Alphadawg7

I can see that, but from a target share standpoint I still think no one is projecting him to be above Rice, Kelce, and Brown.

I didn't say it was a "Fact" he is a backup...I said "projected to be a backup". The fact was clearly about the draft capital investment.

I didn't act like that...how many times are you going to mistake what I say as if I said something else? Fact: Bills turned their ONE pick at 28 into 3 players who have starter potential in Keon, Davis, and SPVG. Are you disputing that? Fact: Chiefs used their 1st and 3rd to get one player: Worthy - who is projected to be a backup WR and the 4th target for the Chiefs behind Rice, Hollywood and Kelce. I did not say the Bills got all the picks from KC, I said that is what Buffalo turned their one 28th pick into as OPPOSED to just drafting Worthy at 28...you know the ONLY way to assure that KC didn't draft him. And then I showed the amount KC invested to actually get him. So we took 1 first round pick and turned it into multiple picks to get 3 potential starters...they used 2 premium picks to get 1 backup WR. That was the point.

I mean, Worthy is a lot thinner than Devonta. Devonta isn't big, but he has a sturdier and thicker frame than Worthy who really is one of the thinnest WR's I have seen in a long time. Nor is Worthy the same level of prospect coming out as you mentioned. He isn't an elite deep threat though...he is a rookie with potential to be one, but he has not established that at all yet. Also, KC's game is not the deep ball anyway, they pass more near or behind the LOS than most anyone in the league going back to when Hill was even there. And nobody likes seeing a rival get weapons, agreed. But also, who cares, that is outside of our control and pointless to dwell on it. Who they draft is on them, it is not our GM's job to take players lower on his board and draft them to keep them from being drafted by a rival. His job is to draft the players he feels are the best options for the team for what they are looking for based on their scouting and final board. The only way to keep Worthy from KC was to draft him, and clearly we didn't want to draft him or would have. And look at this way...Beane literally turned the 28th pick into Keon Coleman, Ray Davis, and SPVG. Chiefs turned their 32nd and 3rd round pick into just Xavier Worthy. I would take Keon, Davis, and SPVG...3 players who not only could see big roles this year, but all have long term starter potential over a stick figure framed WR whose probably more a WR2 or WR3 in the NFL than he is a lead WR1. So worrying about who KC drafted is a waste of energy IMHO. Especially for a team who has a poor track record with WR's lately.

To directly answer this question, yes I do. Like anyone, its just a guess though as so much is new as we all know. I think the better quesion is...Do I think it means a whole lot...no I don't. 2 guys around 900 yards in a 17 game season with Josh Allen does not at all sound far fetched...nor impressive. I am only discussing it because this 2 in the top 32 thing has taken on a life of its own the last handful of pages here. Well that has more to do with the target distribution and group makeup where Cole lost a step, Gabe was splitting time for a couple years, Kincaid arrived to divide the non Diggs targets further, etc. And remember it is 241 targets to redistribute just from Diggs and Davis. I do agree with you about this. Which is why I am kind of just like why all this wasted energy about 2 guys in the top 32...that doesn't really mean much, it won't take much to make happen most likely based on the 3 year averages to do so since going to 17 game seasons. So if you were to ask me...yes I do think we will have 2 in the top 32. But I also think that tells me nothing about the quality of our offense. If one guy has 1250 yards, and another has 1075 yards...odds are, we might still have a pretty good offense. But if that was we had one guy get 907 yards and another 892 yards with the other guys lagging further behind in the 300-600 range...well then I think the offense is not going to be good enough because we won't likely have a D like KC had last year to be able to still win a SB with the offense they had.

How many of you watched the show "Receiver" yet on Netflix? If you haven't, go watch like the first 3 episodes. Go look at the pain Kittle, Davante, Deebo, and St. Brown are in off routine and regular hits who are all considerably stronger and bigger than Worthy. Go see what it really is like for receivers in the NFL on a daily basis...it gives you great insight. Then ask yourself if Worthy's light frame is going to be physical enough to not only play within that physicality but also endure it. It is a real question mark for him. Worthy got to go to a place where he can be WR3 behind the bigger guys of Kelce and Rice. In Buffalo, we were more shopping for a potential WR1 and a guy who can bring some size and toughness to the outside spot as the other top 2 guys were Shakir and Samuel, neither seen as big enough to be primarily on the outside. So I just don't get how people can't see the difference between how one situation may good for said player, but that doesn't mean every situation would have been either. PS: It is also just pads and shorts, we have seen guys who don't make our rosters or play very little if they do make eye popping plays in shorts here...it doesn't mean a lot at this stage.

Couple of things...I have been seeing this whole "top 32" conversation going on for a while amongst multiple posters since one certain poster introduced it. But what does it take to be in the top 32 on average? Last 3 years (prior to that it was 16 game seasons, so only last 3 years are equal comparisons) In 2023, the 32nd was Rice with 938 and 31st was Hockenson with 960 (Kelce, who was referenced with Rice had 984 at 29th) In 2022, the 32nd was Donovan People Jones with 839 and 31st was Mark Andrews with 847 In 2021, the 32nd was Jakobi Meyers with 866 and 31st was AJ Brown with 869. That means the average yardage needed over the past 3 seasons for 2 players to finish in the top 32 is 881 yards (32nd) and 892 (31st) Ok...now we actually know what needs to happen to have "2 top 32" players. So do you really think that the Bills having 2 players finish above 881 yards is that implausible this year while Josh Allen is the QB of this franchise? Diggs and Davis alone ate up 241 targets by themselves last season. With those facts, the following still occured: Kincaid has the 4th most receptions (73) and 10th most yards (673) for a rookie TE in NFL history...and he missed a game last year. Shakir put up 611 yards on just 38 rec on only 45 targets...and he was barely used first third of the season. So those 2 returning targets are now going to see a decent chunk of those 241 departed targets. Kincaid - He only needs 208 more yards (and that is before you factor in him missing a game last year) this year to hit that min average to be in the top 32. Shakir - He only needs 270 more yards to do the same this year. Which of those above is crazy? Not only is neither crazy, but I would argue that its both plausible and expected that Kincaid should put up another 200+ yards this year min with the increased targets he will see. And same for Shakir because no one expects him to be seeing only 45 targets again and it is quite possible his targets double or more this season. So is 270 more yards for him really that much a stretch of the imagination? Additional facts about the current group: Samuel last time under Brady and with a bad QB put up 77 rec and 851 yards (in a 16 game season, meaning in a 17 game season he would have been top 32) Keon is a better prospect than Gabe Davis was coming out of college, yet Davis put up 600 yards as a rookie who wasn't a full time starter. So if Keon starts all year, is putting up 280 more yards than Gabe did as a rookie that much an impossibility? We have Josh Allen. I don't need to list all his accolades as a QB, we can all agree he is elite. Everything is an opinion right now...but I don't get why this "top 32" convo has become such a big deal here, it means we had 2 guys roughly around 880-900 yards. We have 2 ascending players who don't need much of an expanded role to hit those, we have 2 guys who have done it already before in Samuel and Claypool as well to factor in, and a promising Rookie where getting to 900 yards for a starting rookie WR isn't a crazy thought on its own right. How anyone can talk like this is some impossibility is beyond me. Is it a sure thing...nope...but I do think its more plausible than not. This I agree with...I don't trust our defense the way KC's defense played for them last year as one of the best in the league and Chris Jones literally closed out multiple playoff games for them including ours and the Super Bowl.

No disrespect, but those 3 coaches signed deals with GM powers, they are not an example of any kind to a traditional HC and GM role. If Head Coaches had that kind of control then Carrol, Belichick, and Parcells wouldn't have to have it put in their contracts as part of their roles. Andy Reid also had GM powers in Philly as part of his contract, and it is why he got fired because he was a terrible GM and when he was out looking for another job he had to make clear he was not going to need GM powers again or he wouldn't have gotten hired. And currently, Belichick has had to do the same, to make clear he is not searching for a job where he is both HC with GM powers again because he is not seen as a good GM. McD has final say on the field, and Beane has final say on personnel. Not only is this contractually their relationship, they both have at length talked very open about it over the years. Still have doubts, well there is hours of draft room footage over the years that confirm it is Beane's show. Everyone is entitled to their opinion of course, but honestly not really sure this is an opinion situation, it just isn't the case with McD and Beane.

Respectfully disagree. McD is not the GM for one and two Beane traded up for multiple offensive players including Allen, Kincaid, and Diggs (he gave up our first and a fourth, the equivalent of trading up). And “trading out of round 1” sounds worse than moving back 1 spot. The fact it changes rounds doesn’t change the fact it was only 1 spot. And everyone knew who Carolina was after, the home town Legette, it was the worst kept secret of the draft. So there was no risk going back one spot. And as already been discussed many times, and Beane has said so himself, they made a small move back because they had multiple players they liked and were assured they still get one. It doesn’t mean they don’t prioritize the position or offense. - 3 of our last 5 drafts our top pick was on a weapon for Allen. - 4 of our 6 first and 2nd round picks have been offense the past 3 drafts. - Since we began to rebuild around Allen in 2019, looking at our first 4 picks of each draft, 15 of the 24 were offense. No disrespect bud, but I mean what more do you want? 100% focus early all offense each draft and try and find defense only on day 3?

Don't forget Bills also used a 1st and 4th to acquire a WR in his prime in Diggs. So in 3 of the past 5 drafts the Bills used their first pick in the draft on a receiving weapon for Josh. So my person opinion is that I just do not believe at all they had expected to replace both Diggs and Davis in one offseason. First, they extended him with a big extension...then last offseason they restructured him making him difficult to trade because of the massive cap hit, so their actions clearly support that IMO. But, between the fresh start preferred by what sounds like by both sides, and the fact Beane was able to get a lot more for Diggs now vs later, they moved up the moving on from him a season and pulled the trigger now. Especially after Brady came in and turned the season around where Diggs was leaned on a lot less.

Let me clarify...I was saying the initial problem is Hollis, he is who he is directly coming in behind so the first sign of progress would be to move ahead of him. I mean wherever Claypool moves up to it still pushes Hollis down as now you have 4 guys ahead of him in Keon, Shakir, Claypool, and Samuel. So that would make Hollis more of a WR5 which would mean he is probably more of a blocking and ST specialist as anyone that far back probably isn't getting many targets. First thing I will say there is one thing I am supremely confident about is that they aren't going to play Keon just because of his draft status. They have proven that many times now. But I do agree they see him as a big contributor this year and he is coming in as its his job to lose right now vs having someone ahead of him he has to take the job from. But...the guy I think Claypool is competing against to get starter level involvement is more Samuel. With Shakir in the slot and Keon at the X, that leaves Samuel to maybe have to play more outside than he probably should potentially. So I think that is where his best opportunity is, to get on the field more in that outside role opposite Keon and make Samuel more of a swiss army knife that can spell the guys outside and Shakir inside while also taking some snaps in the backfield.

This is a fair point, and absolutely valid. I do however also feel it is a bit over emphasized here sometimes as if just having a top end option of a player suddenly makes him good vs bad. Having that guy undoubtedly is an advantage, but the other guy still is facing a starting corner, still has to win his routes, still has to beat zone, still also sees the defenses top DB at times, still has to make the catches, and still has to run with the ball once in his hands. This kind of gets talked about like any player opposite a Diggs, Moore, etc just has this easy path and runs around with ease...it just isn't to that level. Most defenses don't have their top corner shadow one player, so as Receivers move around the field they find themselves being guarded by different people, including that teams top corner. Additionally...elite corners are not aplenty around the league. For a lot of teams, there is not always even a significant difference between their top corners and 2nd corner. And...more importantly, this common assumption on the board this offseason that defenses will never look to double someone on the Bills because Diggs isn't here is a bit of an exaggeration too. There will be times where different guys are going to draw extra attention, and even more so if guys like Kincaid, Shakir, or Keon consistently are able to make plays. Not to mention, unlike most other teams, opposing defenses need to also spy Allen.

The bolded is a great way to phrase it...he really is, we have no risk here with tons of potential. Like you, not holding my breath, the kind of transformation he needs to make is no small hill to climb. It is always easy in the beginning to be patient, say the right things, etc. But if he starts to feel like he is deserving of moving up the ladder more as camp and preseason progresses and maybe isn't yet, that is when his maturity and entitlement issues will be tested. Will this guy put the work in no matter his role, that is the question.

No doubt Claypool has the most upside from a pure talent perspective. So I am hoping to see him get back on track, because he is actually the most accomplished WR on this roster right now based on best season of production, and he did it twice his first 2 years in the league before his immaturity sunk his standing and career. He is saying all the right things so far...but it is easy to say the right things when you have accepted that you are coming in at the bottom to try and work your way up. My big question is what happens when the 2nd preseason game just concluded and he is still running with the backups? Is he going to start getting frustrated or feeling like he is owed more if say he has had a strong camp but guys like Samuel or even Hollis are still clearly ahead of him? I mean Hollis is not going to be easy to over take. He has shown he has receiver ability, he is also a very good blocker and very good ST player. They went out and got him long before they looked at Claypool too. Hollis doesn't offer the same top end potential Claypool does, but with Keon, Shakir and Samuel firmly up there on the top, Claypool is fighting to get into that WR4 category where the guy in front of him brings a lot of the dirty work to the table that doesn't always show up on the stat sheets. But again, Claypool has starter level potential here. Bears traded a first round pick for him 2 seasons ago despite his maturity issues sinking him in Pit. In an ideal world, he keeps impressing and it is him and Keon starting on the outside with Shakir in the Slot and Samuel rotating in amongst them and into the backfield at times. But that is a long road for Claypool to climb, it won't be handed to him. And I want to see how he mentally handles disappointment and frustration from a maturity stand point before I feel like the kid is turning things around.

Diggs is definitely not washed. His numbers greatly declined through how the offense evolved and the reduced effort to forcefully feed him the ball. But the most important thing is that Diggs does not HAVE to be washed for the trade to be right move. Personally because of the cap hit, I thought there was almost no chance he would be traded this offseason without some significant change behind the scenes and had expected us to move on next offseason initially. And since the trade more has come out that certainly suggests a change was in the best interest of both parties...not to mention, Beane got the most for him doing it now and gets to cap freedom quicker. I don't have any ill will towards Diggs, I agree with Dion and have said it here multiple times in the past, that Diggs is more misunderstood than anything. All he is driven by at this stage of his career is winning a ring. And Diggs was frustrated with losing and was losing confidence the Bills are going to be able to get it done before his abilities diminish with cap issues and a lot of changes coming as a result. From the Bills perspective, the constant narrative around Diggs every week, the social media stuff, and with how he wears those frustrations and emotions on his sleeve even in the locker room I think were just wearing thin with Josh and the team. So IMHO I think this was a good result for both parties

I don’t disagree with this, even if in an ideal world we would see him put back to back seasons together first. But locking him up before the price gets too high is definitely a smart play as well.

Correct me if I am wrong, wasn’t Allen the least sacked QB last year? I think that is what the host said to Dawkins in a recent interview, but could be mistaken. But like I said, I prefer to see Brown another season and also stay healthy again too. But at the same time I wouldn’t have an issue locking him up either as I feel like he showed enough last year to be confident in him being a starter.

I don’t disagree that we won’t know until we see this season, and really won’t know later in the season. Im not going to get too high or low on the offense early either. One, if we come out hot…well that is great and all, but means little when teams don’t have a lot of tape on this offense. How the offense fares once teams have the film to game plan against it and how Brady adjusts will be the key to how this offense goes later in the season and playoffs. Two, if we come out slow…well there are a lot of new parts and a new offense, Allen’s third to learn in 3 years and kind of 4th if you count adjusting to Brady for last part of the year last year. So it may not click right away and we may need to have some patience before they start to gel and find their rhythm and chemistry. So regardless to how the offense looks early, you are right in saying we won’t probably have a more confident understanding and picture of what it really is until later in the season like November

I was always about preaching patience with him and felt he showed enough promise to see what he could do once healthy again. And I feel like he did that last year and I would like to see him stay, although I would feel more comfortable seeing him put up another healthy and good season first to be safe.

Really? I have not heard anything about this, so must have missed this chatter. Can you fill me in more on this or share any additional info? Thanks in advance Keep in mind, there is context not showing up there too. Brady took over week 11 and had to coach out of someone else's system Drops were an issue with Diggs and Davis and there were games where Diggs and Davis were invisible as our starting WR's The SOS was much higher over Brady's 7 games than Dorsey's 10 Every game was practically a high-pressure playoff game where he had to avoid mistakes and not try and force as many throws, so I felt like he threw the ball away more (To be clear that is an opinion, I didn't look to see if there was any stat on that, just what I felt when watching the games)

Yeah, its not like Allen is infallible, all players have strengths and weaknesses...but Allens strengths GROSSLY outweigh his weaknesses to the point calling overrated, let alone one of the more overrated players in the NFL is beyond stupidity. There is not another QB in the NFL not named Mahomes that people would take over Allen right now.

Dude you just got caught lying and gaslighting and you want to pretend I am? LMAO...you are priceless and clown at the same time for even trying. I laid it all out there...it is black and white, you cant deny nor hide from it. You are literally the king of gaslighting and you are doing it to others in this same thread lying to them and misusing statements to mean something else. I warned you not to try these games with me anymore in our private messages...you can't help yourself and your Napolean complex to where you try and bully over everyone in every convo and will lie and change narratives to do it. Your game is up and tired.

Fair enough, while I don’t personally share this same opinion, I get why you have Redzone concerns if you feel this way. Yeah Hollins is an underrated signing here IMHO. He is a guy who brings credible ability as a receiver, but also is a very good blocker to help replace that part of Gabe’s game that he actually did quite well. And he is a very good ST player. He will have more value to this team than Sherfield and Harry did combined IMHO.

I get the concern, but I actually think our roster is better suited for redzone play this year over last year. Obviously its all just a guess right now...but here is why I feel that way. Keon is going to bring redzone value, Kincaid is now in year 2 and we still have Knox giving us a lot of athletic size. Shakir and Samuel are threats out of the slot who can run crisp routes and make the catch, especially Shakir. And gone are the over the hill compliments to Cook where we have Davis who is a tough runner who accelerates through the hole. Plus Brady finally brought movement with a purpose to the offense after Dorsey was fired. Then there is still the guy with the most TD's the past 4 seasons who is a redzone beast in Allen. So for me, the redzone is where I feel more comfortable with this squad. Beane even discussed how he was thinking about the redzone when constructing this group. Personally, my bigger question marks will be the longer parts of the field and will they consistently be able to attack all 3 levels to avoid defenses clamping down on them.

Fixed that for you In reality, no one with any longevity bats .500 either. The great Bill Walsh traded up a bounty for JJ Stokes and called him the next Jerry Rice. Also said Jim Druckenmiller reminded him of Joe Montana. Yeah...none of these guys are batting .500 but it's the quality of the ones they get right that make or break a GM.