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JESSEFEFFER

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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER

  1. On 1/17/2022 at 10:07 PM, Buffalo716 said:

     

    I would break this down to a few things 

     

    First some players play faster than their 40 time.. the juice and adrenaline of a game hype you up 

     

    Second the offenses that Josh and Lamar Jackson were running were completely different.. Lamar got the benefit from a college offense that ran a spread option 

     

    Josh was also under center a lot more which makes it harder to run effectively... They weren't running standard read options like is typical in college ball 

     

    On the flip side.. Josh Allen's JUCO rushing stats were amazing 

     

    In 8 starts he had 660 yards and 10 TDs  5.5 average

    For college QBs, sacks and the lost yardage count as rush attempts so that 5.5 ypc average is likely closer to 7 on actual runs/scrambles.

  2. QBs holding the ball with their back turned to the D is a bit of a gamble.  If there is a defender in his grill when he turns his head around it could go poorly.  Josh getting depth and sprinting out would create extra space between him and any edge defender who did not take the bait and Josh with a little extra time and space is very dangerous.  If needed, he then could juke, stiff arm and/or pump fake and keep rolling to then either run or throw.  I feel like any RZ possession where the Bills failed to  get the TD and Josh did not run the ball or use boot/waggle action was not a serious attempt to score.  

  3. 17 hours ago, djp14150 said:

    Is romo all that better?

     

    I think Nantz/Romo have done all of 4 Bills games since Josh became QB1.  2018 vs. Vikings, 2019 vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving, 2021 AFC Championship and this season  vs. Tampa Bay.  Maybe I am missing some.  I'd say the reason for this is because they are usually in higher viewership 4 to 7 window.  They have been largely entertained by what they have seen and fair with their commentary, imo.  They talk like they have seen some of the Bill's games above and beyond the ones they covered.  Others talk like they are seeing the Bills play for the first time and are basing play descriptions solely on hearsay/reputation.  

     

     

  4. I have taken the opportunity to mention how I think he could/would out do Tony Romo as a color analyst. He knows just as much football, has more humor/personality, has played for 9 different  NFL franchises and coaching staffs, has more relationships throughout the NFL world and likely has more league wide good will than any other human being on the planet.  He could make Romo kind of money doing that job which would trump the money he made as a QB.

    • Agree 1
  5. 12 minutes ago, MJS said:

    (Posted this in the other thread talking about this)
     

    "Created by PFR founder Doug Drinen, the Approximate Value (AV) method is an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1950)."

     

    This link goes into everything: 

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

     

    I think it is an interesting metric. I do think it is more valuable when looking at a player's career compared to just individual seasons.

     

    Top AV Players in Bills History:

    1- Bruce Smith (201)

    2- Thurman Thomas (134)

    3- Jim Kelly (132)

    4- Andre Reed (132)

    5- Kent Hull (109)

    6- OJ Simpson (107)

     

    Josh Allen is currently at 54 which ranks 44th in team history (not sure if it includes this season or not).

     

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/career-av.htm

     

    I couldn't find a list of single season leaders in AV for the Bills, but 19 is really good. Bruce Smith only had 1 season higher than that (1996). Jim Kelly never had a season that high. Thurman Thomas has 3 seasons at 19 or better (1990 through 1992), OJ Simpson has 2, including an insane AV of 25 in 1975.

     

    That has him for 61 games which would be the number of career regular season games in which he has appeared.

  6. This is tough everywhere.  I spent some time in  the Charlotte/Matthews area for work on 3 occasions and had trouble finding anything open to watch the TNF games.  Best I could do was a Buffalo Wild Wings.

     

    Depending on which direction you head, this may be an option.  It is SouthWest of the stadium and the traffic is much less than in most any other direction.  You could get there.

     

     

    denny's hamburg.pdf

  7. 13 minutes ago, Greg S said:

     

    90 hot and humid.

    Actually, this posts reminds me that for the Bills preseason game vs. Packers on 8/28 it was 91F which I remember hearing was their hottest home game on record.  Our seats were in the shade but those in the direct sun were suffering and that side of the stadium soon cleared out.  Some were taken out on stretchers.  I said to those around me that we should remember this day come December when we are here all bundled up and trying to get through the game.  

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  8. Having a 5th home game since the start of December is crazy, stupid scheduling.  I have an extra pair one section over from where I sit with my brother. They have been used by other family or me 5 times, resold twice, and never sold twice including at 80% of face value for the Patriots MNF game.  I tried to list them for this game at $40 but it autocorrected to $45.  The resale market has been weak and shrinking all season due to the factors already discussed.  Making a profit has not been on the radar this year.  Trying and failing to break even has me thinking twice about reupping for next year.  

  9. I want to see the day when the NFL decides to embed a GPS chip at both ends of the ball or maybe the TV networks can just track it the same way they do for baseball and golf.  Launch angle, launch velocity, RPMs, time of flight, the wind effects on flight, etc,  I'd like to know the numbers from one direction to another, one QB, P or Pk to the next.  At the very least, they probably could do a much better job at marking the ball for first downs and TDs.  

     

    For windy days, shallow crossing routes with picks/rubs, screen passes and QB scramble runs are great ways to get 1st downs.  Unfortunately, the Bills don't do these things much for whatever reason.  In extreme cold, hard throws should ideally be to the body and touch throws should be on routes where the receiver can have eyes on the ball as early as possible to track and adjust to the flight of the ball.

    • Like (+1) 1
  10. 6 minutes ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

     

    I mean, this is really true - not because of the flight of the ball, but because of the gripping to throw and the catching.  Maybe Josh's hands are big enough so that the first matters less, but the second will always matter.  In that weather, the ball becomes a slippery rock made worse by the fact that Josh is firing it as hard as he can to get it to cut through the wind.  It is the same principle which sees fewer fumbles if the ball is a little deflated in cold weather.

     

    I don't want to bring up the nameless one, but the accusations against him were always very believable to me, and not just because it was the cheats.  Josh needs to make sure that his balls are at the very bottom of the legal limit.

    Bottom of the legal limit at locker room temp of ~72F and then take them outside at ~5F temp and they should be about perfect.

    • Agree 1
  11. I park at ECC off of Rt 20 ($35--look in the lot near the football field if the attendant says the lower lot is full) or across RT 20 at Bert's Bikes ($25 it's about a mile from there to my seat.)  The traffic light there is a huge plus.  Once you clear the blinking yellow light at Big Tree/Tops parking lot, it's normal traffic flow all the way home.   There's new Dollar General (those places sprout out of nowhere--like weeds I say) next to the bike shop that looks ready to open.  That will be a busy place on gamedays.

  12. I think this is what they have convinced themselves is the basic truth.  While the Bills defense may be very good they are more finesse than fierce and can be pushed around and though Josh was fantastic in the second game, the Pats were within one score in the 4th quarter and the Bills were one mistake away from being beaten.  It is statistically unlikely that Josh can be that great in back to back games.  It's not analysis, it's fandom.

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  13. Any QB metrics that don't grade on a curve for weather conditions are inherently biased.  As far as I know, none even attempt to do so.  Those that say "It's Buffalo--what do you expect?" I say most home games have been weekly outliers.  Nicer days before or after the game and worse on gamedays.  Deep shots into or with the wind come with a built in extra degree of variance.  Touch passes are more susceptible to wind effects, so that's why Josh is throwing rockets.  With the colder weather, his passes are even more difficult to catch so everyone is wanting Josh to power down.  Also, a slower ball = slower release = more time for pass rushers and defenders to react.  Most every QB in the NFL is no match for the Bills defense + tough weather.  Our QB can still make plays and is willing to try, so embrace it.

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