Thurman#1

There are 12 to 15 franchise QBs in the league now and four QBs with contracts over $50M. There's not a single non-QB getting $35M per year by AAV. Not one. And a grand total of THREE non-QBs earning $30M or up. So you're wildly inflating your numbers there. Why push unreasonable narratives? This is one factor that should be looked at with early picks, certainly. But one of many.

Nothing.

While I agree with your thrust, Diggs tied for 8th in TDs, not 4th. And he was 7th in the league in receptions, not 6th. When 7 guys got more TDs than you did, you are either 8th or tied for 8th. Not 4th. I understand what you're doing there. But it's not just misleading but invalid. By that logic, you could say that Quinton Morris was tied for 11th in receiving touchdowns in the league, and that linebacker Terrel Bernard was tied for 12th with his total of zero behind only 11 other totals. Not 11 other players. 11 other totals. That is not how rankings work. If 200 guys got more TDs than you, than you are 201st. If you're desperate, you could say that Quinton Morris had the 11th highest total number of touchdowns. But even that is wildly misleading. The way to say it is that he was tied for 159th in TDs with his total of one TD. More specifically you could say that he's in a 90-way tie for 159th in receiving TDs.

Gunner could indeed be correct here. I'd bet it's a less than 50% bet, myself. Saving $4.9M on the cap in 2025 isn't worth the difference between seeing Diggs play elsewhere vs. Diggs playing here and likely putting up 1000 yards even with a not great year.

When only week 8 on count towards wins and losses, that will matter. Just as reasonable and full of spin to say that he wasn't that productive after the OC who drew up the playbook was replaced by another OC forced to use the original guy's playbook. Diggs was 7th in receptions, 13th in yards and tied for 8th in TDs. 10th in 1st downs. All of those are still very good. Not as good as we're used to from Diggs. But very very good. And again, Josh overthrew an open Diggs on bombs like 6 times last year.

Kumerow was 6'4". Duke Williams was 6'3". He's had a monster. And he's had other guys who can go up and make contested catches, including Davis and Diggs. Height isn't a non-factor. But it shouldn't be in the top three either. Fast, separation and a proven ability to run a varied route tree and to be effective at all levels should be higher priorities.

Indeed. I saw a talking head nicely say the other day, "It depends who you're trading away from." If Latu is still there at #28, IMO you don't trade away from him. Yup. Consistently.

It absolutely would not "compound the problem." Hell, having lots of late picks is not a problem. It's an opportunity. And not an opportunity that will have been a problem even if we draft twelve and lose two to five at cut-down. Even if we flat-out assume Beane does not need eleven, much less twelve draft picks, it's still an opportunity. You can use those picks to trade up strategically in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds as the board becomes clear and you know who's available as your picks approach. That would likely be the route they would go if they do trade back. But even if they did keep all eleven or twelve picks and have to let three or four or even five go around cut-down, it's still an opportunity. Maybe the last guy you pick in the 7th, or your 3rd 6th round pick, turns out to be a Brady, a Jason Kelce, a Latavius Murray, an Adalius Thomas, an Antonio Brown with a better head, or even without a better head and you make a great trade for him in his fourth year, a Shannon Sharpe, a Mailata, an Edelman or a Donald Driver, a Marques Colston, an Adam Timmerman or even a Gary Anderson to kick for you. All those were 6ths or 7ths. And you don't know which will be a huge surprise till you get them into camp. Many late picks means a better chance of finding a guy like that, even if several others get picked up by other teams.

I'm with you most of the way. But I'd add Latu and Verse as guys to take at 28 or maybe even make a small tradeup. This team doesn't have much in the way of a pass rush right now. If they're gone, as they likely will be, I'm also OK with trading back, hopefully getting maybe a 3rd and still having a shot at one of the Xaviers or even Troy Franklin if his fall in the mocks is real (which I'm not really convinced of) in the 40s. Nah, not at all. You have to be a fool to rule us out. We've taken a step back but it could very easily be a small one we can make up as young guys develop during the year. Or not. Anytime we have a healthy Josh Allen we're at least a potential contender.

Taron Johnson? Are you nuts? He's a terrific bargain. Probably will cost significantly less than half of what Johnson will get. Johnson is one of our most important defensive players. Beane has made some questionable moves - everyone does - but overall he's been extremely good.

Yup. I'm sure it's not a cap move, because the cap is not real. They just couldn't calculate well how valuable those draft picks were.

A beautiful thing indeed. I don't think McDermott ever was unwilling to play rookies, even start them. But it was really hard for the rookie to impress him enough to earn that. A guy like Rousseau shows you can play ... if you can play. As a rookie he played 49% of snaps. That's gone up, but not much. 56%, then 60%. Singletary played a higher percentage of snaps as a rookie, 67%, than he ever did again, including his Houston years. His non-rookie high was 65% in his last year in Buffalo. Tre White played 99% as a rookie, and never played quite that much ever again. I think you're right that when things are humming as a system, it's easier for rookies to progress. But in my opinion it's no coincidence that Kincaid played 63% as a rookie, while Dawson Knox as a rookie played 64%. Things don't appear to be changing all that much. Looks - to me anyway - like they just think that they just couldn't keep Torrence off the field, that he was just too good. Anyway, I do agree that the better the system works, the easier it is for younger guys to pick it all up. Marv Levy also allowed a very few rookies to play full-time, but not most. And it did seem to get a little more common later in the Bills run.

I find it really hard to believe that thing about tension between Josh and Palmer, really hard. Why? Because any tension about it could have been shut down. In literally three seconds. Literally. Josh: "Jordan, I'd rather you didn't talk about me." That's it. Done. That's what it would have taken. And yeah, Josh has always been a private person in his private life. He never talked much about his previous girlfriend, etc. It's no surprise he isn't talking about Hailee either. No surprise, and totally reasonable. But he's never been private about his football prep. He's never even appeared that way. No way to prove it either way, of course, but I just don't believe that, I don't. And while I do think there may have been some pressure to do media early, after his third year, he can't have felt any more pressure. He was obviously top five in his third year. But the next offseason or two he still talked a lot about his prep. I'm just not buying this, Beck. You're an excellent poster, but I have to disagree here. I would dearly dearly love to be wrong about this. I so hope that I am. In early years, he would have come out at some point and said something like, "well, I clearly had some problems with the long ball, particularly on go routes this year. I need to do some work this offseason in correcting my fundamentals and in figuring out how to do this in a way that Stefon, the guys and I can have a better shot at completing a few more of these. I'm working on it with ***." Hopefully we hear something like this at some point this offseason.

It doesn't follow. Very fair point. But it does make it seem like that's most likely. Allen has never been shy about telling us what he does in the offseason to get better, or allowing the people he's worked with to talk about it either. Why would he? People love it. And yet, very little lately. He does get criticism. Not much. He's the face of the franchise and their best player, and it's as natural as gravity that guys like that are loved and thus not attacked as much as others. 90% may be high. But not all that high. And while some breadcrumb-reading is going on, it's also things he said, particularly on that Bussin' with the Boys podcast last offseason. In past year in interviews this time of year he'd talk golf and what he was doing to prepare for the season. Lately we heard about golf, but football not nearly so much.

Everyone should. Those are indeed important. But plenty of other things matter.

Yeah, I'm with you. I see more than 15 guys as "cuttable." More like 19 or 20. And there are always a few surprise cuts above that threshold as well. Also a few surprise FAs that step up and make themselves more valuable than we think.

There absolutely is an argument. Either way. For keeping the picks, we've had 5ths, 6ths and 7ths stick and contribute. But we've also lost some guys worth keeping and developing because of a lack of space. This year there is more space on the roster than usual, the cap-driven massacre was wider than it usually is. Since more guys means a larger likelihood of finding a guy who can contribute, it's certainly a legit argument.

IMO 90% Wilson. But hopefully Fields can take a page from the Jordan Love playbook and use the time on the bench to get a lot better over time. Hopefully for Pittsburgh anyway.

This is always a cool thing. Thanks for doing it. Particularly putting up a prize is service above and beyond. Nice!!

Yeah, potato leek is one of the good ones. Split pea. Lentil. Chicken, if the chunks are big. Life is good when you have one of those things.

Ah, I see. I agree with most of that. I expect a vet, not necessarily one who will start, but possibly. And if I had to guess I'd say I also expect a safety in the draft as well, maybe even one in the first four rounds or so. And I do have a ton of faith in McDermott's ability to maximize defensive backfields.

Yeah, second-best. It's indeed subjective, but very reasonable indeed. Personally, I agree with you there. But I think we both probably agree on who is the first-best, right? Mahomes, right? That's my feeling anyway. Do you disagree? And when the best QB only manages to get both of those measure into the top three in the league in two out of his six seasons, arguing that Allen should do it consistently just simply doesn't make sense. Brady managed it two times out of his last ten years. In a run when they made five Super Bowls and won three. And Brady is arguably the GOAT, certainly one of the very few who could legitimately be mentioned as being in the running for the GOAT. Brady does it two times out of ten. Mahomes does it two times out of six. And Allen is supposed to do it "consistently"? I'm sorry, but that just doesn't make sense. It just doesn't. That is an unreasonable expectation, it just is. You say Allen was 8th in yards per game? And that it was a down year for him? Yeah. Agreed. The fact that guys HAVE down years, all of them, Brady, Mahomes, ALL of them, is precisely why it's unreasonable to expect a guy to be in the top three of both of those categories consistently. Know who else had a down year? Mahomes. He was 7th, just barely ahead of Allen in 8th. Guys have up and down years. It's the nature of human beings, teams, hell it's in the nature of statistics itself. I think you're right that some of it comes down to play-calling and such. I would also argue that a lot of it comes down to defenses playing guys like Allen and Mahomes differently from the way they play most QBs. Defenses have caught up with the highest-flying offenses of the past few years. They're saying they aren't going to let you hit the chunks plays anymore. Trevor Lawrence was 9th. Lamar Jackson 16th. Defensive strategies also have a lot to do with it. But the point is that it's the way statistics work. They go up and down. For Mahomes, Brady, Allen, everyone. Getting both of those numbers up that high is statistically a rare thing. It's not something you can expect consistently. More, Allen is always going to have a disadvantage in passing TDs compared to most QBs. How many times inside the ten does Pat Mahomes run for the TD? A running TDs is every single bit as good as a passing TD. They both count seven points. Add running TDs to passing TDs and Allen suddenly compares very differently. Take the running TDs out and you're handicapping Allen compared to the other QBs. Wait a minute. You suddenly went from yards per game above when that number better suited you, to total passing yards here, when that better suited you. Allen runs a ton more than those guys, a ton more. Think those rankings would look a bit different if we look at total production? Of course they would. Total yards is deeply affected by how many throws you make, and Allen generally throws less because he runs on a fairly large number of his throwing snaps. And looking at passing yards again ignores the whole point of football, wins. Again, you don't win more by being the best passing team. You win more by being the best team. That should be the goal when drafting, bringing in FAs, and personnel matters in general. More, Mahomes has four seasons where he was higher in yards than Allen has ever been, right? His three SB wins must be in those seasons, right? Nope. In only one of those four great passing yardage total seasons did the Chiefs win a title. Two of their titles came in years when he was unspectacular. Again, you don't win titles by making sure your QB gets a lot of passing yards. You win titles by making sure your team, as a whole, is better. Proof? I went and looked at the list you are pulling from there, rankings of the best seasons in NFL history in yardage. Know how many of the top 100 best seasons in NFL history won Super Bowls? You'd have to figure it's a lot, as the team is absolutely at the top of the league in the passing offense portion of the game. But, no. Four of the top 100. I think I got that right, but to help you check, I found Warner 2011, Mahomes 2022, Eli M. 2011 and Stafford in 2021. That's it, out of the top 100 seasons in history. Again, you try to put together the best TEAM. Not the best passing offense. Please expand the part of your post that's just above here. I added in some colored additions, pointing out how things looked very different when you looked at total yards rather than total passing yards. Looking only at total passing yards is directly handicapping the way Josh's numbers look. Anyway, these numbers are yet more reason to point out why the main point is NOT using your resources the best way possible to increase your passing game's effectiveness. An awful lot of non-SB-winners on that list. The main idea is to use your resources the best way possible to increase the effectiveness of your whole team. That will doubtless include using some resources on the passing game but also using high-quality assets such as high picks and more cap space on other areas of the team. Focusing only on the passing game as you are doing here is missing the point. More, those are the lists of their best seasons. How many of those QBs also had plenty of seasons that were considerably worse than those on that list? All of them. What you've got there isn't a list showing a lot of consistency, which is what you are demanding of Allen. It's a list of high points. And Allen's high points fit right in there with the folks on that list. 32nd, 38th and 49th are damn impressive for Allen when you're throwing out his run yards and keeping in mind that he was more of a project than most and his first two years were statistically not very impressive. It is indeed a very complex discussion, and it certainly involves a ton of subjectivity. But what is not subjective is the relative lack of Lombardis on those lists you noted. You spent a lot of time on it, and I appreciate it. It really made me think. But if I had to leave with tw things, it would be that Allen indeed had a down year, but so did Mahomes, and the Chiefs won a Super Bowl. Having a down year in those categories just isn't the most important thing, not especially indicative of likelihood to win titles. And second that if Mahomes has only managed to get in the top three in both categories in two of his six active years, expecting Allen to do it consistently when you're not including his run stats is not reasonable.

Yeah, me too. That's why I ... OK, I guess maybe we're talking past each other. Have a good day, Gunner.

Yes, precisely. In his six drafts, he's twice used a first-rounder on a pass catcher, in Diggs and Kincaid. Would people only have been happy if he'd used three 1sts in his six years? In any case, seems likely we'll use either a 1st or a 2nd this year on a pass catcher if the board falls favorably, which with the large number of good WR prospects seems pretty likely. Heh heh. Fair enough. But why? What would be wrong with bringing in at least one more safety, especially if lower-level FAs are included? Don't feel a need to answer if you don't want to. Beane generally tries to go into the draft with no real needs. Would you be happy going into the draft with our current safeties?

Yeah, maybe. My guess is they're going to bring in at least one vet FA at safety, but not necessarily one they expect to start. We'll see.