SageAgainstTheMachine

You don't see many short from 50 these days.

It's all over for the Pats. Puts a smile on my face.

Denver is probably the hardest opponent but Lock is dealing with hurt ribs too and looked awful last week. Gotta play the games of course, but right now they've got the seas parting.

Whomever loses between the Titans and Ravens will feel like they're in free fall heading into their matchups against the Colts and Steelers next week. This is one of the bigger regular season games.

Really sucks. Also fate is a fullback for the Dolphins this year. I think they'll be 9-3.

I love listening to Romo describe exactly what's going to happen before it happens.

Brown. Dear lord.

Lee Smith is Schrodinger's TE, simultaneously on and not on the Bills.

I always got a kick out of the "Get CJ the ball in space" people, as if that wasn't the opposing defense's #1 priority at all times.

Ummm. Ok.

He was the most productive player on some of the leaner Yankees teams of the post-dynasty era but l never quite got the sense he was a leader of those teams so I was pretty fine with it when he left for Seattle. Still, an awesome player to watch. Both at the plate and in the field he was one of those athletes who made it all look effortless.

Not that you necessarily need to hunt for this guy in the top of the draft but one piece that will help Josh reach the next level is a good 3rd down pass catching RB. Right now Yeldon is the closest we have and for reasons only the coaches know they don't think he's good enough to see the field except as an injury replacement.

I'm fine with a 2:1 pass to run ratio but I'm tired of being stuck with 2nd & 9 whenever we do run it. I agree that it should be a top priority.

One of the purest left handed swings ever. He never played like he loved the game. What a poor ending.

Is there a better slot receiver than Beasley? For me it's Allen, Diggs and Beasley.

Football Outsiders has the same 87% chance at the playoffs but 69% at the division. It's hard for me to wrap my mind around 87% with a half game lead (especially given our BBFS) but I believe it holds water. The Bills control their destiny.

If I'd have told you the Bills would be in 3rd place at the bye you probably would have hugged me. If I'd have told you the Bills would be a half game ahead of 9th place at the bye you probably would have socked me in the jaw, and I probably would have said "Hey, what was that for?" and you probably would have said "The Bills underachieving" and I probably would have said "Well don't take it out on me" and you probably would have said "You're right. It's not your fault." Well as it turns out both are true, with an unprecedented nine teams at 6-3 or better in the AFC. It's a pretty polarized situation as you have two teams (Steelers and Chiefs) who are virtual locks for the playoffs and seven teams that may as well be mathematically eliminated (mayyybe the Pats could pull it off but they need to go 6-1 and they just don't have a talented enough roster in my opinion). That leaves 5 playoff spots for the following 7 teams... Bills 7-3 Colts 6-3 Raiders 6-3 Dolphins 6-3 Ravens 6-3 Browns 6-3 Titans 6-3 Unlike, say, the Bears who started 5-1 but just didn't pass the eye test as a playoff team, I'd say there isn't a single team on this list that you'd call a safe bet to drop off the map. I personally believe the Browns are the worst team of the bunch but they have the easiest remaining schedule with games remaining against the Eagles, Jags, Jets and Giants. All in all, it's pretty weird to look at this season's success and still be that close to the outside looking in. But how close is it really? Let's take a look... Now obviously the best way to stay above the fray here is to win the division. Our big advantage there is that the first tiebreaker is head to head and we already beat the Dolphins once. That means Week 17 will be a win-and-in for the Bills if we're tied with them or trailing by 1 game. If we're leading them by 1 game it will already be clinched if we beat the Patriots seeing as the second tiebreaker is division record and we sit at 4-0 while the Fins are 2-2. On a personal level as a fan who started watching in 2001 I want to see Buffalo at the top of the division, but it'll be sweeter next season with fans in attendance. The notion of a home playoff game this particular year is more about getting the easier opponent in Round 1 than anything. But let's say the Dolphins just keep blocking punts and taking back INTs and Tua's great and they go 13-3. How does the rest of the conference shake out? The good news is that several of those 6-3 teams play one another down the stretch, whereas we play none of them except the Dolphins The key matchups are... Week 11 - Titans vs Ravens Week 12 - Titans vs Colts Week 13 - Browns vs Titans Week 14 - Colts vs Raiders, Ravens vs Browns Week 16 - Dolphins vs Raiders Assuming there are no ties, that's 6 losses automatically into the fold. Until the situation further plays out, it really doesn't matter to us who wins those games other than the consideration that the Titans have the tiebreaker on us so we probably want them to win that division over the Colts. Then you have the games remaining between the logjam teams and the Superbowl contender types. Those are... Week 11 - Chiefs vs Raiders, Packers vs Colts Week 12 - Steelers vs Ravens Week 14 - Chiefs vs Dolphins Week 16 - Steelers vs Colts Week 17 - Steelers vs Browns That's another 6 games where there are conservatively at least 4 impending losses. (We, of course, play the Steelers as well). This isn't even to mention that inevitably some of the lower AFC teams and mid-level NFC teams will score spoiler wins for us. In other words it's not as if ALL of these teams will be sitting at 11-5 by season's end even though they're all technically on pace for it. I believe at least one will be at 9-7 (odds on favorite, the Titans), with a solid chance of the 8th place team being 10-6 if the bottom of the AFC continues to disappoint. So where does that leave the Bills chances over their final 6 games? Basically this: (Note: I'm aware that this is educated guess speculation, not math. There are literally millions of permutations of what could happen, but I'm talking about what's likely to happen) 6-0 - Division Crown 5-1 - Division Crown 4-2 - Wildcard lock, solid chance at division 3-3 - Solid chance at wildcard, tossup for division 2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division 1-5 - Miss playoffs 0-6 - Miss playoffs In conclusion - the scary looking wall of 6-3 teams isn't actually all that scary. We only miss the playoffs by playing a lot worse than we have for the first 10 games and if that's the case I don't really want to see the team rewarded by backing in anyway.

Thank you for this well researched and important analysis. I'm considering not even watching the annual Bills charity tennis match this year.

The Marauders and Wildcats. I don't think anyone would even notice them missing.

Yep, I was sick to my stomach for about 5 minutes. But if you told me after the Chiefs loss that we'd be 7-3 heading into the bye I'd have hugged you.

Gotta move past it. 1-1 against Seattle and Arizona is a good result no matter how it specifically happened.

So this is insane but if we lose this game we will be a half game ahead of 9th place in the AFC.

First TD for Cardinals is 40 minutes into the game. We got this. Get it right back Josh.

That "No Excuses for Bass" thread aged well...

Which of the turnovers was lucky?