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Everything posted by Alphadawg7
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OT Where does Russ Wilson end up?
Alphadawg7 replied to 78thealltimegreat's topic in The Stadium Wall
Calling it now: Someone is going to trade a bounty to get Russ based on who he used to be then realize he is not that guy anymore and just be stuck in mediocrity while he is there. He is no longer top 5. He isn’t going to be able to carry a mediocre roster, he already can’t do that in Seattle. Some bad team is going to over pay in draft assets, then lack the tools to build a winning roster around him and be saddled with his cap hits too. See Seattle…rinse and repeat. I hope it’s the Jets. -
I get that...and can't really say for sure you are mathematically right or wrong. Admittedly, I do not have any stats, nor do I know if they can even be found in the first place, but I would say I have seen deflections caught by the opponent more than dropped INT attempts ending up in the opponents hands. Obviously both happen, but I think its more common on a deflection. But I preface that as pure opinion with no statistical data to back that up. However, this was not a jump ball in traffic. It was 3 bills defenders on an under thrown ball to single WR and was right to Hyde. So catching it 100% ends the game. Deflecting it opens up the opportunity to be deflected into an opponents hands. So I still believe the math favors him catching that pass which was right in his gut over attempting to knock it away. I think its a very narrow margin of difference though given the overall situation of the play and game scenario. But still, I would rather see him end the game there then risk tipping it elsewhere for a possible unintended reception for a score.
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Nothing against McKenzie, I like him, but you are talking about a pretty small sample size here that basically is tied to his last game. Prior to this Sunday, he had 7 receptions on 11 targets for a 63% catch percentage. Also too small to make any statements about that really. Like I said, I do like McKenzie, dont get me wrong, I am just saying he has been here a while and hasn't managed to make a consistent impact, never had a strong catch rate, and has had some fumble issues in the past. So I still think the offense would benefit more by getting more touches to Diggs, Davis, Cole, Knox, and Singletary (rushing and receiving) over reducing some of their roles to get McKenzie more snaps. Although I do think Sanders role should be reduced heavily in favor of Davis and Cole. He certainly has value to the team, and I would like to see him get some opportunities in the right situations, just think the other guys are ones who should command the touches more.
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As its already been said, its a situational thing...and in this situation, intercepting the pass is mathematically the higher win probability practically at 100% where knocking the ball down leaves open the small possibility still of it being deflected to the opponent. So again, in a 2 score game, the INT in this scenario gives us the higher win probability. If he goes to deflect it and doesn't hit it cleanly, he could bat the ball into a position that could still be caught by the opponent for a potential score. I have seen plenty of times where a defender has swatted a pass just to see it bounce eventually to an opponent for a big gain or TD. Add in the money bonus, and its a no brainer for Hyde to catch that pass in my book. Not only benefits him deservingly so, but mathematically, it gives us the slightly higher win probability than attempting to just knock the pass down.
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I mean, not really that big of a surprise even though I was curious about him after his out of no where game against Miami. But even when we seemed to need to make a change or to get a boost at RB he was not considered. And we had the roster space with all the injuries or covid stuff, so he clearly had not shown the staff he had anything more to offer over the 3 guys ahead of him. After his surprise game against Miami, there were reasons to be curious to see what he could do with some opportunities. But he never really showed anything after that that I can recall. Didn't really hear much praise about him in camp while guys like Devin, Moss, and Brieda were doing well. Then in preseason he didn't do much with that either. Wish him well though in his career
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I actually think Daboll has not had a very good season prior to the second half of the Bucs game. We have an elite QB with enough playmakers around him that most OC’s could helm this offense and we would score points. But Daboll has been a terrible play caller in the red zone a lot of times this year and also struggled or resisted trying to get the run game going until just recently. I can name many examples of poor decisions, however I will cite a recent one that still has me steaming. The 3rd and 2 call on the 3 yard line at end of regulation against the Bucs. You have one play to likely score here (game was too important to not take the FG there given the way our defense shut down the Pats in the second half). This is where you call your BEST play and utilize our best talents. What’s he call? A freaking fade that requires Josh to throw the ball on the snap before even knowing if the WR is going to win the route. This is the definition of a 50/50 ball. Yet we have Diggs, Cole, Knox, Davis, Singletary, and Josh Allens legs…ALL are taken out of the play essentially for a coin flip to a short WR. Now Diggs was clearly interfered with, but the point is the play was the wrong call in that situation from the get go. Absolute worst call I have seen in a long time. He’s made a lot of bone head decisions like this in the Redzone as well that left points on the field in games we narrowly lost. Not using Josh Allens running ability in the first NE game also one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen. I am not a “fire him” guy, but IMHO Daboll has earned criticism this year and I think how he does the rest of season and playoffs will be telling on whether or not he should be back next year.
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I could make a case and point at one play in the Pitt game that probably changes the outcome of the game...the punt block for a TD. But since it cant for sure be known (we were still down by 3 when we attempted the punt), I agree with leaving it out of the list as "one play away" from only 2 losses.
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Move Tremaine Edmunds to DE next season.
Alphadawg7 replied to r henderson's topic in The Stadium Wall
I would be more interested in if he could play outside LB more than DE which I don’t think he could make that move. -
If memory serves me, I think I saw someone post something similar before that Star wasn’t in on those plays. But didn’t verify myself. Either way, just because Star plays doesn’t mean we will never give up a big run either. I mean teams make plays, but overall it’s safe to say our run D is definitely better with him than without him.
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I NEVER WANT TO SEE THE QBR STAT EVER AGAIN!!!!
Alphadawg7 replied to Protocal69's topic in The Stadium Wall
Hard Disagree on Trent ha. -
I NEVER WANT TO SEE THE QBR STAT EVER AGAIN!!!!
Alphadawg7 replied to Protocal69's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yeah but the old QB Rating will over value something like comp %, so a check down QB who has a pitiful game will end up with a good rating for example. Trent Edwards is a prime example of that. The old rating is too simplified, the new rating isn't balanced well enough to be reliable. Neither is efficient, but again, both exist for fans really, no coaching staff focuses on it. -
I NEVER WANT TO SEE THE QBR STAT EVER AGAIN!!!!
Alphadawg7 replied to Protocal69's topic in The Stadium Wall
All true, but its still better than the old QB rating though which is even more useless. Reality is there will never be a stat that actually accurately captures the overall performance of a position as complicated as QB in the NFL. its literally impossible with so many variables to take into consideration. Not only do QB's in this era run a lot compared to past generations, but you have so many variables that surround the QB's and their ability to statistically show how well they are or are not playing. QB Rating stats are just simply tools created for fans and media to give a suggestive snapshot of their performance at any given time. More context and data is always needed to truly evaluate a quarterback, and its why coaches never use either of the QB rating systems and instead look at very specific individual data points that matter more. -
Terrible news, absolute legend. RIP John Madden. On the bright side: At least he doesn’t have to play those crap versions of his legendary franchise game EA Sports keeps ruining and putting out lately.
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Certainly for this next game if he’s even just 75% ready. Not sure he is better rest of season over Wentz though. Start of the season sure, but I would think Wentz whose played all year would likely be better than Rivers at his age coming in a year after he last stepped on a field. Then again, maybe Rivers would be better, I mean it’s not that hard to be better than Wentz either lol.
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He actually mentioned he would consider coming back though, I think it would only be for the Colts
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Colts reached out to Rivers today, just got the bleacher report alert
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My understanding that it goes to 5 days only if you are asymptomatic. Additionally, you have to wear a face mask for 5 days after the 5 day quarantine period. So I don’t see how this could change anything in the NFL personally, players aren’t going to be playing with face masks on and won’t be allowed to be around other people without one until the 10 days are up still. So IMHO this is likely going to change nothing for the 10 day period rules in the NFL, nor do I even see a way it could given the mask mandate for the 5 days after the 5 day quarantine period.
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This is only true if you are asymptomatic though. And it still requires you to wear a face mask for 5 days after until 10 days are complete. So I don’t think this rule is going to help any players come back sooner because they would still not be able to be around other players or people without a face mask. But that’s at least how I understood the new guidelines.
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Did Santa bring you any good Bills gear?
Alphadawg7 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
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Hes never at any point been conservative. He’s literally one of the most aggressive coaches in football.
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Without question Dallas. That was super human right there. Even Ryan Tannehill could have made the same 4th down run yesterday that Josh did. But I don’t think there is another QB in the NFL with the combo of the instincts, athleticism, drive, strength, heart, and fight that Josh possessed to make that 4th down like that in Dallas.
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I already referenced it as worst post of the year back when it started lmao. This board is full of the most ridiculous and stupid stuff after a loss. Last year we went 13-3 and there were people talking about firing McD and Beane after those losses too lmao.