metzelaars_lives

Yet this thread is three pages and counting... Full of the usual suspects who love to jump all over this topic to tell everyone that they don't care. If there was a thread about Jonathan Meeks' rehab, I wouldn't open it or comment because I REALLY wouldn't care.

Everyone on this thread needs to get over themselves once and for all. Yes the guy talks about analytics and not punting fairly regularly. We've established that. Well for one he's right about the not punting as much thing- which I thought was fairly academic until this thread when everyone was all, "hell yeah I applaud Marrone for punting on 4th and 1 from the Patriots 40 in a meaningless game with a chance to seal the game- we won the game damn it." But what no one is able to understand is that he talks about Buffalo sports for over 20 hours week. What new and earth-shattering topics did you want him to talk about? And when they try and have fun and do something non-sports related (which all other respected sports guys have been doing for quite some time- Bill Simmons, Dan Patrick, et al), someone starts a thread bashing them for that.

song remains the same is not a zeppelin album. It is a great movie and great tune though.

Casey Weldon not only became the starting qb at Florida state, he won a heisman too.

You can go out tonight and rip juicy farts at a bar and maybe you meet a chick who is into it and she goes home with you. That doesn't necessarily mean that ripping juicy farts is a good way to pick up girls at bars.

thank you. Although I would argue that the odds of getting that yard outweighs the importance of holding them to a 60 yard drive as opposed to an 80 yard drive. Just get the freaking yard and end the game.

And if our defense was dominating them then why would be scared to defend them starting at the 40 instead of the 20. Do you realize we gave them the ball to save 20 yards of field position at the expense of probably sealing the game with one yard. This does not take a college level probability course to understand.

Yeah no s***. Tom Brady's career % on 1 yard to go QB sneaks is something like 98%. But according to PTR we are 25% on 3rd/4th and 1's despite the fact that we are 36 and 43% on all 3rd and 4th downs.

Alright you guys win. I will talk to you tomorrow when your heads are ringing after partying all night celebrating the Bills' 17-9 victory after scoring 0 points in the second half against a team basically playing a preseason game. They better get a better QB for 2015 because they cannot afford to waste another season with this defense. And it will be amazing again next year, I have no doubt. Sam Bradford is my guy. I guess we'll see.

I'm looking right now but can't find it. But considering the worst team in the league averages 4.6 yards/play and 2 point conversions are executed at a 49% clip, logically I would venture to guess that the success rate for every team is at least if not well over 50% on 1 yard to go situations. Probably 60%. And again, if you're punting fine, then thrown on 3rd. He was basically saying, "dude I cannot wait to punt here, it's gonna be awesome. Save 20 yards in field position at the expense of ending the game with one yard? I am licking my chops to trot Schmidt out there." No it's below average. BUT THAT IS 3RD AND ALL SITUATIONS. LIKE INCLUDING 3RD AND 18's. YOU SAID THE CHANCES OF THEM CONVERTING 3RD AND 1's IS LESS THAN 25%. It was an utterly preposterous statement. Dude it wasn't 4th and 7, it was 4th and 1. And it was an exhibition game. And they were in New England territory. And 1 yard wins it. This is becoming very frustrating.

The Bills are 43% on all 4th downs, which again, includes 4th and all situations. Every team in the history of football has a better than 50% chance of getting one yard in any situation ever. You guys are just not math people, are you?

If you really think the Bills have converted at less than a 25% clip on one yard to go situations in 2014, I think it's best we just call it a night. They converted at 36% of all 3rd downs all season- which includes all 3rd downs, 3rd and long, etc. I am sorry my friend but you are misinformed on this one.

You don't think that Doug Marrone is that conservative. I don't think the offensive line was that bad today. That is the crux of our disagreement. I still like you though. I know you are a respected and old school poster. Oh what do you know, the Bengals just went for it on 4th and 1 on the 41. And they got it. Well they average more than one yard per play. Tell ya what, look up the numbers for NFL teams in 2014 on 1 yard to go situations and tell me what the percentages are. I'm sure they're well over 60%. Maybe 70. I know 2 point conversions are around 49 or so. And again, the o-line played fine today. And if you are punting on 4th if you don't get it on 3rd, then why did they run up the middle on 3rd? Somebody please tell me this.

I didn't know he said that. What was his reasoning? Is there a context involved here? God I hate these anti-violence commercials where the actors can't compose themselves. What do they do with the actor who comes in to speak about violence and is relatively composed? It's so insultingly contrived.

I don't know how you could be any more conservative than Doug Marrone has been this season. I really, honestly don't. Again, I think 9 wins certainly earns him another season but when did he make any decision involving the clock or a play he called that you could use the word "innovative" to describe? Which is what Whaley and Marrone promised us? Which Schopp likes to point out frequently and I agree with him. You see, they have a better than 50% chance of getting one yard on two plays. You get that one yard, game essentially over. Instead you make a decision that gives them a 100% chance of getting the ball back- all for trading 20 yards of field position. Within two plays, they're right back to where the Bills punted from! And the offensive line played pretty good today fwiw. I am not "go for it on your own 30 on 4th down because analytics and number crunchers say so" guy. In this situation, we're talking pure common sense.

Uhh I never said nor do I think Marrone should be fired. If you disagree with me about him needing to be a little more aggressive with his play calling next year then let's just agree to disagree. Geez this place became the Doug Marrone fan club all of a sudden. EDIT: Ya know what? No. All coaches do not punt in that situation. Of course all coaches play the field position game but that was pathetic. If they were planning on punting then throw on 3rd down. The game didn't count, you realize this, right? If it was a playoff game perhaps I would have gone along with it. Hopefully we get a real QB in next year who would laugh at Marrone for calling the run up the gut on 3rd when you know you're punting on 4th and audible the play at the line. My God, is this not still the same board of people who chastised the now infamous slide by Orton a few weeks back?? What happened to you people? I suppose if they would've won that game, people would've been defending the slide too.

I did not intend to start an argument on this thread so if it looks like I did, I apologize. Let's agree on a bunch of things: I wanted to win today. Very badly actually, as I had money at stake. I am really glad they won and I agree that 9-7 is a big step forward. I already said the defense played fantastic today- I don't care who it was up against. Orton looked great for most of the first half. Great. All I said (or I guess meant to say) was that their offense did not inspire me in the second half and it felt like kind of an empty win. Punting on that 4th and 1 was absolutely inexcusable and I'm sure Schopp would agree with me on that. You got Jacksonville throwing laterals to receivers who are throwing touchdowns and meanwhile we run up the gut on 3rd and 1 and then punt with a chance to go for the jugular. Both of us playing meaningless games. Does anyone here feel any better about Marrone or Orton after this win than they did before it? I don't. EDIT: Also in my original post that you quoted, I said that I like Schopp and Bulldog better than the afternoon drive guys where I live, which is twice the market size of Buffalo. Al and D-Mac in Denver. Complete and utter jabronis.

See what I just wrote. Every game is not as simple as win/lose. You could go into New England and lose 28-27 with a full New England squad and walk away with your heads held high. You could host Jacksonville and bumble your way to a cheesy win kinda like they did against Minnesota this year. This was a GARBAGE win today and they should be embarrassed with their offensive play and lack of innovation in the second half. The defense was great and I bet Schopp acknowledged that.

I didn't even listen to Schopp today but you are clearly oversimplifying what I'm sure he said. That win was pathetic. If they would've showed any sort of balls and went for the jugular in the second half and scored another TD or two, myself and, I'm sure, Mike Schopp would probably feel much better about the win today. Excuse us for not doing cartwheels. If that Pats product was their team every week, they would've gone 5-11 at best.

Don't get me wrong, schopp irks me sometimes too. My biggest issue with him is that he overdoes the hockey analytics thing and is very smug about it. Why don't you try watching a maple leafs game instead of telling everyone they're not any good because their puck possession is 2% lower than average. That being said, I think his takes are generally smart and I agree with him much more often than I don't.

I am sick and tired of people complaining about schopp and the bulldog and not telling us what they don't like about them. I happen to think they're pretty good. They have to talk about sports 20+ hours a week in a 2 sport town. I can assure you that the drive time guys in Denver are both less knowledgeable and more annoying than schopp and the bulldog. Without listening let me guess- he is not enthused about the win and he can't believe marrone punted on that 4th and 1. Do you disagree with him?

Exactly. Anyone who says otherwise is a moron.

OK you can spin it that way if you'd like- that QB hits is the be all end all statistic that defines OL play, while ignoring sacks allowed and YPC. Remember in 2012 when CJ Spiller averaged 6 yards a carry?

Nope. With Fitzpatrick they were at the very bottom of the league in sacks allowed and at the very top of the league in YPC for two straight years. They were, by any calculation, a top 5 OL in the league. Cue the Fitzpatrick had a magically fast delivery counter-argument...

Well the good news is that putting together a competent offensive line is a hell of a lot easier than finding a stable starting QB. The Bills could just as easily have a good offensive line next year without really changing that much- draft a guard, sign a FA, someone develops, they start to gel, etc. I'm not the least bit worried about it. People quickly forget that just a few years ago they had one of the best offensive lines in the league. At the risk of beating a dead horse, it's all about the QB.