Alphadawg7

Here is an interesting read that was posted on TSW last draft cycle. It shows the bust rats, pro bowl rates, all pro rates, etc by position in first round and also specifically the top 10 selections. Interesting that the bust rate for the first round last 25 years for a WR is 30% yet the bust rate for WR's taken in the top 10 is higher at 35%. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

There are a lot of metrics out there, but many of the ones out there defines success min level to be a solid, but yet unspectacular season on up. A quality starter and above essentially.

Draft grading before the draft is not an exact science, but to say there wasn't a "Juedy, Ruggs, Lamb" in last years draft proved to not be an accurate evaluation of the draft given the success the WR class had. But your stats on the bust rate you just said are not accurate. The success rate of a top 5 pick is 71%. But picks 6-10 is at 51%. 11-15 is at 57.1% 16-20 is at 51.4% and 21-32 is at 47%. Lamb, Ruggs, and Juedy are almost certainly not going to be top 5 picks. None of them are even lock for top 10. So that is my point. The success rate of a guy we take at our pick is not SIGNIFICANTLY different like you keep suggesting. The top 10 success rate is skewed by the top 5 heavily, and none of these guys are going top 5. And I would argue heavily that Justin Jefferson for instance is pretty close to the top 3 after showing his speed at the combine which was his only big concern. He is an excellent route runner, big, fast, and has great hands with a great ability to go get contested balls. There is no way that Juedy, Ruggs, or Lamb is so much better than Jefferson and so much less risk than Jefferson that its worth giving up multiple high value draft picks to take them over him. The "risks" as you like to say are not reduced much going from one of those 3 to Jefferson. And there are other WR's who are near these guys too. Thats the point. I am all for a small trade up to get the guy Beane and McD grade out as the one they covet, but to say the risk is SIGNIFICANTLY lower in them over say Jefferson is a gross exaggeration. I get you are not advocating for a trade up, and I am only addressing your comments of how its SIGNIFICANTLY lower risk. (To be clear, ALL CAPS were used to emphasize a key word, not yell bud).

Why do people start polls with such stupid lopsided choices? What’s the point of starting a thread if you don’t want to provide more realistic choices? Honestly might be one of the worst polls I’ve ever seen on here. I love CMC, but this poll is so utterly ridiculous to the point you can’t even take this thread seriously.

I didn't say that. You said they bust SIGNIFICANTLY less. I said the stats dont suggest its SIGNIFICANT. I can list a ton of WR's who busted to match your list that didn't. Statistically, the bust rate of someone taken in the top 10 isn't SIGNIFICANTLY better than someone taken at 22. My point was simply that its not a significant as you made it out to be, and its also not an exact science year to year either. You dont mortgage the future to move up for a WR this year in this draft class. You can move up still, but its totally unnecessary to make a huge move. Last year you and lots of others kept saying there were no #1 WR's in the draft or special guys, yet many came in and made huge impacts right away and proved just how good that draft class was like many of us kept saying. Again this year, its loaded and even more so than last year. You do not need to give up the farm to get any one player at WR this year is all I am saying.

I don’t think the stats show it’s significantly less. I would love to get Lamb or Juedy, but also not wanting to pay a huge bounty either given the richness of this draft. After the top 3 guys are taken, there are guys who will go at 22 to well into the second that would be in consideration for first WR off the board in other drafts and certainly be first rounders. Im all for a trade up if it’s not too expensive because the one they covet fell to say mid teens or later. But a Steelers like move of three premium picks to get up to near 10 or something is too much to pay given the immense talent at WR in this draft.

He already put the money in. He doesn’t have to come up with money again, it’s funded for 3 years. It will be here at least 3 years without him having to write another check unless he wants to.

Its funded for 3 seasons. You’re going to get at least 3 seasons. No, all sports rights deals start this way and it’s going to be 3 years before the XFL sees TV revenue which is why McMahon personally funded the league to last 3 years so he can hopefully get to the lucrative TV revenue after that. It’s not a one year prove it deal. It’s a standard deal that all leagues faced when first starting like MLS, MLR, WNBA, etc. XFL will be around at least 3 years. If by that time there is not enough interest to get to the point where they are monetizing their broadcasts, then it’s going on to be up to McMahon if he wants to risk more money or find outside money to keep it going.

Eason will be a Pat IMO

I remember reading too he was one of the ones who said he didn’t like playing in Buffalo.

Im so stoked to see them at Coachella this year! Can’t wait will be there weekend two with all access and VIP passes from my friends who own it. AC/DC did headline there too a few years back and they were actually awesome. But I think there is no way they will headline Super Bowl because they just aren’t as far reaching of an older band like that. But Rage would be quite the show...although they also aren’t going to have a shot because I think their music is going to be seen as too aggressive I would imagine for that type of platform. Personally, I think Eminem is a strong candidate for next years Super Bowl.

Awesome post man

No. We have enough fringe NFL players. We need #1 target guys and key starting playmakers.

The talk is that Eagles Could trade Alshon AND a 3rd or 4th round pick for like a 5th and 7th. Another situation of shedding his contract. Kind of like the rumors around David Johnson.

I don’t believe Ruggs is a guy they would trade up for. I don’t have anything against him, but find it hard to believe they would give up picks to move up and draft another small receiver. I also don’t think he will last to pick 22. So for me, I don’t see us landing Ruggs given I think he goes well before our pick and that he wouldn’t likely be a guy Beane trades up for IMO. Now if Juedy or Lamb get to say pick 15, then I could see him on the phone. They are more complete and better compliments to our existing group. Than can take a guy like Reagor potentially in the second vs trading up for Ruggs. If Ruggs lasts to 22, absolutely he’s in play as a potential pick. But after he smokes the 40 at the combine, I think he will be off the board by 22. Honestly, there isn’t a WR projected in first 2 rounds they could take that I wouldn’t be excited for. I don’t have a bias against any of them. My comments are about who I think will be on the board at 22 and how they will weigh WR or another position based on the board. As of today, I expect Lamb, Juedy, and Ruggs is to be gone by 22. And honestly Ruggs could be first or second WR taken once he lights up the combine and given Chiefs just won the SB and in a copy cat league, getting a Tyreek Hill type guy could be even more tempting this year.

He definitely clearly stated multiple times how deep WR is in draft and also stated that if there are comparable guys available in the next round, he may go with a player at another position where there is a bigger talent gap after that round. Personally, unless Juedy or Lamb slip, I think the pick is more likely to be DE or right side of the OL. He put a lot of emphasis on DE in the presser too. Then WR in the second or even a move up to get back to first or higher in second could be in play. Also wouldn’t surprise me if they moved down from 22 a little bit if the the right guys are on the board.

You forgot to add Higgins, Shenault, Mims, Jefferson and a bunch of other WRs they also met with that all also had good things to say about Buffalo

Or Chargers are a candidate too

Hahaha ok, I’m in haha

Yup, probably the same amount of heads that exploded when we took the “wrong Josh”. Haha ? I kinda want it to happen so I can grab some popcorn and laugh at the meltdown of TSW. At this point, Beane and McD have earned my trust. I’m quite pleased with how they have rebuilt this roster in 3 years. Anyone freaking out over one of their picks needs to take a step back and realize these guys know a heck of a lot more than any of us and bet their future on these draft picks. If they feel so strongly about a division 2 safety at 22 that they need to pick him or trade down and pick him, then I trust they know what they are doing.

I watched them both live today. Good interviews. My biggest takeaway is that I think we are going to look at the right side of the OL or DE in the first round. Many times it was mentioned just how deep this WR group is. And Beane said they weigh is that the next guy or two at that position close in ranking where say another position there is a big drop off. With how many times he kept saying how deep WR is and how much value he put on the EDGE and OL, I think that unless there is some surprise slip of Juedy or Lamb, that they are going to go another direction in the first and look at the 2nd and 3rd rounds for WR help. McD was very adamant that Ford is not locked into guard or tackle. If there is a RT at 22, I have no doubt they would pull the trigger if he is a guy they covet. They don't appear to have any hesitation to move Ford to guard if they feel its best for the team to draft another RT at 22 or even in the 2nd. None of this was much of a surprise of course, I had felt DE was the most likely pick at 22 unless one of the premiere WR prospects slip. I do think the Drugger is potential guy for us at 22 too. I did not at first, but after hearing how much time they invested in scouting him and more and more I hear about him, I am starting to think he is a guy that could be in play, maybe even in a trade down scenario picking up an extra 2nd or 3rd depending on how far we actually moved.

Lol. Agree to disagree. There is no reality to him almost becoming a Bill.

If we had drafted Tom Brady we would have... I mean come on. At no point was Rosen ever close to a Bill. Allen was their number one target overall and he was not drafted by someone else. End of story. Rosen never got close to being a Bill other than disappointed fans who assumed he would be the pick but was never actually at any moment in consideration to be a Bill. FYI: Denver was never taking a QB. Was going to trade the 5th pick to the Bills unless their guy fell, who was not a QB. Clearly Bills were aware of this given a deal was already in place. Again, there is no reality where Rosen was almost a Bills or even consideration to be the pick. Can we move on from this fringe XFL QB already who has no ties to this organization other than premature outrage by fans who thought he was a better prospect at the time?

How can you still be missing my point? At no point ever was Rosen almost a Bill. Being available in no way put him close to becoming a Bill. So I ask again, why on Earth do people still talk here on TSW about this soon to be XFL QB as if he has any ties to the Bills? He doesn’t. Never did.

Yup!