JESSEFEFFER

Aside from the wagering angle, as a fan of the team you'd have to be encouraged at the number of spectacular year 2 turnarounds involved. 50% of the 18 had improvements of 3 or more wins, 33% had improvements of 6 or more wins. Of the 2018 group, at least one of those 4 (Rosen wouldn't count due to the trade) should see a big jump in their win total (4 or more wins.)

Those 3 were among a smaller subset that showed only small improvement from year1 to year 2, either because they were pretty good year 1 (Luck and Newton) or look to be a consistant middle of the road performer (Tannehill.) Looks like I missed Andy Dalton. He was a +1, 9 to 10 wins, so the Bengals were not sub .500 his rookie year so it stays 12 of 14.

Those books must be balanced by almost the entire rest of the NFL betting world.

Given the 6.5 over/under line for the 2019 Bills, I wondered what the recent historical data was for team records from year 1 to year 2 of a QB on a rookie contratct. The recent trend, probably most closely assoicated with how rookie deals are stuctured and compensated under the latest CBA, is that teams that start a rookie for at least half their rookie year games are going to see a bump in their win totals in year 2. The basic thinking would be: 1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it. 2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved. 3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team. Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went 12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game. That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration. Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers." QB Drafted # Team Year 1 Wins Year 2 Wins Δ Goff 1 Rams 2016 4 2017 11 7 Trubisky 2 Bears 2017 5 2018 12 7 Watson 12 Texans 2017 4 2018 11 7 Ponder 12 Vikings 2011 3 2012 10 7 Wentz 2 Eagles 2016 7 2017 13 6 Mariotta 2 Titans 2015 3 2016 9 6 Carr 36 Raiders 2014 3 2015 7 4 Winston 1 Buccaneers 2015 6 2016 9 3 Manuel 16 Bills 2013 6 2014 9 3 Mahomes 10 Chiefs 2017 10 2018 12 2 Bortles 3 Jaguars 2014 3 2015 5 2 Tannehill 8 Dolphins 2012 7 2013 8 1 Newton 1 Panthers 2011 6 2012 7 1 Dalton 35 Bengals 2011 9 2012 10 1 Luck 1 Colts 2012 11 2013 11 0 Mayfield 1 Browns 2018 7 2019 ? 0 Darnold 3 Jets 2018 4 2019 ? 0 Allen 7 Bills 2018 6 2019 ? 0 Rosen 10 Cardinals 2018 3 2019 ? 0 Jackson 32 Ravens 2018 10 2019 ? 0 Glennon 73 Buccaneers 2013 4 2014 2 -2 Bridgewater 32 Vikings 2014 11 2015 8 -3 Gabbert 10 Jaguars 2011 5 2012 2 -3 Smith 39 Jets 2013 8 2014 4 -4 Griffen 2 Redskins 2012 10 2013 3 -7 Notes: Watson only started 6 games his rookie year. Jackson 7 games. Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion. If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

He did alright catching balls from Tyree.

It's tough to know how to view this. Is this a short term view (2019 only?) or a longer term view? The Bills have their most stable situation in decades, no training camp competition, no holdovers from previous management, no lame duck starter waiting to be pulled from the lineup. The source of the this content is hung up on comp% and it pretty much begins and ends there.

There was some suggestion that AJ wanted no part of the Bills. I'd be curious about why but he did have extensive interactions with the Bills over multiple years. Maybe he wanted out of town, or some tense relationship with a scout or coach (sometimes they tell prospects things they do not want to hear) or maybe the report was bs. I think he has a chance to stick in the NFL and get a nice start on his career at the very least, ala Namaan.

He's opinionated and he puts his name to them. To me that's something rare in the business. The thing about Josh seems legit. If you just look at the tape and do not get the context from the Wyoming coaches you do not get the full picture. Most all the opinions we hear about are from the tape and hearsay only, the full backstory is in the realm of the actual team scouts/GMs.

I disagree. Much of the feel good off season was launched from that game. It was tied at half and to see Josh play an entire game and be the best player on the field was important especailly after the pick 6 he threw at the end of the first half. Tremaine's int was a sign of what's to come and Kyle Williams memorable send off was a rare event. My 9 year old son wanted to stay until the end, the first time that ever happened. Hearing the Shout song for six touchdowns and getting 50+ high fives goes a long way to the making of a fan. Besides, all indications are that if the Bills drafted at 7 and 38, they would have taken the same guys that they took having 9 and 40 with the tradeup to 38 with the cost of a 5th rounder.

I've been there twice. It struck me that as a major tourist destination, site of Final Fours, Super Bowls, Mardi Gras, Sugar Bowl every year, in the FBS national championshio rotation, major convention host city on an almost weekly basis, it's still one of the poorest cities in the U.S. It does not make sense.

They may have done that based on the over/under betting lines. The Draft Network had them picking 5, I think. The over/under for UB last year was 6.5 as well and if I were inclined, I would have made money on that one.

A top RB in the 3rd makes sense. That's where they went. It's just this one is slower, smaller, less involved in the passing game and played against lesser competition than the guy I liked taken at #74 (Montgomery) so it's going to take me some time to warm up to the pick. I liked Butler for his athletisicm, size and RAC ability but maybe they know something about his drops that makes them think he'll never be coached out of them. I have purposefully never followed the draft into much detail. I did not want to get to liking guys too much for my team and then not getting them. Sort of like not getting anything on your Christmas list which is a trap I normally choose to avoid. I worked with a guy who claimed that the only reason his family asked him what he wanted for his birthday or Christmas was so they would not accidently get him something he actually wanted. But, I fell into the trap this year because this offseason is pivotal to the Bills turnaround.

Dionte Johnson of Toledo taken in the 3rd by the Steelers. I do not think that any position group was a poorer match between the semiprofessional scouts' ratings and the actual draft than the WRs. It's sort of like predicting the most popular flavors of the 31 at Baskin-Robbins on any given day.

I don't mind them at all. I was expecting an X-WR candidate too, especailly that first pick in the 3rd. They are often funny and have interesting things to say which I do not need to agree with all of the time to find entertaining. It's basically harmless guy talk which is a nice break from all the stuff that is more important but also more distressing and is typically featured on cable news, 24/7.

No one can talk that much and not say something ridiculous every now and then, so I don't hold those relatively few things against him. In this case, he said similar stuff about Allen and the Bills on a WGR segment. There was a thread here about it and someone said that it was an opninion tailored to the Buffalo market. It clearly was and is not. There were games where Josh was the best player on the field and you would need to have watched the games to 1) realize that and 2) think that he can continue to elevate his game as the team around him improves.

I think there were 3 like that in the last game and two were caught, one for a TD by Jones. The DB was jumping the slant and Zay came to a complete stop, made the catch and pivoted up the sideline for the TD. It looked planned because it would be almost impossible to stop that quickly and still be there to catch the ball. The post game presser seemed to say it was not the plan. It worked so well maybe they should put that in the offense as a way to beat a DB trying to jump the slant route.

Assuming none of them is asked to play: Fitz the mentor...... the wise voice in the ear of the starter. A wise counsel to the young QB trying to learn the ropes of being a team leader under a media microscope. Barkley is the sidekick. Like Tonto or Robin, he is in the fight but knows his place, burries his ego and is loyal to the cause. That was Frank Reich. Tyrod seems so understated and his personality is veiled. His effect in the room would be more subtle. I doubt he need do much for Rivers and what good he did for Mayfield is not obvious to me. Now, when you need them to start a game or, to the extreme, finish a season and take it to the post season ala Foles, I have no idea but I think your team is screwed with any of them as the starter.

Very strange draft year for WR. Lots of the bigger players fell and the smaller guys pushed up. If Hakeem Butler fell to the 4th, and DK to the end of the 2nd, then AJ not getting drafted at all doesn't seem like an outlier. He showed plenty of RAC ability so the separation thing I do not buy. If anything, I think its that he was lacking any elite trait. He is sort of the six iron in your golf bag. I can see him making their roster. PFF had him as the highest graded returning WR but he earned the grade against a MAC schedule. Chris Trapasso wrote the CBS piece and I got the impression that he was just throwing the local players' names out there at the start of the season as more of a community service, showing some love to guys who otherwise were to be overlooked.

Ok, these megathreads are tough to fully digest but I was on record as saying that: 1) The Bills would/should take a RB in the 3rd round if there was a particular guy they liked 2) Hoping it would be David Montgomery because even though he lacked elite speed, he was an all-around back that could grind out yards and sustain offense. Since the Bears traded up to 74 and got the one I wanted right in front of the Bills' pick, my team had to "settle" for a slower, smaller less athletic back from a lesser conference. Now I have to reserve judgement until I actually can see him play against NFL speed defense. Two of the more important traits of a runner are balance and vision and you don't assess those with a stop watch or tape measure.

Tyree is talented enough to run for 45 yards with his team trailing and needing a score but then lack enough awareness and fumble at the 3. There were some tough losses that UB took where he was capable of doing more to help but he seemed to wilt under the pressure. Some athletes come alive when challenged. His tools are rare enough that he still should have been taken in the draft, imo. Teams took lesser QBs in this draft. Tyree had a good Senior Bowl, Combine and Pro Day. Maybe Jordan Palmer helped him some. Buffalo716 nailed some of his flaws but it's not like all the QBs taken don't have them too.

Oddly, looks like that chart does not include the last game against Miami as it is short 3 TD passes and 1 Int. Also, since this is only passer rating, it comes with the flaws of ignoring every other play he made that did not include the ball coming out.

From the information I found, the creator of this metric claims that these scores show the highest correlation to TE success. OJ Howard................. 9.8 Jimmy Graham.......... 9.6 George Kittle.............. 9.5 Travis Kelce................ 9.3 Gronk.......................... 9.3 Greg Olsen.................. 9.5 I have not watched Irv Smith highlights, but I wonder if the buzz around him is all Alabama, SEC and his NFL bloodlines. Otherwise, I'd rather pass on him and take Oliver, Warring or Knox in the 3rd or later.

The top of the TE group down to Irv Smith, Jr. Noah Fant Iowa 2019COMBINE 9.89 Foster Moreau Louisiana State 2019COMBINE 9.48 Kahale Warring San Diego State 2019COMBINE 9.41 Dawson Knox Mississippi 2019COMBINE 9.26 T.J. Hockenson Iowa 2019COMBINE 9.21 Drew Sample Washington 2019COMBINE 9.02 Andrew Beck Texas 8.82 Jackson Harris Georgia 8.81 Alize Mack Notre Dame 2019COMBINE 8.56 Kano Dillon Oregon 8.43 Stephen Carlson Princeton 8.26 Josh Oliver San Jose State 2019COMBINE 8.21 Austin Applebee Southern California UNCONFIRMED 7.67 Isaiah Searight Fordham 7.33 Justin Johnson Mississippi State 7.12 Donald Parham Stetson 6.85 MikQuan Deane Western Kentucky 6.43 Chris Myarick Temple 5.97 C.J. Conrad Kentucky COMBINE| heart condition 5.97 Tommy Sweeney Boston College 2019COMBINE 5.91 Trevon Wesco West Virginia 2019COMBINE 5.89 Daniel Helm Duke 2019COMBINE 5.75 Caleb Wilson UCLA 2019COMBINE 5.7 Kendall Blanton Missouri 2019COMBINE 5.28 Jace Sternberger Texas A&M 2019COMBINE 5.25 Dax Raymond Utah State 2019COMBINE 5.21 Matt Sokol Michigan State 4.86 Irv Smith Jr. Alabama 2019COMBINE 4.82

He has the top RAS of the WR group which screams elite. I wonder what held him back at ND.

Over/under on WR taken this round is pretty big. Maybe 7.5? They will be popular this round so the Bills should take one if they have a strong preference but there are nice, athletic big recievers available later like Hurd and Boykin. Ok with WR, OT or DE. TE in the 3rd or 4th round as I do not favor Irv Smith who is small and relatively unathletic. My impression was that an edge defender needed to be taken in the top 50 if he were to be a candidate for significant playing time, that's Ferguson and Winovich, I suppose.