Alphadawg7

I am not comp pick expert, but it seems plausible

Why is this a topic? Not a chance in a year we are expected to challenge for a SB we are entering the season with Webb or Fromm as our backups. And our offense is too complicated to add another QB after a proposed trade of Mitch. Nothing is ever 0% chance, but this is as close to 0% chance as I can think of. It makes literally zero football sense. We already have a stacked roster, its not about adding more pieces later, its about winning this year.

McKenzie with ST major blunder…Stevenson with the big ST play. Gonna be interesting to see if this tempts the Bills to keep 7 at WR, something I just didn’t think we could do just because of needing that extra roster spot elsewhere. But Stevenson now making that at least seem like a possibility again

Curious, what did you disagree with me on my stock up/down post

Stock up/Stick Down notes first half: STOCK UP: Trubisky showing he can be a starter in this league and we have the best backup QB and best overall QB room in the NFL. Kumerow locking in his roster spot Hollister stock way up and making the TE1 battle look a lot closer than perceived prior to this game. Rousseau stock soaring proving to be ready for a major part of the rotation this year. AJE showing he is ready to start (something I projected in my roster mocks). Singletary again showing he’s the best RB on this roster right now and will open as the week 1 starter. Gilliam I think locked down his roster spot, one I felt was already safe, but I think now it seals his spot for those who speculated he be cut to make room elsewhere STOCK DOWN: Knox with a drop again, TE1 becoming more interesting position battle Brieda another game showing nothing, starting to question his roster spot in my roster projections. I think he may be becoming a guy who might be near the bubble going into final preseason game McKenzie (as a returner) with the muff…doubt it changes much for him, but definitely a big no no. Made nice offensive plays to make up for it though

Stock up/Stick Down notes first half: STOCK UP: Trubisky showing he can be a starter in this league and we have the best backup QB and best overall QB room in the NFL. Kumerow locking in his roster spot Hollister stock way up and making the TE1 battle look a lot closer than perceived prior to this game. Rousseau stock soaring proving to be ready for a major part of the rotation this year. AJE showing he is ready to start (something I projected in my roster mocks). Singletary again showing he’s the best RB on this roster right now and will open as the week 1 starter. Gilliam I think locked down his roster spot, one I felt was already safe, but I think now it seals his spot for those who speculated he be cut to make room elsewhere STOCK DOWN: Knox with a drop again, TE1 becoming more interesting position battle Brieda another game showing nothing, starting to question his roster spot in my roster projections. I think he may be becoming a guy who might be near the bubble going into final preseason game McKenzie (as a returner) with the muff…doubt it changes much for him, but definitely a big no no. Made nice offensive plays to make up for it though

He certainly is over rated by some around here, but Beane and McD were very vocal about having someone who has that break away speed, so I expect him to make the final 53 mostly on that even though he had a pretty meh first preseason game. His spot is by no means secured yet though, he certainly is someone who could get cut if he doesn’t show well the next two outings.

Ha, I didnt even know he was in Tampa Bay at all...even worse then.

I dont feel bad for him, few people I know here in LA that know him said he is a total douche. More importantly...QB needy AZ gave up on him right away after investing so much in him. Then Miami uses a 2nd round pick to acquire him as a QB needy team...gave up on him right away. SF Forty Niners with a blatant and obvious interest in exploring other QB options not named Jimmy G brought him in and didn't see much in him to even let him compete for a back up spot. I mean even Nathan Peterman, with the worst TD to INT ratio in NFL history in his appearances still has a job and has stuck with his second team. Its time Rosen faces facts...there is only one common denominator here, and its him. 3 teams who needed a QB didn't give him more than 1 season, and two of those teams used valuable resources to get him to their respective teams. So to me, he is clearly not doing his job well enough either on the field, study room, or locker room...or maybe all of the above. Thats on him, and so I don't feel sorry for him personally. .

I agree for the most part with that too, it’s his to lose. I’m just projecting a final 53 in which he narrowly loses, but by no means guaranteeing it or anything. Just really depends on the back end Depth chart battles at a couple other positions. They have been as much, or even more, complimentary on Daryl Johnson too, but it’s gonna be hard to keep both without a surprise cut or some sort of trade IMO unless they want to run thin at another position to make it happen. Main reason I don’t have him making it is because I think someone like Kumerow will fill his role and we just have too much youth at DE and OL making us maybe keep an extra guy or two there. But like I said, Taiwan is essentially right there with Daryl Johnson as essentially the 54th guy in my roster projection, meaning if they keep one less anywhere I projected I think it would be to go to one of them.

With only 3 preseason games and knowing the starters likely play 3 of the remaining 8 quarters of football this preseason, that first game was much more important to evaluate the other guys, especially deeper roster guys that would play heavy on ST. So I dont think Jones sitting necessarily means anything as they aren't going to use him at RB, and they already know his full capability on ST. So IMHO, I think they sat Taiwan because there isn't anything they really need to evaluate on him and gave the reps to guys who need it and they need to see more of. Taiwan isn't so valuable they need to sit him, I mean way more important players who are roster locks suited up for the game and played. So I highly doubt it was to "protect" him more than it was to get more ST reps for guys they need to evaluate further. Just my 2 cents though

Dude I just sent that play to a buddy of mine like last week that was talking about Clay lol. I was like yeah, this is what I will remember hi for...this and never reaching his true potential. Didnt have a terrible career, but he had the tools to be more, just lacked the mental focus and passion to be great.

I will admit, I personally have high expectations for not only the front 7 but also the defense as a whole this year. If our front 7 plays up to its potential, the combination of its depth, youth, veteran experience and a talented secondary gives us the potential to be special on defense this season. I am expecting a big season from Edmunds, especially having size upfront again and him being healthy. I think Oliver has his best season yet, and I expect a breakout season from AJE as well. We may not have a league leading type sack player this year, but I think that will be more about being so deep and rotating players a lot. But I do think we can be one of the leaders in sacks as a team this season.

I think you are referring to Josh Thomas maybe? They said some nice things about them too, so he seems to be in the mix as well.

Very well could be a cut once Dion is back, fair point. My main reason for him on this version is simply I am not sold they will be comfortable with 2 lower drafted rookies backing up both tackles this year, just hasn't been their style to lean on rookies that much. Then again, Hart hasn't exactly "won" himself anything either lol. So he is someone I can still seeing being cut if they feel good enough about Brown specifically.

But 20 total TD's and lets not forget he missed a little over 4 games as a rookie too. So his rookie stats look worse, I mean his final 6 games he already looked like a completely different QB after returning from injury. So the 12 passing TD's definitely lack context and paint a worse picture. I always felt Allen takes more crap for his first season because no one looks at the context of it or his development down the stretch (speaking media and non Bills fans, not about you). I mean he missed 4 games, turned it on down the stretch and was working with WR's who are either out of the league now or barely hanging on to a roster spot. He finished with 20 total TD's, and based on how he played those final 6 games, he probably reaches 25 to 30 total TD's as a rookie had he not got hurt in that Houston game despite a bad OL and terrible weapons around him. So I always say his rookie year wasn't as bad as its made out to be.

I definitely agree with you on that, and I would have a hard time seeing 7 and 3 respectively. Personally I think its going to be 6 and 4 with DJ the odd man out. If a trade happens at DE, then I can see DJ on the team. I still don't think we are moving anyone though. Addison makes no financial sense, and they have had high praise for him. Hughes is our best pass rusher and a team leader and major locker room guy. Our 3 youngsters are locks, and Obada has arguably had one of the best camps of anyone on the team. I just struggle to find a move here that lets us keep DJ.

In the first preseason game, Frazier rotated in some of the DE's into the DT rotation. At one point our DL was Rousseau, Obada and Boogies at DT, and AJE on the other side. That just made this puzzle more intriguing, especially with Frazier saying he thinks they could add value there and wanted to get some looks at it while also giving heavy praise to Daryl Johnson. I mean would they consider 7 DE's and 3 DT's??? Seems less likely than going 6 DE and 4 DT, but then again they are getting looks at our DE's at DT at the same time, so who knows at this point.

There was something interesting going on in the first preseason game where we had Obada and Boogie getting snaps at DT as well. Frazier talked about their versatility and being able to do that potentially and seeing what it looks like. At one point our DL was AJE, Boogie, Obada, and Rousseau on some snaps. Wonder if that means we keep even on less DT...could maybe both Phillips and Butler end up off the 53 if they feel they can get some backup support from some of the DE's? The DL situation is by far the most interesting thing still unresolved right now. I think ultimately 10 will be kept, but the makeup of that 10 is quite interesting to figure out. I mean we have 12 guys worthy of a roster spot along the DL where we have mostly kept 9 guys at previously.

Sweeney seems to have enough positive momentum and is certainly trending towards upwards, so I added him back in this round. Hollister I think is a good player and should make the roster, so I think 3 TE's is slightly more plausible at this point than say 2 with Gilliam and emergency third. But they do have tough decisions at other spots too, so its not a lock they keep 3 official TE's either. But they have I believe kept a FB and 3 TE's the past years though. You could be right about Butler and Phillips, they are hard to predict right now for me, feels like one of them is likely going to be gone via cut or traded just on a numbers game. I leaned Butler more just on the fact he has been hurt and I would think he would be an easier player to trade and get some value back on for Beane. I would be a little more surprised to see Zimmer be the odd man out, I think he is a safe bet to make the final roster. In my scenarios I listed for Taiwan to make the roster in my OP, that is the first and most plausible one. So I would agree with you there and still think there is a good chance he makes the roster. Right now, he and Daryl Johnson are essentially my "54th" player, so as soon as I can identify a sure fire place to shed one more player, I have him or Daryl Johnson making the team. The one caveat for me though is the only way its DJ is if they trade away a DE or make a surprise cut at DE. I think if the roster spot comes from anywhere else, it would be to keep Taiwan as I just don't think there is anyway they would keep 7 DE's.

Well if its during a game, I am sure they would have someone else designated to return kicks in that situation and then would activate Stevenson from PS for the next week if McKenzie was to miss time. Could be a DB or another WR. Just needs someone who wont fumble the catch really. I severely doubt they will keep Stevenson on the active 53 and suited up for gameday as a backup KR/PR. I do expect Stevenson to be on the PS. But this regime has never kept 7 WR's, even when our group wasn't great and was easier to make the roster. I dont see it happening now when we are already short on roster spots for guys who would at the very least play every ST play like say Taiwan or Daryl. Stevenson only shot at the active 53 was if he flat out won the starting KR/PR duties, but he didn't seem to do much in camp at all and fell well behind McKenzie for that role according to reports. So that seems unlikely.

I feel the same, but thats what they kept last year, mostly the same ones too and 3 safeties.

Based on how many we have kept in the past at various positions, I think Taiwan would be kept before DJ if we kept one less OL though, just dont see us keeping 7 DE's. I think the only path for DJ is a trade or surprise cut at DE personally, even though I like DJ and would be happy keeping him. And totally agree, if Doyle shows better than Hart, they very well could roll the dice on 2 rookies as our backup OT's. And yeah, I feel the same at DB. Originally had us keeping 10 in my 1.0 version, but I was shocked to see we only kept 8 last year in total. So I made some cuts there. I think Wildgoose or Lewis could still potentially make the roster, or even Josh Thomas too. But right now, I cut down in the defensive backfield to make room at some other spots, again based on what they have done in the past in terms of how many they kept at respective positions. Maybe they keep 5 LB's instead of 6 to add one more DB, who knows. I just know 2 of those backup LB's are heavy ST contributors and good ones.

I have learned one thing from the McBeane era...they and the coaches always mean what they say, so I don't take Frazier's praise lightly. When I started writing 2.0, I had him making the 53. It wasn't until I was done did I realize I still just cant find a spot for him without a surprise cut or some sort of trade at DE. Just cant imagine us keeping 7 DE's, and right now, all of them have a more significant claim to a DE roster spot than DJ. But the next 2 guys I have being kept, essentially spots 54 and 55 on the roster for me right now are Taiwan and DJ. DJ is the better player IMO, but he is utterly buried on the depth chart with 6 guys ahead of him who could literally start on different teams around the NFL. Taiwan is true specialist adding very little offensively, but we have kept 4 RB's every year under this regime (well 5 if you count the 1 FB we seem to always keep too). So it just seems more plausible for him to make the final roster before DJ IMHO without some sort of trade at DE.

Oh I agree fully. His roster spot by no means is guaranteed, and I had him off my original 53 first draft. The only thing was just having a hard time seeing the only reserve tackles on the roster being 2 rookies given that hasn't really been McD and Beane's style. And quite honestly, no one on the back end of the OL depth chart right now is really standing out. Could also be someone not currently on the roster we trade for or sign one once cuts start happening too. So yeah, but. no means is Hart locked in, but I penciled him in given he is still slated as the backup at RT.