Thurman#1

What you're using is logic based on far too few known facts. Which is not especially effective We don't see practices. They do. "To me logically," you say, "a healthy Edwards plays ahead of Hamlin." That's not logic. It's presupposition. We'd need a ton more info to know how true that is. BuffaloBillyG is most likely on target. He probably isn't beating out Hamlin. It's not about STs. He has 13 STs snaps.

Better than Milano? No, certainly not. Better than Milano did as a second-year-man? Hmm, maybe. In that neighborhood, anyway. He's drastically improved this year. Edmunds was a lot more effective in pass defense. If you looked at opponent pass distribution charts, teams threw very very little over the middle against Edmunds. But again, Williams is young and still developing.

Yeah, we should re-sign him. Not at any value, though. He's not a top ten guy. And $15 - $20M just isn't that much anymore. It's 5.8% to 7.8% of this year's cap. 92 players make an AAV of $20M. And if I counted right, 149 make more than $15M. Rousseau will get that money, maybe even low $20s, and he'll deserve it. There's a number at which he'd cost too much, but IMO he likes it in Buffalo and won't try to bleed every single drop out of this contract. This also has some merit.

The future is not now. It's the future. That's why the two words are different. And it's especially true this year for the Bills with the massive dead cap hit and loss of guys like Diggs, Davis, Mitch Morse, Poyer, Hyde and Leonard Floyd. Bishop missed most of camp. That set him back, maybe a great deal. Mustapha, the 49ers rookie safety, has played 46% of snaps and started two of six games. Bishop has played 39%. And Mustapha didn't miss a lot of time in training camp.

IMO the Bills have three really tough games and the Jets have two, including us. And we've got a two-game lead and the tie-break. I don't think the division will be any tighter than that looks.

This. Could they be better? Sure. But particularly for a group that lost Milano, Bernard, Taron Johnson and safeties on a team without experienced solid safety depth, the D has been really good. Oliver's been very good, so has Groot. Von is on pace for about 10 this year so far. Solomon looks like a really nice value so far. Do I wish we had a top ten sacker? Yeah, but it's hard to get those guys without top ten picks, particularly when you're paying an elite QB on a second contract.

"Venu says Cook was 'very polite and respectful' while remediating the situation."

Nah. Only frustrated players that we like. My nine year-old used to be a three year-old and this phenomenon is like taking her to Toys 'r Us used to be. "I want that one," every three seconds.

This.

Our running game's alright. Not great, but solid. If anything teams are edging closer to the line, not farther away. They'll keep doing it too, until we show signs of beating them deep a few times.

This ("I just have a hunch that whomever they nab to help out is going to fall far short of expectations....") is my guess too. I think in particular Cooper has a bit of a chance to work out but I can't see them giving away a day two pick for a guy for one year, which would likely be what Adams would be here. Best guess is, IMO, they bring in somebody, but it's not one of the two or three big names that people are hoping for.

Josh doesn't like taking the ball behind center. And that's how you make great play action. When you get the ball behind center and go back and fake a handoff you are not looking downfield. You don't get to look downfield for the first second and a half. Josh doesn't like that. He likes to have time to see what's going on. Play action from shotgun isn't as effective because the D knows they have much more time to respond to the run when the RB gets the ball more or less flat-footed instead of with a full head of steam.

Allen isn't the "singular" reason we're relevant. Like every team in history that was good, there are a lot of reasons for it. But yeah, he's one of the best QBs in the league and having an elite QB means you've got a chance to be competitive every season. Agreed with the rest of your post. Some on here do find any Josh criticism to be blasphemous in some strange way.

First, teams with good front sevens make it tough for everyone, passing game and run game. But we've had some awful games against good front sevens and also some good games over the past few years. The Texans DID blitz a lot. We still had guys open for shorter gains but this week Josh didn't go to them. Traditionally teams don't blitz him because Josh makes them pay. He did not do that yesterday.

Good point. The Bills had bad stretches all but one of the last few years. And as Joe Marino said, if they hit a couple of the longer plays they tried last game we most likely win it. And there was a win or two to be had.

It's much more complicated than that. The players have been making mistakes sometimes on plays that should work. Josh among them. The players have had trouble working together on plays that should have worked, as this is the first year together for many. The OL has been having some problems, Torrence in particular having regressed or having problems working with the new center, or something. And Khalil is getting separation very well indeed. And yes, there have been plays where they were figured out. The problem isn't a lack of new possible formations, though. Not that I'd mind seeing your formation sometime. Sounds fun.

Five games is still too small a sample. It just is. If it keeps being true, it would be worrisome. Only 56 third down situations so far. If they'd succeeded five more times they'd be in the top ten, and they're only eight conversions away from the top five. Now, how many of those five or eight 3rd down failures came on horrible drops, or bad penalty calls or on end of game kneeldowns or on 3rd and 27 situations? It's why you can't make solid conclusions with small sample size. Maybe our situations were similar to most teams. Or maybe not. Maybe we're as bad as these numbers say we are. Or maybe not. IMO we see improvement, but how much? Particularly in our WR group we've got so many guys who are working with Josh and each other for the first time and it shows.

I love how people make up conversations and then make fun of the fictional person who is disagreeing in the writer's own imagination. People weren't saying what you're pretending they did. They were mostly correcting the folks like you who would only talk about yards and catches, going out of their way not to mention TDs. They were pointing out that TDs are a part of the equation too, and an important part. Which was, and is, very true. But there's more, there's yards, there's completions, there's targets, there's blocking, route-running, etc. Few if any were calling him a "top TE," at that time, though many probably thought he might have the potential to get there if he kept improving. It was only after that contract that they had the chance to bring in Kincaid, who has greatly cut into Knox's usage.

Come on, man, removing the best game is cherry-picking. Taking the best game out of any seven-game sample and you're likely to come out not looking particularly good. Same for singling out the long run and implying you can take it out as an outlier. You run a lot and you'll have a few long runs, particularly with a guy as fast as Cook. That's just how stats work. Cherry-picking out the best stuff is distorting the picture. Jets 38 for 130, Allen 5 for 15 Eagles 40 for 173, Allen 9 for 81 Chiefs 28 for 118, Allen 10 for 32 Cowboys 49 for 266, Allen 8 for 24 Chargers 30 for 105, Allen 5 for 15 Patriots 37 for 127, Allen 11 for 44 Dolphins 36 for 128, 15 for 67 And the Jets, Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots and Dolphins was a damn tough defensive slate against the run last year. In rushing defense, those were the 25th, 10th, 18th, 16th, 17th, 4th and 7th best teams, a pretty good bunch overall, only one team below 18th best. In any case, 258 for 1047 (4.05 YPC) or all runs isn't bad when it's forcing teams to bring guys into the box and making things easier for Allen. Take out Allen's runs (63 for 268) and it's still pretty good (195 for 779, 3.99 YPC) The OC's job isn't to make his running attack efficient on a play to play basis. It's to make his whole offense productive. Brady did that. They averaged 27 PPG and 380 YPG. That's 3rd in yards and 7th in points. As for putting QBs into short-yardage, game-managing offenses, that's just what NFL defenses are doing to all good long-ball QBs the past couple of years. Mahomes' AY/A is the lowest in his career. It's not just Allen, it's everyone. (Not that I wish we hadn't been in better cap shape to better replace Diggs.) "It's too late for 2024"? In the middle of week 6? Um, no. No, it's not. And what they calculated is that with the cap situation as it is and the personnel the way it is after losing Diggs, this was the best way they could allocate resources while freeing up and improving the cap situation for the future.

Yeah. Ouch. Part of that isn't fair, though. Diggs forced his way out. That wasn't part of the plan. This is fair too, but they absolutely look like they might struggle against one-high even with him back. We'll see. Looked from early on like this might be a year when they took a step back after losing Diggs, Morse, the safeties and the others. We've seen the counter-moves opposing Ds are making. Can the Bills evolve and adapt successfully?

I'm with you. Give him a full year to process. They should be thinking long-term with Maye, but Mayo is starting to feel the pressure already.

Nah. Babich and the D have been fine to good most of the year, including this week, particularly with the injuries. Agreed that Saleh is a good DC, though.

It's early. So far, it's really that simple. Last year after week 6, Shakir had four receptions for 40 yards. Then he had a good year. Will this continue to be a problem? Dunno, nobody does, but if it still looks this way late in the season it won't be good.

Erik didn't say Brady "doesn't have the scheme to beat the defensive tendencies emerging." That's way more definitive than what he said., It implies he will never be able to handle it with his scheme, and that's way more than Erik ever said or appeared to mean. He did say that Brady will have to do a better job scheming to beat those coverages, and that appears to be very correct to me. Unless the Bills can learn to handle this variation they're getting, it will be a long season. I'm all but sure they'll scheme better and handle these variations better. But how much better? Most of this group hasn't played together or with Brady before. It'll take time to smooth the rough edges, without question. Even with the edges smoothed, will they be good enough to be legitimate contenders. That's the concern.

He wouldn't be immediately WR1 on this team. He'd maybe be in the mix. Love the young and cheap bit, but while I like the guy I don't think as much of him as you obviously do. Can't see them bringing in a guy who stays at home cuz he feels ignored. Diggs didn't stay home but still didn't fit here. They should always kick the tires but no, I don't see it.