JESSEFEFFER

One of the better analyses of Josh after year 2. Much better than the lame title suggests. Duh! The Tyrod Taylor comp is interesting but as I posted elsewhere he could have chosen 2014 or 2017 Cam Newton. He makes a balanced attempt to put his overall play in context within the offense and sets the stage for what needs to improve in 2020.

I do not think Devin gets enough goal to go carries to make him a FF stud. Josh's redzone running bleeds TDs from others and lowers his own passing TDs.

I get your point. Depth of target/lack of checkdowns, 10 or so drops above average, spikes/throwaway, 3 or 4 extra windy games. They all eat at completion %. He was 62+% in road games. If his work on shot plays pays off like I think it will, combined with roster improvements and better OL play, this offense should be at 400 or more points.

I think the injury and surgery are more problematic than others. Lisfranc can linger much longer and if it impacts his ability to run he may not be near as valuable.

Cam Newton had multiple seasons similar to Josh Allen's 2019. Most similar were Cam's 2014 and 2017. I did not realize how similar these would be. Maybe the Patriots staff gets more production from Cam and maybe Josh is ascending but this is certainly interesting.

We have only seen Barkley one time where he had a week to prepare as the starter and played with the 1st team offense around him. He played surprisingly well then and if the coaches think he is their best QB2 option then I am ok with it. There were years where Frank Reich's status as the #2 QB was the subject of much concern among the Bills fandom. He never looked good in the preseason and seemed to lack any outstanding trait(s) that would justify the organizational faith in him. His first start came in his 4th year with the team in 1989 against the 5-0 Rams on Monday Night Football and the offense sputtered most of the game. I remember Dierdorf(?) asking how a game that was such a clunker could get so good as he lead the team to 17 4th quarter points and they came from behind twice to earn the win. Then we kind of figured out why they kept him around. He went 3-0 in the games he started that year. Frank Reich was the classic example of a backup QB that knew his place, was an asset to the starter during the week of preparation and could rally the team around him when he was called upon. Barkley may or may not be that kind of QB2.

I recently watched some Youtube combine videos where Mayock was gushing over Josh and wondered what his current opinion would be. There was always a big divide between the scouts and the analytics types. It seems to still be true.

Maybe Ken Dorsey can matter in this regard?

I do not think there is any closer QB comp for Josh than Cam Newton. We have likely seen Cam's best football whereas Josh is still ascending. Cam in 2014 was very much like Josh 2019 except Josh scored more TDs and had fewer turnovers while getting his team to the playoffs. Very interesting to see which has the better 2020. Game on.

I am getting Brain Paralysis by Analytics Website Analysis so I will not vouch for this but there's this from Twitter and SIS:

I should have added that I am surprised that we have yet to see a Hail Mary from thereabouts to the endzone in Josh's 27 odd games of action. I thought going into his rookie year that we would see him in that situation either before the half or at the end of a game by now.

Ok, I'll play. My assumptions: High school field. Thrown near the 24 between the hashes to the 5 near the numbers. By my best guess that's ~66m = 72 yards. I think this was a one step and throw not a running, crow hop that we'd see QBs typically use in those distance competitions. I say that based on how his body is under control after the throw. I think that is what is implied by the "8 iron" comment vs. what the "driver" would imply.

Imo, as an interviewer, I do not think its his job to challenge the opinions of his guests by presenting his own. It's not a debate. He has plenty of time to present his own views in other show segments and does so. He just needs to probe their view enough to fully see the foundation upon which their view is made.

This is all good. I would add this: If you are a "playmaking QB" that can make off script plays, there is even more to learn. More bad plays come because there is an inclination to extend plays because they can and they have yet to develop a sense of when a play is there to be made or should be scrapped. I think of an "athlete playing QB" as being very weak at QB aptitude, as you say yet to "master the mental aspects of the game" and not likely to ever do so.

Most QBs that fail do so because they do not develop fast enough to help their team win enough games to let everyone keep their jobs. Patience is not encouraged and rarely is a virtue in the Not For Long world. Josh is on a winning team and is doing everything he can to make himself a better QB. He has made huge progress and is already better than many predicted and has a real good chance to be a long term, difference making player. I could go further but Yolo nailed it. I do feel weary of this today.

In general an interviewer"s questions should never be longer than the interviewee"s answers. There are some who never seem to grasp this concept. They are too concerned with trying to impress the audience with how much they know about the subject matter that they bury the question in a series of statements.

This was before practice squads and salary caps. The old term was "taxi squad" but I think current rules would penalize abuse of the system.

And we could add Gary Anderson to the list of "but he wasn't good enough as a rookie." You are right. There is near zero patience for any kicker that is in a slump and costs a team one or more wins. How many teams cut their kicker last year after they played the Bills and they had a rough game? Three? It's tough for a rookie to be as good as they need to be the day they walk in the door and there are not enough chances to develop any faith in said rookie's talent without letting them attempt meaningful kicks. I would like to see the data on it but I'd bet New Era is one of the tougher places in the NFL to either kick FGs or punts. Assuming the competition is close, maybe they might keep both for a spell, avoid going "all in" on a rookie and delay relying on him to decide games. If the rookie can pretty much guarantee touchbacks and mitigate the need for great ST guys to cover them, it might work as a lower risk transition strategy. Let him ease into the NFL with some less significant kicks until he demonstrates he can "hack it."

I was thinking something similar but I never understood the current limits for bringing players back off IR during the season in the first place. They are getting full pay so why have such a severe restriction to the number they can bring back and why, in your scenario, limit it to COVID-19 cases? Why not an IR system more like MLB? It would give teams more options to better maintain the quality of their gameday rosters. Just say any use of the IR means a minimum of 4 games out for whatever reason, maybe with some restrictions on practice participation and reactivate them anytime thereafter. I do not see the problem as long as teams stay under the cap.

Eventually it will come out. How many PDBs nailed the threat early on in Dec/Jan but were missed or ignored by our not so Great Leader who doesn't read or believe what's in them when it does not personally suit him? We are paying big for that now. We are worldwide pandemic losers.

Plays to be made on both sides of the ball. JB's messed up footwork at the sideline, Duke not securing the difficult catch in the end zone, missed block on JA's OT QB sweep (he might have scored) bogus PF on Cody, LB's dropped too deep on a 3rd and 17 in OT, two missed tackles on Watson's OT game deciding play. These were all big failures not on the coaching imo and I probably missed some others.

Maybe physics helped. Big forces at 180 degrees kept him on balance enough to launch.

Scramble runs vs Broncos and Bengals where he broke tackles and forced unblocked defenders to miss were very impressive. Beat multiple defenders. Because he can make plays like those means he will sometimes react his way into bad sacks.

So funny. That's one confirmed area where Josh lacks generational talent. My kids are 10 and 9 and even they laugh when they see it.

I agree with what you posted. Imo, Josh's accuracy problem(s) is/are overstated by many who still cling to their predraft evaluations of him. It's the go to explanation for lazy analysts for every errant throw he makes to the point where it becomes irritatingly tired. See the thread about Cian Fahey's video of Josh's "bad" throws where over half were tipped balls or his arm being hit mid throw. He completed 62.1% in the 8 road games and only 54.9% at home. Why is that? The Ravens, Pats and the very windy Eagles game are my first thoughts. He generally attempts tougher throws than most, often while on the move outside the pocket and was in a "go route" slump for most of the year until he began hitting some starting with the Broncos game. He plays home games in a place where passers and kickers often face extra challenges related to the weather. His power arm results in more drops just because the pass catcher has less time to adjust and the ball is tougher to secure. It probably hurts more to catch. His scramble runs can be a more productive choice than a checkdown pass attempt as long as he protects himself and the ball. Yes, he should acknowledge his deficiencies both physical and mental processing, fine tune and tweak, and become the best version of Josh Allen/Buffalo Bills QB he can be. His completion % will go up but only part of that will be due to improved accuracy.