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JESSEFEFFER

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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER

  1. 18 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

    Cam Newton - 2015 MVP (age 26)

     

    Cam 6-5 245

    Josh 6-5 237 (currently age 28)

     

    Cam 2015 - Car record 15-1; 296 Completions for 3837 yards (12.96 yards/catch) 35 TDs & 10 ints + 132 carries for 636 yards (4.82 yards/carry) & 10 TDs

    Josh 2024 (YTD) - Bills Record 11-3; 275 Completions for 3395 yards (12.35 yards/catch) 25 tds & 5 ints + 91 carries for 484 yards (5.32 yards/carry) & 11 TDs

    Josh projected - 334 completions for 4125 yards, 30 TDs & 6 ints + 111 carries for 591 yards & 13 Tds

     

    I'd say those are very similar MVP caliber seasons by very similar players.  Josh has a higher completion % and Josh seems to actually getting better, while Cam's game began to deteriorate following his MVP campaign.  Cam remained a good QB for the next 3 years, but never got close to the MVP season again.  Josh is also the better QB and player, but the similarities and hard to ignore.

    This is right.  Prime Cam Newton did not last long and Josh will have many more seasons on par with that.  They do similarly rare things but Josh is slightly to solidly better at almost all QB things.

  2. I picked the throw to Cook.  Some QBs would need to come to more of a stop and square their hips to make that throw to even a stationary target.  That lets the pursuing defender close and maybe affect the play.  Josh makes that throw without slowing down, side arms it like a shortstop to first base but Cook is moving to the right and Josh hits him in his chest.   Don't see many throws like that even attempted.

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  3. 13 hours ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

    The Bills are really good team built to contend year in and year out.

     

    (Congrats and thank you, McBeane.)

     

    That said, I hate the fact that if something bad happens, which I refuse to name, we would basically be out of Super Bowl contention with Mr. T at the helm.
     

    I’d love to see us draft someone in the mid to late rounds that had some special traits and/or tons of game experience that we could build a scheme for to try and at least give ourselves a chance. 
     

    What do you think and who might fit the bill in this upcoming draft?

     

    If he fell far enough (who knows at this stage?) I’d take a crack at Dylan Gabriel from Oregon. Watching the Big 10 championship and I could see him excelling in the right scheme surrounded by the right people.

     

    What say you?
     

     

    No point to doing that unless they were to keep 3 QBs on the 53.   No late round rookie is going to be Josh's primary backup, imo.

  4. So many times a great player is capable of doing something that a defender can't anticipate.  It was an overthrow for most all NFL WRs.  A DB with eyes on the ball would not even read Jefferson getting a hand to  it.   It's like all those defenders taking bad angles on Josh and whiffing on the tackle.   They misread the threat.

  5. 3 hours ago, Success said:

    I haven't counted, but I have to be over 2 dozen at this point.

     

    He has given us MANY great moments - but that was as impactful as any play he has had in the regular season, imo.  For starters, just about everyone in the country was watching at that point of the game.  The stakes were pretty high- if we don't pick up that 4th down, with just over 2 minutes to go, it's not a stretch to predict what probably would have happened.  And now, instead of playing out the string with very little consequence, we're right in the mix for the 1 seed.

     

    I also heard a pundit say yesterday that if the MVP race is close at all at the end, that play alone will put him over the top.

     

    Also, it's fun to note that he started that run at the 37 yard line.

    Watch Mack Hollins on the play.  Looks like he is calling a TD when Josh hits the 15.

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  6. I like how Josh slipped in the fact that he made the tackle after the interception.  I saw you Josh and I bet you will point that out loudly in the film review too.  Flashback to rookie year Josh Allen week 17 vs. the Dolphins.  Josh had a 5 TD game, Kyle Williams got to catch a pass and Josh got fooled by a robber coverage for a pick 6 TD just before halftime, one of two for his career (can't remember the other one.)  The thing about it was that Josh made the tackle attempt on that play with an all too serious karate chop at the ball.  He does those moves in practices too and I think he will get one out at some point in his career or damage the defender trying, ala Jim Kelly.  The fastest I ever saw Jim  move was when he was chasing down an interception return.

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  7. 6 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

    Is there anything harder to predict that a kicker's future importance?  I've forgotten the name of the kicker Buffalo drafted one year (Gary something or other).  He was 0 fer in preseason and Buffalo felt forced to release him.  He signed shortly thereafter with Pittsburgh and had a Hall of Fame career.  Bass is struggling right now.  It's probably a mental thing.  Who knows when or if he'll snap out of it.  Sometimes a team change will help.  Same thing with Havrisik.  Maybe with a fresh start on a new team he'll be better.  There are no guarantees though.

    Gary Anderson was drafted by the Bills.  He had played at Syracuse and I read a story somewhere, likely at TBD, that he had missed his preseason kicks on purpose to get the Bills to release him and then he could find his own career opportunity.  That's a power move if true and it fits that agents often tell their clients that it is better to be a UDFA where you can pick the situation you think is best for your career even though being drafted is an ego boost.

  8. In a desperation move, Tyler should have his vision checked, ala Ricky Vaughn.  I was developing astigmatism in my later teens and did not know it.  Regular vision checks were not a thing then and maybe not now.  I could hit fastballs again with corrected vision.  Maybe Tyler is randomly missing the sweet spot between foot and ball.

     

    image.png.6a1d3e00eb15be23ba8a384430312c47.png

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  9. 14 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

    Feels like they usually give a reset in that situation

    An official was standing over the ball waiting for a ready signal from the referee as the play clock expired.  Shades of Rex Ryan Bills in Seattle.

  10. 20 minutes ago, Cash said:


    Slightly off-topic, but I think Allen has a pretty strong chance to win MVP this year. Obviously a lot has to go right for that to happen, but the national perception/narrative is set up in Allen’s favor. With us losing Diggs/Davis/et al, the team is expected to take a step back on both offense and defense. IF the Bills keep winning at the same pace as the last few years, it’s probably because Allen is putting up big numbers - totals, efficiency, or both. 
     

    In that scenario, the MVP voters will tend to give Allen 100% of the credit for the team still being good, and likely will be writing about how Allen is making a bunch of nobodies look good. 

    I agree with this.  Also, given the schedule, he has a chance to outshine Mahomes, Jackson, Stroud, Stafford, Purdy, Murray, Lawrence, Goff, Herbert, Rodgers(2X) and Tua (2X)  in head to head matchups.  The visual of having a decent record and beating most of those teams would make a powerful case for him.

  11. 8 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

    One of the "coaches an executives" actually voted Josh in tier 3!  That is so laughably ridiculous that whoever made that vote should never be allowed near a football team again.

     

    That must be someone that overvalues robotic QB play.

  12. The Athletic just published a tier ranking of 30 NFL QBs (rookies are excluded) as determined from a composite tier ranking of 50 NFL coaches and executives.  Josh was in Tier 1, as expected, but his composite score was 1.2 which means approximately 10 of the 50 would have had him in Tier 2, but below Joe Burrow.  This is interesting in that one might consider the profile of those choosing Tier 2.  Josh is something of a loose cannon at times and there would be those that are scared by that and might consider it a flaw. 

     

    Anyways, this brings me to the Pro Football Reference side by side comparison of Josh and Patrick over their last 4 years which was something I wanted to present to previous discussions.  Big difference in YAC favoring Patrick and rushing yards/TDs favoring Josh.  Lots to consider there.

     

    One can isolate regular season or post season numbers.  YAC is the biggest difference, imo, as it is a difference of over 3,000 yards.  It makes me wonder if the WR room was more reconstructed with an eye toward improving the YAC in the offense.  This is something we haven't seen much evidence of at this point, but it might be the secret sauce to a Bills offensive improvement over previous years.

     

    Pro Football Reference Josh vs. Patrick --Years 2020 thru 2023

     

     

     

     

    Screenshot 2024-08-26 102612.jpg

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  13. Warren Sharp has a nice reputation but I would want to know

     

    1) Are the Bills worse in the RZ than average?

     

    2) Are the Bills worse in 1st and goal situations than average?

     

    3) How does Josh's success running the ball in these situations negatively impact his EPA as a passer?  More TDs running means less TDs passing and that has to impact EPA.  But, by how much?  Quantify it then tell me about about your conclusion.

     

    4) I suspect that QBR trumps passing EPA in this regard.  I do not know if that split exists but, if it does and he still ranks at the bottom, then ok, Warren has a point.  If not, and QBR is near the middle or toward the top, I say BS on his conclusion.

  14. 1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

    You need a certain amount of bodies at each position to fill the camp roster. They “neglected” it because they didn’t care about the quality of those bodies. So while they added some bodies, as every single team does, they neglected the need for quality. Not sure what’s strange?

     

    Shakir has some ability but is a former 5th rounder with some production in a limited role. He’s now a focal point. We are calling Samuel a “priority FA” and he got a fraction of the contract of Gabe. Coleman was the 8th guy taken, period. If the Bills were higher on him, they wouldn’t have moved down once, let alone twice, risking the opportunity to take him. They obviously didn’t love the prospect. I don’t hate the idea of taking some former busts (Hamler, Claypool, Isabella, etc) and having them compete for the last spot. The Bills planned on needing those guys. That’s a failed strategy (again not surprising).

     

    If you were to rank these WRs (WRs only) against the rest of the NFL, where would you have them? I’m on record that this group is between 30-32. If you are as high as it seems, please list the NFL teams that you believe are worse at WR than the 2024 Buffalo Bills (hint: it’s a VERY short list). 

     

    1)  I will quote the last line of my previous post: "We won't know what this group is until they play real games with QB1 running the show.  This was to be the case regardless of what they did or did not do to overhaul the position."

     

    2)  So is Diggs.

     

    3) As of the TB game last year, Shakir likely played 70+% of snaps.  They gave him a bigger role last year and he produced.

     

    4) In the tradition of John Brown, Cole Beasley and Robert Foster, I expect Curtis Samuel to play the best football of his NFL career in an offense run by Josh Allen.  I think he is likely to out-produce Gabe Davis regardless of the value of the contracts they signed.

     

    5) I don't think they planned on needing any of those guys.  They had 2nd round athletic pedigrees and the Bills were hoping to improve the depth on their 53 and practice squad with them.  Maybe one pops and earns a bigger gameday role, an opportunity likely generated by injury to someone else, and that's when they become needed but I do not think any one of them was counted on for a big role in the offense at signing.

     

    6) Refer to answer #1.

     

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