Alphadawg7

That absolute worst mistake is to reach. Disagree. If there isn't a guy Beane thinks is a first round player there he shouldn't force the issue.

Disagree...not saying we are for sure better, but Diggs was a minor part of the offense second half the season and postseason. Our offense was fine and we went 6-1 to go from out of the playoffs to the 2 seed. If we draft a rookie that gels well with Allen early that can help command some attention, then I very much believe this offense can be better. You forget...yes we subtract Diggs...but we have Shakir entering now his 3rd year and poised for an even bigger role and we have Kincaid entering his 2nd season and taking on a bigger role, and Cook broke out last year and poised for a big role again. We are not devoid of talent, and the young talent now has a year or two of experience and will be better than they were last year. So net gain or loss with Diggs is not as extreme as people think. And I think Samuel is a valuable addition too. The key will be how much the rookie can contribute year 1...if he comes in and takes off right away I definitely think this is a better offense in 2024 than 2023.

100%

Wanna bet?

Beane again very clearly stated that if at 28 the first round graded WR's on their board are gone, they will take another position and take talent over reaching and look at the 2nd to potentially add a WR.

Diggs at his peak was a top 3 WR in the league and for a period the best deep ball WR in the NFL. I am not ready to annoit Shakir to that potential level yet, but, I do think Shakir has a very high ceiling and too many people are underestimating him. Personally, I think he more accurately compares in style to Kupp, and no surprise because he admittedly studies Kupp and has tried to pattern his game off him. But Kupp runs a 4.63 forty where Shakir is fast with a 4.43 forty time. So Shakir has more deep speed potential, however, Kupp has elite short area burst and speed which is why Kupp seems to play so much faster than his 40 time would lead you to believe. Not saying he will reach Kupp's level, but then again, no one thought Kupp would get to that level either until it happened. Personally, I think at the very least Shakir will be a very good WR2 who can move inside and out and is going to be a very good player for us and is the kind of guy Beane looks to resign in 2 years.

No on Higgins. I think he is better suited as a top end WR2, but he wants to be paid like a top end WR1.

I acknowledged that with Diggs, and said that would be the biggest loss. But I did counter that with how important hitting on the rookie WR will be because that rookie WR could take at least some of that attention Diggs got if he shows he can make an impact year 1 like Jefferson, Chase, Pakua, etc have done the last few years. So I don't disagree Diggs helps open things up, but we land say Thomas who is 6'3" and runs a 4.34 forty out there, he is gonna command some attention. And if he and Allen show early chemistry, that attention will increase as the season goes on. But also...the biggest benefit of spreading the ball around is to create mismatches and take advantage of what the D is giving you. And when you got guys like Kincaid, Shakir, and even Samuel who can move around in the offense, plus Cook out of the backfield, Allens threat to run, and whatever the Rookie WR is bringing to the table, then you don't "NEED" a Diggs to open up everything for you.

This is where I am at. Nothing that is known right now suggests it was so bad that Beane felt like he had to make this move and he certainly didn't get some kind of big offer he couldn't refuse. So feels like we might be in store for some details to leak out that there were some issues where they felt his presence this year on the team just didn't work anymore. Beane is very cap savvy, so just feels like something had to be in play for him to take this much dead cap on over 2 seasons. And its clear Beane believed Diggs would be here this year last year or he wouldn't have restructured him which made his contract so bad to trade. Something changed between then and now.

Trading up for the Bills in this version of the draft is irrelevant...the big 4 of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Thomas all went in first 12 picks and I can't imagine Beane really trading up into the top 12 to get a WR in such a rich WR draft. I think if Beane makes a relevant trade up it would be for one of those 4 guys and would not be any higher than the back half of the teens based on cost. Especially given the cap hits post Diggs trade this year and next, we can't afford to pay a ransom in draft capital to get one guy, we may need those picks to help fill spots due to other cap moves we may need to make to balance the Diggs dead cap space.

I will be the first to admit, I thought there was little chance Beane would trade Diggs before the draft unless one of 2 things happened: He either got a huge offer he couldn't refuse or something behind the scenes made Diggs an "addition by subtraction" situation, kind of like Beanes first year here where he moved Sammy for a 2nd right away and then we dumped Darius for a 6th rounder to just get him away from the team midseason. Well, we know we didn't get an "offer he couldn't refuse" given the overall compensation is pretty weak, especially for the cap hits we will take. So, seems like there was more going on behind the scenes where Beane felt we were better off as a team if he was not on the roster this year. So will be interesting to see what comes out after this, if anything. So where does that leave us as an offense with both Diggs and Davis, our top 2 WR's last 2 years, now gone? I am gonna say this right out the gate, I think that not only are we fine, but we might be an even better offense in 2024 than we were in 2023. Im no Diggs hater, but the reality is he commanded a lot of targets on a team that loves to spread the ball around. Looking back at last season, both Diggs and Davis were not more often than not barely showing up on the stat sheets during the back half of the season and playoffs. Yet this team went 6-1 during that span to win the division and the 2 seed and almost made the AFCCG. Our roster right now: We have an exciting nucleus of young talent on our offense today, even before the draft and with Diggs gone. The combination of Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook are an exciting trio of young weapons who broke out last year and look to have bright futures. Samuel is only 27 and here 3 years as well and is another quality weapon for this offense. Shakir - He put up 611 yards on just 39 targets last year which is incredible. That is an insane 13.5 yards per TARGET...not per catch, per target. And that came with a catch rate of like 87% catch rate. The guy made a lot of plays and was arguably our best WR down the stretch to obtain the 2 seed. @BADOLBILZasked me what I think he can be and I flat out said this kid is a 1000+ yard WR IMHO on a lot of teams this year but would never get that chance in Buffalo (and no one likely would) as long as Diggs is here because he commands too many targets and then there are a lot of other mouths to feed after Diggs when you look at who is on the roster and the expected addition of a high round rookie in this draft. But now, with Diggs gone, I do think we will see Shakir flirt with a 1000 yards and maybe exceed it here in Buffalo this season. There is still a lot of mouths to feed (Rookie, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook both running and recieving, etc) beyond Shakir, but I do think he will be Allens most trusted target this year and I will increase my prediction on him from pre-Diggs trade of 700-900 to now post Diggs trade of 900-1100 yards. Kincaid - Like Shakir, his role just got bigger in terms of available targets. How much bigger I think depends on how fast whatever rookie we take gels with Allen in the offense. If the rookie comes in and rips off say 1200+ yard season, then I think Kincaid probably finishes more in that 700-850 yard range. If the rookie is more of a 800-1100 rookie year, then I can see Kincaid hitting at least 800 yards and flirting with a 1000 potentially. Samuel - I don't think his role changes much to be honest. I think he is going to be a 700 yard type WR for us, a guy who is valuable but maybe his impact is more streaky. Not a knock on him, more about there is only one football to go around and he has less time and rapport with Allen right now, so I think Shakir and Kincaid will have a leg up on targets, especially early on. Impact on the draft: I honestly don't think this changes a whole lot for us in regards to the draft given its been very clear we were looking at WR early for a while now. However, the biggest impact now is maybe in Beane's comfort on how aggressive he may want to be to get a guy. With an extra 2nd rounder next year, he might feel more comfortable including our first next year if a guy he covets gets close enough where our first gets us there. The 2nd rounder next year itself doesn't get us a lot of movement in this draft but our first can get us into the teens. Best case scenario for Bills (if Beane intends to get up and get a guy) is that these 3 things happen ahead of us: A big QB run happens (Possible the first 4 picks could be QB's if AZ trades back with someone like Minny) Brock Bowers goes BEFORE one of the big 3 WR's (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze) Someone over drafts Xavier Worthy before one of the big 3 after falling in love with his 40 time If those 3 things happen, I think it is highly likely that one of either Nabers or Odunze fall into the back half of teens where using our first next year gets us into play for a move up to get one. If only 2 of those things happen, still possible. If the Big 3 go before the 15th pick, then I think Beane might consider moving up for Thomas, although I am not sold he would be willing to go as high to get Thomas as he would one of the other 3. Predictions on next year: I am actually quite excited to see more of Shakir, Kincaid and Cook next year to go along with a rookie and Samuel. I think our offense has the potential to be even better in 2024 as it already proved better once those guys got more involved last year. Diggs and the attention he commanded from the defense will be missed, but I think there are still plenty of weapons here and I think whatever rookie we bring combined with the talent of Allen will help command some of the attention Diggs was getting. I hate the cap hits...but I love the potential of what our young core and whatever rookie(s) we add to the fold can bring to this field as soon as this season.

While I don't disagree with you about spending that much to get a WR, especially in this draft, but there are quite a few big rookie WR seasons. Pakua last year for example, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, JaMarr Chase just to name a few recent ones...then you got guys like OBJ, Julio Jones, Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Keenan Allen, etc. But...again, still do not think trading our first and 2nd this year and a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd next year is worth doing for anything other than a premiere QB prospect. And I certainly would never spend that much to move up in a draft this rich at WR. I do however think it puts both Nabers and Odunze in play if one of them get into the mid teens with a QB run helping the cause. Best case scenario is if we see guys like Bowers at TE and then someone fall in love with Worthy's 40 time go before one of those 2 guys and we can get one of them into the back half of the teens. That is when I think Beane considers using next years first to go get the guy who fell there.

This. If he now uses that extra 2nd next year, or now feels like he can include our next years first given we have two 2nds now to go up and get someone like Odunze, Nabers, or even Thomas that will look a whole lot different than if we stay put at 28 and take another position then take a project WR like Legette in the 2nd. So I think until we see how this impacts this draft, its hard to grade. On the surface, it looks like weak value based on the kind of cap ramifications that came with it. But this could be a special draft for WR, and if gives Beane the room to go get one of the special prospects, then I think it significantly improves the grade.

Wonder who the target would be on a trade up...lots of assumptions its Thomas, but I can't help but wonder if its someone like Odunze or Nabers, which ever isn't the 2nd WR taken and gets into the teens potentially.

I thought if we traded him after June 1st people were saying his cap hit this year would be a lot less. That seemed to be what everyone was saying in the big Diggs thread.

Well at first thought, we got no picks in this draft. But if we wanted to be comfortable using next years assets to make a big move up, then I guess it makes some sense.

Its not the trade that is a surprise, I fully expected him to be traded next offseason. The surprise was to do it now instead of after June 1st to reduce the cap hits given we didn't get back a draft pick in this draft.

Actually, that is a good thought, I had not considered that when thinking about the draft ammo for this year. So yeah, actually this point makes a lot more sense. Still doesn't make me feel good about our comp in this trade weighed with the cap issues it comes with, but you made a very good point on how it might impact their mindset on being aggressive to go up for a WR.

Yeah, I know that. Just meant we gave up some trade ammo in this trade too to get back a marginal amount of trade ammo for this draft if that was the mindset.

Yeah, Beane will take that road...but someone always leaks something somewhere...so I think something is gonna come out to make this a bit clearer. I mean Beane just gave Diggs a big vote of confidence recently...Diggs recently said he hopes to stay here and retire a Bill...Josh has been talking up their relationship. So...just seems like there was more going on in the backend than we know and I have a feeling something will start coming out painting a fuller picture.

I mean I guess they could see it as more ammo to move up, but a 2nd next year is worth like a 3rd this year, so it doesn't give us that much more ammo to move up, and we lost 2 more picks too in the trade. So if that is the case, it really isn't moving the needle that much. In fact, I think I would rather have 2 second round picks next year then waste that chasing a rookie in what is a very deep WR draft.

Yeah, and I was saying all offseason I felt there was no way we would trade Diggs before the draft and take on that much dead cap hit unless something behind the scenes forced the issue. And thus far, nothing has come out that would qualify as significant enough to make this move. So it makes me wonder what we are going to find out now that Diggs has been moved. Seems like this had to be an "addition by subtraction" move in Beanes eyes to take on that dead cap and not even get a pick in this WR rich draft back. I mean he didn't even wait until after June 1st when the cap was less of a hit which would have made more business sense given we got no picks back in this draft. So I am really curious to what we are gonna hear that was going on behind the scenes that he had to make this move and take this weak compensation back.

Football wise...I am EXCITED about the roles of Shakir and Kincaid expanding. Management wise, I am puzzled why we didn't do this after June 1st and lessen the cap burden given we didn't get back any draft capital in this draft. I am actually not that concerned about the offense, I think we will still be an elite offense, I mean we were last year and went 6-1 with our WR1 and WR2 producing very little in that time last year. I just don't understand the timing if we didn't get a pick in this draft.

I don’t know, but hope that’s the case

Why would we not wait until after June 1st to lessen the blow if there was no picks we were getting in this draft? That makes no sense to me