Thurman#1

First, your logic in no way follows from evidence to conclusion. Saying we should keep Cook no matter what he costs because the Bills have done well when they run a lot is like saying that eating oranges is really good and healthy for you and therefore you need to buy this particular orange right now despite the $500 price tag and the fact it’s got a huge black spot on it. Doesn’t follow. You’re right, Beane’s not stupid. Not at all. That’s why he refuses to get over-focused on something he wants and greatly overpay for it. Beane has a consistent habit of drawing the line and not going over it. It’s how he does business, and it’s smart. More, you’re very clearly showing how little you let your evidence affect your conclusions. Your prejudices are clearly visible. You say that in 2021 that when they lost to Tampa and then, according to you, they “ran more than any other team becoming the best running team in the league. They did not lose again.” That’s an extremely clear case of letting a pre-judgment deeply twist your conclusions in ways the evidence just doesn’t support. Not even close. (Just as a sidebar, pretending the evidence really does support that turning to the run caused these results, was Cook on the team then? Wait, we got these great run results with Singletary, Moss, Breida and Taiwan Jones? Well then what do we need Cook for?) Anyway, what the facts show is that when they were going according to game plans early, they passed far more often than they ran with the exception of the final game against the hapless Jets.. That’s why they had (reasonably) high run attempts. CAROLINA in the first half, 25 pass attempts, including two sacks along with 9 runs. They started off mostly passing and got way ahead and then started running more. In the first half, Up 17-8 at halftime and 25-8 by the end of the 3rd NEW ENGLAND Don’t need to spend time separating the halves. We threw 47 passes and ran 28 times in this game. ATLANTA In the first half the Bills ran 23 pass attempts including two scrambles and 12 runs (also including the scrambles). Then the second half was mostly runs. NJ JETS In this game, the Bills ran 46 passes and 33 runs. In the first half, 26 pass attempts and 14 runs, but that’s deceptive. We got the ball with 1:39 left in the half at our own 16 and ran 10 pass attempts in a row. Take out that drive and it was 16 passes and 14 runs. But again, overall 46 passes and 33 runs. Pretending that they did really well down the stretch of that season because they ran a lot? Flat-out ridiculous.

All for paying Cook if he accepts reasonable value. If he won't accept $15M per year, thanks for your hard work, James. But in any case, he'll be here this year. The problem is next year.

Keon and Dalton didn't show up to the playoffs because both were injured pretty badly. Keon had a broken wrist and Dalton couldn't move well with his leg problems. And the idea that Beane signed Amari out of desperation is purely from your own imagination. Maybe it seemed like a good deal, and a good chance to try out a guy who might be terrific, possibly even so terrific that we'd extend his contract or sign him for another year or two. Same with the idea that Amari was responsible for the improvement. Allen started the year with one WR he'd ever worked with before and a bunch of very young guys as the keys. Being surprised it took a few weeks for them all to get on the same page is like being shocked by snow in the wintertime in Buffalo. If Amari was the reason for all that improvement, how come when he was off the field (which was a lot), there was no fall-off in performance? The correct answer? Because it wasn't "the Amari Cooper effect." It was the team starting to work together better. Cooper helped a bit, but the idea that he was the one behind all the improvement is flat-out ridiculous. Wrong question. It just is. The question is this: Is there an NFL team with a weaker passing game than the Bills? The answer is nearly all of them. It's been said before a million times, most recently by Beane, but a million times before that. The goal in football is to have the best team. Not the best wide receiver group.

Diggs improved quite a lot in production when he came to Buffalo. Amari Cooper produced significantly better with Dak than he did in Oakland. Randy Moss was a ton better in NE than with the Raiders, though it did look to me like he was dogging it after a while in the Silver and Black. Welker was massively better when he got with Brady. It happens. But yeah, you're right that you can't assume it will. Sometimes it happens and plenty of other times it doesn't.

It's really not hypocritical. Not at all. Saying you don't have a need at WR and then signing a WR isn't necessarily even contradictory. You can feel that we don't have an absolute need, but that we could get better with the right deal. This is probably the most common situation a GM deals with. You don't have a need but you're willing to get better in the right situation. Then the right deal comes along. That right deal might be picking a guy at the right value for the pick in the draft, or at the right value in an FA contract.

It doesn't substantiate squat. It's related, but it's not like if you don't draft guys, there's no other way to get players, the draft is the only way. How thrilled the Chiefs must be that they spent 2018 6th on Tremon Smith 2019 2nd on Mecole Hardman 2021 5th on Cornell Power 2022 2nd on Skyy Moore 2023 2nd on Rashee Rice 2024 1st on Xavier Worthy 2025 4th on Jalen Royals Look at the massive results they've reaped off all that WR effort!! Maybe Royals will be sensational. Or not. Same with Worthy. Maybe. When on the field, Rice has looked good. But there's not a lot of production there. Their terrific QB, though, has made things work despite that. Which should sound familiar. That could definitely be the reason. Or not. Maybe it was a good opportunity at the right price and the right time. Point is, though, that Beane DID spend a third on a WR, Amari, and it's not counted in this method of looking at WR draft results. Nor is our using a 1st rounder on Stefon Diggs, again something that we did do despite it not showing up if you use the method for looking at draft results used in this thread.

And the third they spent on Amari?

Probably WR, safety and LB if Milano isn't healthy. None are awful.

I don't believe that for a second. They're a cerebral group. And if you really want someone, you've decided he's your #1, one of the first things you do after that is game out what you do if he's gone. It just doesn't make sense that they haven't done that, well before the draft. They've got a board, they'd just follow it. We heard this about CB a year or two ago, that the reason they picked Elam was that McDuffie was gone and they "panicked." It's ridiculous. I am quite willing to believe that they wanted McDuffie and were deeply disappointed. But that they panicked is ridiculous. They'd put together their board. They grabbed the next guy on it. It was a mistake and he didn't work out, that's clear, but it wasn't panic that caused the problem. Making wrong decisions? Yeah, everybody does, and they certainly have. This could be one, as could any decision. But just not deciding in advance what they'd do if their guy is gone? Nah. Not gonna happen. Enjoy the free time, Gunner. Fabulous stuff.

D.J. Moore? Steve Smith? Beane's Carolina career goes back to 1998. The highest he's ever picked a WR is 24th, with Moore. Not so surprising, then.

Dunno. Probably a few. We'll see.

If that's what he's trying to show, I don't think it shows that. Of course teams run more in January. And of course when opponents are ahead they run more. Generally teams will give up more run yards in a loss , as down the end the other team will be running at a higher percentage if they're ahead. This argument might show slightly less causation. It doesn't show none. Teams that are ahead by seven ... are ahead. Late in the game teams that are ahead are going to run more. Not as much as they'd run if they were ahead by 20. But more than they'd run if they were behind. It's absolutely showing some causation. DaQuan sure did look pretty done last year. I'm hoping there was some reason, but age-related regression seems the most likely cause. Marino thought that bringing in Sanders meant that the Bills are likely to be moving Carter over to more 1-tech this year. That seems possible. And bringing in Deone ought to mellow the "we must have a giant 1-tech or the sky is falling" crowd.

You're likely going to be unhappy for a long long long time, hopefully through several championships.

Greatly doubt it. The tag price even this year would be over $14M. I think if he won't sign they'll let him look for something better and come back if our offer starts to look good to him. That's his standard procedure. We have a ton of weapons outside of Cook. They may not be up to your standard, but we were the #2 scoring offense in football last year, and Kincaid and Coleman were badly held back by injuries. When you've got Josh Allen throwing the ball, everyone scares you. If you've instead got someone like Tua, you'd better bring in some weapons.

Yup. And yeah, this too. A day or two of camp at the most. Wait and see. Holding out after year three is really rare.

So your argument is that things will be different this year, and that all of the differences will obviously be negative and that things therefore will obviously get worse? That's just as lazy. Maybe the differences will be that Coleman and Kincaid, healthy, will take major steps upward, and that Palmer will bring in significantly more yards and scores than Hollins, our most productive non-Coleman, non-Shakir receiver. The offense has been terrific for years now.

Roster malpractice? Puh-leeze! One of the elite offenses last year and they've added to the receiver room with Joshua Palmer strengthening a very young, developing group. Just because you want something doesn't mean it's malpractice for them not to get it. The passing offense was good last year and again, they've added Palmer, and Coleman and Kincaid healthier and savvier, they should be fine. Roster malpractice is a wild exaggeration.

I don't think so. He's been in and out and it does seem to connect with how much he concentrates on it in the offseason. After I believe year 3 he mentioned dropping it into the bucket on the long ball as an offseason goal, and he absolutely did get a lot better. He's been up and down with this and he made some big longer throws last year, not including the giant throws mentioned above. I think it's as simple as the fact that fans are way more focused on this than the Bills are, and that's why the board grouses about needing major speed while Beane and the office don't think it's a major need.

This is ALSO what Landon Jackson going head to head with the #4 overall pick looks like. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_qv3fO-Qzi4 Just sayin'.

Ahhhhh. That makes much more sense.

If there's one thing we do know about this regime, it's when they can't tell the truth, instead they just don't answer the question. They wouldn't lie to a handful of guys. I doubt they lie to anyone about anything this momentous in a kid's life, and if they did, we'd have heard about it before. I don't doubt for a second, though, that people hear things that aren't said sometimes. Could the Bills have said something like, "We're really interested in you and we think you're a first round value. If you're available, we'd think about it awfully hard," and the guy perceives that as a promise? IMO, yeah, that absolutely happens and could have happened here. OTOH maybe they really did say it. Who knows, beyond Beane or whoever Williams was listening to?

I'd never seen that before. Thanks for posting it. Man, that one where the fans are yelling "Sapp, Sapp," and they go TE ... oh, man, the fans knew and the team didn't. If it were any other team it would be painful to watch.

Nope. Wide open. Possible, but plenty of others are also possible.

The years they were healthy those safeties looked damn good at playoff time, damn good. Less so against Mahomes when he was getting four seconds and more to throw, but there really isn't much of a way to handle Mahomes with a ton of time. If we can get a bit of a pass rush, with Bosa and some others, more effective safety play could make a huge difference. Not that I expect a safety in the 2nd, I don't. But yeah, I do think it could help us make a big jump up down the line. DT or DE, please. That'd be my choice. Maybe even both.

Always worth checking in with Astro on this subject. He's on it as usual. Just as a for example, he says they guy they looked a lot at with our third pick, our second 2nd, is Josaiah Stewart. https://buffalofambase.com/2025/03/18/pick-six-for-2025-nfl-draft-march/