Alphadawg7

After the first preseason game I feel like of the possible scenarios are less likely now. Both of these were already reflected in my initial 53 projection, and I think the first preseason game may have just confirmed them. 1. The odds we keep 7 WRs went way down even further. I already didn’t think we would keep 7, but after the game and there only being 2 preseason games left, the odds of us keeping 7 got even smaller. 2. Antonio Williams making the final 53 seems even less likely now with him not doing anything significant and fumbling once. He was a guy I didn’t have making the roster already coming out of camp because he was still stuck behind Singletary, Moss and Brieda. But he was a guy I was intrigued by and looking forward to seeing play this preseason in hopes he would flash that potential again. But with the first game over and only 2 left, I think the path to make 53 is just to steep a hill to climb now, especially since Singletary looked great and Moss and Brieda had a strong camp too according to reports.

I have no idea what you are even talking about anymore. I don’t even have anything against him. I think he absolutely does have a chance to make the roster, but heaven forbid I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion and in my first pass I didn’t have him making it over some of our other prospects at other positions. But you have for whatever reason taken some huge exception to the fact I had the audacity to leave him off my first draft of a roster despite repeatedly saying he absolutely could make the roster. And I didn’t take a jab at him, I took a jab at your over the top he’s untouchable stance by pointing out he’s clearly not if he’s changed teams so many times in his career, regardless as to why he changed teams.

Man, you related to him or what? Why is this such a hot button for you? You obviously didn’t read my other comments in the thread. I said MULTIPLE times he very well could make the roster. I simply disagree he is a lock this year and that’s it, you’re grossly over exaggerating my stance to try and validate your lock status argument. I mean don’t you think you are over reacting to what was clearly labeled a first attempt prior to preseason to predict a roster? You’re somehow taking a first draft guess of a 53 man roster, prior to preseason mind you, as some sort of proclamation or guarantee which is mind blowing because nothing I have said in this thread is remotely close to indicating that about anyone I listed as making it or that I left off. Hell I even made an edit like a day later after more info came out about Knox from McD that was endorsement and said the follow up comments from people swayed me to think it will be 10 at DT too. And for a guy being so untouchable for McD and Beane, they didn’t keep him during his first stint here when this roster was easier to make.

Please show me where I “wrote him off the roster”. I don’t know what you are reading dude, I said multiple times, even before you chimed in, he very well could make the roster. You are insisting he’s a “lock” and I simply disagree with your lock assessment. Don’t start twisting it to make it sound like I’m declaring it’s impossible for him to be on the roster because I haven’t remotely come close to saying anything of the sort. And hate to break it to you, but Taiwan, as the “best gunner in football”, has been cut multiple times in his career, including by Beane and McD in 2019 when this roster was a lot easier to make. So sorry, your absolute confidence in him making the roster is not an opinion I share. I do fully acknowledge he very well could make the roster, I am not even remotely insisting he won’t. This was just my initial 53 man prediction at end of camp, before preseason game play where stock in players will go up and down, injuries will happen, trade inquiries will occur etc.

I humbly disagree that him sitting guarantees him a roster spot. I fully understand the value of STs, I am not saying it’s impossible for Taiwan to make the team, I’m saying I disagree it’s a foregone conclusion as you suggest. Just my 2 cents

Ive already said since posting, what was my first draft prior to preseason, that after hearing from people I think we could keep just 4 DT instead of 5 and that someone like Butler or Phillips are probably staring at the bubble right now. Taiwan I also said could make the roster, but sorry, him being a healthy scratch is not an indication of him being a lock. He offers literally nothing they consider of value offensively considering he never sniffs the field, even when short handed. They already know with certainly exactly what he brings to the table, which is 100% ST value. They have had him here multiple seasons, he does not need as much evaluation. So, just because he is sitting doesn't mean he is locked in, it could be to give some looks to others to see what they can bring to fill his ST role. And if someone else impresses at ST that they also value at another position (like say Kumerow), then Taiwan could end up cut. Its the first preseason game, they are going to take longer looks at lesser known players as much as they are going to sit key players. Taiwan is not a key player no matter how good he is on ST. He is just a specialist who offers very little beyond that. And if no one shows potential to fill his ST role, his odds of making the roster certainly increase. But this roster isn't going to be easy to make this year, good players won't be on the final roster. And as far as Cam goes, he has had some positive reports in camp and flashed in the past. I still think having to go through offensive juggernaughts to get to the Super Bowl, the defense is going to be slightly weighted than offense this year given its an elite unit and the defense was the achilles heal last year and dealt with more injuries, not to mention having more younger developing players in the depth charts of the D.

UPDATE!!!!!!!!!! WE GOT ENGAGED!!!!!! I totally forgot to update this thread, but I could NOT wait until September to propose and instead did it on the ocean cliffs of Palos Verdes near me on July 25th and she said YES!!!! So I will be coming to Buffalo as an already engaged man, sorry ladies 🤣😂🤣 Seriosuly though, can’t thank the community enough for all the input in this thread and all the private DM messages about where I could propose there and also all the things to do while we are there! Best fans and community in all of sports! We can not wait to get to Buffalo on the 9th! Much love to you all!

Zack Wilson has a ton of upside, but he landed with a terrible organization. And for that, I think he has the most bust potential because I have zero confidence in the Jets ability to properly develop and build around a young QB.

Well Harrison would also open up a roster spot to keep one of those ST aces as well. So honestly, I think looking at the roster right now, the depth chart, etc, to make numbers balance more else where, cutting or trading a DT (I had them potentially keeping 5) does make some sense. The more I think about it and read others comments here, I am starting to re-think the DT depth chart and how many we keep, and think its more likely we keep 1 less DT than I originally posted. So yeah, I do believe he is one of the guys who is the bubble conversation. Its a numbers game, and there are only a couple areas where we can logically make cuts, and DT is certainly one of those areas.

Ive intrigued by this game for soooooo long. Is it any good? I have almost just bought it like 10 times and never did, but I love strategy games

Well this is good news, and definitely a differing perspective than some of the journalists have been saying. McD giving Knox a vote of confidence is a good thing. Impression I got from a lot of the reporters recaps is that he was struggling with consistency. Wonder if this is just McD keeping his confidence high, or maybe (and more likely) its just a more accurate accounting for his camp than maybe over critical journalists can have. I for one am pulling for Knox, and reading this from McD is encouraging. In fact, I am going to adjust my predicted 53 back from Hollister to Knox after seeing McD's confidence in him. Mainly because from what I have gathered over his time here is that McD pretty much means what he says, so I am going to trust this more than journalist reports through camp. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/

Yeah, I wouldn't expect much more value than that either, but picks are better than just cuts, and Beane always seems to get more value for people than we think, or value in situations when we didn't think there was any value. I mean 3 of our DE's have 1 year or less playing experience. So how many we keep is going to come down to how ready they feel they are to contribute this year. AJE obviously will play a lot, but both Rosseau and Boogie are still big question marks on what they feel they are capable of handling. If at least one of our 2 rookie DE's shines and gives the staff confidence they can be regular(s) in our DE rotation, then it will definitely increase the chances we keep less than 6.

Also quite possible, I even had a hard time keeping Sweeney off the roster as I think they do like him quite a lot and are going to try and keep him if they can. But with all the emphasis on DL and pressure to get to Mahomes, I had a harder time shrinking down the DL.

Yeah, certainly possible. I think if we dont keep 11, then the most likely candidates may be Butler or Addison (or both). But they seem to really like both too, so hard to say. But both of them would be guys he can get trade value for most likely.

I definitely hear you on that, and understand the reasoning. I just think this is the year tough cuts for them have to be done and Taiwan isn't going to make it. I get though he is a ST ace for them, so I wont rule it out. I just dont know who they cut to keep him. This roster is deep right now Its certainly possible, but like I said in another reply, I just don't who we cut/trade to keep him. For right now, I just don't know where to fit him in. Again though, this roster is prior to preseason play, so maybe once the games get going some cut worthy players will reveal themselves and make it easier to find spots for guys like Taiwan, Daryl, Hodgins, and Sweeney.

Im also not clear about his ability to contribute or not on ST

True, but in that case I think 3 would be active...one of them being the ST guy. Just based on how they have done things in the past thus far

I don't think there is any possibility they will risk either Rousseau or Boogie on the PS. I cant imagine any scenario where we will risk a first or 2nd round pick on our PS given they are the future of our position and invested valuable draft assets into them. And both have been drawing praise from coaches and players all offseason.

The reason I have us keeping just 2 TE's right now, is because I think Gilliam is essentially a 3rd TE even though he would be kept as a "FB". So I think Gilliam most likely remains on this roster. But RB is a very interesting situation with really 4 RBs having a strong camp so far in Devin, Moss, Brieda and AW. But if Gilliam wasn't kept, I think it would be to keep Sweeney though rather than a 4th RB who wont even be active on gameday. I wont rule out keeping 4 RB's, however, I think we most likely keep 3. And if AW makes his case for one of those 3, then I think we will likely see Beane first try and trade one of the other 3 rather than go into each week with only 2 TE's (again Gillian basically is a 3rd TE as a FB).

Yeah, I had a hard time there too. We have unique combination of circumstances this year, especially at DE: We are a top 3 SB Favorite coming off a season where pass rush was a weakness along with interior defense. We have 3 young DE's drafted first 2 rounds last 2 drafts (AJE, Rousseau, and Boogie) We have quality veteran guys nearing end of their career in Addison and Hughes and one or both likely wont be here past this season. Our FA signee Obada is having a strong camp proving his worth to the roster We have struggled to beat KC and watched Bucs dismantle them by getting to Mahomes So that all adds up to a tough puzzle to figure out that I think leans towards to keeping more DL than they traditionally would this year. One way or another, there are some good players who wont be on this roster week 1 at a number of positions. Hopefully Beane gets some trade value out of them instead of just having to cut them though.

As I replied to someone else already, I just cant see us keeping 7 at WR given the depth of this roster right now. I agree, I would love to keep Hodgins, but the reality is he wouldn't really play or even be active on game days without injuries ahead of him. I think they are going to need that roster spot elsewhere. And agree about Stevenson, his struggles in camp have sealed his fate to PS at best right now. Johsnon is a talented guy I could see Beane trading for a late pick in preseason, but I just don't see him making the roster unless Beane trades one of the other DE's like say Addison or someone gets hurt. He isn't beating out Addison, Hughes, AJE or Obada. And the 2 rookies are locks for the roster. So its a numbers game for him, and its not in his favor right now. So injuries or trades need to happen for him to have a shot at being on this roster week 1. Cam Lewis is a guy I have making the roster now based on camp, but he is no lock for sure. I can see him being cut to keep someone else, like say Sweeney for instance. But right now, I have him narrowly holding a roster spot.

I do think Sweeney has a shot to make the roster, so that wouldn't surprise me either and I had him on there until I realized I had not added in the kickers yet. While I like the upside of the young WR's, I just don't think they will keep 7 WR's. They haven't kept that many before, even when it made more sense with less top end talent on the WR depth chart.

I took that into consideration, but end of the day, there is just more developmental depth on the defensive side of the ball than on the offensive side. We are pretty set on offense, so I don't think we will run as deep on the offense as the defense this year, which the defense was clearly the weaker group last year.

Agreed, its always important. This year the key battles are pretty well known in terms of starting positions...CB2, TE, DE, and RB are the most unsettled. One big wildcard for me is a popular player discussed around here, and that is Antonio Williams. He put on a show in a regular season game and has been flashing in camp too. The problem is for him, the other 3 RB's have also flashed. So be fun to see if AW gets some good playing time in preseason and what he does with it, because if he has a great preseason, he could make the RB decisions very hard for Beane. If he goes on to have a great preseason coupled with impressive performance in a regular season game last year will make him nearly impossible to stash on the PS without someone snagging him up.

Here is my first attempt at the final 53 and also who I think starts come week 1 based on camp reports ahead of our first preseason game. Obviously some of these are certain locks, and others are fluid and preseason could change some of them: Preseason is going to be quite important I think this year to the final makeup on this roster at several key positions. And not just for backup roles, quite a few starting roles up for grabs too as we all know. I would say RB, TE, DE, CB2, and KR (although I think McKinzie is now a pretty strong favorite for KR/PR duties) are all spots where not only is depth chart uncertain, but the starting spot is certainly in play as well. My first stab at the final 53 (starters listed in bold first, followed by backups) QB Allen - Trubisky RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster) **UPDATED** TE Knox - Hollister WRS Diggs and Sanders - Davis, Kumerow Slot WR Cole - McKenzie OL: Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle LDE: Hughes - Obada, Boogie RDE: AJE - Addison, Rousseau DT: Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer WLB: Milano - Smith MLB: Edmunds - Matakevich SLB: Klien - Adams LCB: Tre - Taron RCB: Levi - Dane, Lewis SS: Poyer - Neal FS: Hyde - Johnson, Hamlin PR/KR: Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total) K: Bass P: Haack LS: Ferguson NOTES ON ABOVE: As you can see I have AJE beating out Addison, Singletary staying atop the depth chart, Levi starting, and Knox keeping his starter status ***UPDATED*** At CB, I think Dane is still in the mix, but I think Levi has got a sizable enough lead that its probable he holds down the starting job week 1. With AJE, I think they want to get some of that youth on the field and AJE has apparently been tearing up camp. With Addison being older, rotating him in to keep him fresh makes a lot of sense even though Addison has been getting his own share of praise too and still could start come week 1. AJE and Hughes is a nice balance of vet and youth, with a nice combo of vet and youth rotating through as well. At RB, I think all 3 of them have had good moments in camp, but Moss is dinged up again and coming off an injury. Singletary has been looking good in camp, so I think he holds onto his starting spot to start the season with Brieda being more used as a change of pace back. Honestly, I think our run game is going to be a lot like SF had when Brieda was there, any given week one of them can be the lead dog and have a big game. I think we will have a good overall ground game, with no one guy dominating the season touches as they ride the hot hand or game plan each week. ***UPDATED*** With Hollister and Knox, the guy I want to win the job is Knox just based on the matchup problems his physical ability can create. Originally I speculated Hollister was going to emerge as the starter just based on how critical some of the reporters covering camp had been on Knox thus far. But with this report today 8/11, McDermott is giving Knox a lot of praise and saying he has had a strong camp overall. So given this story today, I have updated this to be Knox winning the job based on McD's praise as I trust his opinion a lot more than others as he has shown to pretty much always mean what he says in his time here. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/ Speaking of trades, after the draft I have previously speculated, like many, that Addison (or maybe Hughes, but less likely) could be someone who gets traded if AJE, Obada, and the rookies keep impressing. And while I won't rule it out, the more I think about it, the less likely I think it happens. If I had to guess right now, I think we keep all 6 DE's and constantly rotate fresh legs to help wreak havoc in a year we are expected to challenge for a SB. ESPECIALLY after how they saw the Bucs get to Mahomes and beat the Chiefs in the SB. And right now, it appears we have 4 starting quality DE's and 2 high quality rookies for our future. Thats a lot of pass rush fire power for us to have fresh to go after Mahomes and the Chiefs, the biggest foe in our path to a SB.