JESSEFEFFER

The word "talks" usually implies "negotiations." I did not get that context from the comments Beane made. I got that he had merely reached out to their representation to present a timeline of when the Bills thought it made sense to have "talks." But, maybe I missed something.

Singletary is an odd case to me. His athletic testing was poor but his play seems incompatible with that. Making tacklers miss in a phone booth seems like a trait of great athlete to me. Anyways, he needs a reliable running mate. Someone to share the load and compete with him for playing time. I'll bet they'll both become better blockers, route runners and pass catchers just to earn their time on the field. I want this RB addition to be an elite playmaker because for however many touches they get, they will make the offense better when they are on the field. So, I am in favor of any outcome that shows the Bills thought this to be a priority addition to the roster because it is one clear way to make this team better in 2020. Getting an elite talent in the draft means we have both him and Singletary for the next 3 years and our offense has someone to threaten the defense no matter which is in the game. So, I like many of these scenarios as long as the Bills get it right which they probably will. I hope the guy they draft is as good as or better than Devin because it makes the team that much better.

One of those being against the Pats where he was facemasked without a call and slid outside the tackle to dive forward? That was almost as good as the one on Thanksgiving.

Thanks for posting this. I started a thread about a video posted to Twitter by Cian Fahey that was supposed to bolster Cian's bottom-of-the-barrel evaluation of Josh. When I looked at the video and slowed the plays down there 3 to 6 throws that were tipped by the DL, 2 maybe 3 where his arm was hit during the throw and another where Cody Ford lost leverage and was fast waltzed backwards and kicked Josh in the leg while in mid throw. So, of the 15 or so throws in the "Josh Allen is comically inaccurate" low light video compilation, 6 to 10 of the examples were not as advertised. Many of them I had not noticed when they happened or at any other point prior to watching this. So thanks to Cian for grouping these together in one place to make it easier to analyze them. One of them was an overthrow of Knox in the first quarter vs. the Ravens. The whole crowd was in "wtf Josh!" after that throw. Here's a screen snip of it below. I believe the Ravens' player is Chris Wormley and his hand is about to be smashed by Josh's forearm. As good as the highlight videos are and as much fun as they are to watch, I actually felt good about many of these low light throws too because many actually proved to be the result of something other than Josh's overstated accuracy "problem." If anything Josh Allen's throws are way more accurate than Cian Fahey's QB analysis.

Some nice RB talent in the draft and the Bills have a current roster need(s) at the position. It's one of the few positions where a draftee is sure to make the 55 man roster. Yes, they could go FA after the draft but when they can do physicals is anyone's guess. Having a rookie on a 4 year deal at a nice price to pair with Singletary is a nice scenario that could have a big impact on the 2020 team. I'd like the player to be the equal of or better than Devin because it would make the offense better.

The point you are missing is that the person doing the "grading" and put the video together chose a sample of 15 or so errant throws and 6 to 10 of which had nothing to do with accuracy. Therefore, I question the grader and creator of video who I've been informed is Cian Fahey. Throws that were disrupted by contact with his arm or leg or tipped by a DL are not evidence of poor accuracy. It's evidence of a sloppy process or a biased agenda. Put that on a milk carton. As for the rest WE ALL KNOW he needs more development. But, if the video is tied to his grading system, I reject its product. Some here seem to know his work quite well and think he clings to an anti Josh agenda.

Everyone can see the effect of a batted ball. It crashes to the turf or pops into the air, vulnerable to an interception. it's obvious to all. What is the effect on the flight of the ball of a slight tip? You can't always be sure it occurred. Watch the video and try to stop it at the key parts. When it's near the release point it's tougher to see. At 80+ ft/s the ball is a blur and without seeing an established flight path you don't know for sure it was altered. When it does happen it would be poor evidence of an "inaccurate" throw. Some have pointed out decision making tied to a late throw. Late throws give the DL time to get their arms raised.

Not to sure about his reputation or agenda. Appears to be a fired ESPN Analytics guy with a connection to Football Outsiders. I would guess that he put the video together. If that is his exhibit A of Josh Allen sucks he did a lazy job of trying to make his point. Picking 15 errant throws but having 1 with his shin kicked, 2 or 3 with his arm hit in midthrow and 3 to 6 with the ball tipped by a defender makes for a weak case. One could question his ability to analyze anything. Maybe he is the worst.

I always liked Chris Spielman's analysis. I rarely see any of his Fox games but his ESPN cfb work was great. It's a matter of articulating the details that his mlb brain notices. Details that most analysts never see or lack the context to comment on.

It was a video I came across on Twitter and I did not know who made it. Was it his? It struck me that a good portion of those errant throws weren't about his accuracy at all.

I think I need to issue an APB for the point of my thread because everyone is missing it. Almost half of the supposedly inaccurate throws in the video were errant due to something BESIDES HIS ACCURACY. That's my point. Agree or don't.

This is someone's idea of evidence for how inaccurate Josh is. Some of these are either bad or poorly timed throws, for sure. The question I have is how many of these were either tipped by a defender at the line or are instances where his arm hit in the middle of the throwing motion? It is tough to tell for sure as most of the time it's a blur of an arm releasing a blur of a ball going by a blur of a hand or arm. I think there are at least 6 of them. On some of them I remember cursing at Josh for missing such an open receiver. Anyways, I think this sort of thing happens way more than often than anyone ever notices either live, in the TV replay or in the post game analysis. You would need a high speed camera zoomed in on the ball to see enough detail to be 100 % sure. Just looking for some TBD opinions. Inaccurate Throws????? :03 Not sure. The ball seems to skip upward as it passes Steeler DL. :12 Not sure but the ball enters the wash near Redskin's #91's arm. :21 Throw needs a low trajectory. The DL extends his arm out about shoulder high. I think he got it. :25 Obvious contact with Josh's forearm during the throw. :37 Not 100% sure but looks like a tip by the DT as it looked like his fingers flexed backward. :44 Two Pats defenders in his grill. Either Josh short armed it or his arm was hit. :50 Leaping Browns defender in Josh's face. The ball looks slowed and lacks the normal zip. I think he got it. 1:11 Can't tell for sure but the ball might have gone between DL's hands. Looks volleyballed up and wobbly. 1:27 1st quarter vs. Ravens. I think I gave a wtf at Josh from section 228 at this throw but it looks like Josh's arm and defender's are on a collision course. Defender's arm looks to take a post collision dip. 1:49 Cody Ford is waltzed backwards like Ginger Rodgers and kicks the shin of Josh's plant foot in the middle of the throw. Confrimation Bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors. “Give a man a reputation as an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon.” ― Mark Twain

Technically, that's what we do here. Almost everything discussion worthy starts with someone's subjective opinion. My problems with the unit grades were the O-line was too low (far from average) and Josh being so much lower than Baker. It says that the offense needs to step it up which it has every chance to do and an injection of talent on that side of the ball would be helpful. Although, I would agree with you that win probabilities and predraft unit rankings seems way premature and therefore higher on the "waste of time" scale than most topics.

Great. My initial search did not find it. I did find a nice back story on Keith when he was inducted to the Syracuse Sports HoF.

I had listened to the podcast version of this but it mirrors pretty closely this article. A big miss is the fact that an elite RB can add much to an offense as a pass catcher.

I remember Keith Moody scoring a TD on a return, taking out a prop yellow flag and then spiking the ball on it. I guess he had lost too many decent returns due to penalties. I wonder what Google has to say of this.

I will fess up to an having an anti Cowboys hype agenda. It's lasted most of my lifetime. The "America's Team" label handed to them, the number of times we get force fed their games in primetime, the lingering angst from the Super Bowl losses, the reptilian mug of Jerry Jones and the amphibian one of Jimmy Johnson. As for Dak, starting 64 of 64 is maybe his best stat. That is not easy. I would counter that the Cowboys were +10 wins his rookie year and only +6 his last 3 years combined. There has been something wrong with that team and I doubt that Mike McCarthy fixes it. I think it may be a culture problem, maybe too many "me guys." Dak will get paid but I doubt he ever wins the Super Bowl or even plays in one. Just my very biased opinion.

The one play I remember was Josh Allen stiff arming his face to the turf on a QB draw TD run at New Era. Probably not one of his best. I wonder if he was one of those hitting Josh as he launched that TD pass to Foster. I'd have to go back and look.

QBs used to have to win consistently to get big money. Now they get paid for racking up big passing stats because it seems like the two are connected. I posted in a different thread about the Bills big road wins vs. the Vikings and Cowboys. Josh made plays and Cousins/Prescott had big passing stats in games their teams were not even close.

Ironic to be talking so much about Cousins and Prescott considering how the Bills beat both their teams, on the road, on a CBS game with Nance and Romo doing the broadcast. Josh made wow plays and lead them to upset wins. Prescott and Cousins racked up bigger passing stats but did little to keep their teams in the game.

Art Wander (Tiny Tot of the Kilowatt) advocated for Reich to be the starter for the remainder of the playoffs after the comeback game. Many felt that way but I don't think anyone was saying that JK should be permanently benched. He was injured and his return was in question. That's when Polian had the "Get out of town!" defense for Jim. That's the way I remember it anyways.

Yeah, I'd prefer one of the 3 already gone. Some think RBs 1a/1b should fit the offense as interchangeable parts and therefore do not necessarily give the defense a clue as to what is coming. Others would want different, complementary skills that would be used with a bias toward the situational need. I'd like to see a more explosive, power runner who is good in the passing game and represents a bigger playmaking threat.

I just gave CEH his 22nd vote. Question: If we take a RB at #2 in this mock, do some people's heads still explode? That should be reserved for the if the Bills do it I would think. Just wondering.

I am happy with the progress he has made so far. The team in general is ahead of schedule and is poised to be more relevant in the next few years than they have been for decades. Josh continues to develop his QB skills while making plays I've never seen other QBs make and winning often enough to keep his job. He is a rare package of size, athleticism and self awareness. Fun days ahead once we get to the post pandemic world. I should add this. When he made that lateral with around a full minute to go before regulation ended, I openly freaked and yelled that he had gone "bat**** crazy." That was maybe his worst QB moment ever as a Bill. In that situation, almost in game tying fg range and with about a full minute left, I was chanting "protect the ball, protect the ball, protect the ball" as he was making that scramble run due to the likelihood that defenders were likely to try to strip it. Then he pitched it while under tackle! That was somewhat ironic as I had said that he should play like Bruce Wayne most of the time but could play the hero when the Bat Signal went up. Now we have to worry about unnecessary, bat**** crazy attempts to make a play. Oh well. He will be fun to watch in year 3. By the way, as someone pointed out, the Bills are 11 and 5 in the last 16 games that Josh started and finished. So nice to win while he learns to balance situational risk vs. reward decision making. Of those 5 losses, I'd say the worst one was the Eagles game which was the also the most windy game of the 2019 season. I think that one was when the onfield, fireworks prop blew over during the pregame. Basically beat by QB scrambles and screen passes.

The Bills faced tougher defenses last year than offenses. 8 games against top 13 in DVOA defense. Seems rather balanced.