Thurman#1

Again, "can we do it?" is the wrong question. It's a fun thing to look at as a hypothetical, but it's dumb to look at in real time. The fact is, I can afford a Lamborghini Temerario. I can do that. It's fun to think about. But for me to actually buy it would be massively, spectacularly overwhelmingly stupid. The question is simply NOT "Can we do it?" The question is "SHOULD we do it?" Or maybe, "Is doing it a smart use of resources?" And no, it would not be a smart or even slightly unstupid of me to buy a Temerario. Nor would it be smart of us to spend a ton this year with void years and then be greatly limited in who else they could bring in for the next year or two. We know what happens to Beane when he takes a risk and brings in a Von Miller. He ends up with a year like last year when he has to get the cap back under control and get rid of some guys and not be able to bring in guys we'd like to. Bring in Garrett? Maybe. I hope they can do it - in intelligent circumstances - because he would make this defense look completely different. Bring in Garrett and Allen, both old guys who'd cost a lot? With Allen coming off a major injury? I don't see that as being a smart use of resources and I don't think Brandon will either. No, you can't "lower the cap hit to almost nothing." You just can't. You can lower it significantly for this year. But it will all come in in future years. Future years when you're also paying Garrett if you bring him in. Again, yeah, I can buy the Temerario. But it would make my nut too high and I'd have to do things elsewhere that would not be in my best interest. Same with the Bills and the salary cap and the feeling that they can do it so it makes sense. This move doesn't. Particularly for an injured 30 year-old. Oh, and yes, the Eagles did bring in AJ Brown and Darius Slay. Were either of them 30 years old and injured? Slay wasn't a young pup, but he was younger than Allen. And healthy.

That's what I think. With that injury anyway. If healthy, maybe not impossible, but at his age you can't assume a perfect recovery. Yeah, but that would change if you bring in Garrett. Who will require an extension (this year or next at the outside) as he goes into his thirties. Bring in Garrett and you drastically adjust the other pieces you will be able to bring in.

Not all that crazy when four out of those five games were against Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs. Would you agree that the Chiefs defense is pretty good? Well, by this standard they aren't. When they play Josh Allen in the playoffs they allowed more than 30 points per game. It's also questionable that they prioritize the defense first. They prioritize both. One good example is how they put together such a good OL this year

Old and stale, maybe. Still matters, though, and it's still for real. They had fewer injuries this year. But arguably their one most important player on defense, their best CB, was the guy who missed the game. It was big. Still should have won if Josh had had a better first two drives, or if the refs hadn't screwed up that first down call on the tush push, or if our TE had caught that ball on 4th down on the last drive. We were right there, good enough to win. But we didn't.

Yeah, this was a team win, and I don't know if there was a guy who was all that much more valuable than anyone else. And Mahomes appeared off right from the first pass play when he threw behind Kelce with no pressure whatsoever.

Or bust? Haiiiil naw. It'll all depend on the guy and the price. I'd love to get Garrett in particular. But only if it's good value. And I'd disagree that Brandon fails to get elite players early, because he basically never drafts early. It's a lot harder to get elite guys where we usually draft. And costs too much to move up far (Massey-Thaler, for example). Play it as it comes, and I'm hoping it comes so we can get Garrett.

Higher helps. Not as much as it does on a punt, of course. But if the ball is higher it's more affected by the wind and harder to predict for the returner exactly where it'll land. He's got to keep his head up higher and if it's near the goal line he's now got to think about The more the football's momentum is down rather than forward as it approaches the ground, and the less likely he is to be able to get a running start. Will that mean that the second returner might have to be over close yelling to catch it or let it go on plays where it's close-ish to the end zone? Yeah, probably, if it's close, but giving that guy something else to do rather than block is also a slight advantage for the kicking team. You're right, this isn't a huge deal, but IMO it's part of what we'll see, I think. I could be wrong. Time will tell.

IMO the returners will have pretty much the same choices as they did last year. But they will see very different kinds of kicks coming towards them if they pass this new rule, or at least that's the assumption from the NFL, and from me for that matter. They'll be seeing a lot more shorter higher kicks that have to get returned.

It's generally the kicking team not the returning team that makes this decision, by kicking it way the hell out of the end zone. If a TB goes to the 35, we're likely to see kicks that are shorter and higher, landing in the field of play and forcing returns.

As has been pointed out about a million times, and correctly, isn't that the D has been bad in the postseason. It is basically that the D has not been able to stop the Kansas City Chiefs in the postseason. Very few teams have, and the ones that managed it generally Mahomes having a bad day. Right from play one against the Eagles, Mahomes was missing even when not pressured. And Josh is not unaware that the first two drives or so in our game against KC this year he was awful, and that that cost us deeply. I just don't see that kind of attitude surfacing in Josh.

This.

Thanks very much. These days I just can't keep up with the whole league the way I used to. Affordable but good is the type of guy I think we'll have a reasonable chance to bring in. Appreciate it greatly.

Was not expecting that!!! A perfect answer.

Really. Nobody knows yet. There's a possibility they all go right along the trajectory already established. Probably several will. Anyone who thinks that we already know what will happen to all of them is absolutely kidding himself. Some might make huge steps up. No way to know for sure. Much too early. Look at Benford or Taron Johnson or Milano out of hundreds of similar examples. Hell, look at Josh. None looked like an impact playmaker after their first year. Some elite playmakers are already recognizable after their first year. Plenty more are not yet. Kid yourself if it makes you feel better. We just don't know. That's an irritating feeling, which reflect reality.

Much too early.

Milano's low 40 was 4.58. https://draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=127726&DraftYear=2017 But his higher ones were just about what are mentioned there as guesses for Dolac. Too early to know, really, till we start to see actual 40 times rather than informed guesses. I like what little I know about Dolac a lot. Always in the right spot. Good instincts. Tremaine was an excellent pass coverage guy, but more so zone than man. There really isn't a comparison there.

Way way way too early for me to have decided or even narrowed things down. But I'm with Alpha, my ideal would be to trade it in a (reasonably priced) package to get us Garrett or Crosby.

Not really caught up on either guy. Just looking at their production, that's the kind of guy who they could reasonably afford to bring in, it looks like to me. What particularly do you like about each guy, if you don't mind me asking. I don't know either one well at all.

Don't worry about him, he's not coming here.

Undefeated? Dude, please. Yup.

No, just the opposite. When 7 of the top 12 RBs are within the top 14 of 32 playoff teams that indicates success. Not lack of success. Right. Again, that's an indicator of success, not a lack of success. It means that QBs in the top 10 of AAV made the playoffs at higher rates than those below the top 10. Particularly as the two teams in the Super Bowl are both in that list of the top ten QBs in terms of AAV. And three of the four teams in the conference championships. Um, no, he's not missing that in any way shape or form. Of course having good to great WRs helps the most important position on the field. Of course it does. So does having good to great players at every single other position on the field. OLs. RBs. TEs. Punters, who help the QB get better field position. Pass rushers who help get more possessions. EVERY ... POSITION ... ON THE FIELD. RBs help take responsibility off the QB and make things much more difficult on the defense in terms of handling both offensive modes instead of letting them concentrate basically on the passing game. Everyone helps the QB, that's part of it being a team game. You're right, of course, that it's more complicated than a straight causative relationship. It's complex. Some great QBs either have rookie contracts (Daniels) or older cheaper ones that will be updated soon (Josh). Same sort of thing with WRs and RBs, and everyone, really. AAV isn't a perfect gauge of talent. It's a damn good gauge of how positions are valued, though. OP has a very interesting point. Values may start to go down a bit. They won't plummet, but go down in comparison to other positions? Could easily happen. But year after year it's unusual to see true #1s in the Super Bowl. It does happen, including arguably this year with A.J. Brown. But it's unusual. Usually teams that have QBs on second contracts have to cut elsewhere and WRs are usually one of the areas they cut out (see the Chiefs and what they did with Tyreek and his second contract). A spectacular QB can usually get by much much better without a true #1 than can a new QB or a more average QB.

No, not even slightly close. That's just wrong. Far less than 2/3rds of all offensive plays are passes. Far less. The highest pass/run percentage in the league is Cincy, at 62.8%. League average is closer to 55%. And that's passes. NOT just passes to wide receivers. Subtract out all passes to RBs, TEs and eligible OLs, and it's way less than 40%. More like 1/3 than 2/3 of offensive plays target WRs.

When are people going to accept that it looks like we don't know. Maybe they found somebody who they think has found some kind of breakthrough. Maybe Ciano is becoming unpleasant to deal with. Maybe he's been coming in late more and more often. Maybe there are personality problems developing. We just don't know. Most likely we never will, though folks closer may and it may come out eventually. Or not. We don't know. I'm with you that the evidence is that he did a good job. Over the - is it nine? - years he's been here they've had two really bad years for injuries. In football two out of nine is far more healthy than usual. He's not the strength coach anymore. But he was. Or the Strength and Conditioning Coach, anyway. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2025/2/15/24365585/buffalo-bills-part-ways-with-former-coach-of-the-year-recipient-eric-ciano From what I've observed when they let someone go, he's gone from the website extremely quickly.

Let's be honest. What you have there is a guess. Some QBs decline much earlier, as Cam Newton did. Others much later, as Tom Brady did. Within the middle area where most are, there's huge variability and a lot of it depends on injuries. Peyton Manning could have gone another year or two at a tremendously high level if not for the arm injury. Stafford's playing as well as ever at 37. Five or six years is plucked out of the air. Will his run game drop off probably around then? Yeah, maybe. But he's got the same ability to move in the pocket as someone like Brady did and Brady stayed 100% relevant way into his 40s. The way he played this year is something he can most maintain, very possibly for a long time. Being honest doesn't mean you're correct. It only means that your opinion is deeply felt. Urgency winning a Super Bowl? Absolutely. As they have every year. They should in the future have as much or more. We were probably one play away this year, damn it. They need to improve. Every year. They're aware of this.

Bill, I took a look at Derrick Harmon after you picked him. Man, I am salivating. Thanks so much for all the time you spend. Great stuff. I'd really like all three of these.