Alphadawg7

All fair counter points, and pretty much agree with everything you said here.

Yeah I guess thats a fair point, just a lot for him IMHO opinion. That's paying for what he should be more than what hes been.

Hence why I’ve been saying no way Kirk comes here, he’s gonna get paid in this market. His price may have just jumped to $14m per now. $20m for an inconsistent and oft injured WR is crazy to me. It’s as bad as the Cooper deal was.

Seattle will get a better offer for DK. Next years first had a value of this years second. Someone will offer better than that for DK whose still on a rookie deal. So your plan is dead in the water right there.

Not out of the question they don’t want to trade him. But reports are he wants out already, so they still have to be able to resign him. If they don’t think they can, then might as well trade him and fuel the rebuilding process. They still have Lockett and also just landed Noah Fant in the Broncos trade too.

true, but I’m skeptical they want that much money invested at WR before they have a QB too. They already paid Lockett, and DK might walk when his deal is up next year. In fact he probably does walk as I doubt they wanna pay him and Lockett while rebuilding

Now that Russ is gone, DK trade could be legit option. I’d snag him in a heartbeat given he’s still on a rookie deal.

This the kind of stupid money going to these other guys. Kirk might get $14m if this is what’s happening with the other receivers. Bucs also tagged Godwin, and Packers tagged Adam’s. Kirk is definitely not coming here on the cheap. Too much demand and money out there for him.

Wonder what they gave to insure they beat out Raiders for third in division haha

Wonder what they gave up just to make sure they beat out the Raiders for third in the division

Yeah because they gave him all that money up front. Harder to do with a younger player still on the rise.

All fair points, but I think Bills wouldn’t be near that $10-$12m mark either. Personally I think Kirk gets about $12m per and 4 years. And I personally don’t see Beane being in that ballpark with the guys we have, bigger holes on the team, and a deep draft ahead of us at WR.

The evidence was there that something special was brewing in Buffalo during his rookie year.

Exactly, not sure I have ever seen a drops video in the NFL get to FIVE minutes long for one season, thats a lot of drops.

No disrespect, but I don't think you are thinking about this correctly in terms of free agency. Kirk is going to be more in demand than Cooper, Robinson and Williams. These three are going to be more expensive despite being highly inconsistent as receivers most their careers even while playing mostly in productive offenses with good or very good QB's (especially Cooper and Williams). Less teams can afford what they will be looking for, and there is a legit argument if they are even worth what they are going to be seeking given how inconsistent they have been. Who is hot in Free Agency isnt always about who is perceived to be the most talented or accomplished. Adams for example won't have as many suitors because he is too expensive, less people can afford him even though he is night and day better than anyone on this list and arguably the best in the NFL. Godwin is coming off a major injury too and while he likely is back in 2022 barring setbacks, there is no guarantee he comes back and just gets back to his old form early, might take time to get there. How many teams can afford what he will be seeking, and how many are willing to give it to him before he gets back on the field is a legit question with him. Kirk will be a priority or top tier target for a lot of teams because he is perceived to be young and on the rise breaking out, meaning they can get a guy they believe is capable of putting up numbers like some of these other guys in a featured role while paying him considerably less money than several of those other guys will get. So if you want to list these guys in tiers based on their resumes, sure, you can make a case for your list. But if you want to grade as a free agency tier, Kirk will likely have the biggest market for his services than anyone on that list making him a higher tier free agent.

Hahaha yup, I remember this debate vividly, seen it a bunch, its priceless. And the first thing I said when I saw it the first time is that there are 2 guys here, only one has actually watched Allen truly play, and its glaringly obvious who it is. Hint: Wasn't McShay haha.

I don't disagree that if the money isn't a big discrepancy then absolutely we would be in play, and I would love to see him here. Not unreasonable to forego a little bit to play in a big time offense with an elite QB like Josh. I think where I differ with some people here is that I am just of the opinion that I think the discrepancy to what the Bills can or will offer is going to bigger than people think compared to what is on his table. I just believe the market for him will be robust and competitive, so not sure Beane can afford to be as competitive. I will say this though, Beane is, and always will be, seen as a wizard in my eyes. So I won't put it past him to find a creative way to get a guy he covets. But, even so, I just think this particular player seems like a long shot to land here. I would be happy to be wrong about that and see him somehow land here, just today it seems unrealistic given the reasons I stated. I think with a deep WR draft, Beane more likely sounds an affordable vet and then drafts 1 or 2 guys this year. I think if Beane was to make any kind of splash move in FA or in Trade ahead of the draft, odds are higher it would be at RB, CB, DT, or DE than say WR. Then again, you never know with Beane, just my personal opinion of what I think he will do this year.

Here is what I know, 100% without a shadow of a doubt. Anyone who says Allen sucked his rookie year 100% did NOT watch him actually play his rookie year. Allen had some big moments in his rookie year, things that made you think this kid has something special in him. But most importantly, Allen looked like a completely different QB after he returned from injury, which also showed a big jump in development in a short window. As soon as I see anyone suggest he was terrible his rookie year, I immediately know this is not someone whose football opinion is worth hearing. They are more interested in confirmation bias conclusions than actual analysis of real play on the field.

Seasoned veterans who have already got paid like Cooper, OBJ, etc are not in the same situation as Kirk. Kirk has only made about $6M over 4 years, which means he is banking maybe half that at best. So he has made an average of like $400,000 to $500,000 a year so far over 4 years in his actual bank account. And that is before he spends any of that money to live. So we are talking about a 5th year WR, who has been behind legends like Fitz and Hopkins his whole career. He finally got a chance to be a focal point this year after Hopkins went down and he had his best year yet in a contract year. This may be his ONLY shot to get a big payday and set him and his family up for life. The market is reportedly red hot for him, so lets assume that is true. Why would he turn down say a 4 year deal at $12M per year for $48M to sign say in Buffalo for just over half that (the person I replied to suggested sign here for $7M per year)? I mean he could get hurt and derail his career, he may not get another shot at setting himself up for life after football. Now add in this complication...in Buffalo, statistically he is a role player, not a feature player. Even with our #2 WR hurt most the year in 2020, Allen put up an MVP level year and we still only had 1 WR go over 1000 yards. In 2021, all the numbers were significantly down individually with everyone healthy because we spread the ball around so much, and again only had 1 guy over 1000 and no one else even close despite a prolific passing offense. So if Kirk did sign here for a lot less money, barring injuries, he will likely continue to be a 500-700 yard guy with the way we spread the ball around as we have too many mouths to feed, plus Allens running also impacts that. So when he is 28 or 29 and again a FA, he will be fielding a resume of a role player statistically and likely looking at another mid tier role player size contract. However if he was to sign somewhere as a focal point now, if he continues to improve and excel, then in 3 or 4 years he can sign a big extension or another big FA contract. So signing here isn't just taking less money now, its potentially meaning taking less money on his next and last shot at a big deal too before he turns 30. To expect someone to give up that much earning potential between now and that contract is unreasonable expectation in my book, especially for a kid who has made peanuts in NFL standards thus far in his career. So unless the market is shockingly low on Kirk, which all reports greatly suggest the opposite, I can't see him foregoing all that money now and potentially again on his next deal. We aren't the only contender in town, he can still sign with another good team with a good QB and get still paid too. Its not like we represent his only shot at a SB.

I think then you will be surprised to see the market for Kirk. He certainly wont be a "3rd tier" FA WR, and will widely seen as one of the better FA WR's on the market this year.

$7M a year? I can't see Kirk signing anywhere for just $7M a year, he will be at or above double digits IMHO, and the market is already said to be red hot for him. Kirk will most likely get over $10M and wouldn't surprise me to see someone give him as much as $14M a year if there is a bidding war for his services with multiple suitors trying to sign him. Translation: He won't be a Buffalo Bill in 2022. We won't be shelling that kind of money out to the WR position this offseason, especially with a deep WR class this year. Not to mention we still have Diggs and Davis for sure here this year. Bills will land another affordable vet and draft one or two guys is my prediction.

If you want to draft Davis to help our run defense and eat space, great, that is what his film suggests he will be. Someone who can replace Star at some point either this year or next. If you are obsessing over his 40 time as if that means he will be some QB sack specialist at the next level, then I question how much you understand the DT position and what makes them most effective, because 40 time isn't nearly as important as some other traits. Anyone who says a player will do this or that at the next level before stepping on the field is a fool, and I am no fool. So I am not going to say he can't be coached up to get to the QB a lot more than he did in college. However, I will say that its not common to see a guy come into the NFL and start excelling at something he didn't excel at in college. Especially one whose played for a big time program and high quality coaches. Better approach with Davis is to assume he will help your run D and eat some space, anything else would be a bonus. You want a run stuffing space eater, then makes sense to draft him. You want a penetrating DT like Donald, then odds are not great that is what you are getting because that is not what his film suggests, even with that straight line speed (something a DT rarely uses). Personally I see him going anywhere from mid first to early second, which is where he was slated before his 40 time. I just don't think the 40 time changes much for him, it sure doesn't show up on his film.

I have no doubt Beane will take what he feels is this BPA, but people also have to keep in mind that BPA has some need baked into it. And Beane has said in the past where the draft is deep at in terms of position can play a factor in close decisions. But I have nothing against taking a WR in the first either. Just think if the right CB or DT is there, they may be higher on his board.

I think Jameson Williams could be the pick at 25, if he lasts to that. But I also think its more likely we go DT or CB in the first if there is a guy they covet there with how deep WR is in this draft.

I will take your word for it since it doesn't seem far fetched to me really. And I dont really see the point to pile on you over it either like others are. And mainly because I met Levi Wallace's 4 college best friends at the home opener as we sat next to them and we hit it off and still keep in touch on instagram. And they have said multiple times to me that Levi loves Buffalo and that he absolutely wants to stay in Buffalo. Of course, that doesn't mean he will, just means that is what he prefers, I am sure it still depends on what McD and Beane want, would offer, and what other teams offer...but heading into the offseason they said he wants to stay. And I have no reason to doubt them. So your story doesn't seem far fetched to me as its not unusual for friends of players to boast they are friends of players. Happens all the time, not sure why so many think this is such a crazy concept. Not saying this is true or not...but I am sure he has a Buffalo best friend, he has been there a while. This assumption he can only have a best friend elsewhere is a silly assumption.