JESSEFEFFER

I'd like to know his stats in relation to balls thrown away and clocked ( I think they count.) It seems he had more than typical situations where he escaped the pocket and threw the ball away prior to going out-of-bounds. Actually, there should have been a couple more of those types of throws rather than throwing into coverage and getting picked. As a % it seems like it was higher with him than most. Maybe TransPlanted knows. Wait, I found his thread on page 2. He was very high in throwaways/spikes. Looks to be as big or even bigger contributor to his low completion% than the drops. His high drop % ( lets say half) accounts for ~ 3 points of his "incompletion % and his higher throaways/spikes account for another 3 or 4 percentage points of it. All of a sudden the rookie lowest 52.5% looks like a phoney issue. Nice work TransplantedBillsFan.

Supply and demand? Lots of WRs with draftable grades. Sills is one also.

Sure you have. I think he's related to Bonhomme Richard. Distant cousin maybe.

Unfortunatley, if placing an over/under bet on a team's season win total you 1) must make the wager before games are played and 2) do not know how many games the year 1 rookie will start in year 2. Do bad teams get better draft picks? Do bad teams tend to draft the better QBs? Do bad teams with rookie QBs tend to correlate to more losses? Do improving QBs correlate to more wins? Do teams with salary cap space correlate to improving rosters? Do improving rosters correlate to more wins? I do not think any of these is an ice cream consumption to murder rate correlation. Yeah and I think EJ could have gone at least 5 and 7.

Not signed by the Colts post rookie camp. I'd think they would want to take 4 into OTAs and preseason training camp so something may still be in the works. I haven't read one way or the other on it.

You are looking at this wrong. This is a view of post year 1 and pre year 2 situations and how often the team record improved at least 1 win from year 1 to year 2. I am not any kind of serious gambler but if the situation is defined as: 1) Year 1 with a rookie QB with ~8 or more starts. 2) The Year 1 seasonal record being sub .500 . History shows at least a 1 game improvement 12 of 14 times. One of the two losers was Glennon who was a 3rd round pick and did not play much in Year 2. Without looking at the particular story, I do not believe that he was ever expected to be the franchise QB so he might be realistically excluded from the profile. It might then be 12 of 13. As for Manuel being pulled after 2 and 2, he would have needed to go 5 and 7 the rest of the way to be fully involved with making a 1 game improvement.

Yes, height, speed, power and agility all define where and how you might expect them to win on their route. Short guys on the boundary or near the back of the end zone just do not offer the same strike zone that the taller guys do. Different body types to win different kinds of matchups. Just because Holmes and Benjamin could not secure the balls they got their hands on does not mean that their size was meaningless, imo. It meant that they couldn't finish the job they were here to do. Full disclosure, I liked Hakeem Butler (or Boykin or Hurd) for this offense. Rats.

Yeah, a potential reason to not complain about the week 4, home preseason game.

Some really nice projections along the lines of what I was thinking. Just south of 250 a game, close to 8 ypc, and 22 TDs passing, 8 TDs rushing and 12 int. Last years' passing TD/Int ratio that Josh gets unfairly criticized for should go up to ~ 2. Honestly, who should care whether he throws a 2 yard TD, launches himself over the top with arms extended, plows straight ahead with a push from behind, rips through the line on a QB draw or lets Gore/McCoy/Singletary do the honors? Just the fantasy players, I suppose. My sense is that the Bills will be very, very good at short yardage and goal line situations in 2019.

I saw a Twitter video yesterday of Tyree working at Joe Licata's training facility. Looked like he was focused on limiting his stride and maintaining balance through the throwing motion. We know he spent lots of time with Jordan Palmer, Josh, Sam and Stidham? I think. If he can get his throwing motion more under control it will be interesting to see the results. I wonder if the Bills have been able to monitor his progress and that may be related to their interest in signing him. Also, having another QB in camp that throws like Josh might have a good effect on training the receivers.

From Zac Keefer of The Indianapolis Star: QB Kelly in town trying out Former Mississippi quarterback Chad Kelly, nephew of Hall of Famer Jim Kelly and a former seventh-round pick of the Denver Broncos who was released by the team last fall after being arrested on suspicion of criminal trespassing, is among the 34 tryout players in Indianapolis this weekend. Kelly looked sharp on Friday, the better of the three quarterbacks to see the field. Former Tennessee QB Keller Chryst and ex-New Mexico Highlands QB Cody Keith also saw snaps. The Colts’ current third-string quarterback, Phillip Walker, did not practice Friday. Most teams take 4 QBs to camp just to handle the reps needed to let 40+ offensive players get meaningful practice. I'd bet he gets to training camp and does well. He better have his counselor on speed dial to make it beyond that. I think that he is one of those types that can't back down when challenged. That works well on the field, causes all sorts of trouble off it.

The Chiefs were not sub .500 and Mahommes did not start 8+ his rookie year so he is not one of the 12 of 14.

Aside from the wagering angle, as a fan of the team you'd have to be encouraged at the number of spectacular year 2 turnarounds involved. 50% of the 18 had improvements of 3 or more wins, 33% had improvements of 6 or more wins. Of the 2018 group, at least one of those 4 (Rosen wouldn't count due to the trade) should see a big jump in their win total (4 or more wins.)

Those 3 were among a smaller subset that showed only small improvement from year1 to year 2, either because they were pretty good year 1 (Luck and Newton) or look to be a consistant middle of the road performer (Tannehill.) Looks like I missed Andy Dalton. He was a +1, 9 to 10 wins, so the Bengals were not sub .500 his rookie year so it stays 12 of 14.

Those books must be balanced by almost the entire rest of the NFL betting world.

Given the 6.5 over/under line for the 2019 Bills, I wondered what the recent historical data was for team records from year 1 to year 2 of a QB on a rookie contratct. The recent trend, probably most closely assoicated with how rookie deals are stuctured and compensated under the latest CBA, is that teams that start a rookie for at least half their rookie year games are going to see a bump in their win totals in year 2. The basic thinking would be: 1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it. 2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved. 3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team. Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went 12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game. That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration. Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers." QB Drafted # Team Year 1 Wins Year 2 Wins Δ Goff 1 Rams 2016 4 2017 11 7 Trubisky 2 Bears 2017 5 2018 12 7 Watson 12 Texans 2017 4 2018 11 7 Ponder 12 Vikings 2011 3 2012 10 7 Wentz 2 Eagles 2016 7 2017 13 6 Mariotta 2 Titans 2015 3 2016 9 6 Carr 36 Raiders 2014 3 2015 7 4 Winston 1 Buccaneers 2015 6 2016 9 3 Manuel 16 Bills 2013 6 2014 9 3 Mahomes 10 Chiefs 2017 10 2018 12 2 Bortles 3 Jaguars 2014 3 2015 5 2 Tannehill 8 Dolphins 2012 7 2013 8 1 Newton 1 Panthers 2011 6 2012 7 1 Dalton 35 Bengals 2011 9 2012 10 1 Luck 1 Colts 2012 11 2013 11 0 Mayfield 1 Browns 2018 7 2019 ? 0 Darnold 3 Jets 2018 4 2019 ? 0 Allen 7 Bills 2018 6 2019 ? 0 Rosen 10 Cardinals 2018 3 2019 ? 0 Jackson 32 Ravens 2018 10 2019 ? 0 Glennon 73 Buccaneers 2013 4 2014 2 -2 Bridgewater 32 Vikings 2014 11 2015 8 -3 Gabbert 10 Jaguars 2011 5 2012 2 -3 Smith 39 Jets 2013 8 2014 4 -4 Griffen 2 Redskins 2012 10 2013 3 -7 Notes: Watson only started 6 games his rookie year. Jackson 7 games. Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion. If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

He did alright catching balls from Tyree.

It's tough to know how to view this. Is this a short term view (2019 only?) or a longer term view? The Bills have their most stable situation in decades, no training camp competition, no holdovers from previous management, no lame duck starter waiting to be pulled from the lineup. The source of the this content is hung up on comp% and it pretty much begins and ends there.

There was some suggestion that AJ wanted no part of the Bills. I'd be curious about why but he did have extensive interactions with the Bills over multiple years. Maybe he wanted out of town, or some tense relationship with a scout or coach (sometimes they tell prospects things they do not want to hear) or maybe the report was bs. I think he has a chance to stick in the NFL and get a nice start on his career at the very least, ala Namaan.

He's opinionated and he puts his name to them. To me that's something rare in the business. The thing about Josh seems legit. If you just look at the tape and do not get the context from the Wyoming coaches you do not get the full picture. Most all the opinions we hear about are from the tape and hearsay only, the full backstory is in the realm of the actual team scouts/GMs.

I disagree. Much of the feel good off season was launched from that game. It was tied at half and to see Josh play an entire game and be the best player on the field was important especailly after the pick 6 he threw at the end of the first half. Tremaine's int was a sign of what's to come and Kyle Williams memorable send off was a rare event. My 9 year old son wanted to stay until the end, the first time that ever happened. Hearing the Shout song for six touchdowns and getting 50+ high fives goes a long way to the making of a fan. Besides, all indications are that if the Bills drafted at 7 and 38, they would have taken the same guys that they took having 9 and 40 with the tradeup to 38 with the cost of a 5th rounder.

I've been there twice. It struck me that as a major tourist destination, site of Final Fours, Super Bowls, Mardi Gras, Sugar Bowl every year, in the FBS national championshio rotation, major convention host city on an almost weekly basis, it's still one of the poorest cities in the U.S. It does not make sense.

They may have done that based on the over/under betting lines. The Draft Network had them picking 5, I think. The over/under for UB last year was 6.5 as well and if I were inclined, I would have made money on that one.

A top RB in the 3rd makes sense. That's where they went. It's just this one is slower, smaller, less involved in the passing game and played against lesser competition than the guy I liked taken at #74 (Montgomery) so it's going to take me some time to warm up to the pick. I liked Butler for his athletisicm, size and RAC ability but maybe they know something about his drops that makes them think he'll never be coached out of them. I have purposefully never followed the draft into much detail. I did not want to get to liking guys too much for my team and then not getting them. Sort of like not getting anything on your Christmas list which is a trap I normally choose to avoid. I worked with a guy who claimed that the only reason his family asked him what he wanted for his birthday or Christmas was so they would not accidently get him something he actually wanted. But, I fell into the trap this year because this offseason is pivotal to the Bills turnaround.

Dionte Johnson of Toledo taken in the 3rd by the Steelers. I do not think that any position group was a poorer match between the semiprofessional scouts' ratings and the actual draft than the WRs. It's sort of like predicting the most popular flavors of the 31 at Baskin-Robbins on any given day.