Alphadawg7

It was 2022, we lost 3 games and by a total of I believe 9 points. It was a weird year, so close to undefeated season, yet every week felt so hard to win.

I don't disagree that Allen coming off the 2021 game had a different level of respect. The issue was that now expectations were that it was Allen and the Bills time, that they were the better team and got screwed by a coin toss. This was only furthered by the fact the Bengals shut down the Chiefs offense to hold them to only 3 points in the 2nd half of the AFCCG to upset them. Coming into 2022 the Bills were the sexy choice for the SB. Many people felt Bills would have won the SB in 2021 had they advanced past KC. Then 2022 was not the season people expected from the Bills or Allen. We won a lot of games still, but it felt hard at times. Bills reporters were asking Allen in post game interviews after wins if he believed this was a championship offense. Bills 3 losses were by a total of 8 or 9 points. We were a handful of points from being undefeated that season, but everything seemed hard and the offense had a lull midseason too. Then we get a home playoff game and got embarrassed at home. Enter 2023...many people are now giving 2022 more of a pass based on the trauma the team and city went through in 2022. Again expectations are high for Allen and the Bills. He opens the season with a disaster of a game and a loss to Zack Wilson. We are 5-5 and have to fire our OC. The media and analyst are starting to turn on him more again. Brady comes in, the team starts winning, and Allen starts turning heads as the Bills go on a late season run, but he still has his skeptics. We finally get KC at home and we again come up short. So I don't think the bias is all in the Bills fans head per se, I think there is a real bias around Allen that the media and pundits want to stick to more than they want to talk about how good he is and I think it shows up in the MVP voting too. He is not the only one, guys like Hurts and Lamar have faced too in their careers as well.

I get your point to the other poster here, but I also do think it's somewhat of a fair response in an article naming the 5 most overrated players for that poster to share who they think is overrated. And when doing so, its going to be about an accomplished player because no one is making overrated lists about guys who are not highly regarded. And with all Jackson's regular season accomplishments, I don't think its unfair to still see him a bit overrated given his lack of postseason success, which IMHO is a better barometer in these discussions. Postseason is as close as they can get to a more apples to apples comparison as the quality of opponents is more even than say a regular season where one team can face an overall easier schedule than another that can help an individuals stat output. But to be fair, all these overrated conversations are all splitting hairs anyway...guys like Allen, Lamar, Burrow, and Hebert are all very good to elite QB's stuck playing in the Mahomes/Reid era much like we saw with the Bill/Brady era. All of them will have "overrated" critics until they break through and hoist their own SB Trophy (if ever).

Yeah, I think this may be the case as well. 3 things are working more in favor this year in terms of an MVP race than any recent past year for Allen: He does not have Diggs - So much is made of Diggs arrival and Allens development, but if you look at the arc of Allens development from the last time he stepped off a college football field until the moment we traded for Diggs, it was already full of big steps forward. So while Diggs and Allen clearly benefited from each other, I think too much of Allen's success has been seen to be "because" of Diggs rather than Allen and the immense work he put in to elevate his game. He does not have a proven lead target - Our top 2 returning guys are in the 2nd and 3rd years where they have not yet played a regular season game without both Diggs and Davis. And the guy starting at the X is a rookie. And Samuel has been really a complimentary WR more so than a lead WR. Expectations for the Bills overall are down from the past few seasons - With the losses we took of long time key players on both sides of the ball, the Bills are no longer than top team expected to challenge KC for AFC superiority, or even the consensus favorite to win our own division. So I think he enters the season with lower productivity expectations and the team has lower overall expectations as well. Compare this to he has entered the season as an MVP favorite and the Bills have been a popular SB pick most of the past 3 seasons. When that is the case, its MUCH easier to disappoint to expectations than to exceed them. This year, he has the best chance to exceed preseason individual and team expectations since maybe 2020. And with the slight bias against him, Allen is someone that needs to exceed expectations to really firmly have a real shot at the necessary votes for MVP IMHO.

True for all of us. And Kudos on owning it rather than spinning it like so many do here. Respect ✊

One, MVS would be the 5th WR unless you are assuming Cain or Hamler beat him out and MVS is the "6th WR". Bills are keeping 5 WR's at the min (and I think it will be 5 specifically). So if your point is that the Bills can only keep 5 WR's to keep Davidson, well I already think that is the case, and that 5th guy seems to be leaning towards MVS (unfortunately) but I would say Cain or Hamler might still have a chance and make MVS a surprise cut. I would very much like to see Davidson make the roster as I do not think he will be safe on the PS and I do think Knox will be gone next year and Davidson has good upside as a possible replacement for him. And...I think the best path to the roster for Davidson is the fact that I have a feeling Beane is already realizing a move may have to be made with Knox next year given his cap number next year (I think its like $14M or something crazy like that if I am not mistaken) unless they can rework something with Knox.

Geezus christ, you just can't help yourself. The points I was referring to was this year under Brady compared to last year under Brady on why there are some caveats of differences. Why the hell would I talk about any time of Diggs career prior to that? Diggs was a top 3 WR for 2-3 years in the NFL when he first got here, I was one of his biggest fans, my dogs name is Diggs. I was talking about the caveats from BRADY last year to BRADY this year and what he is WORKING with. And the facts are, Diggs was HIGHLY inefficient the final 10 games last year. And here you go again...you just IGNORED that I said his efficiency dropped in the SECOND HALF of the season in 2022 as well and went ahead and responded with something TOTALLY different to try and hang on desperately to trying to be right about something you were never right about. And again...you also brought Shakir back up when I said this has nothing to do with him and he was just used as a quick comparison to show the inefficient numbers you were ignorant to about Diggs. But here you are again bringing him back up. Just stop. Why people just insist on doubling down on missteps or mistaken comments is beyond me. Rather than just realizing you misunderstood my point, which is fair, you keep trying to double down on your mistake to spin it still to somehow make me wrong about something you misunderstood in the first place. Its maybe the thing I hate most about the board.

Having watched him in LA, I came into the draft agreeing he should be the first QB taken...but I also had some reservation about whether he had what it takes to be a leader and a field general in the NFL to reach his full potential in the NFL. I also had some concerns about is he more of a front runner, or can he hold it together when things are not going their way. That being said, he has really impressed me thus far and my concerns are far lower now than they were prior to the draft. I am not saying he is a lock to be the next great QB, but I do really like what I have seen from him with all the access we have gotten from Hard Knocks in terms of being a leader of that team already. I like a lot what I have seen in limited play on the field too. So heading into the season I am more optimistic about his future than I was previously and think the kid has been very impressive and give him his kudos. He is setup for success there as well with Moore and Odunze their long term, a good TE in Kmet, and Allen has a reliable safety net for a young QB this year too. OL is still a question mark, but they have made additions there in the draft, so should be headed in the right direction too.

Gotcha, ok I can see where your hands comment is coming from then. I don't personally share those same concerns, but at least it makes sense now why you said what you said about the hands where its more not being in sync of where to be and where the ball is being delivered more so than the players ability to make a catch.

Curious, why do you think hands are an issue? I mean I get skepticism on the effectiveness of the group until we see them on the field, but specficially their hands is an odd one given overall this group should be more efficient when it comes to catch rate than last years group. Of all the concerns about Keon, the one positive trait almost everyone agrees with rather they like or dislike the Keon pick is he had good hands. Kincaid and Shakir were amongst the best catch rates (Shakir being #1) in the NFL last year, and Samuels hands aren't bad either. Now MVS...he sucks...maybe the worst hands of anyone Josh has played with the past 3 to 4 years, I will give you that one, but I doubt he sees many targets.

What are you even talking about dude. You jumped into a conversation with no idea about what you are talking about and started coming at me based on your assumptions not facts. And that is something that happens way too much here. First I was only talking about Diggs and Davis being gone with Brady now working with a new group. You chimed in with your inaccurate assumptions. I used Shakir as a quick and easy example of a huge discrepancy, not to highlight Shakir, but to show just how inefficient Diggs was with his targets. So leave Shakir out of this, it has nothing to do with the point. So let me educate you on what inefficiency is by only focusing on what Diggs did on the field that earned the comment that said he was inefficenct in the first place, because it is a FACT despite your ignrorace to the facts. Diggs final 10 games (INCLUDING 2 Playoff games): 80 targets, 47 Catches, 422 yards. Efficiency: Catch Rate: 58.8% Yards Per Catch: 8.98 Yards per Target: 5.28 Yards per game: 42.2 If you think those are not highly inefficient for a #1 WR then you should never ever discuss WR's again. Those are facts...not petty assumptions. I did not say Diggs was highly efficient his whole career, I was a big champion of Diggs almost his entire career here, and I was one who thought he wouldn't even be traded this year and thought it would be next year. And FWIW, Diggs also saw a drop in his efficiency in the 2nd half of the 2022 year as well, not as steep as this years very dramatic drop, but a relevant drop none the less. So...get out of here with this "embarassing" myself nonsense. You have no idea what you are talking about, what the subject even is and you come at me with the pompous attitude for no reason. This is the kind of stuff that gets so old around here.

So you ignored the facts about his last 10 games here under Brady...and instead included his high usage under Dorsey to change the point of the conversation which was talking about his inefficiency under Brady. Got it. Why dont you go compare his efficiency under both Dorsey then Brady before you come into a conversation lacking the necessary information to accurately weigh in.

Really? Shakir had more yards than Diggs over the final 10 games (also led the team over that span in yards) on 38 targets than Diggs had on more than double that with 80 targets. Not to mention the substantially higher catch rate (Shakir led all WR's in the NFL), YPT, and YPC. Yes you know his name. No you don't know his stats or efficiency...or should I say...inefficiency.

All fair points...but couple added caveat points here: Brady wasn't running "his" system last year, he was working out of Dorsey's, so we really can't rely too much on how he did with Brady last year as it won't be the same this season. Gone are two highly inefficient players in Diggs and Davis as the top of the peking order. Davis especially where Allen has committed by a wide margin the most INT's while throwing to. Gone is the high volume single target offense and in coming is a spread the ball around, take the openings when you see it offense. We don't know how this offense is going to fair this season, but I think its certainly plausible that we can see a noticeable drop in turnovers from Allen.

His yards per reception was already low last year...you think it gets worse? Doubt that

Thanks, and yeah spot on 💯 Ha, we all have these takes in our closet...some of us learn from them, others don't and tend to forget them like they didn't happen lol. Its rare you will ever find me hard convicted to any one scenario, a lesson I learned on CJ Spiller when I was 100% convinced he should be our feature RB after his big season. For example, as you know I am more optimistic on our current group of weapons, including Keon, than you are. And that has a lot to do with how I feel about Kincaid and Shakir. But by no means do I think its a lock the offense will be better, its just a style of offense I prefer compared to a top heavy one where you force feed a top target. But, both Kincaid and Shakir are going to be tested in bigger roles, Keon still needs to show what he can (or can't) do on the field, etc. So no certainties even if I think there are reasons to be optimistic about it. But, if the offense does not take a step forward this year, which despite my optimism is quite possible, I will be pounding the drum to got get more talent at WR this offseason with all our cap space and draft picks. I guess that is also why I think people are too negative on Keon, because even if he proves he isn't the solution say as a WR1, he has a lot to like as a potential very good WR2 for us, and we can go out and get a proven WR1 or move up in the draft and take one next year to play along side each other. Cheers and GoBills!

I have Mixon as well along with JJ and McConkey. We have several similar players

Yeah, I don't normally do a lot of Bills...only guys in the past 4 or 5 years have really been on any of my teams with any frequency have been mostly Allen or Diggs. I hated Davis in fantasy...classic guy who got you nothing when you start him and some big game occasionally on your bench. I think I had Cook in a couple leagues last year, although I don't think I had Diggs in any of them. The draft I did yesterday has a couple guys who are usually pretty savvy with rookies, young players, sleepers etc. But as we got into the draft it became clearer they were not as up to speed as much as usual, probably due to busier lives with kids and stuff now. I could tell they kind of just ignored the Bills all together with "Diggs gone", so I just kept seeing some of the guys just scream value on the board in some spots and ended up with more than I intended. It was mainly because 3 of them were all 10th round or later (Coleman, Shakir, and Davis), so cheap investment with good upside.

I am honestly probably not going to have time to do an All-22 review this week like I did the first 2, not to mention I am less interested in stretching myself to do it either with all our starters sitting out. So I will just rely more on people like you and others who saw him play more yesterday. So thanks for the update

I don't think there is much of an upgrade out there than Mitch...so I am more like what ever with the backup spot. If Allen goes down for a chunk or bulk of the season like Burrow did last year, I would rather see us lose all the time to get a premium high draft pick in every round next year to go along with our extra 2nd and 2 extra 4ths.

Not only did we do it, my wife insisted without me making a case for it lol. We love football in this house, so not only are we watching Bills games and her Niners games, but we have 3 TVs on our living room wall to watch all the other games too. To not get it means you either don't watch the games not on primetime or national broadcasts (which is not an option for us) or go out somewhere and watch the games, which is way more expensive. If we went out for just 3 or 4 games during the season it would cost more than the package costs. So no brainer for us - $400 for 4+ months of family entertainment is a bargain...thats like $25 a week for up to 7 hours of Sunday daytime entertainment each week. But again, we watch both the Bills and Niners here and we love to watch all the other games too.

Alright...just finished my most expensive annual league we have been doing for 25 years. I landed Shakir in round 12, I had actually planned on taking him a little earlier, but when I realized that the guys in my league seemed less prepared than normal leaning more on "names" than upside younger guys, I thought I can probably wait a little bit longer. Funny, I actually ended up with more Bills than I intended to, but kept getting such good value on them and there was no one else I felt as good about at each spot I got them. I got Allen (3rd round) and Kincaid (5th round). I was pretty happy with that even though I generally don't like going QB early, but QB's score more in this league than most, so having a top end QB is sizable advantage. And there had been a run on TE's and luckily Kelce, LaPorta, Andrews, and McBride went first. With Kittle and Kincaid still there, I just couldn't pass on Kincaids upside. Took a late round flier on Davis too when there wasn't much left on the board. The other guy I got was Coleman, which I had not intended on taking after landing Kincaid and still targeting Shakir later. But the few guys I was looking went just before my pick and Colemans value there in the 10th round was too high to just pass up for some middling vet I probably wouldn't play over starters anyway or rookies with lower upsides this season based on expected roles and volume of targets. So went with his upside and figured 2 late picks in 10th and 12th were a bargain to insure I landed whoever is likely to emerge as the top WR for Allen this year.

You know, you may be right. Admittedly, I had a lot going on during the game with a fantasy draft going on and also my in-laws here, so only caught plays here and there throughout and caught a couple bad ones that maybe I prematurely reacted too harshly on. I loved his film last week, so came in maybe with too much interest in him this week to where my reaction to a couple bad plays were maybe magnified a bit. So to be fair to him, I will wait until I get to rewatch it with more focus until I judge this weeks performance.

SVPG, Gore, Evans, Cain, and Jackson I felt all played well to very good. I caught some bad plays by Anderseen, but also wasn't able to focus on the whole game with a draft going on and my in-laws also here, so will look forward to watching more of his game when I sit down to rewatch the full game. SVPG is a lock for the roster IMHO, I think he has played well all preseason...the others not so much. I think their chances for the 53 are going to come down to how many they keep at other positions. With Davis, Cook, and Ty at RB its hard to keep a 4th unless they are considered valuable ST players or they have an extra spot because they didn't go as deep somewhere else. So will be interesting to see if they keep one of them. And with the receivers, its more will they keep 5 or 6 guys unless MVS becomes a surprise cut (and personally it wouldn't be that big of a surprise given all the drops in camp and preseason).

Boxer would get smashed by a grappler almost every time. They have no defense for it, once on the ground they have neither defense or offense, they are completely neutralized and the grappler can end it however they want.