JESSEFEFFER

If he shows well and stays out of trouble he might still not make their roster but it would make an XFL gig more in play. Maybe with June Junes playing on the Houston team.

This is the United States of America, founded on people needing and seeking a new chance. He did well at Ol' Miss and their fans seem to wish him well and he did well in Denver to rehab knee and wrist surgeries and work he way to #2 on their depth chart. Then the Halloween thing happened and he crashed and burned again. He has "Fear None" tatooed on his arm and, while this may work for him on the field, he should really fear himself and the the poor judgement he has shown when challenged off it. I am rooting for him to make the most of his considerable talent and reward those that continue to believe in him. I think his arm talent and playing style make him interesting as a QB as do the local connection and well documented history of screwups, which as far as we know, have never caused harm to anyone other than himself. I hope he has sought some counseling because I think he will fail without it. Ultimately, as for the differing opinions soon to be expressed in this thread, you either believe in the possibilities of redemption or you don't.

I went back and watched the highlights of the game. The Bills offense with Allen was much more "dangerous" but Allen had a fumble and two picks to Darnold's one. Darnold hit that one deep pass to Anderson against really good coverage, the Bills got gashed by returns and had a FG blocked and missed another. For 58 minutes or so Allen looked much more like the QB a defense doesn't want to have to play, imo. The Jets got the lead at the end and Josh threw a bad int afterward, so I guess one could argue Darnold "marginally outplayed Allen" but I thought Josh showed more playmaking traits than Sam. These will be fun matchups to overanalyze for the next decade or so, hopefully.

I was thinking more like this as a comparison. Lots of these images out there when I searched so I am not the only one that sees the resemblance.

Steve tends to talk too much and deliver it too fast, his words get disconnected from his thoughts and he is left to ramble. He can end up saying Drew Brees when he means Drew Bledsoe, forget names of guys drafted a few weeks ago, start asking one question of a guest and end up switching to another midstream, etc. His story telling is much better because he doesn't need to express an opinion or think on the fly. As the narrator of a story he has probably told many times, he can be very good. Seriously, I worry about all those guys and CTE. Who can really say where and when that kind thing starts to show up and how it will progress. I still listen to their show as it does deliver some interesting Bills content and its better than nothing. Imo, there are very few people that can talk that much about anything without using a script and deliver it consistently well all the time.

He was at or near the top in dropped passes, spikes/throwaways and depth of target. All those things distort completion% to the bad and make it an abnormal metric for him. He is very good at short yardage/goal line situational QB runs whether a draw, reaching over the top or a power run with an assist from behind. So, TD passes are not such an important number. Seriously, I do not care how TDs are scored and I do not know why any Bills fan should. Given all that, my crystal ball predicts his completion % will be closer to 60%, with combined rushing and passing TDs around 30, total TOs around 18 and total passing yards between 3600 and 4000. The Bills offense will be closer to the middle of the pack but perform well in redzone situations and average 24+ points per game with any defensive or ST scoring being a bonus.

Josh Allen is getting very good at being Josh Allen and seems to be having a bunch of fun in the process.

It seemed most every Josh Allen scramble started with the Bills failing to block a line stunt. It's not like it was a slow process either. Blocks were beaten right at the snap. I wonder what the analytics say about that. Communication and attitude, I hope the new OL coach brings that to the group and maybe Mitch Morse can be the Kent Hull like leader they need.

I think he must still hold the record for consecutive TD receptions. I thought Jake Fisher would be good at the Butch Rolle route, he should teach him that.

I can almost hear those words said with Vin Scully's voice.

As he was near the top in both drops and throwaways, I just cut them in half which I thought might be close to the median as I do not have time to actually find what that might be. So I am only seeing what that looks like compared to Normal. So, I did not do that which you state that I did. Nice try though. And I would bet that 58.5 to 59.5% would be right in the range of normal for rookies.

I think a highlight reel of amazing, circus style catches from last year would be pretty short. I can't think of a top 3. Maybe start a thread: The Most Amazing Catches of the 2018 Bills Season!. Ask for nominees. Maybe someone can come up with a couple to refresh my memory. Crickets, I'd bet.

I think some of those you reference would be scored as a pbu. I don't think it can be both. it's one or the other, a drop or a pbu. At least that's my thinking. If it's in the receivers' hands and it gets ripped or knocked out before he can secure it, is that a drop or a pbu?

I'd like to know his stats in relation to balls thrown away and clocked ( I think they count.) It seems he had more than typical situations where he escaped the pocket and threw the ball away prior to going out-of-bounds. Actually, there should have been a couple more of those types of throws rather than throwing into coverage and getting picked. As a % it seems like it was higher with him than most. Maybe TransPlanted knows. Wait, I found his thread on page 2. He was very high in throwaways/spikes. Looks to be as big or even bigger contributor to his low completion% than the drops. His high drop % ( lets say half) accounts for ~ 3 points of his "incompletion % and his higher throaways/spikes account for another 3 or 4 percentage points of it. All of a sudden the rookie lowest 52.5% looks like a phoney issue. Nice work TransplantedBillsFan.

Supply and demand? Lots of WRs with draftable grades. Sills is one also.

Sure you have. I think he's related to Bonhomme Richard. Distant cousin maybe.

Unfortunatley, if placing an over/under bet on a team's season win total you 1) must make the wager before games are played and 2) do not know how many games the year 1 rookie will start in year 2. Do bad teams get better draft picks? Do bad teams tend to draft the better QBs? Do bad teams with rookie QBs tend to correlate to more losses? Do improving QBs correlate to more wins? Do teams with salary cap space correlate to improving rosters? Do improving rosters correlate to more wins? I do not think any of these is an ice cream consumption to murder rate correlation. Yeah and I think EJ could have gone at least 5 and 7.

Not signed by the Colts post rookie camp. I'd think they would want to take 4 into OTAs and preseason training camp so something may still be in the works. I haven't read one way or the other on it.

You are looking at this wrong. This is a view of post year 1 and pre year 2 situations and how often the team record improved at least 1 win from year 1 to year 2. I am not any kind of serious gambler but if the situation is defined as: 1) Year 1 with a rookie QB with ~8 or more starts. 2) The Year 1 seasonal record being sub .500 . History shows at least a 1 game improvement 12 of 14 times. One of the two losers was Glennon who was a 3rd round pick and did not play much in Year 2. Without looking at the particular story, I do not believe that he was ever expected to be the franchise QB so he might be realistically excluded from the profile. It might then be 12 of 13. As for Manuel being pulled after 2 and 2, he would have needed to go 5 and 7 the rest of the way to be fully involved with making a 1 game improvement.

Yes, height, speed, power and agility all define where and how you might expect them to win on their route. Short guys on the boundary or near the back of the end zone just do not offer the same strike zone that the taller guys do. Different body types to win different kinds of matchups. Just because Holmes and Benjamin could not secure the balls they got their hands on does not mean that their size was meaningless, imo. It meant that they couldn't finish the job they were here to do. Full disclosure, I liked Hakeem Butler (or Boykin or Hurd) for this offense. Rats.

Yeah, a potential reason to not complain about the week 4, home preseason game.

Some really nice projections along the lines of what I was thinking. Just south of 250 a game, close to 8 ypc, and 22 TDs passing, 8 TDs rushing and 12 int. Last years' passing TD/Int ratio that Josh gets unfairly criticized for should go up to ~ 2. Honestly, who should care whether he throws a 2 yard TD, launches himself over the top with arms extended, plows straight ahead with a push from behind, rips through the line on a QB draw or lets Gore/McCoy/Singletary do the honors? Just the fantasy players, I suppose. My sense is that the Bills will be very, very good at short yardage and goal line situations in 2019.

I saw a Twitter video yesterday of Tyree working at Joe Licata's training facility. Looked like he was focused on limiting his stride and maintaining balance through the throwing motion. We know he spent lots of time with Jordan Palmer, Josh, Sam and Stidham? I think. If he can get his throwing motion more under control it will be interesting to see the results. I wonder if the Bills have been able to monitor his progress and that may be related to their interest in signing him. Also, having another QB in camp that throws like Josh might have a good effect on training the receivers.

From Zac Keefer of The Indianapolis Star: QB Kelly in town trying out Former Mississippi quarterback Chad Kelly, nephew of Hall of Famer Jim Kelly and a former seventh-round pick of the Denver Broncos who was released by the team last fall after being arrested on suspicion of criminal trespassing, is among the 34 tryout players in Indianapolis this weekend. Kelly looked sharp on Friday, the better of the three quarterbacks to see the field. Former Tennessee QB Keller Chryst and ex-New Mexico Highlands QB Cody Keith also saw snaps. The Colts’ current third-string quarterback, Phillip Walker, did not practice Friday. Most teams take 4 QBs to camp just to handle the reps needed to let 40+ offensive players get meaningful practice. I'd bet he gets to training camp and does well. He better have his counselor on speed dial to make it beyond that. I think that he is one of those types that can't back down when challenged. That works well on the field, causes all sorts of trouble off it.

The Chiefs were not sub .500 and Mahommes did not start 8+ his rookie year so he is not one of the 12 of 14.