Thurman#1

Yup. It's arguably the historically most common way to win a title, very very good defense, and an elite/near-elite QB making an offensive unit better than the pre-season roster looks like it can. Been said a million times so far, and that's only in this thread, but that right there is the story of the 2023 Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs. Brady also needs to be very good, I think you're dead right here.

That's interesting. I hadn't really noticed that. Good thoughts.

They are. Pretty sure if SVPG was playing terrific, he'd replace McGovern and it wouldn't take long. Plans aren't things that don't account for possible changes based on situations evolving or results being different than expected.

Polite disagreement. It could go both ways, particularly with those two guys, Shakir and Kincaid. Both are very young and could easily take big leaps this season. It's not a sure thing, but particularly with Kincaid it seems pretty likely. Having Allen will help, quite clearly. But maybe having Kincaid and Shakir will help Allen a lot too.

Please. The effect seems to have been what happens moving from a decent head coach who had a defensive background to a pretty good head coach with an offensive background. And the result is going from 5-11 to 10-6 to 9-8 to 9-8 (lose in the first round) to 11-6 (lose in the first round). Should we go over what happened when the Pats moved from an offensive HC (Carroll) to a defensive head coach?

Yeah. Whereas other teams never have any problems or setbacks. More, what you've got there is a severe pessimist's view of the Bills history. Just as reasonable to say that we've been one of the absolute best teams in football the past four years or so, who if not for the Chiefs would probably have a Lombardi or two over the stretch.

I've gotta say, I see doom and gloom. But I also see plenty of rainbows and moonbeams and an awful lot of what I guess I'd call hopeful realism as well. There's room for some gloom, as well as doom. We aren't quite as good a roster this year as we were last, without Diggs and Morse and yadda yadda. That's the most reasonable take. Plenty of room for optimism too, though. Vegas has us in the top six or seven teams despite that, simply because we show every sign of being a serious contender once again. Well, yeah, this also.

Stretched parameters? That's nonsense. I mean, like pig manure type of nonsense. Utter and complete. In fact, "The parameters used to draw comparisons between the passing game weapons the Bills currently possess and those that the Chiefs took into 2023 are" extremely damn reasonable. Can every team make a similar claim? No. Pretty much every team has a WR room every bit as good as the Chiefs did. Or better. They were a functional group with some rookies and very young guys who had a chance to develop and show out but hadn't done so yet. Most teams, nearly every team, can match that WR room without any stretch whatsoever. Not every team has a Kelce, even an aging one likely to take a significant decline. Not every team does. But we have Kincaid and he shows very likely to be that good. You say, "I mean in 2022 MVS literally had more receiving yards than any of Kincaid, Shakir or Samuel did last season," is obviously spin, and not particularly good spin. It's tne same weak sauce so many have tried. Curtis Samuel has had four years when he was better than that year for MVS or about as good (627, 851, 656 and 613 compared to MVS's 2022 687). Samuel's best year in receiving yards was significantly better than MVS's best, 815 to 690. Yeah, it's true that that year from MVS he was more productive than all three of Kincaid, Shakir or Samuel. That's true. MVS had 687, Shakir had 611 and Samuel's best year is significantly better than MVS's, better by more than MVS's 2022 season you're referring to was better than Kincaid's and Shakir's last season. I can't blame you for the immensely weak arguments you're using here. They're all that's available for people making the dumb argument you're trying to make. That's the problem you have, you're making a dumb argument. It's not your fault there's such little and weak factual evidence to support that dumb argument. What's dumb is looking at that utter lack of genuinely strong arguments and still trying to make the case. As for Kelce, yeah, his 2022 season was damn good, but he'd turned 33 during that season, and was set to turn 34 the next. He absolutely looked like he was due for a regression. His last seven games that season he was significantly less productive. Project his production from the first ten games of '22 into a whole season and you get a fantastic looking season. 855 yards and 11 TDs in ten games which extrapolates into a 17 game season of 1453 yards and 18.7 TDs. Insane. But ... in the last seven games his production, 483 yards and 1 touchdown in seven games (and that one came in game 11, none after that) projects out to 60.8 yards and 0.14 TDs per game and over a full season would have amounted to 1173 yards and 2.4 touchdowns. That's still good, but it's a major regression. And they hadn't cut his snap percentage or anything. He just watched his production take a major drop. Not to mention he'd be a year older the next year. Again, first ten games extrapolated to a 1453 yard, 18.7 TD season, while the last seven games calculates out to 1173 yards and 24 TDs. His decline had already begun, and it would accelerate. Still a good player even at that lower level, but he absolutely looked like they were going to start using him less in 2023 and that his age 34 season was probably going to show even more downside. This was anything but unpredictable. Our pre-season weapons compare very well with the out look for KC's 2023 preseason. Yeah, they had Pat Mahomes. But we have Josh Allen.

What you've got there are guys who are far too expensive for us or guys whose teams will not give them up (Jameson Williams? Really? You're better than this.) Funny, that's what all the other threads suggested too. Believe it or not, people have thought of re-working Josh's contract before. The Bills do not want to do that, because it turns their foreseeable future into more and more and more cap frustration, every season into a new one like this year. Dig in, bear the pain this year and watch the team be in reasonable cap shape going forward. There are guys we can get. But they are likely to be the types you folks don't want. They'll be affordable, available and realistic ... they're not going to set imaginations on fire.

Absolutely not. Not even a question. Yup. Nuts, hunh?

Couldn't or wouldn't or didn't? And no, we really won't know that. We'll have some more info that could help us make better more educated attempts at understanding, but there'll likely still be a ton of unclarity still left. If he does really well this year, it could mean that he was dogging it for us. Or that the new OC didn't use him as well. Or that Allen wasn't throwing to him .... it'll only mean that he does well this year despite not doing so well the year before. This happens plenty in the NFL.

That's certainly within the range of reasonable possibility. Anywhere between probably 450 to 1050 yards are reasonable guesses at this point. Too early to know how they'll use him, how much he'll improve as the season proceeds, how many targets he'll get ... or too much of anything, really. My guess i he doesn't reach Rice's numbers but isn't all that far behind, myself. Hang on to your hat for this shocking prediction as well, I guess he starts somewhat slowly and improves as the season goes along. Nuts, I know, right?

Fair look at Keon, IMO. Seems reasonable to me to guess that he'll produce even this year, but not at the level many hope. I agree he might take a while, but I'm still very hopeful.

Nah, this is not true. Was he playing as well as he had? Probably not. Was he still scaring teams, consistently drawing doubles and pulling safeties over to his side? Yeah, he was. A lot of this seems to have been the route combos, when Josh threw to him, etc. How he was fitting in. You watch. He's going to run up a ton of yards this year in Houston.

Another decade or so. They'll hate on it. But it's not in play. It's silly. The only people pushing it are a few nuts and fruitcakes here in this fanbase.

Not impossible, not at all. I doubt it, myself. We'll see. It just seems to me to be an endless loop on these boards. The Bills draft Singletary in the 3rd. He's a good RB, not elite but quite good. Fans here moan, correctly, about how he hasn't got breakaway speed and he's not a pounder. They want someone new. The third round guy doesn't play like a 1st round guy. Fans need someone else. We draft Moss in the 3rd. He's a pounder (until he isn't). Fans aren't happy, and here they've got really good reason, IMO. He's not performing like a 1st rounder. Hell, he didn't perform like a 3rd rounder here, even though he's now doing so. We draft Cook in the 2nd. He's got breakaway speed. He's 4th in the league in production from scrimmage. It's still not enough. We draft Davis in the 4th. We haven't seen him yet, so now he's expected to perform not like a 4th rounder, but like a 1st rounder, expected to beat out Cook and to not have faults in his game. We shouldn't draft an RB in the 1st, generally speaking. It's rarely a good efficient use of resources. And yet when we do the smart thing and draft backs a bit further down, we then expect first round, near-elite performance. And recycle again.

Are we randomly bad at it? Or are we bad at it? Randomness is one possible explanation. There are plenty of others. Yes and no. The stat isn't about scoring from the goalline ... but it also is not about passing touchdowns from the goalline. It's about the success percentage on attempted passes from the goalline, or more specifically from the 3 and in. Success percentage, not total numbers.

If you look at his postseason games here against teams not named the Chiefs, he's been damn good.

Give us another dimension? Yeah. You have to pay game changing players regardless of the cap? Hell, no. Pay him a ton and you're right back next year to where we were this offseason, only worse. They spent this season getting back to decent cap shape, and they had to give up a lot of talented vets to do it. You don't want to be in that situation again and again. The Bills should be trying to get a guy who can athletically get to the QB. But they don't appear willing to do that for a guy who also can't set the edge and stop the run. I'm no Reddick expert, but when they do bring in an athlete, they seem to want one who's not a one-trick pony. Look at Von. He can still set the edge and fill his gap. My impression is that Reddick can't be counted on for that, though I'm really willing to be corrected on that if there are more Philly watchers out there. It's not a good idea on the cap, it just isn't, and I am not sure he fits anyway.

Yup. I'm predicting man press coverage every play and zero WR completions all year long.

Yeah. Wish he'd had a chance with his health. Didn't look like he was going to make the roster in any case, but who know. Injuries are always a shame.

Not ten meters, but yes.

Marino really like what Jonathan did this week. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-22-review-why-did-buffalo-bills-look-so-disjointed/id1145479962?i=1000665030972

This is true. But him with Howie would be a dangerous combo.

And they'll be geniuses and it will prove that Beane should be fired. Oh, please. That's not happening. Nobody's turning their noses up at Aiyuk. Everyone knows he's damn good. They're saying (very reasonably) that getting him would cost too much on the cap in our situation. Apparently SF feels the same way. Nobody's turning their noses up at him.