JESSEFEFFER

This is the kind of information that I find fascinating but that we rarely get because we aren't "in the loop." The fact that Modrak is still a part of the organization is telling. Usually it takes some kind of disastrous outcome to find out how/why certain decisions got made and by whom. In the case of a college scouting director there would be a huge data set to evaluate. Not just the grades of your picks but the grades that were given all the others. Being good at evaluating players is one thing, making the right decisions is another.

One thing clear to me that explained a lot of their moves was their eye on the bottom line. Faneca, Jones, Coles last week, getting Clemmens to take a pay cut, maybe cutting Tony Richardson. They knew all along that Revis, Mangold and Ferguson were getting new deals and these other moves were made to accomodate them. IMO, paying a corner $150 million over 10 years will hurt the quality of the team almost everywhere else. This is why he is still sitting.

"Just plain stupid these guys are." JP is that you?

Kind of a small sample set but it does look like he has an ability to avoid the big hit. When you play the game at a faster speed than the defense that becomes possible. Thurman was like that and so was Flutie. There is a lot to be said for self perservation.

There still is. The rule was changed in 2008 to include a defer option. Here's one link: My link

This is the basis of the poll, if you can accept it. 1) Most games in the NFL are close. 2) Most close games are decided in the 4th quarter. 3) Given the clock rules, there are typically more plays run in the 4th quarter. 4) Wind is a factor in most Bills home games. 5) By deferring until the 2nd half you let your opponent choose which goal they will defend, assuming you take the ball to start the half. 6) Whether you are ahead or behind it is better to have the wind in your favor and against your opponent, because of the effect it has on both the kicking and passing game. 7) My little brother gets extremely pissed when the Bills are playing the 4th quarter against the wind because even though they won the toss, the HC gave away the option to dictate how the 4th quarter would be played by deferring. 8) By taking the ball at the start of the game, the only way the opponent can dictate the 4th quarter would be by kicking off at the start of both halves, effectively creating at least one, maybe two, extra possessions for the team that won the toss.

"I am the Head Coach and Trent Edwards is the starting quarterback of the Buffalo Bills and if you don't like like it you can get out of town!!!" Maybe Chan ran into Bill at the rogers Centre. "I am the Head Coach and Trent Edwards is the starting quarterback of the Buffalo Bills and if you don't like like it you can get out of town!!!" Maybe Chan ran into Bill at the Rogers Centre.

Take the Ball or defer? Here are the scenarios: Deferring is the choice of most, I believe. Why? I suspect most coaches value their first offensive possession of the second half. After having seen the way their opponents are playing them, they believe that there can be something gained during halftime to use at the start of the second half. If your team manages to close the first half with a score, your team has the chance to put two scores on the board before your opponent's offense sees the field again. Choosing the ball at the start of the game seems like a weak thing to do, especially when you're the 2009 nBuffalo Bills. What advantage did that offense ever have that could dictate play to the defense? Not so surprising that Dick Jauron usually deferred if the Bills won the toss. I think this because ............... It drove my brother nuts if they did this because by deferring he would give up the ability to insure that the Bills would have the wind advantage in the 4th quarter. Face it, most home games do have abnormal wind conditions. Even when swirling, the prevailing direction is toward the tunnel end. Given that most games are close and are decided in the 4th quarter and there are usually more plays run in the 4th anyhow, doesn't it make sense to have the wind in your favor for the two minute drill? Or when trying to make that game deciding kick? How many times did they give away this advantage? How many times did it bite them in the butt? I think the 2010 Bills could win some home games by just running the ball into the wind in the 3rd quarter and burning clock and playing the 4th with the prevailing wind. Don't tell him, but I think I have come to my brother's way of thinking.

In his defense.............. He is hustling to the ball all the time. Actually running plays down from behind. Often you see him running "off camera" only to return back to the play. He could benefit form developing some some smarts about how he chooses to get to the ball. The "dirty" plays discussed were overblown. The "hit" on Fred Jackson was no hit at all. There was not a "pop" to be heard on the video from the contact. It was a "two hand touch" manuever from an angle that knocked Fred off balance. I've seen the same thing in flag and touch football. You rally to the ball, extend your hands and end up knocking the guy down. The roughing call on McNabb was questionable too. Aaron lunged at him (not even using his 1 step)during the release, hit him across the upper body (not the helmet) and took him over backwards to the ground. The weight of his body did not land on him either as it was just his arm and shoulder over McNabb's body. The actual contact with the ground looked violent and late but it was just the end of a legal hit, IMO. McNabb's lobbying had something to do with it. Being switched to LB, which many thought was a better fit at the NFL level, was not going to work immediately. In fact there are a slew of college rush ends that are/have been converted. It's something of a trend. It pretty much makes any such draftee a project. Many of college football's best pass rushers are these hybrid players. Maybin, Coleman, Moats, Batten on the Bills, Orakpo, English, Scot are some others. Watch Steve Means at UB. He is a 240 lb. end that will probably get a shot at the NFL under similar circumstances. The punkish behavior is not atypical. It's lifestyles of the young, rich and famous. Remember the "Love Boat" in Minnesota? I'm sure there has been plenty of cross border traffic by the Bills players over the last few decades. In his defense he is not married and did not commit a crime and I did not hear any report of him mistreating any of his "guests." That being said, I think his career would benefit from some maturity sooner rather than later.

To say it kindly, he is an "unpolished" football player and human being. In his defense I can remember a young Bills player that used to act like an idiot after every nice play he made. It was embarrassing to see it. One time he laid flat on the field, pounding the turf and flopping around like a fish-out-of-water. He had a four game drug suspension and the Bills supposedly hired someone to tail him because he was hanging around with some questionable characters. His ego was huge before he did anything in the NFL and he was known as a tough personality for the press to deal with. Given all that, he would develop into the best defender in Bill's history and one of the best in the history of the NFL. I think he married well. I'll choose to wait and see on Maybin.

I read the entire thing and I generally like the "metrics" angle to analysis. At least some opinions are based on something real. That said I have two comments: 1) The past is a good predictor of the future up until it isn't. For instance I think it is entirely likely that the Bills get comparable QB play to the 'phins and the Jets. Assumptions about their situations are projections based on little evidence. Heck, JP had a better 8 game stretch than any of those three. 2) There is no "i" in Schatz but there should be. At least that's his tone toward every move this franchise has made. He really has no "metric" to evaluate those.

Freddy has always tended toward the more bombastic takes on situations. I remember he talked about how there would be "more lilly pads floating in Lake Erie" when asked about players crossing the picket line during the strike. His buddy Jim Haslet was one who ended up crossing. I wonder how that went over. I think Fred's radio show is the perfect forum for the way he thinks. To say that Chan Gailey is a coach that "no one knows" is more of the same. Most fans that have paid attention to the NFL over the last two decades would have at least heard the name numerous times. What he lacks is a well publicized reputation with which most could identify him. He doesn't seem like much of a self promoter to me. He seems principled and competent but not flashy. Being one who much prefers substance over style, I feel like he is going to be an effective leader. He doesn't need to act like he's in charge he just is. I could envision that being a problem in Dallas given the personalities on the declining team he inherited.

Definitions of addition on the Web: a component that is added to something to improve it; "the addition of a bathroom was a major improvement"; "the addition of cinnamon improved the flavor" a quantity that is added; "there was an addition to property taxes this year"; "they recorded the cattle's gain in weight over a period of weeks" accession: something added to what you already have; "the librarian shelved the new accessions"; "he was a new addition to the staff" a suburban area laid out in streets and lots for a future residential area summation: the arithmetic operation of summing; calculating the sum of two or more numbers; "the summation of four and three gives seven"; "four plus three equals seven" wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn Addition is a mathematical operation that represents combining collections of objects together into a larger collection. It is signified by the plus sign (+). ... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Addition or in logical operator (sequent) notation: The argument form has one premise, A, and an unrelated proposition, B. From the premise it can be logically concluded that either A or B is true, or both are true. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Addition_(logic) The act of adding anything; Anything that is added; The process of adding en.wiktionary.org/wiki/addition additional - extra: further or added; "called for additional troops"; "need extra help"; "an extra pair of shoes" wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwnadditional - Supplemental or added to en.wiktionary.org/wiki/additional An extension or increase in the conditioned space of a building. www.nachi.org/glossary.htm an adding of two or more numbers to get a number called the sum Example: 5+5 = 10 10 is the sum www.allmath.com/glossary.php a term used in reference to --> enhancement. A genuine addition of new stock (eg stocking artificial reefs) [in: Stocking and introduction of fish, edited by IG Cowx, 1998]. www.qub.ac.uk/bb-old/prodohl/TroutConcert/fr_glossary.htm Maybe this helps. Pay special attention to the bolded captions.

The Athlon grades are fair. Any new coaching staff gets a C in my book. Reputation from a previous stint doesn't impress me much. Spurrier, Saban, Carroll, Ditka, Gibbs II, etc. It's more about finding a place with the right organizational support and a QB that has franchise talent and a knack of staying healthy and/or productive while hurt. The changes to the D front 7 are way overlooked. The tendency is to say new scheme = less productivity. I say when your at the bottom as run defenders you are likely to have nowhere to go but up. The bigger bodies they have added will see to that. They were too small on the edges IMO. It's tough to believe the O could be as bad as last year. Just being healthy and having another years worth of experience should create some improvement. A head coach with an offensive pedigree should mean something. Having a run first mentality is the right move. Now if they can just have an abnormal run of windy game days they could really surprise the football world.

The point is this. Whether Gailey or Cowher is the HC or whether Modkins or Gailey has the title of OC, Chan Gailey is in charge of turning the offense around. It will be his offense, his QB decision, his plays and gameplans, and his gameday playcalls. People can be upset that Cowher was not hired but either way it is likely that Chan was going to be the man in charge of the offense.

I think it is entirely possible that if the Bills had hired Bill Cowher that his choice for OC would have been............Chan Gailey.

As the story goes, he got the last scholarship Penn St. had to offer that year. Their staff recruiter came to watch him play a high school basketball game and offered him thereafter. I, for one, was shocked he chose football. I thought he was a better baseball player and would have been a super athletic catcher. He was scouted and had a baseball scholarship offer from Arizona, I believe. One Monday nighter they played at KC and the Bills lost pretty bad as Derrick Thomas had a big night. Shane had a good game as he was constantly colliding with Christian Okoye in the hole. He was probably giving up 30+ lbs. to the "Nigerian Nightmare." I remember Frank Gifford saying that Shane had earned a long stay in the Jacuzzi that night. I couldn't help but think about that game when I saw him at a Frewsburg high school basketball game a few seasons ago. He wasn't moving too well and appeared much older than he is. Human bodies just aren't meant to play NFL football. There is a price to pay.

Naaman has great body control. Just from having watched him he seems to play bigger by maintaitining great position vs. his defender(s.) That Hail Mary play where he beat 3 defenders illustrates the point. He maintains great position and then beats the defender to the ball. From the little I have seen of Hardy that was his biggest problem. As big as he is he should never let a defender beat him to the ball. I think he can make the practice squad this year and he can eventually make the roster if he develops more upper body bulk to play with the NFL DBs. Good luck Naaman.

Given the release of TO and Reed and the unknown quality of Hardy and Johnson and the fact that the Bills drafted one guy and signed one veteran free agent there should be opportunity for an UFA WR to make this team. Naaman made a good choice. Given the change in defense there should be some opportunity for front 7 defenders of the 3-4 variety to displace the 4-3 defenders favored by the prevous regime. With a new GM and coaching staff they have no reason to have any misplaced loyalty to the guys drafted by and favored by the previous regime. I think there is lots of opportunity for UFA's to make this roster.

I hope it's CJ Spiller "the Patriot Killer!"

The fact that he is still with the team makes me think he had little input into who actually was chosen. The evidence would have been there as to what type of information he was providing. His board might have said Orakpo or Oher and someone might have pushed the choice in a different direction. He certainly would not have been responsible for pulling the trigger on trades.

I love the concept. Those players in those spots would be statistically unlikely but having 6 picks in the first 107 should make any Bill's fan happy. I personally think that the rookie salary bonus system and the uncertainty in evaluating still developing talent makes the draft value board unrealistic and that's why we don't see many trades of this type anymore. If the Bills have a superior board they could get maybe 6 of the top 80 players in the draft. If this group can't put together an "A" draft board, the next 10 years will be the same or worse than the last 10.

Here's my thoughts: He was just as good against Pitt, Missouri and Penn State, IMO. He makes great ball adjustments which is a great skill to have. It allows him to play "bigger" than he is. I thought James Hardy looked very weak in this regard, moslty giving away his size advantage. I read some mixed reviews of his Shrine game practice sessions. Route running was mentioned as a weakness. I wonder if having knee surgery at the end of his 2009 season could have lessened his cutting ability a couple months later. He has no problem getting open in the MAC. Body catches were also mentioned. If the throw is on the body I think that is the best way to make the catch. It is secured quicker and it's not as likely to be an INT. If it's not on the body then the hands need to snatch the ball on the run. From what I saw he has no prblem doing that at all. He is smart, has great hands, and is not a prima donna, WR headcase. With more upperbody mass/strenghth he can see the field in the NFL. I think he will draw an NFL paycheck in 2010 if only as a practice squad player.

Just posted something similar over at BB.com. They have opened roster spots and have not filled it with a FA signing. I had just heard Mike Mayock talking about Thomas and how hard he may be able to evaluate due to his foot and the offense GT ran. The Bills might already think they have all the information on him that they need. Two gaping holes and the least proven talent on the roster is expected to step up. Somehere in the first three rounds seems like a slam dunk. If they have a guy evaluated high enough on their board, I can see them taking him at 9 and then getting some of the big man depth in the subsequent picks. Get the 4th or 5th best tackle or the highest rated WR on their board?

I am not so sure about 3-4 or 4-3 distinctions. It would boil down to this. What 3rd down alignmnets would the Bills favor? I think with most nickel and dime packages they would favor 4 man fronts anyhow. The 3-4 is favored on 1st down but probably not on 3rd and long or in short yardage. Having a great 4-3 DE would still work out very well on the most important down in football. Maybe things have changed since the 3-4 days I remember.