Alphadawg7

Didn't realize passing TD's were worth more points than rushing TD's.

You know Allen only played 9 more games than Mahomes as a rookie right? Yet he is a sizeable lead on the TD's for first 6 years still, and again has nearly a 20 TD lead over Mahomes in the last 4 years playing for a defensive HC and 3 different OC's. And Allen started with trash on a team being torn down for 2 seasons before the rebuild really started. Mahomes started on a playoff caliber team with a HOF HC and 2 all time greats to throw too.

This year...for me...its Von Miller. I know a popular choice is Elam, but I am still optimistic on Elam, not ready to condemn him, so I don't want to be wrong about that lol. But Miller is a player I have had real doubts about being able to really get back to being a real contributor. I know there are positive reports out there, but the game changes dramatically when pads are on and the games begin. And at his age, expecting a resurgence is asking a lot. What I fear most is this...he comes out early and starts to look like he is back and its more of a mirage and is on the field too much because of it. Maybe gets 4-6 sacks in the first 6 games for example because he comes out fired up and that has people thinking he really is back. But he is old now, and its been a long time since he played a full season and then had to play a post season too. I fear his legs will fade the more reps he gets and becomes a liability again in the playoffs. Too much is made of sacks...sure they are great, but if a player gets say 8 sacks on a season...that is just a measly 8 plays he made...what happened on all the other plays? Is Von going to be a liability most plays but still manage to make 8 to 10 plays over the course of a season? What condition will he be in come playoffs if he plays the whole season is a real concern because it is the post season where we have NOT had a Chris Jones like player making the key stops to seal wins for Allen like Mahomes has had. So if the game is on the line, will Von have enough Juice to make the play...worse yet, if he doesn't will he still be on the field than say someone like AJE who may have a better shot at making a real play? I think it is almost worse if Von has some early season success then fades because he may be getting too many reps come playoff time based on that and that could hurt us more if he gets too many postseason snaps and isn't up for it.

Allen has More TD's than Mahomes over their first 6 years...Allen has more TD's since 2020 than Mahomes by a wide margin. Mahomes started his first season with a TE and WR that are amongst the best to ever play, a HC that is credited as being one of the best offensive minds in NFL history, and after sitting a year behind a pretty good QB in Alex Smith. Meanwhile...Allen started his career learning from Nathan Peterman, playing for a first time HC who was a defensive mind, on a roster being torn down to shed cap to start rebuilding the year after from the ground up, throwing to Fat Albert Benjamin, burrito hands Zay Jones, and hands made of Clay at TE. So if you want to just compare thier first full seasons then you haven't been paying attention. And no one is denying that...but what if Allen was playing for KC in those same playoff games? How much better would his numbers be under Reid and having guys like Kelce and Hill and having a defense not choke away games with players like Chris Jones making the plays to end them? That is the real question...if all things were equal, would it really still be Mahomes or not? I think the answer to that question is a lot closer than people think.

Rings will always win every argument...I get that, and its fair. But ultimately, having watched the players around Allen squander Allens own greatness in the post season gets held against Allen way too much and I think it creates this huge gap between how people see Mahomes and Allen respectively. But I think they are a lot closer than Allen gets credit for personally, and if Allen gets say 2 rings he will have his own case for best in the NFL.

I agree, its going to be Mahomes...but that is because of the SB rings...and Mahomes has also had the people around him make the plays needed to win in the postseason, especially on defense, where Allen has not. Meanwhile Allen has had 3 OC's in last 4 seasons, and a defense that never made the big play in the postseason. Especially in 2021 and 2023, Bills should have beaten the Chiefs twice...but KC had guys make the plays, while Allens teammates didn't. Diggs dropping passes, defense giving up leads with 13 seconds and coming up lame in OT. Meanwhile, guys like Chris Jones is out there wrecking offenses to seal games for Mahomes. So I think the question is a lot close than people think.

For my opinion on my own question... Mahomes and Allen can do things no other QB in the NFL can do, they are clearly the top 2 guys. However, there are a couple more things Allen can do that Mahomes can't, and I think you see that reflected in the TD total gap and it comes down to what they can do with their legs. Both are excellent at using their legs to extend plays or make a huge play running with the ball. However, Allens power and size just afford him a slightly bigger arsenal than Mahomes. So for me...I think if you swap Allen into KC instead of Mahomes, Allen has the rings and Mahomes doesn't and Allen would be building a GOAT resume while people would be debating if Mahomes is QB2 or outside the top 5 in the media like they do with Allen. Bottom line...both these guys are special...and its a fun to watch them both play and picking who is better is always going to come down to rings, so hopefully Allen gets his so he can be on more equal footing in this question.

I think it's safe to say that if you polled the coaches, GM's, and players that Allen would be QB2 behind Mahomes by the end of that poll. And I think the vote would be pretty decisively Mahomes 1 and Allen 2. In the media, amongst fans, social media, etc he would probably still finish QB2 but likely by a narrower margin as he has a larger group of detractors there then the people who play against him. But what do the numbers say? Well I think they may surprise some... The QB's job is to score points, and right off the bat we know he has the most TD's in NFL history for a players first 6 seasons. Now the detractors will come back and say that is only because Mahomes sat his first year...well that isn't accurate, Mahomes played 1 game and Allen missed 6 games. So Allen only played 9 games more his rookie year and did so throwing to Benjamin as his lead WR without the luxury of sitting a year behind a quality vet. But...lets remove this argument all together and just focus on since 2020 when Allen arrived as a top tier QB. Since 2020, Allen has the most TD's in the NFL with 174. In 2nd place is Mahomes with a distant 151. 3rd place is even further back at 125 (Herbert). Allen has an NFL record 4 consecutive seasons of 40+ TD's and counting. He puts up 40 again and he extends that record to 5 consecutive seasons. And Allen has done that with 3 OC's in 4 seasons, and an inferior set of weapons compared to many other top QB's Some were saying 2023 was a down year for Allen, like he regressed and took a step back. But did he really? He led the NFL in TD's He led the NFL in TD's vs top 10 defenses with 20 He is first in points added per game vs top 10 defenses wtih 3.8 He again finished in top 5 voting for MVP and only person not named Lamar to get a vote and the only player to finish in the top 5 the past 2 seasons...and that was with Dorsey clown show for 75% of those games. And this was with tension with Diggs and an OC switch week 11. Then there is the argument that Allens turnovers are why he has not won a Super Bowl and why some lower is QB ranking below guys like Burrow who also has not won a SB, but had his defense help him reach one. Allen has the lowest Interception % of all QB's with at least 350 career playoff passing attempts at just 1.1%. Mahomes is 2nd at 1.2% He only has 2 lost fumbles in his playoff career too. There are a lot more stats you can review, I picked some of the more interesting ones from a couple different articles I came across, I will add the links below. So...who really is the best QB in the NFL if all things were equal? On one hand, Allen has statistically produced more with less advantages than Mahomes, but Mahomes has the rings ...but he also had the supporting cast make the plays when it matters, especially on defense because SB rings are a team accomplishment and too much credit/blame is assigned to the QB in regard to winning a SB or not. Josh Allen stats that will irritate non-Bills fans 20 Unbelievable stats for his 28th birthday

I’m not that confident haha. But I am down for a charity wager, but I’m not betting against Josh Allen ha

Ray Davis will get probably 8 of his TDs last year Under is an easy bet IMHO

I like the he Claypool signing too, but he has a lot of work to do still to overtake Samuel in terms of expected role. Unless Claypool flat out wins the job to start outside opposite of Keon, I think it will be hard to out touch Samuel if he is WR4 because he’s not keeping Shakir off the field.

I mean there are not many relevant signings in terms of expected roles, most were depth. I mean the only realistic answer is one of the WRs with Samuel currently being the only projected into sure consistent role. I can’t see any other signing, at least as we sit here today, expected to be a better player this year for this team than Samuel.

As we await camp to open, where is everyone at right now in terms of your biggest question lingering mark or concern? For me its CB depth. While I am very excited to see how Elam fairs once the pads go to see if he can push Benford to start, the reality is we don't have much of anything behind the trio of Rasul, Benford, and Elam with Elam still being an unproven commodity still. In a loaded AFC Conference full of fire power, it feels like we are dangerously thin at CB, especially since we still don't know what to expect from Elam at as either a starter or backup.

I think the appropriate label is the weapons as a whole for Josh are better. Kincaid is going into year 2, Knox is a good TE, and Cook and Davis should be better than Cook and Murray last year. But if we isolate the WR room, whether its better or worse depends on how you view a group. Do you prefer to be top heavy or do you prefer to be more well rounded and deeper? Either way, it is still just a guess because we have no real information on this current group to truly weigh it against last year as only Shakir has caught a pass from Allen and we don't know what the new pieces will do yet. Personally, in this offense, I do think this WR group is likely "better" in terms of fit for both Brady's offense and Josh Allens game. I do believe in addition by subtraction and I think we will see that with Diggs and Davis gone and instead the offense built around having a diverse group that can uniquely attack all areas of the field.

Hey, you will be definitely right if Rodgers doesn’t hold up. My assessment assumes the Jets get at least 80% of what Rodgers used to be and he plays most of the year. No one here is really right or wrong, we won’t really know until the games are played. But there are more reasons to expect Miami to slip this year with the losses they took on D IMHO

I actually think there is a good chance Fields will finish the season as the starting QB as well, maybe even win it outright in camp/preseason. But I do still think Russ is still better than what they had last year, not by much, but a little and they were a near playoff team last year. But I do agree Russ sucks...just not quite as much as the QB's they had last season in Pitt.

I think you need to catch up on Miami's changes...they didn't have that great of a defense last year, and they lost all their best players in their front 7, like all of them. Miami in 2022 went on a 5 game losing streak with a healthy Tua in the final 6 games and was in danger of missing the playoffs week 18 until Tua missed that game and a 3rd string rookie QB helped them snap the losing streak to just squeek into the playoffs...where they lost first game. Miamin in 2023 had a 4 game lead on the division with 5 games to go, With two MVP candidates in Tua and Hill through stretches of last year, they still couldn't manage to hold on and again blew the division and wound up as the 7th seed again in the playoffs to once again lose round 1. In 2 years, the only 2 games they have won against a team .500 or better was the Bills early in 2022 in the heat stroke game. A game where they only won because the Bills were missing 13 starters between injuries coming in and heat related issues during the game. It was so bad that Tommy Doyle had to play the final driver of the game for 5 plays on a torn ACL because we did not have enough OL to put on the field. And that was the reason the OL was so slow on the final play and couldn't get set to kick the game winning FG and Dorsey did his infmaous blow up in the booth. It took that extreme condition for them to beat a .500 team, and they were 1 second away from not winning that game. The other was Dallas, another paper tiger. And not only do they not beat .500 or better teams, often they were not really even competitive. And in 2024, their roster is considerably worse on the defensive side of the ball with Aaron Rodgers now also back in the division, and the Pats potentially being decent if Jacoby or Maye stabilize at QB because the Pats still have a strong defense and good run game. They won't be the easy out many think even though I don't believe they have any shot at the division. Not only will Miami not win the division, I have doubts they even make the playoffs. They were the 7th seed last year squeeking in again like 2022 and that was without Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, and Anthony Richardson in the AFC due to injuries. Then you have an expected improved QB situation in Pittsburgh as well, an improved opportunity for the Chargers with a better coaching staff there as well. Making the playoffs in the AFC was hard last year, but it should be even harder this year. And you still have the Tua injury factor always looming as well. Bills Jets Miami Pats

One...this isn't even speculation; this is a guy just creating trades in his own mind for discussion. Two...this would be a terrible idea. Three...I have a hard time seeing Beane trading for an expensive aging oft injured DE after dealing with all the cap issues after the Von deal led to a year and a half of no Von or the ghost of Von due to injuries.

That is generally what happens when you upgrade at QB, a more dynamic and explosive QB who got him more targets and the ball more.

Bills would be noticeably worse with Cousins. A huge part of the Bills offense has been Allen’s ability to mask a mediocre OL (or worse) and mediocre to non existent run game using his own legs in several of those years. Just look at how much Diggs production leaped with Allen.

Cook on another team wouldn’t come close to replicating that though. Here he never faces stacked boxes to stop him, he benefits from Allen putting fear in defenses with his Arm, scrambling and power running. I like Cook, and he took advantage of what was there. Just saying I don’t know that someone else like Davis couldn't replicate his last season or even surpass that. Davis is explosive and he runs with tenacity. And honestly he probably has better hands too. If Davis can show he can do that in the NFL, he’s going to push Cook for snaps.

Yeah it must be hard to play with all that tension built up in the crotch 😂

Watson. They were actually better with the ghost of Flacco. I think Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers are a better team.

I agree except for Miami and Cleveland. I think Rams, Steelers and even Colts have a better case for top 10.

Dolphins probably won’t even make the playoffs. They squeaked in with better rosters in 2022 and 2023. They were lucky guys like Burrow, Richardson, and Rodgers were hurt last year because if even one of them were healthy Miami would have missed the playoffs last year. And yet they keep losing with those same stars. So what’s your point. Literally this is the worst Miami roster compared to 2022 and 2023…and they squeaked in the playoffs both years and lost first playoff game. The only reason Miami made playoffs last year was because 3 AFC QBs got hurt. Because if any one plays they probably wouldn’t have been the 7th seed and sat out the post season. With all Miamis “elite” players, they have beaten only 2 teams with a winning record in 2 seasons. And again, they lost all their best players in their defensive front 7 this year. They are literally a worse roster now.