Alphadawg7

You think the level of competition may have had something to do with that given Brady took over during the toughest part of our schedule? The lack of context people consider when they make these statements about the numbers under Brady just surprises me. I mean the eyeball test alone could see the offense was better by a long shot over this stretch of games compared to the first 10 weeks. But "numbers" are also impacted by the fact we played the following under Brady's 7 regular season games: In 7 games Bills Played: Five out of the 7 games were against top 10 defenses (including 3 in the top 5) and 4 of the 7 games were against playoff teams. The only teams not in the top 10 in defense ere Eagles (a playoff team and tough opponent) and the Chargers (a team that was fired up being first game with new coach after firing Staley). So...anyone wanting to remove all context and go back and look at the offense or Allens "numbers" only during: 1 - The toughest part of a seasons schedule vs entire previous seasons and 2 - The back end of the season in worse weather than the first 10 games...and then compare those numbers to whole seasons that include the easier batches of games (and easier overall schedules in past seasons) with better weather too is just a poor way to analyze the numbers and delivers inaccurate conclusions about said numbers. To say it was maybe his worst on that small sample size...a sample where we rose from the ashes and won 6 out of 7 of those games with a team that had been losing to teams like Jets, Denver, Pats, Burrow-less Bengals, and a not very good Jags team (with should be losses to Giants and Bucs too)...is just looking at it completely wrong IMHO. And further context: Not only was it the hardest portion of our schedule and during the part of the year with worse weather conditions...but there is also the fact that Brady was having to coach out of another coordinators playbook and still find ways to adjust it and doing so on the fly given he took over after 10 games to boot. Yet...Brady led offense with Allen went 6-1...Division Champs...#2 seed after this team was being declared dead in week 10 at 5-5 after losing to a bad Broncos team that gave up 70 points in a single game last year.

Don't you dare provide context...theres no room for context when people can just blindly rant or complain and cherry pick stuff to try and prove a false point HA Its a complete joke for anyone to try and act like anything was worse under Brady than Dorsey. Brady was beating playoff teams, including the Super Bowl Champs, while Dorsey was losing to teams like Zach Wilson led Jets and a Broncos team who gave up 70 points in a single game. And quite honestly, Dorsey should have been 3-7 instead of 5-5 but Daboll bailed him out by doing his best Daboll impression to cost the Giants the game on the goalline and then we also lucked out in the Bucs game where we should have lost on the final play too but got lucky. Dorsey had the softest and easiest part of our schedule just to have us well out of the playoffs and sitting at 5-5 with only really 3 good games out of 10. Brady came in made an immediate impact, so much so, it had Allen screaming "I'm Back!" on the sideline that first game. Brady in 7 games (which we went 6-1) faced FIVE top 10 defenses and 4 playoff teams. Dorsey lost to a bunch of bad teams and nearly lost to Giants and Bucs too to be lucky to have a 5-5 record instead of a 3-7 record.

I think as a whole, it was his best group 11 vs 11 comparison he has had in his career. The biggest issue was the OC...going from one who had no idea how to use his personnel, use movement, break from script, adjust, be less predictable, or run the ball...to a guy better in all those areas but taking over 10 games in and having to do so with the predecessors offense in a can't lose any more games position.

Again, I said the offense as a whole...its funny to me how hard you are trying to steer away from that. But, if I get time, maybe I will start that thread.

But is it really hypocritical? To me it would only be hypocritical if the NFL was putting out statements that Gambling in general is bad and that no one should gamble in general. But the NFL is not condemning gambling in general, it's a big part of all sports. What the NFL is saying to players by banning them from gambling is really that you can't CHEAT...its not really about gambling...it has to do with violating the integrity of the game through cheating and manipulation of the outcomes or scores. The real issue is built around players, refs, etc cheating on games, or just as bad, being perceived to be cheating just on the fact they gamble on the games even if they aren't actually impacting the games they are betting on. Perception to be is almost as damaging to the trust in the game as actually really cheating. So I don't find the strict policies against players gambling vs allowing gambling sponsorship as hypocritical because the NFL stance isn't anti-gambling...its anti-cheating.

I agree about Beasley and also about the offense this year, in fact, its what I have been saying for a while now is the plan because its what Beane has been echoing as well on how and why he is building this WR room this way. I felt like Shakir could really break 1000 yards this year right after the Diggs trade. But with how balanced the WR room is, and more importantly, how deep it is now...it might be hard for any WR to break a 1000 yards in this spread the ball offense and we could see 4 guys come in between 700-1000 yards in Kincaid, Keon, Shakir, and Samuel plus still get 80-100 targets to RB's and some decent production from guys like Knox/Hollins/Claypool/MVS.

@HoofHearted you never gave your own response to this...said you were going to later, but just reminding you that you still haven't as the next QOD has arrived Im curious to your thoughts on this too

I don't think the sponsorship impacts or tempts players to gamble any more than if they didn't exist. Like I doubt there is any player in the league that walks into a stadium and sees a casinos sponsorship and goes..."Oh, guess it's cool to gamble on my own games now". Like they either do it or they don't do it. The ease of access to gambling for players is there regardless if the NFL allows sponsorships or not. Apps and tech are what make the gambling tempting or easy, not NFL sponsorships. I mean its not like players only know who FanDuel or DraftKings are because they saw it in an sponsorship within the NFL...those are practically house hold names whether you gamble or don't because the marketing is everywhere. So the only risk would be if the NFL "looks" hypocritical if a player violates the gambling rules using a platform that has or is spending money as a sponsor in the NFL. But make no mistake about it, the fact they are a sponsor had nothing to do with the stupidity or gumptions of said player to violate the gambling rules for players.

I think 33% cap on outside routes is fair estimate...he doesn't have to live outside, but he is capable enough to move him around like Samuel too to keep movement and defenses on their toes. I do think he is definitely capable of more targets per game than 4-5...but also this group is deep, and there is only one ball to go around, so I think 5-6 is probably where he falls and there could be some games where he doesn't get many and others where he gets more. I fully expect the offense to adapt weekly to what is being given to them and the targets will reflect that. One week a team may be struggling to cover Keon who goes off...the next week, maybe its Kincaid just exploiting something in the defense...another week might be Shakir having the big game...another week Cook and Davis go off and we throw a lot less. My guess is by seasons end Shakir probably ends up around 90 targets which would be 5.3 per game so just a hair above your range. And there in lies the beauty in what Beane is building in this room...a team that does not need one guy to go out and get 80-120 yards every week...but a group where any one guy could put up a week like each and every week and there isn't one player for the D to key on to disrupt the offense. Take away Keon and Kincaid or Shakir is going to burn you. Take away Kincaid, and Keon and Shakir are there to hurt you. Put a good plan to slow down the pass attack and Allen, Cook, and Davis might maul you on the ground. We may not have one guy who will put up a 1400 yard season this year, but we could have 4 guys who finish somewhere between 700-1000 yards and that is harder to defend than the one guy. Heck, its possible Keon, Kincaid, and Shakir all flirt with 1000 yards this year with Samuel still putting up 600-700 yards himself while the team still rushes for well over 2000 yards.

Im even more vested in the offseason now that we are good. Every little bit matters now, especially when we are talking about how coming up short has come down to so often of just not making one or two more plays.

Is Hollins capable of having a hell of a year: Yes, he did it with Carr in Oakland. But will he here this year: Doubtful. The reason: Target counts. There are only so many balls to go around. Bills had 545 targets last year with Diggs getting 160. Keon, Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, and the RB's will eat up enough targets that will probably only leave about 80 to 100 targets at most for the group of Knox, Hollins, Claypool, and MVS. I like the Hollins addition, and I think he has a great chance to me the roster based on his blocking and ST ability and he isn't a "throw away" at WR like say Kumerow was. But I do think he might have more of that Kumerow role where he is primarily a ST guy or comes in on bigger packages rather than be a guy who puts up a statistical season here that would qualify as a "hell of a year" unless injuries created opportunities for him.

I don't really understand your question here. What do you mean "how did he learn anything from that?"...He literally said he has learned from his struggles, from listening, taking notes, preparing the right way. That is the best way to learn, by doing all the right things. Year 1 it was no secret that he needed to work on zone coverage to fit in here. Year 2, its not like he got beat out by a scrub, Benford had an excellent camp and preseason and just won the job being more ready to play our style of defense. Elam then also battled some injuries as well. But along the way over those 2 years, Elam got some spots to start thanks to injuries and made some very promising plays including big interceptions in big moments. There is so much more to it than just taking notes and listening. Not sure if you ever played competitive sports, but so much of what a CB does relies on muscle memory and instincts. You are asking this kid to change all of that...all the muscle memory and instincts in his style of play to fit better into how they want to play him in this defense. That is no small task, and those things a probably most important for a CB than any other position in the NFL because they are always playing a major disadvantage on every snap as they don't know where the WR or play is going and need to have instant reflex and reactions to make sure they can be in the right place to defend the play at the right moment...and do so without violating all the rules that are heavily skewed to protect the offense, the QB, and the WR. Its not a silly excuse and it definitely has truth to it...McD, like any coaching staff, prefers to not force a rookie in there if its not necessary and there are guys ahead of him more ready to play. He isn't afraid to start a rookie, but if he doesn't have to he won't rush them in there. Which is why I am not sold Bishop starts week 1 at Safety because he has vets capable of starting in Edwards and Rapp, not to mention Hyde might play again this year here still. So he doesn't need to put Bishop out there unless Bishop just flat out and convincingly wins one of the jobs. There is one thing I know and that is that this staff can find and coach defensive backs and get them playing at their best. Elam was different though as his style was different than what we run here, but they felt he had the talent and commitment to get to where they needed him to be which is why they took him and still have him here. And like you said and I also mentioned above, he has flashed potential when he got opportunities on the field. And I have no doubt he will very much be in a camp battle again with Benford to start opposite Rasul. But what I love about Beane and McD is they don't care at all about draft pick status when it comes to who is on the field to play. Some GM's are more worried about how it looks and demand the high pick play...here, its all about legit competition and aren't afraid to play a guy who was a lower pick over even a first round pick if they feel it makes the team better. I get why you have checked out, but I personally have not written him off and I am actually quite excited to see how he battles with Benford this year. But nothing will be handed to hims, so if he can't find himself a role this year, then I think he probably gets traded this offseason...we are probably too thin to trade him before then I suspect.

Shakir is capable of a lot more than Cole was though who was really one note kind of WR. He was a short area specialist...Shakir is faster, bigger, stronger, and much better YAC and can attack the defense in all 3 phases of the game. And he can do that out of the slot or being moved around. So I think you limit the value of Shakir if you try and replicate Cole.

bahahaha that made me LOL...more like Dawg/Dog discussion, but still was funny AF

I mean I have literally stated in every post now that the offense is more than just the receivers. But you are just manipulating information now, and you are know that. We threw for more yards in 2020 than 2023 because we didn't run the ball in 2020 nearly as much as 2023. So you are saying the top 5 guys averaged more because it was a Daboll pass first offense with a top heavy pass attack (especially to Diggs) in 2020 compared to a more balanced and spread the ball around attack and the utilization of a TE as the 2nd top targeted player in 2023. But you are just trying to isolate and cherry pick random stats that are about offensive philosophy between different OCs than overall offensive talent without any context to the data being applied. Daboll's style of offense was very different than the style of 2023. Maybe you like his style better, but that doesn't mean the talent level of the players was better overall as an offense. There are 5 guys that make up an OL...not 2 and PFF rating system is worthless. Besides, I don't care which year had the best individual...I am talking the best unit as a whole, which includes run blocking and pass blocking. And we all know PFF grades mean very little. Huh? What are you even talking about here? We are comparing one season to one season...not future projected seasons. So how does any of this matter in a one to one discussion? I have presented to you that I think the offense in 2023 was a better group as a whole than 2021...in which you then switched to 2020 when you saw the receivers were less impressive in 2021 than 2020...but now you keep responding with this one guy was better than this one guy when there are 11 guys on the field. Or this one stat without any context means this or that. So we will just have to agree to disagree on this one. Which is fine, it’s not like there is a huge discrepancy in talent one way or the other between 2020 and 2023 anyway, it’s more opinion than anything.

I think you will see more of what we saw last year once Brady took over, with an uptick in target volume in which I expect his 45 targets will rise somewhere between 85-110 targets. I think Shakir will be either 2nd or 3rd in targets on the team this year just depending on how many targets end up with Keon and Kincaid. Personally, I think Kincaid is going to probably lead the team in targets. They are going to move Shakir around inside and out and put him positions to utilize his excellent YAC ability similar to how SF does with Deebo (minus all the rush carries). I think Allen and the staff have a lot trust in him, and he is the only WR with any experience with Allen giving him a leg up on trust and timing with Allen. However...as I say that, there is an interesting scenario developing here with the guys behind those 3 above, and that is all 3 of Samuel, Hollins and Claypool are making early big impressions on all the coaches and Allen. That 4th option in the passing game (that isn't a RB) typically doesn't put up a lot of production unless injuries have helped elevate someone's production like Davis in his first 2 seasons. 2023 - Harty - 15 rec, 150 yds 2022 - Shakir - 10 rec, 161 yds 2021 - Davis - 35 rec, 549 yds (but Davis was not your typical WR4, he was backing up Sanders who got hurt which is where Davis production really came in once he got starters targets with Sanders out and then more shared WR2 role with Sanders when he got back as the offense was playing better with Davis than Sanders). If you look at the person who was more the WR4 role it was McKenzie who put up 20 rec, 178 yds. 2020 - Davis - 35 rec, 599 yds (but again, Davis only got this much production because John Brown missed a lot of games, he wasn't getting this production as a WR4 which again was more McKenzie who put up 30 rec, 282 yds). Now we know Samuel is going to get a decent amount of targets too, especially after paying him and signing him 3 years, not to mention nothing but positive buzz and confidence in him has been coming out. But what happens if Hollins or especially Claypool continue to impress and make a case to be more involved in the offense? Where are all the targets going to come from? Bills had 545 total targets last year with Diggs taking up 160 of them. We know that Keon (who will start at the X) will get a decent amount of targets this year. It won't be Diggs like, but he should be somewhere between 75 and 100 targets himself. Kincaid saw 91 targets last year, safe to say he probably sees an increase, so I would guess 100-110 targets. Those 2 alone are probably close to or just over 200 targets, so lets just call it 200 targets. Shakir probably sees 85-100+ targets, so lets call that 90 targets. Last year, Cook got 54 of the 86 targets that went to RB's last year...I think with the addition of Davis and bringing Ty back, we might see that total target share jump to 100 for the RB room. So that would be 190 targets between Shakir and the RB's. This leaves us 155 targets to spread out to Samuel, and guys like Knox, Hollins, Claypool, and MVS of which at least 2 of those WR's are making this roster, possibly all 3. If you figure Samuel gets 75 of them, that leaves 80 targets for guys like Knox, Hollins, Claypool, and MVS. Which would make sense...unless someone like Claypool or Hollins impresses enough to be a bigger part of the offense. I mean Claypool has the talent to start here if he can get his head right. I love Shakir, and think he will be an excellent part of our offense this year. But, I do think Hollins and Claypool are wildcards where if one of them continues to impress could carve out a bigger role than what we have typically seen deeper on our WR depth chart in a true rotational spread the ball around system. And if one of them does, it will be interesting to see how the targets shift around amongst Keon, Kincaid, Shakir and the RB's to account for it. Funny, working on this post just made me amped to see this squad out there. We may not be "top heavy" with a proven elite WR at the moment, but we are very deep with playmakers and quality. I think Allen might have the most fun of his career this year throwing to this group.

Yeah same for me. Weirdly, Houston’s schedule looks pretty easy this year too. So I think they will still have a good record this year, but it will be how they look against teams like Buf, KC, Balt, etc that will tell us where they really are at. Miami had a good record too, but just didn’t look the same against better competition. So I need to see Houston and all this money they spent show up and be impressive against the better competition before I start worrying about them. It can be if they start getting frustrated they aren’t getting the ball enough.

Well I do agree that Allen rushing that much is not ideal. But I also felt they tried to neuter Allen prior to that which I think is even worse. They need to let Allen be Allen, and the mere threat of his running makes defense have to play him different. So you want the threat to still be real while also keeping him from avg 9 carries a game. Remember, Brady was working out of Dorsey’s offense, so let’s see what he does this year with Allen and the array of weapons on this offense. I don’t think Allen will be running as much, but I also think they restrict Allen from instinctively taking off the way it felt under Dorsey.

Are we just going to ignore we went from a long way from the playoffs at 5-5 with losses to losers like the Jets, Broncos, etc...to winning the division and the #2 seed? The only stat I care about is the Win column. Wait...you think he meant we are trying to copy their failures? Was that your real response to him? Lol.

Good reply, here are my thoughts: I dont think its that I expect more from Keon than you do to be honest, I think its more that I don't think a 1300-1400+ yard WR1 is as critical as you do. I think a diverse WR core who are smart, have reliable hands, are tough, and can run good routes is also a dangerous WR room. Based on things you have said now and in the past, I feel like you define a WR1 more by season totals instead of their actual role on the field. For example, when I say Keon is our WR1 and will play that role this year, I am not saying I expect him to put up 1300+ yards this year as a rookie. He can be a WR1 and still put up 900 to 1100 yards this year and be very effective in his role. This team is being built not to lean on one guy like it did Diggs and when Diggs was taken out the offense struggled. Its being built so that any guy out there can make the play on any given play and you can't just key on one guy to shut this offense down like in years past. Do I think Keon has 1300+ yard potential...yes I do. But I am not expecting him to this season as a rookie, nor do I think we need him to. I won't knock McConkey, I think he is a very good prospect and has a bright future and would have been excited if we drafted him too. But I think Keon's unique size, catch radius, and rare athleticism for his size was just a better fit for our group. We needed someone who can be open even when not open, who is a dawg, and give Allen a big reliable target, especially in the cold weather games and playoff games. Gotcha...well the money is actually going somewhere, and it is WR as we have a $31M cap hit for Diggs this year. So for me, I think Beane is going to see how this group does this year, how Keon plays, and then reassess next season. If this season shows we need to address WR with a big move, then next year Beane will have the cap flexibility and ammo to do so if he feels that is what is best for the team.

Well my original response was to you saying since 2021...so feels like you swapped to 2020 when you realized Cole and the rest of the WR's not named Diggs didn't do a whole lot. But overalll, I still say the 2023 offense is better than any year of Allens career in terms of overall talent because there is MORE than receivers on offense. 2020 Diggs vs 2023 Diggs 2020 Diggs may be the best player Allen has played with, but the 2023 team still had Diggs as I said, and his demise is greatly exaggerated when the reality is the change in the OC from Daboll to Dorsey/Brady is substantially more impactful on the different level of production for Diggs as the whole offensive philosophy was different. So Diggs vs Diggs has a slim difference at best. 2nd option: 2020 Cole Beasley vs 2023 Dalton Kincaid Kincaid put up 81 catches as a rookie to Coles 82...so not a huge difference, but Cole had more yards, so he gets the edge over Kincaid, but its not like its a massive difference. 3rd option: 2020 Gabe Davis vs 2023 Gabe Davis Now you have Davis vs Davis...I think everyone understands a WR in year 4 is a better player than when he was a rookie...and Davis had more yards and catches in 2023 than he did as WR3 in 2020, so edge to 2023 Davis. 4th option: 2020 John Brown vs 2023 Khalil Shakir Shakir had the superior season, not to mention Shakir had more catches and yards on almost 20 less targets than even Gabe Davis did in 2020, who was the 3rd option in that offense. And considering Cook had more targets than Shakir, he was technically the 5th option from a targets count perspective, and still put up more rec and yards than Davis did in 2020. John Brown only played 9 games and didn't produce like he did in previous years when he did play. And the reality is that Shakir actually led the team in receiving and was the only guy to put up 100 yard game (twice) once Brady became the OC. Had Brady been the OC the whole season and used Shakir the same, his season would have eclipsed Cole Beasley's too. But then there is the OL which 2023 was clearly the best OL Allen has ever had to go with also his best RB and run game he has had in his entire career with a 1200 yard rusher in Cook who also was an effective weapon out of the backfield too. So sorry, the offense is made up of more than just the receivers. And while 2020 Bills had the best individual WR season which was Diggs best of his career, the 2023 roster overall was better.

Oh I agree, he wasn't talented enough. But he also played scared and avoided throws he was capable of making and elected to take safer check down throws. Then there is the infamous 4th down where he didn't even try and just ran out of bounds to end a game.

Personally, I think Houston is being prematurely overhyped. Im not saying they don't have a shot to be a top AFC team this year, because they obviously do. But I think their season last year was a bit overrated after having an easy schedule full of bad teams/defenses. So to assume they make this big leap to AFC powerhouse feels premature, especially without knowing how the new pieces fit in there or how Stroud plays in his sophomore year with a season full of tape on him now. Against the Ravens in the playoffs they looked like they didn't belong. This year, they have an easy start to the season and I expect them to be 3-1 or 4-0 heading into week 5 against us where I think we will win that game. Then their schedule is easy again until they finally get 4 challenging games in their final 7 games. So odds are, they probably finish with a good record again and probably win their division. But overall, they do not scare me in week 5 nor do they scare me if we are to face them in the playoffs...at least right now.

Yeah Kelvin was there for me too...he bothered me less though as it was clear he would be gone soon as we were about to start a rebuild. There is no amount of hypnosis that could have made Trent a good NFL QB.

First, you said 2021...but now you are using 2020. So this is the wrong year Second, I disagree 2021 Diggs and 2023 Diggs were that much different in terms of his individual ability. The real difference was Daboll vs Dorsey/Brady combo. A passing system designed by Dorsey and Daboll is like comparing Olive Garden to a restaurant in Italy. Under Brady, Diggs usage was completely different, but people want to translate that to Diggs losing a step, which is a false leap in logic. Brady went away from chunk feeding Diggs and the deep ball, and instead spread the ball around more and then elected to run more than throw. Furthermore, the 2021 offense had its own lull under Daboll until he finally made some changes. They finally realized Sanders was declining and the offense was better with Davis on the field down the stretch. He discovered that Knox was actually a good redzone weapon and finally started using him as such. And he realized having no run game was a bad thing at half time of the Bucs loss where were getting blown out but nearly came back and won in the 2nd half after getting Devin involved. He would then use Devin a lot more and the down the stretch and the offense improved. Third, Kincaid is more of a receiver than he is a TE. Talent for talent, last years offense was the best group Allen has had to work with. Better OL, better running backs, better run game, better group of weapons between Diggs, Kincaid, Davis, and Shakir as the top 4 guys. People need to stop leaving Kincaid out of the receiving weapons group just because it doesn't say "WR" as his position when his primary role here is to catch passes. The offense is so much more than just "receivers"...and I know you know that.