Agreed. I was thinking of an analogy to baseball earlier today. Modern analytics have shown that teams actually score quite a few more runs by embracing a higher variance strategy of hitting more home runs and striking out more, which is counterintuitive to the classic strategy of having a couple power hitters and filling out the rest of your lineup with guys who will hit singles, bunt, steal bases, hit and run, etc. Old hats still consider the latter to be the "right" way to play the game but statistics show it doesn't actually work.
Of course, even within that paradigm, there come plenty of game situations where it's best not to swing for the fences. Runner on 2nd and nobody out in a tie game? Yeah, move him over to 3rd. Just like Josh probably shouldn't have thrown those two bombs down the sideline when we wanted to chew clock midway through the 4th quarter.