Alphadawg7

I think what @Jauronimois saying that while that return was great, had they not paid cash he could have leveraged that cash and acquired multiple properties or diversified into other instruments to further maximize gains. Using your math you provided, lets assume he still put the full $190k into real estate here but instead did so with a mortgage instead of paying cash. What actually happened based on your post: Initial $190,000 investment to buy in cash - $660,000 in equitable gains (worth $850 now) plus $4K net rent average for 14 years adding $672,000 in rental income. Total return is $1.33M over 14 years. Which is obviously a fantastic transaction that no one will be upset with. Now, had he put say 10% down which is $19,000 he could have bought 10 like properties instead of 1 using the same amount of capital. $19,000 initial investment: Still $660,000 equitable gain. $171,000 mortgage at 6% (assuming no refi or additional payments to pay down balance) would 14 years later have a payoff balance left of $126,000 which would be an equitable principal gain for another $45,000. And given the fact you said he netted $4k on avg in rents, given the mortgage payment is only $1025 a month, we can deduct that $1025 mortgage payment from the $4000 net he averaged and get a new monthly net of $2975 for 14 years which is another $500,000 in rental income. Prop 1 - $19k investemnt: $660k increase in value + $45k in equitable gain from mortgage pay down +$500k in rental income = $1,205,000 compared to $1,330,000 total gain by paying all cash. Now multiply prop 1 by 10 like properties, and on the same $190,000 cash asset he had in 2010 he would have made over $12,000,000 dollars. That is the power of leverage, and it is why rich people still finance everything. But lets say 10 properties was too much exposure for him and wasn't comfortable at that risk level...he could have bought 5 and kept $95,000 in the bank or other investment instruments for rainy days and it he would have actually only invested $95k and netted over $6M in the same 14 years.

Well that stat gets so high because of how much production Allen provides with his legs, and that is part of his game. Now, I do think the Bills need to get to a place where we need Allen's legs less, and that IMO falls more on Allen himself and the OC. Allen needs to take what the D gives him more because if he did that he would need to scramble around with his legs less that lead to him taking off more and taking more hits. The OC needs to be better at motion with purpose and scheming guys open like Brady did more of when he took over for Dorsey last year. And with a real run game around Allen last year to build off of, hopefully that means we see more Davis runs being successful rather than needing to rely on Allen as a runner as much. This is fair and I think we all want that...but keep in mind, that is also who Josh Allen is. And no matter how much help you put around him, he is going to play like this. If we learned anything from Dorsey is that you shouldn't try and game anything out of Allen...let him play free out there. Which is why I think a big part of this will come down to how Brady does installing his own offense this year and giving Josh good early targets in his reads. I agree with what you are saying here, and we just don't know how it will play out as we have neither the real Brady led offense nor this group together on the field yet. But I do think the "point guard" term is being misused with him. That sounds like a game manager to me. I think its more about designing an offense that isn't married to a "scrip" like Dorsey was, that can adjust in game with how the defense is playing and what its giving to them. I think this group is capable of putting pressure on all 3 phases of the field and its more about Josh playing free within this group than just being a "point guard". I fully expect the offense to still be aggressive

Yeah, I do still think there is practically a 0% chance of a major WR trade before the season begins...unless the group looks really bad in camp/preseason or significant injury happens. Anything is possible though, what I love about Beane is he is aggressive and isn't afraid to go get what he wants. But I think he legitimately likes what we have, and I think any moves are highly unlikely without a change in circumstances prompting it. Especially with the contracts WR's have gotten this offseason. As far as the Diggs trade, I didn't imply or say it fell in his lap. But I also do not believe that Beane was trading Diggs "no matter what". He wasn't going to dump him for nothing. Beane said he gave Diggs and his team permission to see if they could find a trade that would make sense for the Bills. I think both Diggs and the Bills were also prepared to play together this season if a trade couldn't be worked out that Beane felt was the right value for the Bills. And that is why Diggs was saying he wants to stay a Bill, retire a Bill this offseason too.

While I get your point here, I also don't completely agree with it. The trade doesn't mean the gross manipulation of everything Diggs said was accurate and that every over the top character assassination off those twisted words were justified. Both can be true at the same time...that people over analyzed and twisted Diggs words OFTEN and Beane and the Bills were able to put a trade together that made sense for all parties. In 2023, Diggs was a captian, they didn't make him a captain because he was a terrible teammate. So just because the trade happened doesn't validate the extremes people were taking on every interview he gave. Regardless of the outcome, there were many over the top takes on the "drama" of something Diggs said. And if you want to know my opinion on Diggs the player today...I still think he is misunderstood by a lot of people around here and hated for the wrong reasons. IMHO Diggs biggest issue with him became his loss in faith that the Bills could get over the hump before his career ended, especially facing a lot of changes thanks to cap issues coming this year.

No, what I got upset about was people trashing and dragging Diggs for every little thing he said and twisted it to mean all kinds of negative things that were literally not at all what he said. And I still stand by that. I also repeatedly said that if Diggs does become an issue or things escalate behind the scenes then they were going to have to trade him. I took the stance of waiting until something real came out rather than using crack jack decoder rings to twist words into negative narratives because some people just didn't like him.

Yeah, I thought it was 0% when the cap hit numbers were wildly misunderstood around here. To be fair to Beane, I do not believe he ever intended last offseason to be looking at replacing both Diggs and Davis at the same time. He drafted Kincaid knowing we needed new young weapons with Davis likely not being brought back. And if we had Diggs, Keon, Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel everyone would be pretty stoked with that group. But, the Diggs situation produced a trade he couldn't turn down, getting the cap hit over with now and netting a 2nd round pick back was quite a bit for a WR with a rep who was on the wrong side of 30. And with the emergence of Shakir and Kincaid last year, I think it made him more comfortable just making the move now, especially since we are already going young on the other side of the ball too. Beane knows he doesn't have the $31m dead cap hit on Diggs next year and he won't have Vons contract either. Plus he has 2 second round picks and 2 fourth round picks. Next year Beane has both cap space and extra premium draft picks to make what ever moves the team needs, so if the weapons prove to be too light, I have no doubt he will again be aggressive on getting more weapons here. Remember, in the last 3 drafts, Beane has used 4 of our 6 picks in the first 2 rounds on offense. He is being aggressive to build around Josh and that was mostly done under the belief Diggs would still be here too.

Well to be fair, when Daboll was here people all over were yelling that Allen needed more run game support and OL. It was more about that than receiving weapons. And as far as Davis goes, no disrespect, but Davis earned the right to be considered the WR2, and that is coming from me who has been hyper critical of Davis the past 2 seasons. But he put up 13 TD's in his first 2 seasons as a part time young player. In 2021, we had Sanders and that team had its own offensive struggles mid season and it wasn't until Sanders got hurt that it became obvious the offense flowed better with Davis on the field than Sanders. Then this offense went off in the playoffs including 9 TD's by Allen in 2 games where Davis had 4 of them against KC. There was every reason to for the Bills staff and FO to feel like Davis could step up into the WR2 role full time, it wasn't just given to him by default. When Sanders left, he also gushed over Davis and said he was a stud and built different. So its not like they just threw some strugging player into that role. In 2022, Davis dissapointed and didn't prove to be consistent enough, but battled a lower leg injury all year. Heading into the draft, Bills were high on Addison and Kincaid and wound up getting Kincaid. Beane was preparing for Davis to leave but his potential repalcement was drafted before we could get him, so he went and got what was seen as the best offensive weapon still in the draft at that point in Kincaid. They also extended Diggs meaning they did not anticipate back then to trade Diggs this year. Now they invested their first pick in another WR, but had they not had to trade Diggs, we would have Diggs, Keon, Kincaid, and Shakir as a young unit with a top 10 vet WR which would be an excellent combo of top end talent and young talent. Beane has invested 3 of his last 5 top draft picks into a recieving weapon. He has also drafted OL and RB help in round 2 the past 2 seasons too, all to increase talent around Josh. And those moves have led to the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league, and thats with us losing out on the points from the Bengals game that got cancelled because of Damar. Thats with 3 OC's in 3 years. So, the real issue here is that I don't think Beane intended having to replace both Diggs and Davis in the same season. But, he went out and got a solid WR in Samuels to help with that transition, Shakir has emerged, and we just drafted a very promising rookie to go with the excellent rookie we landed in Kincaid last year. We got depth behind those guys and now have a 1200 yard RB with another young promising rookie RB. We still have Allen and what should be a very good OL. For me, it hasn't been as dire as some paint it, and it doesn't look as dire as some make it seem now, not at least until we see how this group plays together on the field and what a real Brady offense looks like this year.

I battled the people who were making false narratives off Diggs quotes to make any and everything he did or said negative. And yes, I initially thought it was impossible because I got wrong information on here from other posters about the cap hits being nearly $60m over 2 years and with our cap that seemed unsurmountable. Once I found that was incorrect and that the cap hit was only $3m more this year than what he was making, I said it was totally possible, but still felt like next year made more sense unless things got worse behind the scenes and said that MANY times on this board. Even FireChans thought Diggs wouldn't get traded until next year.

So Diggs didn't have well over 1000 yards? Cook didn't rush for 1200 yards with 50 receptions? Davis didn't score any of those TD's? Kincaid didn't catch over 70 balls as a rookie? So the entire offense and all those receptions and passing yards were all Josh, had nothing to do with the guys catching them? Got it. No offense, but I can't stand this gross exaggeration argument people make that it was "ALL" just Allen. I watched many of his weapons make sensational plays to bail Josh out, or take short plays and turn them into TD's for Allen. Can Allen get more help...sure, every QB can. To say it was only Allen is so over the top. A guy who had a top 3 to top 5 WR the past 4 years, something most teams don't.

If you followed my posting career I think you will see I am not going to cling to my priors either and I also don't make conclusive statements about things we have never seen, like this offense. And even now, I am not saying the offense will be great...I believe in this group today, but make no mistake it's totally unproven both in personnel and Brady. So if they struggle, I will want the changes to address the areas we are struggling as much as anyone. I asked you because you tend to talk about the Bills weapons the past 4 years like it mirrored something like the Pats last year. Allen has had a better group around him than people give him credit for, and I think its a bit of an over exaggeration to say its all him. I do agree that Allen needs more from his top guys in the playoffs where Diggs for example just never had a good postseason.

Here you go again...this is as stupid of an exercise as declaring who won the offseason on paper or who had the best draft a day after the draft. The TRUTH is, that YOU have no idea how good or bad our group is...YOU have never seen them on the field together with Allen in this offense, and one has never taken a single snap because he is a rookie. And when I say YOU...it means all of us, but I am highlighting you because you are foolish enough to make conclusive declarations NOW before you have seen the product. Its fine to be concerned or doubt it, but you like to say it's bad before knowing if it is or isn't and a LOT of people do NOT share your negative opinion, including a lot of analysis who think this group is pretty exciting.

I have an honest question here for you: If Allen has a great season, maybe his best season, maybe even an MVP season...are you going to look at it as it was all Allen and he dragged this roster along with him...or will it be because he had a better cast that was better utilized around him? Well we traded one away...one is a rookie, and one is a 2nd year player. Does NOT change the investment Beane made, and you only make it sound bad because you refuse to even acknowledge Kincaid and you didn't like the Keon pick. Truth is, we don't know how good or bad this room is until we see it on the field...you on the other hand have already made concrete conclusions and statements about how "bad" it is.

He likes to cherry pick things to make false conclusions that support his negative bias. Of course Diggs and Kincaid count...but he won't acknowledge that because if he does it means the Bills have used their FIRST pick in the draft on a weapon for Josh in 3 of the past 5 drafts. He will do anything to not have to admit that.

Rookie QB contracts cause teams to make dumb decisions. I think within the next 5 years when the evidence is overwhelming that paying this much for a WR becomes more of an anchor on the team than creating SB winners that we will see WR contract sizes regress much like we saw with RB's. Not saying to as low as RB's are, but I think they will come back down closer to mid 20's as the top of the market at some point.

This is your original post above I responded to. You gave the example of $330,000 into the Index Fund and said it would be worth $1.32m today and then you compared that to owning ONE home in the example I provided...which was an oversight mistake because the player did NOT invest $330,000 into the home, they invested $30,000 on the down payment only. So that led to you incorrectly comparing a 20 year return on a single $30,000 real estate investment to the 20 year return on 11 times more starting money at $330,000 in an index fund. NOTE: I made my own oversight mistake in my previous response and provided the math on if he did 20 properties because I had just done the math on that and mistakenly was thinking of that. So the correct comparison if they had invested $330,000 into the real estate under the same parameters of the first transaction ($330,000 home, $30k down) then they would have actually acquired 11 homes and after 20 years his initial $330,000 would now be $7.27 million dollars which is nearly 6 times the value your index fund returned. $330,000 into each and your fund gets $1.32m and the real estate gets you $7.27m...I don't know anyone who would prefer to take $1.32 million over $7.27 million. That is a 568% better return on investment. And the real estate investment would include rental income on 11 properties every month for life, and once the properties are owned free and clear, owning 11 homes in the $800k range could easily average $4k a month in rental income (I know because my wife and I looking at places across 4 states right now to both buy and rent). So they would be looking at $528,000 a year in income for the rest of their lives, which will grow as rents rise over time and grow if they increase their property holdings. That means in the first 2.5 to 3 years they would net (rents minus impounds) about what your fund did in 20 years. Even if you lower the rental expectations to $3k that is still $400,000 a year so in 3.5 to 4 years they would net about what your fund did in 20 years still. And this doesn't factor in future equitable gains. No disrespect, but I have said this many times now...I have NEVER once suggested to over leverage oneself and have repeatedly said 2 things: NEVER over leverage and that they should DIVERSIFY and do BOTH (Caps are not to yell...just highlight). Once again, this is a multi-millionaire athlete, investing $330,000 into real estate comes no where close over leveraging said player. My aunt literally did this exact same thing while making $150,000 a year and has 12 properties (11 SFR houses and 1 small 4 unit strip mall) and a 13th bonus vacation cabin on Lake Tahoe and is retired and living on the rents making nearly $40,000 a month for life on those rents as she used surplus along the way to pay the mortgages down. So I 100% agree to NEVER over leverage, but this is not a scenario where this specific player is over leveraged by any means, not even close. And the reason its hard for a lot of people to understand this is because the rents are the LEAST important factor and the only role they play is determining if said person can afford to do this or not...and by afford, that means they can handle holding costs during vacancies, unexpected repairs, etc. The value of someone else paying your mortgage off combined with historical equitable gains is where you make your money. You don't even need to break even on the rents for the holding to have huge returns on a long term scale. Its all good, been a fun convo...its not like investing in a fund is a bad thing, I think they should do both. But for me, Funds value is in providing safe avenues to preserve money and still get some decent growth out of it. Long term Real Estate is where I put my money to grow wealth and retirement income.

Ha...well I joined in midway when the convo seemed to go index funds vs real estate. And my main comment is that real estate should out pace the fund and its good to do both...and then those comments took off lol. The nature of of a message board though, was interesting none the less.

I had Davis as my 3rd best RB in the draft on my board and felt like he wasn't just a piece to compliment Cook, he was a guy who could take over at some point too. So I would think Beane saw some of the same things in him. The real question for me is if Davis and Cook become more of a 50/50 tandem and Cook doesn't command an egregious amount as a FA and prefers to stay on a home town discount. 2 important things is that we don't have a top heavy WR1 contract now and Von's deal will be gone. So we would have the cap flexibility to retain Cook of the deal was reasonable. If I had to put money on it now though, I would say that Cook probably doesn't get the 2nd contract here. Which also makes me wonder if Beane tries to trade Cook a year early if Davis comes in and has a strong rookie year.

Oh yeah, and it's the main reason why him and Shaq clashed and eventually split.

I get that...but when you are NFL player you don't need immediate returns and cash flow as its not your income. So applying the power of leverage for long term gains becomes substantially more valuable to them. But hey, even if they did pay cash for the property, it would still be a great move for them.

No disrespect, as a Laker fan, Kobe is maybe my favorite player all-time in the NBA. Of course Kobe had talent...what I said is what Kobe himself said many times during his career...which was that hard work beats talent. And that was his mindset his whole career leading up to and in the NBA. He never felt he was the most talented player, but he knew he was the hardest working player and that no one was going to out work him at becoming the best. I think you misread what I wrote because you seem to have more the impression it meant he had no talent and only got there on hard work...but that wasn't what I wrote.

Bills might be facing a tough decision heading into 2025 if Cook has another good year this year. Cook will be on the final year of his deal in 2025...so do you think if he keeps playing at a high level they commit to him with an extension or do you think they avoid having an expensive RB and either try and trade him or just let him walk in FA?

I think I would phrase it different… They hit a grand slam with Allen and I would say they have several home runs on the roster too. I think the thing is more they haven’t hit another grand slam, drafting that elite impact player that is one of the best players on their side of the ball in the league. Kincaid though has the potential to be (I won’t include anyone from this draft class since they haven’t taken a snap yet). There are a lot of guys I would say fall into the triples or home run category on the roster between their on field performance vs draft slots. Taron for example is a home run IMHO.

I never changed the topic because I never commented to you or things you said. I joined a side convo where there was discussion of real estate vs index funds on why I think people should do both. Then you decided to start commenting at me under your previous context even though none of my posts were directed at you or what you had previously proposed. But since you brought it back to your original thoughts, technically all I’m discussing is really a 3rd option where a player does both…rent and buy. Now it’s ok that you don’t agree with me on the 3rd option, but my part of this convo was never directed at you or your original comments. But given you have brought the two discussions together multiple times now, I will say it’s not only a viable 3rd option to your original 2, but also a great option to both preserve and grow newfound wealth for these rookies. For example, If Chris gamble would have done it 20 years ago as the 28th pick in the 2004 draft, his assets and portfolio would be almost double the gross value (even before agents and taxes) of his entire 5 year rookie contract today with permanent significant monthly income for life. So feel free to dismiss it or disagree with it, that’s fine, but doesn’t change the fact that a young player getting early assets as a rookie into long term holdings could literally set him up for life after football. And as an investment property, it doesn’t have to be KC, it can be anywhere they feel best about.

I don’t know, it’s not 20 years later. And when it’s an investment property you can buy anywhere, not just KC.

It takes more than physical traits to make it in the NFL. This isn’t the kind of start you want to see from your first round WR if I am KC. Keon is not only physically gifted, he has all those other qualities that you can’t teach…those qualities you need to be great. Kobe Bryant knew he wasn’t the most talented player coming into the NBA, so he made up for that by out working everyone else to become the best. From what we have seen and heard from Keon, I feel like he’s got that kind of drive and mindset where it’s not about flash and bling…it’s all football all the time for this kid. What kind of potential and what he becomes in the NFL is yet to be known…but what I do know I am confident in is that Keon will reach what ever his potential is, because he will put in the work to make sure he does. Keon is the kind of prospect I always want and root for.