Alphadawg7

I don’t disagree that what you say makes sense…and it’s what I think too. Although I wouldn’t say not a chance…all it takes is Bears to go OL or DL, and there is a lot of talk about them addressing OL after Caleb has made some social comments about importance of the OL. There are some elite talents on the OL in the same spot.

I can pretty much guarantee that Beane is not going to both trade up in the first for a WR and draft one again at 60

Riveting

I don't disagree...which is why I was having a hard time with how it was falling...its still a work in progress

Funny...I am already working on a v2.0 and changes at the top are starting to reveal a path that would push Odunze down the board and I am not sure how I feel about it. A popular place for him is either at 9 to the Bears, or the Bears trade back given they only have 4 draft picks. But those 4 picks are 2 first rounders, a 3rd and a 4th...so they have a ton of draft cap value even with 4 picks, so I am not so sure they feel they must trade back either rather than add an elite prospect here. And if they go ahead and make their pick, Odunze feels like a luxury pick given they have DJ Moore. They can find a potential WR2 to replace Allen maybe in round 3 or 4 with the draft being deep. So I have this feeling that they might look at filling an expensive spot by adding a premier pass rushing prospect here. So lets say that happens...I still think Jets take Bowers, not Odunze given they already have Wilson and Bowers is the ultimate mismatch. Vikings are up now at 11...they won't take him...if they don't go QB (JJ McCarthy already off the board in this mock having missed out on trading up) they likely do something like take the top Corner there. Now we are at 12...Broncos...sure, they could take him here. But would they instead take a QB like Bo Nix here they reportedly like instead? QB is more important than a WR and there is a deep WR draft. Maybe they trade back...but with who? Saw someone posting Colts might move up for Nabers...but would they for Odunze? Lets say they go Nix... Now its 13 and Raiders are up...they could take Odunze here as an heir to Adams, and that would make sense. They still could go Penix here or take one of the premier OL guys on the board still...or even trade back. I don't know...my gut makes me think Odunze can't get this far down...but if he gets past Chicago, there is a path where he could fall into the teens. If that happens, I am wondering what Beane starts thinking. Anyways...just more of my thoughts out loud here as I work on v2.0 which does have some changes based on new things I am hearing and seeing.

I wouldn't say take it with a grain of salt per se, but I phrase it more as not to completely rule out a big trade up. I think Beane is being very authentic when loathing about giving up future first rounders. He went into detail on when we knew we would be trading up to get Josh Allen that he went out of his way to make sure he had the assets prior to avoid giving up future first rounders. But...he did also make clear if there is a deal that makes sense, he would include next years first, so its not off the table. The take away for me is NOT that he won't at all do it, but that he doesn't seem to be actively looking to make a trade into the top 10 happen like a lot of people think he is. He will however listen to offers and give them consideration, but the main issue is that teams picking that high don't generally want to move all the way down to 28 as I assure you there are no teams who have 28 first round graded players in this draft. So they go from an elite prospect, to risking not even getting a first round graded player at 28. So that begs the question...what kind of comp is it going to take to make a team give up on an elite talent? Popular choice is people citing Chicago only have 4 picks...well if we are trading to 9, then at least one of the big 3 are still on the board. For Chicago to give up an elite WR prospect to pair with their rookie QB just to move back to 28 is a big ask. They aren't going to give it away cheap just to add some mediocre picks, they would just take Odunze or one of the other top graded players at another position like Bowers or someone on the OL/DL. And quite frankly, Bears are going to have a lot of suitors for pick 9 between picks 11 and 20 where they would probably feel more comfortable trading back to. Just like how if we trade back, no one wants us to go too far and miss out on some of the guys we would take on the trade back. It takes both teams wanting the trade to make it happen. Which is why I think a big move inside the top 10 seems like low probability right now, although not impossible obviously given Beane flat out said if it made sense he would do it. But we aren't getting into the top 10 with 28 and a low first rounder next year. It will cost more than that. There does seem to be some buzz about a potential trade at 20 with Pitt though...so maybe thats the spot he would go get BTJ if he is still on the board. Its also not crazy for BTJ to make it to 28 either, most the places he is penciled in ahead of in mocks don't have WR as their biggest need with top prospects at other positions of need still on the board. So each of those popular spots like Jags, Bengals, and Steelers where BTJ is often mocked too (when not reaching us) could easily pass on him too. But if he gets to say 20, and Beane really is high on him and has him as their guy, I think he starts looking to go get him to make sure one of the other teams like Balt, Det, KC don't leap frog us for him or someone like Dallas or Arizona snag him ahead of us.

Did you listen to the full interview? Based on your comments it doesn’t sound like it because if you did you would know he didn’t discuss anything that gives away, or even suggests, their strategy and plans. Nothing about that his interview was strategic in that type of nature.

I didn’t take Beanes comments about guys stepping up to be about one of the WRs becoming a boundary WR1 to replace Diggs…more just about young guys stepping up in general using Bernard as an example. Which is why based on his convo and mention of Shakir, I think Shakir is who he is talking about. Remember, Shakir doesn’t have to be a boundary WR to be a big part of our offense, he can do it from the slot. Cole was a more niche player and almost had 1000 yards out of the slot.

Again…wake me when you actually add something to the convo

I think some clarity needs to be made. When Beane was talking about not needing that WR1 it was in reference to being asked about making a big “Diggs” like trade for a proven star WR1 like Aiyuk. Beane stated that Josh was in a different place (when he got Diggs) as an ascending player and they felt someone like Diggs was needed on this team for his continued growth. He then said where Josh is now he doesn’t feel like that is necessary where he needs to make an expensive and big move for a WR1. He did however emphatically state he’s going after a WR in the drafts. And people are mixing up his comments to mean he is not looking for a possible WR1 in draft, which is not at all what he said. Beane knows a WR is coming via draft has to earn his role and isn’t going to be a bonafide WR1 day one. So there is no mistaking anything here, Beane is going after a WR and going to do it early in this draft, in which we all, including Beane, hopes becomes a legit WR1 for Allen.

To be honest, when I was listening interview, I felt like he was referencing Shakir in how he started to emerge last year and set to take on a bigger role. It could be someone else, but the way he was speaking about it just sounded like he was still referencing Shakir who he had referenced as well already. If it wasn’t Shakir and instead someone else, then I think maybe Shorter would make the most sense.

I will take it a step further. Bills may miss the playoffs, make the playoffs, or win the Super Bowl. So let’s all log off since it’s all covered and nothing to discuss about it. Another quality post by you 🙄 Wake me when you actually add something to a conversation

Lol, dude it’s not something anyone can be right or wrong about, so this whole “Alpha gonna spike the ball if we don’t trade up” childish take is stupid. Beane literally does NOT know what he is going to do right now, let alone me or any other person. And he won’t until the draft starts and begins to play out. I didn’t even say he won’t trade up, neither did Beane. I said he doesn’t seem to be actively looking to get into the top 10, but he literally said he would take any call about it and while he hates trading future first round picks that is the deal makes sense he would do it. Some of you have a real issue of deciphering between analytically looking at possible scenarios and deciphering what might be more or less likely versus making absolute declarations of what will for sure happen. All I did was provide my take aways of what Beane appears to be thinking right now, which he pretty clearly stated that he’s not made or received calls about the top 10. He also said this is the week where phones ring off the hook. So yeah, I believe he has not yet had any convos about the top 10…doesn’t mean he won’t have though. More importantly, your counter point of why isn’t he calling the top 10 guys about a trade back since they would be the teams to trade up to 28 with the Bills is pretty obvious and simple. I mean Beane literally said those calls don’t start happening until this week, and second, most of the time those calls, especially at the back of the draft happen during the draft because no one knows how the board will fall and if there is someone there they are willing to spend picks to go get. So yeah, you can take the snarky “Alpha gonna gloat” childish stuff elsewhere. Nothing about my take aways were about being “right” nor are they possible to be “right” given Beane doesn’t know now what he will do until the draft starts playing out. I did NOT rule anything completely out, just commenting on what I think the likeliness of different scenarios happening. And I still very much think Beane will absolutely trade up if a guy he wants gets within reasonable trade range. I just believe it’s to a place closer to us than the top 10, like late teens or 20 and closer.

I do think a trade back is very much in play, especially listening to Beanes presser, however I also have no doubt that if someone graded higher Beane wants gets near them…say pick 20 or closer, that Beane will start looking at making a move and could pull the trigger to get him.

He actually said the opposite. He said they don’t need to get a true WR1 guy, there is not a need for a “Diggs” like when they traded for him and Josh was still developing. He made clear they are going to get a WR though. Maybe just listen for yourself then rather than say I heard what I wanted to hear when I posted exactly what he said. I didn’t say he has spoken to teams to trade down. He literally said this is the week the phone starts ringing off the hook. He specifically said he has not called anyone about moving in the top 10 and no one has called him either as teams that high generally don’t want to move all the way back to 28.

So you’re saying you don’t actually have a point here…got it lol

Who led the team in receiving once Brady took over and had the only 100 yards games (twice)? Diggs or Shakir? Thanks for playing.

Spot on. This ☝️

Or there is the fact that Josh, McD, and Beane made those two a focal point of being heavily involved along with Kincaid this year. Just like how Shakir and Kincaid were even when Diggs and Davis were here once Brady took over. So yeah, you’re wrong about it being by default

Well I mean it doesn't take a leap in logic to know the hit rate is higher in round 1, that is true for every position and the nature of drafting higher graded prospects. Again, my main point is that there is context to every draft that this type of comparison does not account for which I have already mentioned, and that also includes inaccurate assessments of said drafts going into the draft. Where a class proves a lot stronger or worse than was predicted prior to the draft. All good, just my 2 cents Oddly some people still wanted him this offseason lol...goes to show how long draft hype can survive like a long dwindling candle for some of these guys

I think you missed the point...at least the point I took away from it...and that is maybe what the new look offense will are going to bigger opportunities with YAC between guys like Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid being more heavily involved than force feeding Diggs and the plodding of Davis. And YAC was one of the things specifically mentioned today in the pressers about traits they are looking for.

I mean I gave you examples...and I definitely do not agree about 2021. I did not find that to be a great draft in the day 2 and day 3 range at WR. So all I am saying, every draft is very different. You can't just look at a hit rate from one draft and then equally compare it to the hit rate of the next draft which has totally different level of talent in it, not to mention, total different level of complexity too on how the draft falls based on the strength and weaknesses of other positions affecting teams decisions too.

To be clear I did not at all say he wouldn't do anything. I definitely wasn't saying he wouldn't go get a WR, and he was very clear he intends to go get a WR. What I was actually saying is that its pretty clear that moving to the top 10, at least as of now, to get one of the top 3 seems highly unlikely between what he would have to get up and teams even being willing to move that far down in the first place. And if you put together all his statements, I think its pretty clear a guy like Aiyuk is very unlikely. He said multiple things about now wanting to give up the picks, cap considerations, and Josh not being a place where he feels that is necessary move to make. I mean, all of these are open to interpretations, so doesn't mean I am right...but IMHO its pretty clear that he doesn't have his mind on trading for a proven guy. And the DeVonta deal for $25m per for a WR2 is going to jack the price up even higher for someone like Aiyuk. So I think it has almost no chance of happening. Just my 2 cents though. I woudln't be surprised if he looked into it or if the Niners called Beane though. He was very adamant about not being afraid to move up, but he was referencing more of those smaller move ups that don't cost future first round picks. Now he did say he would trade his first if the deal made sense, and I believe him. But to make sense, I think he needs to really covet that player. So would he go get Thomas? Maybe, they met with him once, so they at least showed interest. But I think 20 or later is the spot where that comes into play, where they can do it and probably not have to give up next years first.

As I mentioned above, I don't think you listened to the interview because no where in the interview did he indicate anything they plan to do. I get what you are saying, I am just saying it doesn't really apply here in that way based on the subjects of conversation.