Alphadawg7

An all time classic episode

I think there are a lot of people who dont listen to Allen, Brady, McD, and Beane speak enough and therefore dont truly understand our offense, what is going on during games, and the overall philosophy. I see a lot of people saying we call a lot of deep shots but no ones open...well first of all, thats not accurate. There have been guys open plenty of times, but what people don't understand about our offense is many of our routes being run on a given play are being done so to specifically get another guy open. Just because Josh doesn't throw a deep shot doesn't by default mean "nobody is ever open", yet that is all that is echoed here. People on here and media keep saying things that Josh is checking down or taking whats there and not even realizing the pass he threw, the routes run, etc were intentional and by design. Allen, Brady, McD, Beane, all talk about this all the time and its the true meaning of "everybody eats" and everyone buying in because they are running routes hard and selling them knowing full well before the snap they aren't getting the ball even if open because the play is designed to go elsewhere. So what a lot of people are blaming on players is really by design within the offense. And the Bills are doing this because it allows them to control the game, TOP, protect the ball and still put points up. And when they get behind, they know they can open up the offense more (see Balt) and get a lot more aggressive. But when they are leading or in a close game, they play this game because its been highly effective for them. Now one doesn't have to like or agree with how they are doing it, but that is what is really going on, its not this "because no one is open we can only do this" as much as people want to always harp on. And the result is - in the last 12 games, including the playoffs, Josh Allen has over 3000 yards and 30 TDs to 1 turnover - an insane run that is almost hard to believe. The Bills now have an NFL record of 25 straight games of not losing the turnover battle. There is a lot I think they are taking from what KC and NE did during their dynasties, which is be elite at the short area throws, move the chains, and keep putting the pressure on the other team to not make mistakes and still have to keep pace with the offense. We are watching SB Winning football right now. The play calling hasn't been perfect, in fact there are times especially in the first 2 weeks I hated some of the play calling especially, but they are finding their way and I think the overall philosophy is the kind of football that wins close games and will win the playoffs. I don't think they have quite mastered it just yet, but I think they are going to only get sharper and more consistent with it as they settle in with all the new pieces as we move forward.

He was always RB3 last year and this year. Cook is RB1 and Ty is the 3rd down back, so there is nothing new or shocking about his role, he is a backup to Cook who is a feature back and Ty comes in on passing downs at times.

Last 2 weeks the Bills D is giving up 15.5 ppg (and missing 2 of our best players either one or both the weeks) and the offense is avg 30.5 ppg. Not sure it’s time to panic when we are carrying an average of 15 point differential since our come back win on Balt. And with Oliver and Milano missing time. There are things we certainly need to improve on, and on both sides of the ball. But I wouldn’t be sounding any alarms yet either.

Just my 2 cents - but I dont think Beane felt Coleman was going to take longer to develop, just based on things he said IMHO. I think they felt Coleman could come in and help an undersized WR room early, and he was on a pretty good pace (1000 yard+ season pace) the 5 games prior to getting hurt. And last year was also being looked at a a mini retooling year, so there was the added value of the extra draft capital too, which is why he made the 1 spot down. And I think he did because the worst kept secret in the draft was Carolinas crush on the local Leggett. I think they were pretty certain he would be the pick, which is why they felt comfortable doing it IMHO. Beane said entering that draft they were focused on trading back and try and replace the 3rd they lost on Rasul. And thats exactly what they did, that plan seemingly was laid out before the draft even began. Now context of the draft can change plans, but based on how the board fell, Beane was clearly still interested in moving back and he got back the 3rd he was after.

He will always be officially a 2nd rounder. But it was our first round pick, Carolina slid back 1 spot to make him a 2nd rounder, but Keon was our pick at 31 and we still used that pick to acquire Keon while adding an extra pick. So its still essentially our first round pick we used to get him. Never understood this need to focus on it being our "2nd" rounder to imply we invested "less" into the position so many people like to do (not saying either of you are, just it happens a lot by plenty). We still took our first pick, from the first round and flipped it into a WR 1 slot later.

This isn't how these things are graded though. Every top end WR is going to look cheap on a per catch basis because of the volume difference. And all teams have these exact same mathematical discrepancies in this regard.

This is a giant nothing burger if you ask me. Just my 2 cents

The Browns

I don’t disagree, it’s why I said Ben got too much credit and praise for “Goff” who only regressed in LA because their OL became a casualty of their spending and a trainwreck. Once Detroit built up the line and talent around him, Goff became the more the guy he was when he led LA to their first SB appearance of McVays tenure. I was surprised Ben took the job without Poles being fired whose been an awful GM. Nothing is worse for a HC than being saddled with a terrible FO, let alone a first time HC.

I know I already answered your question, but let me ask you this as a follow up and a way to think about it, at least the way I think about it: What $47M cap expenditure makes the most impact on the win - loss record for the Bills: $47M on Micah and the loss of 2 first round picks. $35M on Justin Jefferson and $12M on Cook and 2 more premium first round prospects (or even trading those first round picks for other impact players). That is 4 players, including an elite player better at his job than Micah is at his, and an excellent RB and 2 more guys who are first round picks. And that is if you spend the $47M on just 2 guys - and really pick any two impact guys on either side of the ball, point remains the same. You could actually spend it on 3, maybe 4 impact players depending on the positions and still have 2 more guys from the 2 first round picks via drafting or trading those picks. That is why for me, Micah just isnt worth that much, he doesn't impact wins and losses to the same degree as a QB (the only other players making that much money) or the combo of great to elite players that can be spread around the team for that same cap space and also with the draft picks.

Come on dude - now you are trying to turn this into a defense discussion? I never responded to or discussed anything related to the defense. I simply corrected the false claims of the offensive average per game he made. This is starting to feel like a Naked Gun sequel. You literally just tried to manufacture a defensive convo I didn't once have or participate in to mask being wrong in your previous post. But now you also come right back in the same reply here and say "topic of this thread is about Brady's offenses" - after you just tried to talk about defense? And I already answered your question - but since its still somehow not landing, here it is again: The poster I responded to brought up the last 5 years and made it about the Allen led offense, not about Brady, and he cited incorrect numbers in his post about it. And I responded about his comments regarding the era he brought up, and corrected the inaccurate numbers he posted. So go ask him, like I already told you, it was his discussion not mine. You are clearly here to just argue at this point, no matter how illogical it gets No - neither Josh Allen or Joe Brady has. You want to talk about OJ next in terms of how the offense looked weeks 1 and 2 this year? Again, one comment you are "This is about Brady" then proceed to try and argue about defense and the Kelly era. Lol

No he did not. You cant seem to follow this convo very well. He said we put up 30+ while our defense gives up 33+ which wasn't even true. I think you need to read the posts better because you keep asking me things about stuff he keeps saying or he keeps incorrectly citing. For example 👇 Why dont you ask him this question - he is the one that keeps talking about non Brady years and including the last 5 years, and now bringing up the Kelly years too lol - I am only responding to his post that are lumping all this in, so you need to ask him these questions.

Huh? You said we average 30+ points per game in our last 5 playoff losses. Bills have not even been to 4 AFC championship games, what are you even talking about. 5 playoff losses: 29+24+10+36+24 = 123 and over 5 games that is 24.6 ppg. We only broke 30 one time in 5 playoff exits.

I didnt leave any games out, I pointed out the more recent performances as you keep wanting to discuss the past 5 years even though that has no relevancy to this topic. And I didn't even point out your numbers were wrong. You said "the offense averages 30+ points per game over the past 5 playoff losses" which is just a made up statement because the real number is 24.6 ppg. When someone just makes up numbers to sell a bias it is hard to even stay on topic at that point. Again, agree to disagree. There is no way an honest and unbiased review of the offense in the first 2 games comes away without things to work on or improve. You want to turn the cheek and think it was perfect, great, whatever suits you. I prefer to stay in the realm of reality where 251 yards came in 1 quarter made possible by 5 miracles and running a 2 min offense the whole quarter different than the offense we ran the other 7 quarters. And my personal opinion, play calling and execution were where we had the most to improve on in those moments. And what is silly about this, this back and forth has made it sound like I am concerned, which I am not and have to keep saying I am not concerned to be clear. But its more about how upset you are that others are being more unbiased when looking at what went well and also what did not go well for the offense these 2 weeks that should have really resulted in a 1-1 record.

I am not, read the person I responded too - they keep discussing the offense over the past 5 years under Allen, not just under Brady. They mentioned the PPG over the past 5 years in playoff losses, so I responded with the more recent 3 years doesn't pain the same picture, not to mention his original stats were incorrect which I didn't even address TBH.

Okay so we don't count games now. Should we not count the Pats game in 2022 because the Pats suck? I mean what are we even doing now. Picking and choosing what we count to pretend everything is 100% perfect all the time? All good, you want to pretend the offense was amazing weeks 1 and 2 with nothing to work on - thats your perogative. I on the other hand see room for improvement, especially in how we call plays so far the first 2 weeks if we want to win a SB this year. And I am confident we will, but that doesn't change the fact it had issues the first 2 weeks.

You seem to be disconnected from reality - the playoff losses the last 3 years say otherwise where our offense averaged 21 ppg. And in the last 2, it was the offense who came up short at the end to lose those games. Granted, the defense IMO has been way worse, but to pretend the offense hasn't had its own things both these 2 weeks and in the playoffs in losses is just not accurate at all.

I will be honest, there isn't a game we should lose on this schedule. Every year elite teams lose a game or two they shouldn't, so not saying we are going undefeated, but its hard to pick one we would lose. The only truly tough game will be Phi, and they are not the same team there were last year and odds are we have the 1 seed locked up by then and may not even play starters. So I am looking at the first 15 games, and there isn't a game where we are not a heavy favorite except KC where we will be a favorite, just may not be a "heavy" favorite like most every other game. No joke, we might be undefeated or sitting on just one loss heading into that Eagles game if the Bills can keep their focus and take care of the teams we should beat. If I had to guess, I am thinking NE sneaks a win in with a scrappy upstart team and divisonal rival. But still not sure we lose a game before week 15.

Except no one cares about regular season - the concern is when we lose in the playoffs, we see a lot of the issues we just saw in the first 2 weeks of the season end our season every year. So again, ignore the warts all you want, but history has shown these warts have sent us home several times in the post season. I very much believe this is going to be different this year, so dont take my comments as if I am down on the team, I am not. But there are valid concerns of where the offense had struggles during the first 2 weeks where week 1 really should have been a loss (thank you Balt) and week 2 performance is the kind of performance that might have been a loss against a better team or in the playoffs - at the very least a much closer game. So, no need to get upset over people discussing some of the issues that were affecting this offense that would be be problematic if they persist or show up in a key playoff game. Again - I am not concerned, the offense I expect to find its groove more, just naive to pretend we didn't have things we need to work on for this team to win a SB.

So you just keep glossing over everything still I see. So you have no concern that most of that in the 4th quarter had like less than a 1% chance of happening but did. So no concern about how we were in a 99% chance to lose until we got not one, not two, not three, not four, but 5 improbable lucky breaks to create all those yards and points? A 4th down where a lucky bounce got a TD...a missed XP by Balt...a improbable fumble by Henry...Lamars cramps forcing them to punt...Kyle Hamilton pulling up a millisecond early preventing him from blocking the game winning FG - and a bonus for Balt mismanaging the timeouts and clock giving us more time for our 41 year old kicker off the couch to make the kick. You want to depend on all that every single week to mask 3 quarters of losing football? Or week 2 - you want to gloss over our first TD and half our yards on that opening drive should have never happened if not for multiple Jets penalties baliling us out? Or how the Jets defense ill timed penalties extended many drives that should have ended on our own poor execution, or how the Jets offense kept giving us the ball back through poor play or turnovers. So again, you can cite stats all you want, but that doesn't translate to the offense was humming. And 251 yards of offense came in just 1 quarter and was made possible thanks to several lucky and improbable breaks we cant count on. Again, NOT worried about the offense, but this notion that everything was great because of the final scores is just ignoring context to support a bias. And look, I think we are the best team in football, but the unbiased truth is the offense has had its own struggles in the first 2 weeks to work through still. And I do believe we will and will look our best of the season this week against Miami.

I get wher you are coming from, but you are also burying your head and ignoring context and facts because of the final scores a bit here too. Bills stalled out multiple times on the opening drive where we still got a TD but Jets mistakes undid our mistakes and gave us free points. You see a scoreboard adding 7, but the reality is without Jets shooting themselves in their own foot, we don't get 7 there. This is just one example. Ravens - we should have turned the ball over on downs, but on a 4th down throw that got deflected by our TE it found its way to Keon, otherwise we turn the ball over on downs to an offense we couldn't stop and we likely end the game with a multi score loss. But that lucky bounce also led to a fortunate fumble and a fortunate cramping to Lamar that led us to two more improbable scores that shouldn't have happened. So you can say "scoreboard" all you want -- and truthfully I am normally in that same camp, but when it comes to the offense playing well though. The reality is the offense was not clicking for 3 quarters week 1 and play calling was a big part of that. I cant tell you how many times I screamed at the screen over play calls those 3 quarters. And in week 2, the offense was not playing well either, but the Jets were playing worse and kept hurting themselves and giving us points off those mistakes. Again, I am NOT worried -- but this rant also does not reflect the reality of what is being discussed and that is the play calling has not been strong and execution has been inconsistent at times the first 2 weeks. Ravens game our offense was not capable of keeping up with the Ravens until we ran the 2 min offense for almost a whole quarter and then had multiple miracle breaks happen to help us score several times. The scoreboard against the Jets had more to do with how bad the Jets played on offense and how bad they were on defensive penalties than it had to do with how well the offense played. We have plenty of time to dial it in, and a game against the Fins is the perfect recipe to get into a groove as we usually cook them. But to also pretend the offense has been dominant or a well oiled machine through 2 weeks just because of final scores is not really doing an unbiased analysis of their play over 8 quarters of football.

Hawes has really impressed me. There are times he looks like a pro bowl OL out there as a TE. And he is catching passes while Knox is dropping passes. I think Knox could start on other teams, and I really like him and how he fits in with the team, locker room, and Josh. BUT - he is certainly expendable at this point with a better pass catcher in Kincaid and now a potentially elite blocker in Hawes who early on at the very least seems to be as capable of a pass catcher (or better) than Knox. I was always of the mindset that Knox is a guy whose contract and role makes him someone that could be moved on from this next offseason, and Hawes early on is upping the potential of that IMHO. Its also still only 2 games and Knox is beloved top to bottom by everyone on the team and in the organziation, so no lock we move on from him either. But Hawes keeps playing like this and improving, Beane will have some tough decisions next year.

I am not saying I disagree with you as I was never sold on Caleb and think Poles needed to go too. But, the roster Ben inherited has more talent on it, I mean the offensive talent on the starting 11 is miles better than the 11 starters McD trotted out in 2017. And even though I never expected the Bears to really be that much better personally, the expectations for Ben was to contend for the playoffs at the minimum and the expectations for McD year 1 was to contend for the #1 overall pick in 2018 draft. They have very very different expectations coming in from the public and masses for their first seasons as HC. Again, Ben inherits one of the best set of offensive weapons in the NFC where they are loaded at WR, TE, and have solid RB room with an ascending OL and a 2nd year QB who was just the #1 overall pick. McD inherited an inept offense with no talent anywhere but an aging RB and a rookie LT in Deion no one knew was going to be as good as he later turned out to be and most people thought the Bills were tanking for a QB in 2018.