Alphadawg7

Well I don't think you listened to the interview. None of the stuff discussed are things that would be misleading teams, being tricky, etc. He was talking the way he always does and the things he was saying are pretty spot on with his time here. People tend to throw this blanket statement out about everything a GM says as if everything they say has some impact on how the draft will fall. None of what they said has any impact really on the draft. And Beane has proven to be pretty honest in the past with the kind of things he was saying today. So I think to disregard it as just "draft smokesreens" is really ignoring Beane's history.

There are no reports of Bills meeting with any of the big 3, and based on Beanes presser, I think there is almost no chance he his eying a move for one. We have however met with BTJ once (at least reported once). However, Beane was pretty adamant about not liking trading future first round picks. While he said he would do it if the deal made sense, it really was not something he wants to or likes to do and referenced the team regretting it when they did so in Carolina. On the flip side, he was very blunt about being aggressive to go get a guy when he gets close enough to make sure they get him. So IMHO, I think moving up for BTJ isn't realistic until he gets to probably at least 20, if he even gets to 20. And there has been some smoke about maybe Pitt and Bills swapping picks at 20. I am even more of that belief when you see the amount of interest they have in other WR's where they have had multiple visits with them like Franklin, McConkey, Coleman, Worthy, etc.

This lacks a lot of context. Not every draft is equal, some drafts are top heavy and weak outside the top guys like 2021 for example. Then others were considered weak for top tier prospects, but very deep for 2nd tier prospects outside round 1 like 2019. The hit rates and miss rates very much follow the patterns of the draft strength/weakness at the position. So this doesn't IMHO dictate a model to follow and really shows you need to understand the strength and weakness of the position in each given draft to know what you need to do if you want to address WR. In a year like 2022 or 2021 where the draft going in was seen as a top heavy WR draft and weak after that, you better making a move to go get a guy. But in a year like 2019, where there wasn't a lot of highly graded guys but a lot of strength in the depth, you are better letting it come to you or even trading back instead of reaching for a N'Keal Harry. This is a very deep draft, there are going to be a lot of guys who become good players outside the first round this draft.

I think there is no chance Kneeland is the pick for the Bills in the first. In the 2nd, yes. Not in the first. Beane literally said while he has more first round grades on players this year than last years weak draft, he specifically stated its still less than 28 players. There is no way Kneeland is one of his first round graded players that probably is around 20 to 22 players. He also said while he would take someone on the DL at 28, it would really depend on who is there and that he feels good about getting one outside the first round. Meaning maybe if one of the top 3 guys get there who are expected to go earlier he would consider it...he isn't talking about Kneeland IMHO. While I am all for them taking Kneeland later, I do not at all think its remotely possible it would be at 28. But, thats just my opinion, anything is possible. But that would be an absolute shock to probably just about everyone as he is currently a round 2 or 3 guy in just about everyones eyes.

https://bleacherreport.com/post/sports-betting/913586c7-723c-4be5-b20a-abdda04c4112 Jayden going 2nd odds decrease and Mayes increase. Like I’ve been saying, I’m hearing Maye is getting momentum in Washington

It definitely came across pretty authentic if you watch the whole interview and I think it’s because he knows for a team to move back to 28 is going to cost a lot as teams won’t have a lot of interest to move back that far, if any at all.

Respectfully disagree, Beane has always been pretty straight forward with this stuff and he is echoing what he has always said and done.

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/your-team-has-to-evolve-bills-general-manager-brandon-beane-speaks-ahead-of-the-2024-nfl-draft-buffalo-bills Take aways: I do not think Beane is even thinking about moving into the top 10 to get one of the big 3 WR. He said he would take any call, but he also said teams in the top 10 don't generally call teams down at 28. When asked about him calling them, he mocked them even wanting to take his call and made it clear he hasn't called them. Worth noting as well, Bills have no reported visits or meetings with MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. We did reportedly meet once with Thomas. He is not a fan at all of moving a future first, which I will cover in comments below. I think he made it pretty clear as well that we are not going to be trading for a proven guy such as Aiyuk or Higgins as many have been wanting. Specifically said when we traded for Stef, Allen was an ascending player and the offense needed a guy like that. But that now with Allen ascended to the player he is, that is not a requirement and not necessary. He made it clear he is very comfortable making a small trade up to make sure he can get the guy he covets. So if there is one he wants where a small move up to go get him is on the table, I think he will pull that trigger. He also made it very clear he really does NOT want to move next years 1st, but did admit he would if the deal made sense to do it. Referenced regretting those kind of moves in the next draft when they did them in Carolina when the next draft came and the guy they gave up that first didn't really get them over the top. He also doesn't plan to move the 2nd we got for Diggs, but wouldn't rule it out if they felt the right deal was there. Between Josh, McD and Beane interviews, I think it was pretty clear they have a lot of confidence in the core of Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook. It is clear we are going after a WR in first 2 rounds, but I would not expect us to go back to back WR or take 2 early as some around here have suggested. If we take a 2nd one, I would expect it later like rounds 4 and on. Beane made it clear that trading back is very much in play at 28 and pointed out if they couldn't get Kincaid they had a real good trade back worked out he really liked. Also added he would love to add someone on the DL that can contribute this season. While he said it could be in the first, would have to see what is there at 28 in general, but went on to say he sees guys outside the first in this draft that can come in and contribute this year. So what I came away with is that I think there is very little chance we are making a move to get MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. It was also clear it was just as unlikely we are going after someone like Aiyuk, Higgins, etc either. And that has been my belief all along as well. While I wouldn't say that anything he said rules out moving up into the teens to get Thomas (like say Jags at 17), I think it's a low possibility he goes up outside the 20's. The thing that most often stuck out was the reluctance on using high future picks to move up. I think Beane really likes the idea of having a first and two 2nd's next year and really prefers not trading them. And I do think that trading back is a very strong possibility for us to try and get a 3rd this year or maybe even a third 2nd for next year. All in all this was a good listen...and Beane has a track record for being pretty straight forward and candid on these things, so I think he is shooting pretty straight with his comments like he always has.

I am about to post a recap of Brandon Beanes press conference today. One of the take aways is that I think there is no chance he will be trading for an established WR. He specifically addressed how when we got Diggs, it was what the team needed with Allen being an ascending player. Then he very specifically stated that with Josh at the level he is now that he does not believe he needs that like he did when they went and got Diggs. So I think you can scratch off any kind of trade for an established WR. I do like McConkey too, and I believe the Bills do as well since McConkey stated publicly he has met with them like 3 times now. But I went Franklin for 2 reasons...I don't think McConkey reaches us on that trade down and I do think there is substance to the Bills being high on Franklin.

I don't know if he will be the pick, but they have shown significant interest in Coleman who also personally stated that of all his interviews the one with the Bills was the stand out one that went the best. The WR's they have shown the most interest in from meetings with them would be from what I can gather Franklin, Coleman, McConkey, Worthy, and Mitchell. They did meet with Thomas, but reportedly only once and no reports of any meetings with the big 3.

My personal opinion this is unrealistic. I can not see Beane investing that much into one position of WR in this draft. Beane just spoke to the media today and one thing was very clear, he really isn't keen on moving next year picks to move up. He did say he would if the deal made sense, but he said in Carolina when they would do that they often found themselves regretting it the next year based on how the player turned out and who was on the board at the pick they would have had. So anyone who thinks Beane is gonna trade up for Thomas and the for the 2nd time trade up into 3rd to get another WR is just not in touch with Beane and his draft philosophy. He will pull the trigger on Thomas if he wants him, he said as much, that if the guy and the trade make sense, he isn't afraid to do it. But it was crystal clear they really need to want that guy to make a big move like that. And there is just no way after a move like that he is going to again trade up for another WR leaving him short on assets both this year and next year to help fill out other areas of big need. Beane was also very clear he is high on Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook. So I don't think he feels this need or pressure to have to add 2 early.

I took Austin in the first TSW mock with the Commanders, I really like him as a day 3 pick. Unfortunately, I don't think the Bills will have a shot at him unless they make some moves as I think the upside is too strong and someone is going to take him in the 3rd. If he gets to us in the 4th, I would love this pick. He is a classic low floor but high ceiling pick, and I think he is worth the gamble.

Yeah, too much is made by fans and media over 40 times...and even fools some teams (like Al Davis notoriously would bite for 40 times over tape). Larry Fitzgerald was considered a cant miss WR and one of the highest graded WR's to come out the last 30 years and his 40 time was 4.64. He went on to live up to the hype and had a HOF career. Cooper Kupp is a 4.64 guy as well. Keenan Allen fell because he ran a 4.71. Speed is great, but its not the end all be all its made out to be. Meanwhile guys like John Ross get over drafted because they ran fast in shorts in a straight line with no one defending them. Polk at 4.54 is plenty fast enough to excel as a WR in the NFL, and he plays fast on the field and has good stop and go and quick cut speed to go along with his precise route running. But most importantly, his body control and ball skills is 2nd to only Odunze, and its a close 2nd. So his ability to adjust to the ball, to make contested catches, and catch in traffic just adds to his value. Funny you mention Ravens, because in my mock draft thread on the board right now I have Ravens taking Polk at 30. He gives them that big catch radius guy but also is probably the best blocking WR in the draft which really has value on a team like the Ravens. His tape on blocking alone was very impressive on top of what he can do as a WR. I also keep hearing Chiefs are very high on him and he could go to them at 32 as well if he doesn't go to Ravens.

IMHO I think the new KO rule moved Worthy up the Bills board personally. This new KO rule is bringing kick returns back and its going to come with the highest percentage of KO returns for TD's in the history of the league IMHO. So having a Worthy back there with his speed where even the slightest crease and its to the house is going to add to his value. Not saying we are investing an early pick just on a KR guy, but the bonus value of what he can bring there I think increases his value to a team. Worthy excelled in Punt returns in college, but didn't spend much time a kick returner. However the new rules will make the transition easy, and he was a weapon in Punt returns.

I don't think Worthy will be there at 28, and honestly I initially did not think we would have interest in him with how incredibe thin his frame is. Especially with how we like to see our WR's block but also with how bad our weather gets late in the season and playoffs, I thought they would prefer someone who is more physical where there is a premium on that when weather evens the playing field some with speed. But, given the strong interest in Franklin and the fact they have met with Worthy I believe twice, its not as unlikely as I thought because Troy has a light frame too, albeit not as light as Worthy. So I think my initial thought earlier in the offseason regarding Worthy and Bills interest were premature and off given the amount of times they have met with these two guys they don't seem to be too worried about frame. I still think Worthy is more of a WR2 in the NFL, I am just not convinced with his slender frame he can consistently get off the line clean or have his body handle the physicality of a 17 game and playoff long season. But that being said, that elite speed and Allen is a very exciting combo, so it would still be exciting addition.

Nabers yes, an elite version of Addison. But outside of him, the guys that I would list are Troy Franklin and Jalen McMillan of the Huskies, who is also someone they have had in for a visit. Of the 2 though, Troy has more WR1 potential where I think McMillan is going to be that more Addison role opposite a WR1 who has the potential to be a very good player for someone. In fact, I think all 3 Husky WR's in Odunze, Polk, and McMillan are very good prospects...Odunze elite top 15, Polk late first to 2nd, and McMillan back half of 2nd to 3rd is probably the ranges we see them come off the board. Another one I would keep an eye on is McConkey. He isn't getting much Bills buzz because for some reason its not even showing we have visited with him on most sites. However, McConkey himself directed stated he has met like 3 times with the Bills, so I do think there is legit interest in him too. He really fits what I think the Bills want out of a WR as he probably has the highest floor in the draft outside the big 3 and is one of the most consistent and reliable WR's this year. But if I was laying odds of all the WR's in the draft on the chances they become the first WR we take, I right now would give the best odds to Franklin and then from there I would go next McConkey, Mitchell, Worthy, Coleman, Walker, Legette, Thomas. I wouldn't have any of the big 3 above them, the Bills have literally no reported or accounted for meetings with any of the big 3. Just 1 reported meeting with Thomas. I am not 100% positive, but I don't think the Bills have ever taken a player round 1 they havent met with. Keep an eye out for Tez Walker, especially if we go someone like McConkey early. They have met with Walker as much as they have met with Franklin. If we don't go WR at 28, my guess is Walker is our pick at 60. Or if we trade back and take a WR and pick up a 3rd, it wouldn't surprise me if we took Walker in the 3rd if he was still there or to see them maybe even move up using some later round picks to get him. I do not think Walker is in play in earlier than that where they would go someone like Mitchell, Franklin or McConkey for example. But I definitely think he is very much in play if we pass on a WR with our first pick and we miss on some of those guys I just mentioned.

Yes, I’ve been hearing the same. In my mock draft thread I have Balt taking him at 30 as they also like him and he fits their style of offense so well, especially being maybe the best blocker at WR in the draft to go along with having all he brings as a WR and being that big catch radius target for Lamar. I had Chiefs trade up for an OT as well, however if I didn’t mock the chiefs trading up and Polk was on the board at 32, I would have mocked Polk likely to the Chiefs there. I keep hearing his name is coming up behind the scenes amongst NFL personnel a lot and while he isn’t getting the media attention, teams behind the scenes are high on him. Not only do I think he won’t get out of the 2nd, I think he goes somewhere between end of first and first half of round 2. I can’t find any reports of Bills meeting with him though, so I don’t think he is currently in our sights though. Bills have however met with Coleman several times though who is slower and personally I would take Polk over Coleman.

I went Franklin because I think there is some substance to all the Franklin buzz surrounding the Bills. They have met with him a lot too. I know you can’t take everything too seriously leading up to a draft, but everything about their interest makes sense. At 28, I think I would have leaned Mitchell rather than trade back to just be sure we got our guy and I have Mitchell graded a little higher than Franklin, although I do like Franklin too. But I tried to do the mock as the GM of each team on what I thought made the most sense to what they might really do, and if they want Franklin then while they could just take him at 28, I think a small trade back is the play for them. Even if they miss on Franklin being there, McConkey, Legette, Mitchell, etc are still on board, so one likely reaches us.

Thanks bud, and yeah I do like Polk myself too, think he has a high floor and will contribute early as a rookie for someone. And to just set the record straight on why I have Polk sneaking in at the end of the round…while I am personally high on him, I didn’t just plug him in there out of the blue. First, Ravens have met with him and had him in for a 30 visit. He style makes so much sense for their team and needs too and good chance he isn’t there in the 2nd. Also, I’ve been hearing Polks name a lot as a guy to watch end of the first with not only Ravens, but also KC with the Rice drama now ongoing. In this mock, both the Chiefs had traded up and Polk was off the board to Balt before KC would have been on the clock at end of round. But if neither of those two things happen, I think Polk is potentially in play for KC at end of round and may come down to what CBs or OL prospects are still on the board. Of course, if he doesn’t I still think he goes somewhere in the 2nd, but he is one of those guys who can really go anywhere in the 2nd, so sneaking into the end of the first didn’t feel like too much of a stretch. And every year guys go earlier and later than expected, so this felt within reason for him.

Yeah I like it too, although Mitchell being there would be interesting decision. I’d probably lean 60-40 on taking Mitchell just because you have no assurances Franklin makes it to us. While I do have Franklin reaching us, there are definitely spots he could go before our pick. And if I had to choose between Mitchell and Franklin straight up, I would lean a little more Mitchell even though I do like Franklin as well. But the lure of adding a 3rd, which IMHO has some great value this year in the 3rd at a number of positions we could use help at won me over in this mock. Im actually kind of chopping at the bit already to do a v2.0 and explore another scenario at the top in which I think is very plausible that might shift how the draft falls and see what that looks like for Buffalo. Also, maybe I’m bias, but Jags signing Gave Davis doesn’t feel like enough with just Kirk and Zay if they want to see what to do with Lawerence long term. Which is why I have them rebuffing Buffalo for a trade for BTJ. But, if Jags feel differently, it’s a realistic spot for Bills to go get BTJ if he is there. My biggest issue with mocking is moving up for Thomas is that I’m not seeing a lot of connection to him for us, but at least they did meet with him once that is reportedly known. But there are other guys who will be there at 28 and 2nd round that we have reportedly met with multiple times each. You can never over read into things ahead of a draft, but they do seem to be doing a lot more due diligence as if they they intend to let the draft come to them more than make a big trade up. For example, of the big 4, we have only reportedly met with Thomas the one time.

There hasn’t been as tempting bait as Worthy though and I think he is not gonna be able to resist. Not like it’s a bad pick, he’s a great fit there.

Yeah that’s Penix and yeah, Polk has the best ball skills outside his teammate Odunze in the draft. I would love that draft!

Thanks, and I still have a hard time seeing Miami take Worthy. They need help in the trenches so bad, luxury pick I think does very little for them. They are already the fastest team in the NFL, and they can't even win a playoff game or win the division with a 4 game lead late in the season. That is because you don't have to defend the speed as much as you just have to take Tua off his early reads to disrupt that offense. So they may take Worthy if he is there like @GunnerBill thinks as well, but I think they would be stupid to ignore the glaring needs elsewhere. I think their offense would be better helped by bolstering the OL more than adding Worthy personally.

Yeah, Denver was one that took me a minute to work through, although I can't see them taking WR unless one of the big 3 slip there. It was one of the picks I was the least sure what to do on to be honest, but QB's are such a higher premium I finally just leaned back that way. I think if they don't go QB that someone other than BTJ will be their BPA at that spot. I actually considered them trading back, the only issue I was having was I couldn't find a team where I was like they would definitely move up to this spot for this guy based who was on the board. The middle of round 1 is pretty rich with talent, not a lot of incentive to make moves IMHO for teams in that vicinity and still very expensive for guys at back end of the round to come up to.

By the way...let me say I was not a fan of how this mock fell as I began working on it where the Jets were staring at a free choice of either Odunze or Bowers at pick 10. Maybe they go OL instead, but those are two of my favorite players in the draft and hate the idea of either of them going to the Jets. I began working on this mock thread with no idea how it was gonna play out by the time I got to the end. I took each team one by one and looked at needs, the board, strength of each position in the draft, their future picks, etc. So when I got to 10 it just worked out that both Odunze and Bowers were both there. F the Jets lol