Alphadawg7

Zack Wilson has a ton of upside, but he landed with a terrible organization. And for that, I think he has the most bust potential because I have zero confidence in the Jets ability to properly develop and build around a young QB.

Well Harrison would also open up a roster spot to keep one of those ST aces as well. So honestly, I think looking at the roster right now, the depth chart, etc, to make numbers balance more else where, cutting or trading a DT (I had them potentially keeping 5) does make some sense. The more I think about it and read others comments here, I am starting to re-think the DT depth chart and how many we keep, and think its more likely we keep 1 less DT than I originally posted. So yeah, I do believe he is one of the guys who is the bubble conversation. Its a numbers game, and there are only a couple areas where we can logically make cuts, and DT is certainly one of those areas.

Ive intrigued by this game for soooooo long. Is it any good? I have almost just bought it like 10 times and never did, but I love strategy games

Well this is good news, and definitely a differing perspective than some of the journalists have been saying. McD giving Knox a vote of confidence is a good thing. Impression I got from a lot of the reporters recaps is that he was struggling with consistency. Wonder if this is just McD keeping his confidence high, or maybe (and more likely) its just a more accurate accounting for his camp than maybe over critical journalists can have. I for one am pulling for Knox, and reading this from McD is encouraging. In fact, I am going to adjust my predicted 53 back from Hollister to Knox after seeing McD's confidence in him. Mainly because from what I have gathered over his time here is that McD pretty much means what he says, so I am going to trust this more than journalist reports through camp. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/

Yeah, I wouldn't expect much more value than that either, but picks are better than just cuts, and Beane always seems to get more value for people than we think, or value in situations when we didn't think there was any value. I mean 3 of our DE's have 1 year or less playing experience. So how many we keep is going to come down to how ready they feel they are to contribute this year. AJE obviously will play a lot, but both Rosseau and Boogie are still big question marks on what they feel they are capable of handling. If at least one of our 2 rookie DE's shines and gives the staff confidence they can be regular(s) in our DE rotation, then it will definitely increase the chances we keep less than 6.

Also quite possible, I even had a hard time keeping Sweeney off the roster as I think they do like him quite a lot and are going to try and keep him if they can. But with all the emphasis on DL and pressure to get to Mahomes, I had a harder time shrinking down the DL.

Yeah, certainly possible. I think if we dont keep 11, then the most likely candidates may be Butler or Addison (or both). But they seem to really like both too, so hard to say. But both of them would be guys he can get trade value for most likely.

I definitely hear you on that, and understand the reasoning. I just think this is the year tough cuts for them have to be done and Taiwan isn't going to make it. I get though he is a ST ace for them, so I wont rule it out. I just dont know who they cut to keep him. This roster is deep right now Its certainly possible, but like I said in another reply, I just don't who we cut/trade to keep him. For right now, I just don't know where to fit him in. Again though, this roster is prior to preseason play, so maybe once the games get going some cut worthy players will reveal themselves and make it easier to find spots for guys like Taiwan, Daryl, Hodgins, and Sweeney.

Im also not clear about his ability to contribute or not on ST

True, but in that case I think 3 would be active...one of them being the ST guy. Just based on how they have done things in the past thus far

I don't think there is any possibility they will risk either Rousseau or Boogie on the PS. I cant imagine any scenario where we will risk a first or 2nd round pick on our PS given they are the future of our position and invested valuable draft assets into them. And both have been drawing praise from coaches and players all offseason.

The reason I have us keeping just 2 TE's right now, is because I think Gilliam is essentially a 3rd TE even though he would be kept as a "FB". So I think Gilliam most likely remains on this roster. But RB is a very interesting situation with really 4 RBs having a strong camp so far in Devin, Moss, Brieda and AW. But if Gilliam wasn't kept, I think it would be to keep Sweeney though rather than a 4th RB who wont even be active on gameday. I wont rule out keeping 4 RB's, however, I think we most likely keep 3. And if AW makes his case for one of those 3, then I think we will likely see Beane first try and trade one of the other 3 rather than go into each week with only 2 TE's (again Gillian basically is a 3rd TE as a FB).

Yeah, I had a hard time there too. We have unique combination of circumstances this year, especially at DE: We are a top 3 SB Favorite coming off a season where pass rush was a weakness along with interior defense. We have 3 young DE's drafted first 2 rounds last 2 drafts (AJE, Rousseau, and Boogie) We have quality veteran guys nearing end of their career in Addison and Hughes and one or both likely wont be here past this season. Our FA signee Obada is having a strong camp proving his worth to the roster We have struggled to beat KC and watched Bucs dismantle them by getting to Mahomes So that all adds up to a tough puzzle to figure out that I think leans towards to keeping more DL than they traditionally would this year. One way or another, there are some good players who wont be on this roster week 1 at a number of positions. Hopefully Beane gets some trade value out of them instead of just having to cut them though.

As I replied to someone else already, I just cant see us keeping 7 at WR given the depth of this roster right now. I agree, I would love to keep Hodgins, but the reality is he wouldn't really play or even be active on game days without injuries ahead of him. I think they are going to need that roster spot elsewhere. And agree about Stevenson, his struggles in camp have sealed his fate to PS at best right now. Johsnon is a talented guy I could see Beane trading for a late pick in preseason, but I just don't see him making the roster unless Beane trades one of the other DE's like say Addison or someone gets hurt. He isn't beating out Addison, Hughes, AJE or Obada. And the 2 rookies are locks for the roster. So its a numbers game for him, and its not in his favor right now. So injuries or trades need to happen for him to have a shot at being on this roster week 1. Cam Lewis is a guy I have making the roster now based on camp, but he is no lock for sure. I can see him being cut to keep someone else, like say Sweeney for instance. But right now, I have him narrowly holding a roster spot.

I do think Sweeney has a shot to make the roster, so that wouldn't surprise me either and I had him on there until I realized I had not added in the kickers yet. While I like the upside of the young WR's, I just don't think they will keep 7 WR's. They haven't kept that many before, even when it made more sense with less top end talent on the WR depth chart.

I took that into consideration, but end of the day, there is just more developmental depth on the defensive side of the ball than on the offensive side. We are pretty set on offense, so I don't think we will run as deep on the offense as the defense this year, which the defense was clearly the weaker group last year.

Agreed, its always important. This year the key battles are pretty well known in terms of starting positions...CB2, TE, DE, and RB are the most unsettled. One big wildcard for me is a popular player discussed around here, and that is Antonio Williams. He put on a show in a regular season game and has been flashing in camp too. The problem is for him, the other 3 RB's have also flashed. So be fun to see if AW gets some good playing time in preseason and what he does with it, because if he has a great preseason, he could make the RB decisions very hard for Beane. If he goes on to have a great preseason coupled with impressive performance in a regular season game last year will make him nearly impossible to stash on the PS without someone snagging him up.

Here is my first attempt at the final 53 and also who I think starts come week 1 based on camp reports ahead of our first preseason game. Obviously some of these are certain locks, and others are fluid and preseason could change some of them: Preseason is going to be quite important I think this year to the final makeup on this roster at several key positions. And not just for backup roles, quite a few starting roles up for grabs too as we all know. I would say RB, TE, DE, CB2, and KR (although I think McKinzie is now a pretty strong favorite for KR/PR duties) are all spots where not only is depth chart uncertain, but the starting spot is certainly in play as well. My first stab at the final 53 (starters listed in bold first, followed by backups) QB Allen - Trubisky RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster) **UPDATED** TE Knox - Hollister WRS Diggs and Sanders - Davis, Kumerow Slot WR Cole - McKenzie OL: Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle LDE: Hughes - Obada, Boogie RDE: AJE - Addison, Rousseau DT: Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer WLB: Milano - Smith MLB: Edmunds - Matakevich SLB: Klien - Adams LCB: Tre - Taron RCB: Levi - Dane, Lewis SS: Poyer - Neal FS: Hyde - Johnson, Hamlin PR/KR: Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total) K: Bass P: Haack LS: Ferguson NOTES ON ABOVE: As you can see I have AJE beating out Addison, Singletary staying atop the depth chart, Levi starting, and Knox keeping his starter status ***UPDATED*** At CB, I think Dane is still in the mix, but I think Levi has got a sizable enough lead that its probable he holds down the starting job week 1. With AJE, I think they want to get some of that youth on the field and AJE has apparently been tearing up camp. With Addison being older, rotating him in to keep him fresh makes a lot of sense even though Addison has been getting his own share of praise too and still could start come week 1. AJE and Hughes is a nice balance of vet and youth, with a nice combo of vet and youth rotating through as well. At RB, I think all 3 of them have had good moments in camp, but Moss is dinged up again and coming off an injury. Singletary has been looking good in camp, so I think he holds onto his starting spot to start the season with Brieda being more used as a change of pace back. Honestly, I think our run game is going to be a lot like SF had when Brieda was there, any given week one of them can be the lead dog and have a big game. I think we will have a good overall ground game, with no one guy dominating the season touches as they ride the hot hand or game plan each week. ***UPDATED*** With Hollister and Knox, the guy I want to win the job is Knox just based on the matchup problems his physical ability can create. Originally I speculated Hollister was going to emerge as the starter just based on how critical some of the reporters covering camp had been on Knox thus far. But with this report today 8/11, McDermott is giving Knox a lot of praise and saying he has had a strong camp overall. So given this story today, I have updated this to be Knox winning the job based on McD's praise as I trust his opinion a lot more than others as he has shown to pretty much always mean what he says in his time here. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/ Speaking of trades, after the draft I have previously speculated, like many, that Addison (or maybe Hughes, but less likely) could be someone who gets traded if AJE, Obada, and the rookies keep impressing. And while I won't rule it out, the more I think about it, the less likely I think it happens. If I had to guess right now, I think we keep all 6 DE's and constantly rotate fresh legs to help wreak havoc in a year we are expected to challenge for a SB. ESPECIALLY after how they saw the Bucs get to Mahomes and beat the Chiefs in the SB. And right now, it appears we have 4 starting quality DE's and 2 high quality rookies for our future. Thats a lot of pass rush fire power for us to have fresh to go after Mahomes and the Chiefs, the biggest foe in our path to a SB.

Ok fair enough, maybe its that you come off so dismissive on cap management because you are countering those that are too far the other away in terms of their obsession with the cap. The board around here can make one do that for sure. And yes, without question, Bills and Chiefs are 1 & 2 in terms of the GM/HC/QB combo in the entire league, and 3rd IMHO is a distant 3rd in that regard. And as far as what you said on the cap, that is something I 100% agree with. The cap is there to retain good players and its dumb when people get upset that it gets used for that. Especially given how well Beane has structured the contracts. I cant fathom how anyone could be anything but thrilled with the Allen contact personally. What I will add though, is that too many GM's aren't protective enough on that cap space and waste money on bloated contracts trying to buy progress rather than grow their own. But that also starts and stops with their draft record. If they cant draft the right talent to retain, it forces them to over pay for free agent talent, or trade away draft picks to get costly proven talent, to close the talent gap. But at the end of the day, I feel like Beane has put on a masterclass to the rest of the NFL in how to truly do a full rebuild into a championship roster.

First, I LOVE THE JOSH ALLEN CONTRACT (all caps for enthusiasm)!!!! It was a great deal for both sides and that contract will be a bargain soon enough. If the NFL was doing a redraft of the NFL, I think more often than not Allen is probably the second pick behind Mahomes right now. Nothing but respect for you Gunner, but at the end of the day you’re wrong in how you seem to completely dismiss the importance of it, just like the people who are totally OCD and overly obsessed with cap space are also wrong. Truth is that it definitely matters and is important, and the great GMs make it look easy while lesser GMs bungle it all the time. You are not wrong in how some people overly exaggerate or obsess with it though. Allen’s contract is a brilliant example of how to use cap space. And not every GM gets this right. Cap management is absolutely critical in how you both build a championship roster and maintain a championship roster. Beane has built this team to contend a long time by locking up guys like Tre, Dion, Allen, Milano, Diggs, etc long term on deals that give us the ability to also keep Edmunds and others. And they are all under 27 years old. Beane has put on a clinic on how to repair and clear out the cap for a rebuild while acquiring draft assets to rebuild a team. Then he was excellent in how he used that draft capital and cap space to build a team, and do it in a way that put him in prime position to retain that talent once it developed. There is a bloody road of GM dead careers who did it all wrong. I feel like Beane has changed Buffalo so much in his time here that people forget what it was like to have leadership who made so many mistakes. Cap space is not the only important thing obviously, drafting the right players, signing the right players, hiring the right coach, etc are all critical and very important. But how the GM manage things like the cap and draft capital along the way is critical in being able to both retain said players and still keep adding more talent going forward to the overall team. IMHO, Beane is the best GM in football right now, and is definitely without question top 3. And his cap brilliance and draft management is definitely an important part of why that is the case.

Huh? All of our RBs, including Brieda and Antonio Williams, have gotten lots of praise during camp and had stand out moments.

CAP is actually quite important, at least in terms of sustained success for a long period of time. And what you are seeing is a MASTER CLASS by a GM in how to first clear it out and repair it, then build the roster talent up, breed a culture the players want to be part of, and then properly structure contracts to keep the right players here who also want to be here and win here. That is why everyone calls Beane a WIZARD. There are a ton of examples of how bad cap and draft capital management has been the downfall of teams. Where teams went all in on trying to "win now" by over spending on big names in both contracts and draft picks. End of they day though, its not how much you spend, its HOW you spend. That will forever separate the top GM's from the next ones to be fired. Does not mean its not worth making that big trade or making that big signing. Its making those moves for the right players and then structuring those deals to continue to have flexibility and plan ahead. Beane PLANNED for these extensions to retain them in how he used the cap the last 3 years. He has been masterful in how he has both found talent, acquired talent, and retain talent. That being said...There are many ways to win a championship...there is never going to be a team who will regret winning a SB after they mortgaged their near term future on high cost players and traded away their premium picks. But when they do that and dont get a Championship out of it...well, thats usually the end of the line for the GM and staff and house cleaning begins with a new FO and Coaching staff most the time. That teams goes back to the bottom half the league usually at that point and has to start a long process of building back up given they dont have the draft capital to do it quickly unless they have assets they can trade away for picks.

CONGRATULATIONS JOSH, YOU EARNED IT!!!! CONGRATULATIONS BEANE, YOU DID A GREAT TEAM DEAL TOO!!!! What a great damn day! I had given up hope it would happen before the season began with the deadline looming. I was never worried Josh was going anywhere, but I just wanted this to be a non story during the season and also knew signing now would be a much better contract for the team than a year from now when Josh is the reigning NFL MVP and the reigning Super Bowl MVP! I love this deal so much!

Very interesting indeed. I think we can all agree that Davis roster spot likely isn’t in any jeopardy barring some extreme regression in preseason. But the Kumerow buzz seems very legit and like he’s gonna be hard to keep off the field. I mean Diggs, Sanders and Cole are gonna eat targets this year if they all stay healthy, so it will be quite interesting to see how targets and snaps get deployed to Davis, Kumerow, and McKenzie. I mean even McKenzie is getting a ton of praise and hype in his own right. Often being labeled just totally uncoverable so far, so he’s gonna get snaps too, especially with those specialty plays Daboll likes to use him for. Knox on the other hand seems to be credited with a bad drop every practice. So if he’s not reliable enough, that will open up some more 4 and 5 receiver sets to get all these guys on the field too.

I was just wondering the same thing. I dont think Davis's roster spot is any kind of jeopardy obviously, the team and staff love him and are high on him for obvious reasons. But if Kumerow is impressing this much and keeps it up, to get him on the field its going to cut into somebody's snaps. Not to mention, all reports have really been talking up McKenzie too, literally referring to him many times as just unguardable. How do they get all these weapons on the field and in a rotation is going to be interesting and fun to see how Daboll uses them all. Coming into the offseason, I was very confident Davis would start opposite Diggs, even after they signed Sanders. But Sanders has also been supposedly hot and impressing and him and Josh seem to have rapidly built timing and chemistry like he did with Diggs last year. So Sanders seems to be the lead dog to start opposite Diggs right now. So you got Diggs, Sanders and Cole as big cogs in the offense...if they all stay healthy, there wont be a ton of snaps left for Davis, Kumerow and Mckenzie. Davis opportunities as a rookie came from the injury issues to Brown and how much time he missed. Ive got a bunch of people talking about Davis as a late round target in Fantasy, but I actually think his stats go down this year, only due to the fact I just don't see how he gets as many snaps without injuries. The WR group is so deep right now.