JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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2 hours ago, Arkady Renko said:
I like traditional QB rating when it makes Josh look good. I prefer QBR in situations like this where it makes Josh look better.
Exactly.
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I have not watched the Fox broadcast yet. I thought Sanchez might offer some insight into Josh's playing style because of their association through the QB summit so all the complaints about his commentary surprised me some. When Josh did the podcast interview with Mark, which was very good, Sanchez seemed genuinely concerned with the hits Josh allows himself to take and wanting him to play with more discretion which is a concern many Bills fans share.
The debate we had about NFL passer rating vs. ESPN's Total QBR was starkly contrasted in this game. Passer rating was 17 and QBR was a respectable 61. Seems like Kubiak agrees with the latter.
6 minutes ago, jletha said:It wasnt his best day by any stretch but anyone who watched knows we won because of Josh and not despite. When a QB posts a rating of 17 and 3 ints thats not usually the case.
btw, while his QB Rating was 17, his QBR (the ESPN stat, which encompasses running and situation) was 11th overall for the week amongst all QBs. Which feels more correct.
You beat me to it while I was creating my post. QBR is a mystery but I like it when it passes my eye test.
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I believe that the pocket is more dangerous for a QB with defenders falling and rolling into their legs (Theisman, Jim Kelly, Alex Smith) and blindside hits to ribs and back. Russell Wilson smashed his thumb on a helmet and missed a month and Tua got his ribs cracked afer getting crushed by AJ. I have noticed Josh do some smart things in the pocket to avoid injury. A post throw hop to get his feet off the ground with OL/DL falling into his legs. A short arm, flick of a throw to avoid an oncoming defender's helmet. Josh seems rare with how he absorbs hits. After the concussion hit, he ran off the field to the locker room. After the foot thing vs. TB he was still ripping off big runs. I think he does slide but mostly when he sees a bigger defender in his way and he is happy with the yards he got. The littler DBs are like bowling pins to him. Hurdling is one way to avoid them. The worst one I can think of is the twisting tackle Bosa made last year. It looked bad in the moment.
I think about are Brett Favre being addicted to pain killers because he needed them to play every week and Andrew Luck retiring early because of the constant cycle of injury, pain, surgery and rehab. Another is Josh's first ever run while at Wyoming that broke his collar bone. That's not likely to be the type of injury one would get in the pocket. It's a brutal, brutal game that, as Doug Whaley clumsily said, humans shouldn't play. Josh seems unaffected after most games. Like he had been playing Frisbee at the park. I know that can't be true.
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The worst weather games the Bills play in have almost always been home. Imo, the differential is almost totally due to weather effects on the passing game but mostly isolated to just a few games where QB numbers were pretty bad on both sides. The Bills passing D is great but if it weren't for bad weather home games I doubt they would be the #1 pass defense since 2017 when Sean took over. The 2019 games vs. Philadelphia and Baltimore, 2020 vs. NE and LAC and most every game this season have been wind affected, even the Steelers game. There are some throws that are just much tougher to complete and are almost not worth attempting. That over throw of wide open Diggs vs. the Steelers in week 1 was into the wind which was 16-20 mph. Josh probably just put too much on it and overcompensated. Even if Josh puts the ball where it needs to be, the ball is tougher to track and catch as it will tend move in unpredictable ways as evidence by the ball that hit Diggs in the elbow vs. the Pats.
I do not think Josh and/or Daboll have had smart high wind game plans. Over the years I have seen Phil Rivers (2013) and Carson Wentz be very effective with shallow crossing rub routes going for big YAC and screens plus QB scrambles to convert 3rd downs, respectively. It looks like the Bills try to run their normal offense and hope Josh can still make enough plays. Josh not taking any velocity off his short, over the middle throws in 26F weather is one example of what I mean. There are adjustments to playing in bad weather and I don't think Bills have been good at making them.
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21 hours ago, Einstein said:
The main lots start to get pretty packed by 10:30 but since you want to get to the airport after the game, I wouldn’t recommend using them anyway.
I bet you would be fine at ECC at 10:30.
If I take others to the game who can't take the longer walk, I'll park at ECC and pay the extra $10 but keep this in mind. With many lots scattered across campus, only one offers a shorter walk and it fills faster. As you enter the campus from Rt 20 ( SW Drive) and then pay, go to the left even if they say it's full. Just ask to check it out for yourself. There are usually spots in the lot near ECCs football field still remaining.
Also, an added benefit is the open space around those lots for some fun n games if you are so inclined.
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4 hours ago, twist_to_open said:
No tolls on that route, correct? I can't remember, but took that way to the airport back in Sept.
Correct.
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A sneaky smart way to get to the airport after the game. Call it a naked bootleg.
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15 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:
Kugler and Sanchez? WTF did we ever do to Fox to deserve that?
I am thinking that given his connection to the QB Summit, Mark Sanchez should have some Josh Allen commentary that we might find interesting. I'm willing to give him a chance to do a good job. Here is a Mark Sanchez pod where he interviewed Josh. It was strange that there was new information as you would think we has had heard it all. But no....
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6 hours ago, Hsker4life said:
I thought Poyer was giving him hell for stealing his INT.
Seriously, how many times have you seen defenders intentionally drop an easy INT on 4th down to preserve field position?
It would really matter what the goal of the next offensive drive would be. Kneel downs matter ~ 0. A drive that needs to end with a score and a Bills defender makes that int for a selfish goal, and I'd be freaking out. Micah is very heady so I doubt he'd make that play in any situation other than to close the game. I remember Nate Clements getting roasted for going for the int on a pass thrown by Byron Leftwich on a game winning TD drive. Fans do not forget a selfish move that costs a win.
From ESPN:
Before the winning drive, Leftwich had gone 11-of-23 for 75
yards, converted just two of 10 third-down attempts and threw two
interceptions. In the final 2:07, he went 7-of-13 for 72 yards, and
converted three fourth-down plays.That included the touchdown, when the Jaguars faced
fourth-and-goal from the 7 with four seconds remaining. Leftwich
sent up a touch pass to the back of the end zone, where Wilford
out-muscled three Bills defenders and came down with the ball as he
fell out of bounds.The play was reviewed, and the officials' ruling on the field
that Wilford was pushed out stood, stunning a soldout crowd that
had spent most of the game cheering on a strong defensive effort.Leftwich chose Wilford because at 6-foot-4, he presents a tall
target and, as a former basketball player, possesses great leaping
ability."Anytime you're 6-foot-4, you're open," Leftwich said smiling.
Just as impressive was Leftwich hitting Smith up the left
sideline for a 45-yard reception when facing fourth-and-14. Smith
made the catch in one-on-one coverage by out-muscling cornerback
Nate Clements along the left sideline. -
On 12/26/2021 at 10:44 AM, Albany,n.y. said:
Have you seen Rosen play? The last time I saw him he came in in garbage time threw a pick & got pulled for Atlanta's 3rd stringer-with nothing on the line, the game was essentially over! If he's still their #2, I could see Rosen playing in the 4th quarter if the bills are blowing out Atlanta. It could end up the same: Rosen in, throws a pick, Rosen benched.
This week I was looking at a 2018 draft day video and I still can't believe how bad Rosen turned out. The guys on the NFL network broadcast loved Rosen, especially Troy Aikman, who definitely preferred the wrong Josh. When Rosen made Atlanta, I was rooting for him to turn things around, but after watching him in the game he got pulled, I've completely written the guy off. It must really suck to be so good in college to be a top 10 pick at the most coveted position & not be able to play in the NFL. Sort of like the characters in the song Glory Days.
Troy Aikman having a bias toward a consensus 4/5 star recruit who played at UCLA? Really? Our Josh is the Roy Hobbs of the 2018 QB class. Maybe of all QBs. His pedigree defies any comp-- a no star JC QB that broke the modern day process of what it takes to be great and nearly missed on having a DI collegiate career at all. There are many that could not trust him as a prospect because of it.
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Something I have often checked with regards to Josh's passing stats is his home/road split. 2021 is in line with his career numbers but even more extreme. I attribute this mostly to home game weather and mostly wind. The home crowd getting Josh too amped up narrative is entirely b.s., imo. But, when looking at season or career numbers, (and the same applied to Jim Kelly) it's pretty negligent to compare them to those of QBs who played their home games in domes, or LA/SD, or Florida absent any context.
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1 minute ago, Breakout Squad said:
Or if you let it play you can’t punish the offense because the D jumped offside
Tough to balance giving the offense the free play vs. protecting the QB. Ref has little time to read it.
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Titans looking ripe to be shut out.
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41 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:
F
I wonder what Tom Brady was holding when he heard that news. Hope it wasn't a puppy.
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I see the NFL ticket exchange has Atlanta and NJ game tickets for $20 or less. Anyways, a sneaky good plan would be to target sections 205, 217, 228 or 239. Corner endzone, club level views and the sections are only 5 seats wide. I am like you in that I get to my seat and rarely leave it thereafter for the entire 4+ hours so this is much appreciated by me. I am glad your gameday experience went well. I must say that the Pegula era of customer service is much improved over what it was prior.
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Stinger by the look of it.
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10 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
Completely incorrect. The Bills deferred their decision to the 2nd half meaning at the beginning of the 3rd quarter they had a choice between receiving, kicking off, or choosing which end to defend. So the Bills could have instead chosen which end to defend so they'd have the wind in the 4th quarter. But then NE would have chosen to receive the ball to start the 3rd quarter just as they received the ball to start the game. You're basically giving NE an extra possession in a game that they were behind at the half and could sense point would be hard to come by. That would be a hard choice to defend if they lost in giving NE the ball an extra time in game they were behind at the time.
I will say the the thought did go through my mind before the coin toss that if the team deferring to the 3rd quarter was ahead by a fair margin, would they choose direction instead of the ball. I think if the Bills were up 2 TD's at the half, then may have in that case.
I am 99% correct. Choose the ball at the start after winning the toss. NE chooses the direction of the kick. At the start of the 2nd half NE has choice and 99+% of the time would take the ball rather than kick and effectively give up a possession. The Bills then decide on which direction their offense moves in the 4th quarter.
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In college football OT, coaches choose to play defense first. It is powerful to play offense knowing what you need to tie or win the game. If you need a desperate 4th down play to get what's needed, it's there to use. Having the wind in the 4th quarter is much the same. Whether throwing or kicking, it's best to have the advantage when you know what you need for the win/tie. I have not seen the replay of the throw to Diggs that hit him in the arm for what should have been a TD. That throw was not even possible going the other way. Moving with the wind allows many more options to be available when the game is on the line.
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Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:Hapless brings up a good point that the Bills were arguably more inept on offense with the wind in the 3rd quarter so no guarantee that they move the ball well in the 4th quarter with the wind. And the 3rd quarter field goal is likely missed if going into the wind instead of with it.
I think McDermott's biggest blunders were 1. wasting two timeouts that could have given the Bills about 70-75 seconds left to work with at the end. And 2. not demanding Daboll call at least two Allen run plays when they were 1st and goal at the six yard line on I think their second to last possession of the game. I got to believe Allen can bully his way to 6 yards on 3 or 4 carries if needed.
Anytime the Bills fail in the RZ and Josh did not run even once, that seems like a mistake to me.
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1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:
Let me offer an alternate view here and a reason why coaches get ulcers. By taking the wind in the first quarter McD absolutely did the right thing. But two players screwed it up. NE gets the KO and goes 3 and out losing 5 yards. The Bills get the ball at midfield but on 3rd & 7 Knox drops a pass that would have got the Bills a 1st down inside the Pats 35. We punt and NE again goes 3 and out. This time their punt is caught in the wind and the Bills take over at NE's 40 yard line. The Bills get a 1st down and then on FIRST & 10 at the Pats 29 yard line Brieda fumbles away the ball.
After each team had two possessions with us having the wind at our backs we should've been up 10 or even 14 to nothing. Instead two bad plays by two different players screwed it up. McD must still have nightmares of how the game started and how close he came to winning it in the 1st quarter.
Much like seasons in general, it matters way more how things end than how they begin. Wanting that advantage in the 1st quarter rather than the 4th quarter is short sighted and, frankly, foolish.
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No coach willingly leaves time on the clock for the opponent to do whatever weird things they might have practiced for such a situation. The Bills were also out of times out so it think a blocked kick recovery or botched snap would require that they somehow lineup and spike the ball after the mayhem of a botched play and recovering the ball. I do not think that they get another chance and it was nothing to plan for.
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1 minute ago, boco357 said:
This team is obsessed with the short kickoffs(I always post about hating them in game day threads a bunch). But why not this week when you got a fumble already try some short kickoffs and make them handle the ball again. This week Bass just booted it out of the endzone.
Good point. Sitting in section 228, it was noted among our group how odd it was that the Bills would kick short to the Saints in a dome but not even attempt that during a home game in cold and windy conditions.
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I have been in a bit of Bills news time warp since attending the Monday game as I flew out of Buffalo at 5:30AM the following morning and worked long hours at a company facility all week. So, while maybe it was discussed in the GDT or post game conversation but as a main take-a-way from this game I do not know if as much was made of this as I think it deserves. It's as big of a mistake as Wade Phillips' decision to kick a field goal for the lead, on first down at the 23 with 20 seconds on the clock.
The Bills won the coin toss and DEFERRED as if nothing was going to be different about this game. But everyone knew it would be different and we knew it all week.
Watching pregame warmups, kicks toward the scoreboard were driven short and to the right from even a modest distance of 40 yards. Kicks toward the tunnel had a range of 65+ yards leaving me to wonder if we might witness a new NFL record FG.
A close game was reasonable to expect and close games get decided in the 4th quarter. With timeout usage, the two minute warning and clock stoppage for out-of-bounds in the last 5 minutes of the game, more plays from scrimmage usually occur in the 4th quarter than in any of the other three.
By deferring, Sean McDermott left the decision of whether the Bills would have the wind advantage in the 4th quarter in the hands of Bill Belichick. I 'd bet when the Bills deferred, Bill might have even laughed out loud knowing that everything the Bills might attempt to do in the 4th quarter of a normal game would now become either more difficult to even impossible. I count this as one of Sean's biggest in game coaching blunders and right up there with Wade's.
On to Tampa Bay, where giving your opponent the option to decide which direction to kickoff in the 3rd quarter is of little consequence.
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Bills vs. Jets Tickets Selling as low as $8
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
It is silly that the Bills have had 4 home games scheduled after December 1 with two after Christmas. With at least 1 home playoff looming and no threat of any blackouts, staying home and watching on a high definition, big screen TV seems like a great idea to me.