Drive, football or otherwise. Wanting the best starting 5 o-lineman not named Urbik, the misreading of his own marketability and his attempted power grab. None of this speaks of wisdom to me. Enter Rex, the new staff and a new season. There certainly is some mystery about how EJ will look in this offense with these coaches. The general assumption outside these parts is that EJ's benching sealed his NFL fate. I'd give that a Lee Corso "Not so fast!" and predict that EJ will succeed under these coaches if given the chance.

I Here's my theory. I think they wanted Orton earlier and he played hard to get. Maybe it was money or a desire to miss training camp altogether and still get a big payday to be the sideline, clipboard holder. Only Marrone messed with the plan by naming him the starter for week 5 and refusing to bench him no matter how bad he played the rest of way. Kyle's plan backfired and he played way more football than he either wanted or was prepared for, so retirement was his best option.

A larger stadium in a smaller market has always meant that fans had some buying options. There was no pressure to buy season ticket to have access to games and no real reason to buy season tickets that included preseason and cold weather games that they would rather not view in person. I do not think the existence of this buyers' market is the same thing as having "Bandwagon" fans. Contrast this to markets where there are season ticket waiting lists and fans do not give theirs up because they know that they will go to the end of the line and will be waiting for a generation to get them back. The fluctuationsin the levels of interstest, enthsusiasm and passion from year to year would be a more accurate definition of "bandwagon fans" but what is the best measure. TV ratings, merchandise sales, out-of-market fan clubs, maybe? The Bills Backers at the Tavern on the Tracks in Charlotte did not strike me as the bandwagon type.

I think that many of us have stated beliefs that EJ performs better 1) under center and 2) with play action. This most likely is the case with the 1st down passes that the article is talking about. Being in the shotgun combined with poor pass protection (3rd and longer passes) injected enough doubt into his game to allow him to perform consistently well.

Being blitzed and being pressured are not the same thing. Some meaningful context about QB performance that comes to my mind: 1) Plays where the QB is hit or sacked. 2) When the pressure is "in his face" vs. from the edge. 3) Plays where a defender has an unabated path vs. just collapsing the pocket. 4) Performance when the blocking scheme against a blitz succeeds vs. when it fails. 5) Plays where only one block failed vs. ones with multiple failures.

Having doubts is realistic and acknowledges the actual historical record but bending the truth to the point of breaking it needs to be called out. When it goes beyond accurate observations and reasonable conclusions, I and many others can't let it go. I haven't kept track of the sources for all the crap I have read here and at the BB site but it does make me think that there are some who'd rather win their crusade than have EJ prove to be the QB we have all been waiting for. They are the same sorts of people who predict the end of the world and are then disappointed to have been wrong.

Part of the punishment is for the "crime" and part is for the lack of cooperation with the investigation. I would believe that the latter is considered worse in the eyes of the NFL (or any other employer.) It would be a bad precedent to let Brady benefit from this tactic when the CBA specifically requires much more on his part. His approach to this in the hearing should matter.

I thought of them as well. The thing is, as soon as Russell Wilson gets his deal, I doubt that this method can be sustained. And I really question if the Seahawks with Russell Wilson at $20+ million/ year will have as much success. The Bills will still be a close to 50/50 run/pass team, imo. It's just that the circumstances that they choose to run or pass may be much different than past Bills teams.

Ever heard of game splits? Stats by quarter, by down and distance, score differential, home/away, grass/turf, formation, etc, etc. etc, This is not deletion so much as looking at production in isolation. How and where it occurs. People complain about "garbage time" stats all the time. Kicking the crap out the Jets is much the same and having 2 great games does tend to skew the view. Beware the mean and embrace the median.

Or this: vs. NYJ ........................ 34/49 for 468, 6 TDs and 0 ints for a rating of 139.3 vs. the other 10 ........... 253/398 for 2550, 12 TDs and 10 ints for a rating of 81.3 and the Bills averaged 18.3 ppg. Kyle fattened his stats against the Jets and the other 83% of the time he produced like EJ (passer rating wise.) When you factor in sacks and the lost yardage and the potential for rushing yardage, EJ would come out ahead. "Kyle gives us the best chance to win" is the big fallacy of the Bills' 2014 season but it did give EJ a chance to Cntl ALt Delete on his career path.

They wrecked Joe Flacco and the Ravens in week 16. How does that fit your narrative?

Better Qb, better offense, worse game against the same defense that wrecked EJs 2014 season. The story is that you don't overreact to one bad outcome where the entire offense played crappy. EJ has 8 of 14 starts with a tQBR at 50+. Orton had 4 of 12 in his 2014 starts. EJ PLAYED DECENTLY (tQBR at 50+ is somewhat arbitrary but fair, imo) IN A MAJORITY OF STARTS AS A BUFFALO BILL, KYLE DID NOT. This is the counter to the Kyle Orton saved the season/gave them the best chance to win argument, the EJ has shown nothing argument, the EJ sucks argument, etc. etc. etc. So, yeah, I do have a point and might be "right on" and your point is what exactly?

I'll add another. 21 of 50 for 195 yds, 2 TDs and 3 Ints with a composite tQBR of 3.2. That was Joe Flacco's December game with against JJ Watt and the Texans with playoff implications attached to the outcome.

EJ was getting beat up against the Texans and Sammy was complaining about a throw (which he dropped) being a foot too low. Three drops by Sammy that game plus two by others while EJ is hit around 18 times with JJ Watt hitting him both legally and illegally 9 or so times. Didn't set right with me.

I am beginning to think that there is a generational component to how Bills fans view QB development. There is a whole list of HOF QBs that were not very good at the start of their careers. This is no surprise because those of us that were raised without the internet, smart phones and satellite HD television know that this is true of most every human being doing any job. History teaches the value of, if not necessity for, patience.

I saw a B/R podcast where Simms and two others really talked up the Darby pick. One, maybe Simms, had him in their top 20 and said he was the best press/man corner in the draft. Much different that some of the other "experts."

In statistical terms, I'd say that EJ's supposedly regressed play in his last two games and the o-line's easily demonstrated regression has a correlation coefficient pretty close to 1.000. The maker of the Youtube videos is biased in that he is acting as an advocate for EJ. Much like defense attorneys (or player agents) that try to create a case for innocence, they can't help but say some pretty dumb things like "He was there but didn't pull the trigger" or "He is innocent but the NFL ran a sting operation."

Too lazy to look but could it be practice a squad elibility situation?

Plenty of opinions from near and far that Geno > EJ ( mostly due to assuming the benching is a sign of greater "suckitude") or that they are mostly the same which I'd highly dipsute. EJ has shown a much greater tendency to give his team a chance to win. I do not beleive the Bills wil have poor QB play in 2015 or should be in a panic. They have 3 chances for someone to stand and deliver decent QB play.

Don't look at 99.5% vs. 97% as insignificant. It's a 600% increase in missed X points. Teams are likely to attempt more 2 point conversions due to 1) having to make up for a missed 1-pointer 2) feeling the payoff over the long term is there or 3) weather conditions making a 33 yarder much less probable than 97% (blustery day at the Ralph, kicking toward the northwest end (fka the scoreboard end.)

I will look into that. I do know one was heavily dependent on Justin Rogers being the starting corner for the Bills. When looking at the composite stats for any QB, look out for the ones that are mostly poor outings skewed by a smattering of outstanding ones vs. those that have a majority of good games that are heavily influenced by a few bad ones. Btw, last year Kyle Orton had only 4 of his 12 starts with a tQBR at 50+, 2 of those vs. the Jets.

Geno Smith has had 30 starts. In only 8 of his starts did he break the 50 mark in the tQBR rating. EJ did it in 8 of his 14 starts. Geno did have some great games (4) in his 30 starts but I'd think the the guy that's hit 50+ in 57% of his games has shown more than the one @ 27%.