Alphadawg7

In the first preseason game, Frazier rotated in some of the DE's into the DT rotation. At one point our DL was Rousseau, Obada and Boogies at DT, and AJE on the other side. That just made this puzzle more intriguing, especially with Frazier saying he thinks they could add value there and wanted to get some looks at it while also giving heavy praise to Daryl Johnson. I mean would they consider 7 DE's and 3 DT's??? Seems less likely than going 6 DE and 4 DT, but then again they are getting looks at our DE's at DT at the same time, so who knows at this point.

There was something interesting going on in the first preseason game where we had Obada and Boogie getting snaps at DT as well. Frazier talked about their versatility and being able to do that potentially and seeing what it looks like. At one point our DL was AJE, Boogie, Obada, and Rousseau on some snaps. Wonder if that means we keep even on less DT...could maybe both Phillips and Butler end up off the 53 if they feel they can get some backup support from some of the DE's? The DL situation is by far the most interesting thing still unresolved right now. I think ultimately 10 will be kept, but the makeup of that 10 is quite interesting to figure out. I mean we have 12 guys worthy of a roster spot along the DL where we have mostly kept 9 guys at previously.

Sweeney seems to have enough positive momentum and is certainly trending towards upwards, so I added him back in this round. Hollister I think is a good player and should make the roster, so I think 3 TE's is slightly more plausible at this point than say 2 with Gilliam and emergency third. But they do have tough decisions at other spots too, so its not a lock they keep 3 official TE's either. But they have I believe kept a FB and 3 TE's the past years though. You could be right about Butler and Phillips, they are hard to predict right now for me, feels like one of them is likely going to be gone via cut or traded just on a numbers game. I leaned Butler more just on the fact he has been hurt and I would think he would be an easier player to trade and get some value back on for Beane. I would be a little more surprised to see Zimmer be the odd man out, I think he is a safe bet to make the final roster. In my scenarios I listed for Taiwan to make the roster in my OP, that is the first and most plausible one. So I would agree with you there and still think there is a good chance he makes the roster. Right now, he and Daryl Johnson are essentially my "54th" player, so as soon as I can identify a sure fire place to shed one more player, I have him or Daryl Johnson making the team. The one caveat for me though is the only way its DJ is if they trade away a DE or make a surprise cut at DE. I think if the roster spot comes from anywhere else, it would be to keep Taiwan as I just don't think there is anyway they would keep 7 DE's.

Well if its during a game, I am sure they would have someone else designated to return kicks in that situation and then would activate Stevenson from PS for the next week if McKenzie was to miss time. Could be a DB or another WR. Just needs someone who wont fumble the catch really. I severely doubt they will keep Stevenson on the active 53 and suited up for gameday as a backup KR/PR. I do expect Stevenson to be on the PS. But this regime has never kept 7 WR's, even when our group wasn't great and was easier to make the roster. I dont see it happening now when we are already short on roster spots for guys who would at the very least play every ST play like say Taiwan or Daryl. Stevenson only shot at the active 53 was if he flat out won the starting KR/PR duties, but he didn't seem to do much in camp at all and fell well behind McKenzie for that role according to reports. So that seems unlikely.

I feel the same, but thats what they kept last year, mostly the same ones too and 3 safeties.

Based on how many we have kept in the past at various positions, I think Taiwan would be kept before DJ if we kept one less OL though, just dont see us keeping 7 DE's. I think the only path for DJ is a trade or surprise cut at DE personally, even though I like DJ and would be happy keeping him. And totally agree, if Doyle shows better than Hart, they very well could roll the dice on 2 rookies as our backup OT's. And yeah, I feel the same at DB. Originally had us keeping 10 in my 1.0 version, but I was shocked to see we only kept 8 last year in total. So I made some cuts there. I think Wildgoose or Lewis could still potentially make the roster, or even Josh Thomas too. But right now, I cut down in the defensive backfield to make room at some other spots, again based on what they have done in the past in terms of how many they kept at respective positions. Maybe they keep 5 LB's instead of 6 to add one more DB, who knows. I just know 2 of those backup LB's are heavy ST contributors and good ones.

I have learned one thing from the McBeane era...they and the coaches always mean what they say, so I don't take Frazier's praise lightly. When I started writing 2.0, I had him making the 53. It wasn't until I was done did I realize I still just cant find a spot for him without a surprise cut or some sort of trade at DE. Just cant imagine us keeping 7 DE's, and right now, all of them have a more significant claim to a DE roster spot than DJ. But the next 2 guys I have being kept, essentially spots 54 and 55 on the roster for me right now are Taiwan and DJ. DJ is the better player IMO, but he is utterly buried on the depth chart with 6 guys ahead of him who could literally start on different teams around the NFL. Taiwan is true specialist adding very little offensively, but we have kept 4 RB's every year under this regime (well 5 if you count the 1 FB we seem to always keep too). So it just seems more plausible for him to make the final roster before DJ IMHO without some sort of trade at DE.

Oh I agree fully. His roster spot by no means is guaranteed, and I had him off my original 53 first draft. The only thing was just having a hard time seeing the only reserve tackles on the roster being 2 rookies given that hasn't really been McD and Beane's style. And quite honestly, no one on the back end of the OL depth chart right now is really standing out. Could also be someone not currently on the roster we trade for or sign one once cuts start happening too. So yeah, but. no means is Hart locked in, but I penciled him in given he is still slated as the backup at RT.

That was a typo mistake...thanks for catching that, I just fixed it as obviously Taron is the starter at NCB. I originally didnt list a NCB specific position and just included them all under DB moniker. Just cut and paste typo error Hart isn't one I am married to, I think the 9th and 10 OL spots are very much up for grabs still to be honest.

I am leading off with this tweet and quote of Frazier because this certainly does put a possible wrinkle into the DE depth chart scenario. Pretty heavy endorsement from Frazier, although he isn't making the final call, but still with 6 guys ahead of him as an actual DE essentially in Hughes, Addison, AJE, Rousseau, Obada, and Boogie...this just got a little more interesting then I was expecting in regards to DJ. I just cant fathom the idea we would keep 7 DE's, so I think his roster slot is going to ultimately depend on one of Rousseau or Boogie really making a strong case to be a significant part of the DE rotation. And Rousseau especially is off to a good start between camp and first preseason game for sure. However, pass rush was the focus point this offseason, and Addison (the most talked about trade candidate) has gotten a lot of praise so far, including a big endorsement of them saying he has looked great and they expect big things from him this year. And Obada has reportedly had one of the best camps of anyone on the roster too. But this is a strong endorsement for Johnson, and our coaches and FO usually mean what they say. Its not Fraziers final call, but this certainly peaks my curiosity on ultimately what the DE depth chart will look like week 1. Could they cut Obada? Seems unlikely given all the buzz around him. Could they trade either Addison or Hughes? Maybe, but seems like they wouldn't want to given the SB aspirations and the need to pressure Mahomes to get there. Offense: Total 25 QB Allen - Trubisky RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster) TE Knox - Hollister, Sweeney WR Diggs - Kumerow WR Sanders - Davis Slot WR Cole - McKenzie OL: Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Hart, Doyle Defense: Total 25 LDE: Hughes - Obada, Boogie RDE: AJE - Addison, Rousseau DT: Star - Phillips DT: Oliver - Zimmer WLB: Milano - Klien, Smith MLB: Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich LCB: Tre RCB: Levi - Dane NCB: Taron - Neal SS: Poyer - Hamlin FS: Hyde - Johnson Specialists: Total 3 PR/KR: Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total) K: Bass P: Haack LS: Ferguson CHANGES from 1.0 - ADDITIONS OT: Hart - I had us keeping 9 in the 1.0 version, but ultimately 2 of the 4 backups were Brown and Doyle, 2 rookies. And it just doesn't seem to be our FO style to lean so heavily on a couple developmental rookies, and I think Hart will make the roster, even if we keep only 9 (where Doyle would be the odd man out if we keep 9). I think they are very intrigued by the sheer size of Doyle and focused on improving our size upfront, so for this version I have both Hart and Doyle making the final 53. NOTE: I have Taiwan Jones essentially as my 54th player right now, so I could see us cutting Doyle (PS candidate if so) and keeping 9 potentially to open up a roster spot for Taiwan too. TE: Sweeney - I had him in until the very end of doing my last mock, but after seeing how much praise and love the staff and team have for him, and showing well in first preseason game in limited reps, I decided he gets kept. CHANGES from 1.0 - SUBTRACTIONS DT: Butler - Numbers game, and honestly it could be either Butler, Phillips or Zimmer. I agreed with a lot of people who commented and chimed in on the first attempt that it will be hard to keep 11 DL this year. I feel like Butler might have more potential trade value in terms of maybe a late round pick, and Beane has proven to be able to get value out of guys like him in the past. Being dinged up, not really standing out, etc I think makes him at this stage slightly more likely to be cut or traded than the others despite him being listed as Star's current back up on the first depth chart. This is a hard one to call, feels almost like a toss up here between him, Phillips, and Zimmer. CB: Lewis - I feel like he has flashed some upside, so I had him on my original 1.0, but at this point, I just think they can't justify keeping him over some of the other guys they seem poised to keep. And we only kept 8 DB's last year as well, so just can't validate him on here any longer. NOTES: TRADES: I think a trade is a possibility at DE still even though I do not have it here. Main reasons I do not have a trade here is simply because all of the DE's that could be a potential trade candidate have been receiving high praise from players, coaches, and Beane. The most important focus of the off season was blatantly stated and shown in our actions of beefing up the pass rush. If Rousseau keeps showing up like he has done so far, then trading one of the vets (most likely Addison I would guess) becomes more plausible. But its still a bit early to start trusting Rousseau and Boogie to be capable rotational guys to lean on in a season we are expecting to challenge the Chiefs for AFC Supremacy and a SB run. McD and Beane have both shown to not want to rush rookies into too heavy a role early if possible too. Maybe Obada could be traded (or cut) too, but he has also reportedly had one fo the best camps of anyone on the team this year. Daryl Johnson despite the praise still didn't quite make my final 53, but clearly isn't out of the equation by any means. Just think its going to take a surprise cut or some sort of trade at DE for him to truly have a path to the 53 as I don't see anyway they could ever keep 7 at DE. ST SPECIALISTS: We have a couple of guys who have very strong ST value, and backup, very limited, or non existent roles at their respective positions. And this is shaping up to be one of the more interesting battles...those ST guys fighting for roster spots. Making the final 53 LB Andre Smith - to me he has so far made a very strong case for the final 53 given he has shown quite well at LB and is a core ST contributor and currently have him making it. WR Jake Kumerow - Camp darling coming into preseason full of buzz with a strong trend towards the final 53. First preseason didn't present him a chance to show anything as a receiver per se, but my guess is his roster spot is going to be heavily evaluated by how he did on ST more than anything. From all accounts I have seen, he has had as strong ST camp as well, which is why I think right now he is on the final 53 given potential value at his position as a WR. Not making the 53 currently: RB Taiwan Jones - He is my next man up once a clear roster spot opens, he very much could be on the final 53, but right now, I think Kumerow ST ability is the main reason I don't yet have a spot for him. But there are still multiple ways I can see him having a spot still despite not in my final 53 in version 2.0: One: They decide to keep him over a 10th OL (likely odd man out would be Doyle in that case)...I think this may be the most plausible road to the final 53 for Taiwan. Two: We move one of our DE's and keep only 5 at DE. Although Daryl Johnson would also still be in the mix if that was the case too and will come down to who they prefer between the two of them. We keep only 5 LBs instead of 6. We kept 6 last year, and two of them are also very good ST players as well, so I still have us keeping 6 LB's. Three: In a bit more of a surprise move, we keep only 5 WR's and Kumerow was the odd man out. Just feel like Kumerow overall brings more right now than Taiwan who has no positional value at RB and only is a ST player. So I still think keeping a 6th in Kumerow is more plausible. DE Daryrl Jonson - Already covered him earlier...he wont likely sniff many snaps this year at DE regardless of the depth chart, and he is definitely currently 7th on that depth chart, and 4th at his side of the ball. So I have a hard time adding him into a final 53 without first seeing some sort of a trade or just flat out surprise cut at DE. But ultimately, I think only ONE of Johnson or Taiwan (below) will be kept, and I think Taiwan has an easier path to the final roster given there are more roads for him to get there. Daryl to me has only one shot, and that is moving on from one of the other DE's.

Cowboys were a failed miracle comeback against the Falcons away from being like 0-4 to start the season with Dak last year. We were a 13-3 team last year with the best offense in the NFL and a runner up MVP that went to the AFCC game. Yet Madden thinks they are on our level? Come on now. I am not saying Cowboys won't be better this year, but come on...they have had mostly the same roster for a few years and struggle to win in a bad division, including missing the playoffs the year before with a healthy roster. They should be in low 80's IMO and we should be above Cleveland and Baltimore. Part of the problem is blatant disrespect of Allens rating...he was 88 last year...puts up a MVP caliber season...enters this year STILL 88???? And Lamar is rated higher? Come on. NOTE: In Madden, where a fast QB is almost like having god mode, sure I get that Lamar may be the better VIDEO GAME player to use. But there is no way in hell that real life ability that Lamar should be rated higher than Allen. I would have Allen after last year at 94, and Lamar at like an 88. NOTE 2: Allen wasn't the only one who got disrespected at QB...how on earth is Rodgers not a 99??? Like what else does he need to be better at to get to a 99? I mean that was absurd.

Well I already had them carrying 6 only on simply a numbers game across the roster. But for me, the only one IMO who had a chance to maybe make them consider 7 was Hodgins. But he was going to really need an impactful preseason to make that a real consideration. But 1 catch and getting hurt again did him no favors. After missing the season last year with a shoulder injury, the last thing he needed was to get hurt again. Hopefully it’s not serious, but missing anymore time I think will seal his fate for the PS given the difficulty to make roster already at his position and the lack of time to make an impact with only 2 preseason games left, and one of those the first half will be used a lot as a dress rehearsal for the starters. I mean realistically there are about 5 to 6 quarters at most of preseason football left for the non starters as the starters likely play a quarter next week and close to a half the week after I would expect. That’s not much time for anyone battling for a spot on the 53 at this point. I honestly am starting to believe Sweeney is going to make the 53. I originally had him making the 53, but made a last second change. But the more I hear McD and them talk about him, and seeing him make some plays against the Lions, I think it’s a real possibility he is going to make the roster. And when I do my updated version 2 I am going to include him I think.

After the first preseason game I feel like of the possible scenarios are less likely now. Both of these were already reflected in my initial 53 projection, and I think the first preseason game may have just confirmed them. 1. The odds we keep 7 WRs went way down even further. I already didn’t think we would keep 7, but after the game and there only being 2 preseason games left, the odds of us keeping 7 got even smaller. 2. Antonio Williams making the final 53 seems even less likely now with him not doing anything significant and fumbling once. He was a guy I didn’t have making the roster already coming out of camp because he was still stuck behind Singletary, Moss and Brieda. But he was a guy I was intrigued by and looking forward to seeing play this preseason in hopes he would flash that potential again. But with the first game over and only 2 left, I think the path to make 53 is just to steep a hill to climb now, especially since Singletary looked great and Moss and Brieda had a strong camp too according to reports.

I have no idea what you are even talking about anymore. I don’t even have anything against him. I think he absolutely does have a chance to make the roster, but heaven forbid I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion and in my first pass I didn’t have him making it over some of our other prospects at other positions. But you have for whatever reason taken some huge exception to the fact I had the audacity to leave him off my first draft of a roster despite repeatedly saying he absolutely could make the roster. And I didn’t take a jab at him, I took a jab at your over the top he’s untouchable stance by pointing out he’s clearly not if he’s changed teams so many times in his career, regardless as to why he changed teams.

Man, you related to him or what? Why is this such a hot button for you? You obviously didn’t read my other comments in the thread. I said MULTIPLE times he very well could make the roster. I simply disagree he is a lock this year and that’s it, you’re grossly over exaggerating my stance to try and validate your lock status argument. I mean don’t you think you are over reacting to what was clearly labeled a first attempt prior to preseason to predict a roster? You’re somehow taking a first draft guess of a 53 man roster, prior to preseason mind you, as some sort of proclamation or guarantee which is mind blowing because nothing I have said in this thread is remotely close to indicating that about anyone I listed as making it or that I left off. Hell I even made an edit like a day later after more info came out about Knox from McD that was endorsement and said the follow up comments from people swayed me to think it will be 10 at DT too. And for a guy being so untouchable for McD and Beane, they didn’t keep him during his first stint here when this roster was easier to make.

Please show me where I “wrote him off the roster”. I don’t know what you are reading dude, I said multiple times, even before you chimed in, he very well could make the roster. You are insisting he’s a “lock” and I simply disagree with your lock assessment. Don’t start twisting it to make it sound like I’m declaring it’s impossible for him to be on the roster because I haven’t remotely come close to saying anything of the sort. And hate to break it to you, but Taiwan, as the “best gunner in football”, has been cut multiple times in his career, including by Beane and McD in 2019 when this roster was a lot easier to make. So sorry, your absolute confidence in him making the roster is not an opinion I share. I do fully acknowledge he very well could make the roster, I am not even remotely insisting he won’t. This was just my initial 53 man prediction at end of camp, before preseason game play where stock in players will go up and down, injuries will happen, trade inquiries will occur etc.

I humbly disagree that him sitting guarantees him a roster spot. I fully understand the value of STs, I am not saying it’s impossible for Taiwan to make the team, I’m saying I disagree it’s a foregone conclusion as you suggest. Just my 2 cents

Ive already said since posting, what was my first draft prior to preseason, that after hearing from people I think we could keep just 4 DT instead of 5 and that someone like Butler or Phillips are probably staring at the bubble right now. Taiwan I also said could make the roster, but sorry, him being a healthy scratch is not an indication of him being a lock. He offers literally nothing they consider of value offensively considering he never sniffs the field, even when short handed. They already know with certainly exactly what he brings to the table, which is 100% ST value. They have had him here multiple seasons, he does not need as much evaluation. So, just because he is sitting doesn't mean he is locked in, it could be to give some looks to others to see what they can bring to fill his ST role. And if someone else impresses at ST that they also value at another position (like say Kumerow), then Taiwan could end up cut. Its the first preseason game, they are going to take longer looks at lesser known players as much as they are going to sit key players. Taiwan is not a key player no matter how good he is on ST. He is just a specialist who offers very little beyond that. And if no one shows potential to fill his ST role, his odds of making the roster certainly increase. But this roster isn't going to be easy to make this year, good players won't be on the final roster. And as far as Cam goes, he has had some positive reports in camp and flashed in the past. I still think having to go through offensive juggernaughts to get to the Super Bowl, the defense is going to be slightly weighted than offense this year given its an elite unit and the defense was the achilles heal last year and dealt with more injuries, not to mention having more younger developing players in the depth charts of the D.

UPDATE!!!!!!!!!! WE GOT ENGAGED!!!!!! I totally forgot to update this thread, but I could NOT wait until September to propose and instead did it on the ocean cliffs of Palos Verdes near me on July 25th and she said YES!!!! So I will be coming to Buffalo as an already engaged man, sorry ladies 🤣😂🤣 Seriosuly though, can’t thank the community enough for all the input in this thread and all the private DM messages about where I could propose there and also all the things to do while we are there! Best fans and community in all of sports! We can not wait to get to Buffalo on the 9th! Much love to you all!

Zack Wilson has a ton of upside, but he landed with a terrible organization. And for that, I think he has the most bust potential because I have zero confidence in the Jets ability to properly develop and build around a young QB.

Well Harrison would also open up a roster spot to keep one of those ST aces as well. So honestly, I think looking at the roster right now, the depth chart, etc, to make numbers balance more else where, cutting or trading a DT (I had them potentially keeping 5) does make some sense. The more I think about it and read others comments here, I am starting to re-think the DT depth chart and how many we keep, and think its more likely we keep 1 less DT than I originally posted. So yeah, I do believe he is one of the guys who is the bubble conversation. Its a numbers game, and there are only a couple areas where we can logically make cuts, and DT is certainly one of those areas.

Ive intrigued by this game for soooooo long. Is it any good? I have almost just bought it like 10 times and never did, but I love strategy games

Well this is good news, and definitely a differing perspective than some of the journalists have been saying. McD giving Knox a vote of confidence is a good thing. Impression I got from a lot of the reporters recaps is that he was struggling with consistency. Wonder if this is just McD keeping his confidence high, or maybe (and more likely) its just a more accurate accounting for his camp than maybe over critical journalists can have. I for one am pulling for Knox, and reading this from McD is encouraging. In fact, I am going to adjust my predicted 53 back from Hollister to Knox after seeing McD's confidence in him. Mainly because from what I have gathered over his time here is that McD pretty much means what he says, so I am going to trust this more than journalist reports through camp. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/

Yeah, I wouldn't expect much more value than that either, but picks are better than just cuts, and Beane always seems to get more value for people than we think, or value in situations when we didn't think there was any value. I mean 3 of our DE's have 1 year or less playing experience. So how many we keep is going to come down to how ready they feel they are to contribute this year. AJE obviously will play a lot, but both Rosseau and Boogie are still big question marks on what they feel they are capable of handling. If at least one of our 2 rookie DE's shines and gives the staff confidence they can be regular(s) in our DE rotation, then it will definitely increase the chances we keep less than 6.

Also quite possible, I even had a hard time keeping Sweeney off the roster as I think they do like him quite a lot and are going to try and keep him if they can. But with all the emphasis on DL and pressure to get to Mahomes, I had a harder time shrinking down the DL.