Thurman#1

He doesn't need any of them. They came within a dropped pass of the Super Bowl and the offense was really productive this year. Who would fit best when they try to improve? A route-runner, smooth, with good top speed, IMO. A Diggs type without the neediness, I think.

Not really clear what he means by this. That figure isn't the Bills PPG. Or even the Bills franchise PPG over the last five years. It's the Bills PPG with all of their wins removed, in the last five years. What's it being compared to? One game PPGs? Total franchise PPGs? Total franchise PPGs in the last five years? Total franchise PPGs in the last five years with all wins not included? In any case, not too surprising that looking only at losses produces a bad-looking stat.

Glas to hear you haven't given up on him. And IMO Rashee Rice is pretty similar so far. A VG first year then a major drop back, with Rice due to injury. Their total productions are about the same. Anyway, I added this to my first reply to you above, but it's moving so fast you didn't see it. Definitely a drop backwards. But why? Some kind of injury? Disagreement with the OC? Needed more of a blocker at TE? Later in the route progressions and Josh threw to earlier alternatives? Lost the ability to get open? It's just not clear. But maybe getting clearer after that Katherine Fitzgerald tweet "Dawson Knox said that TE Dalton Kincaid was playing on a torn PCL in one knee and with an aggravated other knee -- "It's insane what he's played through." You can find the tweet in this article, if you haven't seen it. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-gm-brandon-beane-weighs-in-on-te-dalton-kincaid-s-sophomore-season/ar-AA1ycXle Beane mentioned it in the PC too. Also implied he needs to build up play strength. So that would appear to be something he will likely be trying to work on also. And I just don't care about the comparisons to TEs in his draft class. There wasn't a lot of sentiment on here, or anywhere, really for drafting LaPorta or Mayer (in the first round, anyway). I care how good a TE he is. I think if he gets the knee thing squared away and has a good offseason we could be seeing him in a very different light.

Excuse me, YOU are the one who compared Allen to Kincaid. I only responded. Oh, and Kincaid was old. And from a smaller school, fairly raw. His athleticism and great hands helped him out to a great start, but he hadn't had much route-running or nuance. He was just really athletic. You certainly could be right that his rookie year is one of his best. My guess is that's not how it goes, but either one could absolutely happen. But "there is less room to grow when you come into the NFL at 24 instead of 21" makes little or no sense to me. Most growth in your first three or four years in the league occurs above the neckline. That's where people see the most improvement as things slow down for them and they know where the QB wants them to go and HT run routes at NFL level and so on. Coming in older does likely mean you will reach your older years a bit sooner. Not always, sometimes a lack of mileage can let guys last longer, but certainly it's a concern. But it really does NOT mean you've got less room to grow. And there's plenty of room for putting on a few pounds more and eating better at age 24, as much as age 21. Utah probably has pretty good facilities, but not NFL level, and not real close. Alright, not much else to say beyond, "look at the numbers. Then look at who the safeties were playing with." There simply shouldn't be much doubt.

Everybody has some trouble containing passing attacks. We had much less trouble than most teams. For many years in a row. And a very large percentage of that was Hyde and Poyer. This isn't a hidden secret of the Masons or something. Pretty much everyone knows it. If you have no idea how good they were, I'll tell you. Extremely good. Again, the numbers showed it. It's not just me, it's pretty much everyone. Rapp is actually pretty good at this point. He wasn't when he got here, but they're excellent teachers here. Hamlin is acceptable. The difference is that Poyer and Hyde were both excellent for years. Sensational athletes? No. Hyde especially was pretty good. But they were really good at being misleading, facilitating communication and working together to confuse QBs. But the Bills D this year was 20th in defensive passer rating. And for most of the year they had really good CBs until Douglas seemed to drop off. 20th. And again, with Poyer and Hyde, it was* 2022 2nd in defensive passer rating 2021, 1st, 70.1 2020, 7th 2019 4th 2019 3rd 2017 5th in 2017. Is some of that CB play? Absolutely, without question. But outside of Tre, during those years we had guys at CB like Dane Jackson, and Levi and Shareece Wright (55% of the snaps in 2017).

"Kincaid has been a disappointment in his first two years. There's no reasonable way to state otherwise," you say? That's just not true. Not at all. Here's a reasonable alternative. Kincaid's first year was an absolute success. However his second year was a disappointment. He took a step back for some reason. That's every bit as reasonable. He was 10th in the league among TEs as a rook in yardage. 7th in receptions. One of the best in completions/target. Better than promising. Outright very good, particularly for a rookie. Definitely a drop backwards. But why? Some kind of injury? Disagreement with the OC? Needed more of a blocker at TE? Later in the route progressions and Josh threw to earlier alternatives? Lost the ability to get open? It's just not clear. But maybe getting clearer after that Katherine Fitzgerald tweet His snaps went down, 699 (63%) to 471 (57%). "Dawson Knox said that TE Dalton Kincaid was playing on a torn PCL in one knee and with an aggravated other knee -- "It's insane what he's played through." You can find the tweet in this article, if you haven't seen it. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-gm-brandon-beane-weighs-in-on-te-dalton-kincaid-s-sophomore-season/ar-AA1ycXle Beane mentioned it in the PC too. Also implied he needs to build up play strength. So that would appear to be something he will likely be trying to work on also.

I see. Guys who play well as a rookie are then finished and never get better? Sorry, that's just dumb. This was his second year. He might end up never improving again. But he also might be much much better. It happens quite often with guys going from their 2nd to 3rd years.

That's flat-out ridiculous. Of course it's early. Very early. He was a rookie in 2023 and this year was his second year in the NFL, which is way early. Um, yes, 26. Second year in the NFL. That's how this is looked at. Spending two years at JUCO and three years at Utah isn't going to count as NFL experience. The idea's dumb. Josh, when he was 26, was in his fifth NFL year. And he was very unspecial in his first two.

Good teams absolutely did not do anything they wanted against our secondary in the Poyer and Hyde years, that's nonsense. Mahomes, obviously, did well enough to beat us consistently in the playoffs. But nobody else really stopped him either. In 2022 we were 2nd in defensive passer rating, in 2021, way out in first holding opposing QBs to an average passer rating of 70.1, 7th in 2020, 4th in 2019, 3rd in 2018 and 5th in 2017. That's consistent excellence against the pass. As for specific games when good teams very much did not do anything they wanted against our secondary during those years, check out the passing success of: KC 10/10/21 Mahomes 33/54-272-2-2 TB 2021 Brady 2243 269 0-0 passer rating 70.8 19 points scored (Tampa was the #2 offense that year) Just the first two I looked at.

Come on, Kirby, it's way too early on Kincaid and Coleman. And Rousseau is a good player, significantly better than average. We are in the same place we've been for years. Really really good. One of the top teams in the league, that hasn't been able to get past the Chiefs. And IMO you're listening to some fruitcakes if you are hearing that Shakir is elite. He's good and getting better. Spencer Brown, especially at the end of the season, was playing at an extremely high level. Taron's damn good, among the best, though slot guys don't generally get ranked among the highest CBs. That's an interesting look at things with Geno. I don't agree, myself. I'd guess it's more like 10 wins for the Geno Ravens probably a game or two game less with last year's Henry-less group, and 8 or 9 for the Geno Bills. Interesting way of looking at it, though, and you could be right.

Better than good against the run, he's excellent. But he's not an elite first step guy. He's a good pass rusher, but not a great one. And I agree he'd be a lot better with someone really gifted on the other side.

You can hold him responsible for making the wrong call on sliding the line... but then he makes that incredible throw. Josh was awful that first drive, devastatingly awful, and not real good in the next few drives either. That was the problem for him. But then in the second half he was insane, excepting the tush pushes. And there's a lot of shared blame there. Lotta blame to go around. Josh should get his share, but no more.

This is hindsight. And it isn't about pressure from outside. If there's one thing I know (we all do) about Josh, it's that he's dying to win, all the time. When he loses, it kills him inside. Even more so in the biggest game. That's what we saw here. A guy experiencing massive disappointment and acting gutted.

This is an immensely poorly written sentence. No, history won't change. Of course, it's written. Might be interpreted differently. Won't change. But could historical trends be broken, particularly historical trends in a pretty damn small sample? Hell, yeah! And you yourself point out two guys who've already done it. Oh, and you forgot Belichick and his five years with the Browns, arguably the GOAT. And Coughin and his eight years of being thought just not good enough in Jax. If you think Reid with the Eagles just wasn't good enough to win a Super Bowl and that Reid with the Chiefs was, well, I'd like to show you some swamp land, uh, I mean vacation property I've got available. An awful lot of those results come from the fact that the coach wasn't quite in the right situation earlier, or that things just went against him. Footballs do bounce funny. A few key plays can make all the difference, a TE might drop a pass that's right in his hands, or Levi Wallace might not look back at Poyer and figure he's far more forward than he actually was rather than actually checking. Stuff like this happens, damn it. What the history reflects is that only one guy wins each year, that fairly few coaches have been in a great position with the right pieces in place to win, and that most probably every year there are three or four coaches good enough to win but that only one actually can win. It's the thing that makes this so goddamn frustrating. This team wasn't comprehensively beaten by the Chiefs except in the first game in 2020. It's been right there for them and stuff has happened. Although if they could get a frickin' excellent pass rusher ...

Disagree with you about Rousseau's motor. He's there every game. His inconsistency comes more from how teams play him, who he's against and what the defensive and offensive game plans are.

Teams that run a lot and are successful at it are going to look like that on offense. Their yards will go down as they run a larger percentage of run plays, but if they run efficiently it could easily lead to as many scores. There is indeed a reason that offenses and defenses are typically ranked by yards gained/allowed. That reason is that those stats are far better at isolating defensive contributions from offensive contributions and vice versa. Scoring is greatly affected by field position. Yards, not nearly so much. Agreed about fumble percentages. We did very well in recovery percentages this year and some of that is luck. On the other hand, some of it is probably down to our defense tending to force them more downfield with the peanut punches. Downfield recoveries are more likely going to be defensive just because there are more of them in the area and the offensive guys in the area are looking for someone to block while the defenders are looking at the guy with the ball and are more likely to see the ball out. We went from 55.32% in 2023 to 68..09% in 2024 (best in the league). But give us the 2023 percentage this year and it's still only a difference of about four to five TOs, total. We got lucky with fumble recoveries this year. But what was really good is that we had the 2nd lowest number of own fumbles in the league, and tied for the highest number of opponent fumbles. That's not nearly so luck-based a result.

I'd love to see a link on that, that they "HAVE to make at least ONE penalty call per game. Otherwise [the official is] rated poorly." I'm willing to believe it, if you can back it up, but I've never heard of such a thing before. Where'd you get it?

Um, OK. I don't see anyone placated. Or distracted. Nor, as I pointed out, is there any inconsistency between the two strategies of having two or three top flight talents on each side of the ball and not having any top flight wide receivers. But, um, OK, I suppose. You're an excellent poster. Let's agree to disagree on this one, I guess. See you around the boards.

No, it absolutely isn't. Or at least unless you can point out where McDermott said that at least one of those difference makers must be at WR. And he didn't. It absolutely isn't mutually exclusive. Fair enough on your second paragraph. I would agree with that, with a few provisos, like that absolutely nobody on the team had any juice in that Bengals game. The players simply weren't good enough on that day. And probably the 2020 team wasn't quite there yet either.

Um, no it doesn't. That's you and what you believe. It's not McDermott. The question was specifically about that and he answered it pretty clearly. He believes a team, to be at the highest level, needs "two to three on each side of the ball that are top 1 to 3, 1 to 5 ar their position. IMO we've got that. Not really on the DL which is frustrating, but outside of Allen IMO Taron, Milano, maybe Benford, Cook maybe, probably Spencer Brown. It's arguable, but those guys are in that area. Nobody on the DL since Von's injury. Ed Oliver has games when he looks that good, but not often enough.

Those two things are absolutely not mutually exclusive.

That's nonsense. Benford, Taron, Milano, sorry, man, that's just dumb. Tre, Cook, Spencer Brown, Von Miller before the injury. Just dumb. Any on the level of Josh? No. But there are only about 5 - 7 players in the league, if that many, on Josh's level.

Agreed, not that much. But some. Hell, we make those tush pushes we win the game. But drafting upside is what you're generally left with when you're drafting 29th. It's the way of the world, unfortunately. As for drafting rotational linemen, that battle's long lost. Everyone rotates these days. To different extents, but that's what the league looks like. And IMO this defense needs LBs who can run like crazy. And guys who are big and can run are generally long gone by slot 29. Probably. Could we also have won with the same coaching decisions and better execution? Maybe the TE holds onto that pass as one of several examples? Probably. It was damn close.

I'm not buying that the Chiefs D shows up all the time. Did they keep us down yesterday? How about the 13 seconds game? They generally can't stop Allen, but they slow him down a bit. But we can't stop Mahomes, we slow him down in many, but not enough, damn it. Look, you asked us to show one game they were elite. I did that. You didn't say, "Show me a game where they were elite, but only against an elite QB, not counting times when we were behind, oh, and don't count pick sixes or turnovers." Sure, throw enough qualifiers against the wall and you can eliminate any games. But that's not because the defense wasn't elite. It's because you threw up qualifiers to avoid considering those games. Oh, and we were never behind in that Ravens game. The Ravens scored a total of three points, and we kicked the first field goal of the game. And even if we had been behind, that has nothing to do with anything we're arguing about. Our offense only scored 10 points, but that's not on our defense. What our defense was responsible for was holding the Ravens to three and then scoring seven for us on the pick six. They were elite in those two games. Those two teams made the playoffs, and our D was elite in those two games, which is pretty damn good when they haven't had that many playoff games. The Pats had the sixth highest scoring offense that year. The Ravens were 7th that year we held them to three points. To be elite in two is impressive. The Bills D has been a bend but not break D that overall does the fundamentals brilliantly. You wanna argue that the D in that Miami game wasn't good? I wouldn't argue too hard. But it's not eking out a win when the Fins on their last two drive are absolutely choked out by the Bills defense. The defense hasn't been able to hold down the Chiefs in the playoffs. That's been their problem. And as three championships shows, very few teams have. Not that that makes this damn game hurt any less. Two-time and possibly three-time MVP Lamar Jackson says hi. He's a quarteback, isn't he? The defense has done quite well overall in the playoffs against QBs not named Mahomes. You can argue the Bengals game, but that was a defense playing with both hands behind their back in terms of both injuries and the whole team just playing like their emotional reserves were utterly and completely drained.

Elite, not many. But how many elite games does any team have when you give only a small playoff sample. Was the Chiefs D elite yesterday? Good to very good? Pretty much all of them except the Chiefs games and that Bengals game. As for elite ... the Pats game in the 2021 playoffs. It was 33-3 late in the third quarter. The Pats had scored 10 points till they scored another in garbage time after the two minute warning which made the score 47 - 17. Micah Hyde had that insane interception early. That and the 17 - 3 victory against the Ravens where Taron Johnson had the 103 yard pick six.