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Everything posted by LeviF
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Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I don't think the plan is to annex all of Ukraine. I also don't think the plan is to install stooges in Ukraine. Putin has flexed what he needed to. Now it's a matter of annexing a section of land that isn't "Russian" in the ethnic sense as a buffer between Russia and NATO. As far as the economic thing goes...again I don't think anyone can reasonably tell us what it all means long term. There are long-term consequences to holding that line indefinitely. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Strictly speaking that's probably more accurate, yes. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I think both of these two things can be put to bed: Putin is genius! Putin is insane! Putin certainly can run circles around many Western leaders at this point but that's not a super high bar to clear. Certainly don't need to be a genius. And anyone claiming Putin is insane is at least one order of magnitude more insane than Putin. The goals are pretty clear, keep NATO away from the Russian border and protect their warm water ports. So far this all seems to be furthering those goals. They've made good progress getting an open path to Odessa, Kiev is surrounded, and with a path open to Odessa they'll have a path straight through the heart of Ukraine to support their Kiev strike. They're also working on cutting off the Ukrainian troops positioned in the east. At this point surrender is beyond doubt. The only questions left are what do the terms of surrender look like and what does an isolated Russia on the world stage look like? Can the West reasonably keep up the sanctions? If you're worried about your home energy bill this winter I got bad news about next winter if this all keeps up. Meanwhile I'm guessing Russia will want some land in the east of Ukraine and I'm not sure anyone has the ability to reasonably challenge that demand. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
As you stated yourself, Russia carries with it the nuclear option. Is regime change really something that can reasonably be weighed? -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Whether it’s a mistake or not, we will see. But Putin explained all this a long time ago. He sees the courting of Ukraine by NATO as a threat to Russia. You may or may not believe him but that is what he’s indicated over the last decade or so. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
The US establishment did manage to get themselves, then Europe, in line in pretty short order. The rumors of America's death appear to be greatly exaggerated. I guess the question left is, does China have the ability to step in and meet a significant portion of the demand for Russian resources currently allocated to Europe? I have no knowledge in this area. -
These dudes stay getting ripped off by "brand specialists" or ***** whatever.
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Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
He appears to be making that decision as we speak. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
That's the last *****in thing we need. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I understand the frustration in this conversation. JA is saying "if 'ifs' and 'buts' were candy and nuts" while in politics it's satisfying and natural to complain about past action. Past action is the best predictor of future behavior, after all. But the reality of the CURRENT situation is unfortunate. Kiev (kyiv, whatever) is surrounded. Western media is floating regime change in Russia. The only thing left for NATO and the US to do is try to do ANYTHING to give Russia something to gain from restraint. That's the only way this ends (relatively, at this point) well. Intense economic sanctions are basically all that's left, assuming WWIII is not a viable solution. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Just a reminder that everyone who was wrong about: masks, vax, BLM, COVID "conspiracies," and (going back further) Iraq are banging the drum for Ukraine in lockstep. This is not a value proposition, just a statement. From what I'm understanding currently the Russian offensive is progressing faster than the 2003 US invasion of Iraq did. -
a. Known quality deli b. Publix Pick one.
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Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Cutting them off from SWIFT would almost certainly speed this along and would likely signal the inevitable end of the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency. Though now it appears as though Russia will still have SWIFT access. I doubt Germany ever gets on board. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
What’s cool about war, apparently: CNN found their big boy pants and are giving TV time to actual reporters on the ground during a world event rather than to d-list personalities in an sterile NY office -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Wtf are you two on about? -
So glad the adults are back in the room.
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Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
The reality is that US foreign policy has been largely dog**** for decades. There hasn't been an executive administration that has helped itself substantially in this regard since JFK. With regard to Russia, blunders all the way back to before the fall of the USSR. This ***** doesn't happen in a vacuum. Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, Obama, Trump, Biden - it runs through all seven of these administrations one way or another. Russia could have been a great ally. It's far too late for that now. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Yeah, my track record certainly indicates that I'm overly fond of ex-spooks leftover from a communist kakistocracy. ***** off. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Moral judgments on most types of governments in a vacuum is a fool's errand. I'm not sure you and I speak about the same things when we say "regime" so I'll decline to answer that question. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I think the regime in the United States hasn't a leg to stand on when trying to speak on matters of national sovereignty. -
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
LeviF replied to Tiberius's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Yeah, causing people to be terrorized and hide in bomb shelters is reserved strictly for those backwards nations with a different form of government.