Alphadawg7

No disrespect, but I mean you’re giving that more relevance than it is IMHO. Again, it comes down to how they use Edmunds more than you think, which was the entire point of the post I made you keep responding to.

Ive been calling the Raiders my bold prediction division winner this offseason, I just think they are the most balanced.

Yet coaches, teammates and his peers say the opposite. That he’s impacting the game at a multitude of levels throughout the game. Maybe your definition of impact plays is too limited to things like sacks and just doesn’t factor in the way our DC uses Edmunds on the field. Because the coaches feel that he’s executing what they ask him to do at a high level, and so do his teammates. I’ve said this many times, the things fans hate the most about Edmunds is less about Edmunds play, and more about how they use him isn’t going to generate a high number of the fans narrow view of what they define as an “impact” play.

Thanks, it actually took me like 3 days to actually complete and post it as I kept diving deeper and it kept changing my mind and how I thought about the battle overall. It was ready like a day early, but I had a hard time landing on McKenzie being a potential surprise cut/trade because I do like him. Admittedly, had I waited another day I probably would have changed my mind again to be honest lol. But certainly enjoying the convo

I honestly would prefer Cook over Edmunds. Nothing against Edmunds, but I think Cook has more upside personally. That being said, I would have been excited to sign Edmunds as well, I think he would have been a good addition here, just like JD would have too. But overall, I prefer the upside and the cheaper contract with Cook. I think he is going to play a lot this year and make a big impact on our offense.

Definitely glad to hear this, like I said I like him and will be rooting for him!

I am loving the reports of the defense stepping up so far. Dont get me wrong I love offense, but the bigger weakness coming into this season was our defense. They were good last year, but they didn't have the edge to them where you felt you could count on them in big moments or against better teams. Looking forward to seeing this unit tested out the gate against the Rams offense.

To everyone in this thread...I am quite enjoying the discussion here and reading everyone thoughts on the matter. So thanks for your participation and good posts! I knew as soon as I hit post it was going to have a little controversial take with me questioning if McKenzie could be a surprise cut/trade because he is such a fan favorite, and that includes me, I do really like him. But the responses have been great, lots of fluid discussion which was really the point of this thread at this stage. I just find this position battle intriguing and enjoying all the various opinions. Its a battle to replace what was a gritty, tough, player who was a staple of our team and Josh's development. So watching how this battle evolves is something I find very intriguing. I am a big fan of the Shakir pick too, so seeing him come out and impress early was exciting for me to see which is only heating up my interest more in this battle. I thought he should have been a 2nd rounder personally, and to be honest, didn't even realize he had even slipped that far. None of the impressing early matters in shorts, but you still like to see it and gets you hyped to see what he can do with pads on and when he gets hopefully some snaps with the ones at some point. Personally, I think Shakir is going to have a Davis like impact this season and will start the 2023 season next year as a starter at the slot. He honestly reminds me a lot of Cooper Kupp in terms of their style of play. And its not a coincidence, he himself has said he studies Kupp and models his game after him. I think once he earns the trust of the coaches and Josh, he will start seeing more snaps as the season grows.

You know since I put this thread up, I have spent some time working more on this very thing, the final roster counts at each position. And initially, I didn't see a path to keeping more than 6 WR's. My thoughts when I wrote this thread were that 6 was the max number of receivers were likely to keep this year, and one of them was going to need to be the returner too. That is where I struggled to justify keeping 3 receivers to primarily play the slot if none of them were the kick returner too. Again, the backup slot position as it is has seen almost no action the past 2 years despite a prolific offense. So why keep 3 if one isnt the returner was the question I just kept coming back to. But, as I fiddled with the numbers last night, I started settling closer to what you have here, in fact almost exactly the same count you have here. If the roster cut downs were to play out like this, then I can definitely see us having the space to keep a 7th receive that is a kick returner which if we do, then I can easily see us keeping all 3 of McKenzie, Crowder, and Shakir. Like I said in another post, I didn't set out to dive into this position with my mind made up someone had to go. It actually took me several days to even finish writing this thread because I kept changing my mind as I dived into more data. That being said, I still don't see a significant jump in production from McKenzie by the seasons end without injuries helping him get on the field more. There will be just too many mouths to feed this year, I expect the slot targets to see another small decrease for the 2nd year in a row due to other changes to the offense, and he will at best split snaps with Crowder and Shakir too. And I still don't believe our staff views him as a heavy workload player more than a guy who has a role in specific situations. So still not seeing a significant spike unless injuries open up additional opportunities for touches.

Crowders deal can be worth up to $4M if I understand it correctly based on incentives, which is why I said it could potentially be more than McKenzie. I am sure you agree that if Crowder was out there this week he would have gotten his share or reps with the ones too. Is he behind a little now, sure...but McKenzie being the default guy running with the ones a few days in shorts to open camp doesn't translate to some kind of strangle hold on the position either. I am sure we will see both Crowder and Shakir start getting reps with the ones this next week of practice. Im glad he had a great week I do like him...but so did Shakir and Tavon. Its all in shorts, doesn't mean a whole lot yet. Ive seen McKenzie have these great weeks the last 3 years in camp and preseason just to watch the coaches not translate that to usage on the field in any kind of consistent role. So I just cant put too much stock into these reports in shorts, I want to see the coaches make an effort to involve him consistently in the offense before I believe he is destined for a significant role this season. I will be rooting for him though, I do personally like him.

No offense taken...all good discussion going on in this thread...and I am not sold McKenzie is a surprise cut/trade by any means. I wasn't setting out to even come to that possibility. It more came about as I looked at all the data, potential roster makeup at other positions, etc...I couldn't get past the fact that I kept coming back to finding it hard to keep 3 primarily slot players without one of them returning kicks. Truth is, I hope we keep Crowder, Shakir, and McKenzie. And its a legit possibility, maybe even the most plausible outcome. But I will say, if we were to keep all 3 I don't think McKenzie has much more production than his career highs of 30 rec and 283 yards. There just wont be a enough snaps and balls to go around. Davis and Diggs are going to eat a lot of targets, the TE's seem more poised to be involved, Cook is going to increase the targets to the RB's as a whole, and I do think we will run the ball a little more than under Daboll.

All good man, just an open discussion. Im not dying on this hill kind of thing, just speculation based on just watching this battle unfold. Fair question, but is it really his best chance? Crowder is the more accomplished player and probably more well rounded than McKenzie and Shakir is looking to be living up to all buzz about him already and has been mentioned the most often as standing out amongst this group so far. So he went from having to compete with one guy in Beasley for snaps to possibly 2 guys now, one of which is seen as the likely future of the position in Buffalo in Shakir. I go back to last year...Beasley had a slightly down year...missed 2 games...and we had an extra 17th game. Yet all that translated to McKenzie was less yards, less receptions, and even being a healthy scratch one game. So in a year he should have had more opportunities last year, they used him less and had just 20 receptions and 178 yards receiving, most of which came in one game. That is why I am saying that as much as most us fans like McKenzie, as much as he seemed like by teammates, it has not translated to coaches finding consistent ways to get him involved. Even in a year like last year where there was a little more opportunity to do so.

Thanks and good points. I would counter though and say they only brought McKenzie back after Beasley demanded a trade. Prior to that, Beane said multiple times they expected Beasley to be here this season for his final year of his contract. Once Beasley asked for a trade, Beane said he only wanted guys here who wanted to be here and decided to honor the trade request. And of course they brought McKenzie back, but they didnt pay him much, at least not an amount that would assume it meant he was the heir apparent to Beasley. My counter to the "he is running the ones" stuff is that way too much is being made of that this week while in shorts. Crowder didnt play and Shakir is a rookie. There was literally 0% chance anyone else was gonna start with the ones other than McKenzie this week. So I can't put too much weight on a "default" type situation in terms of what might happen a month from now. I just don't think you sign Crowder (for more potentially money) if you as a staff are sold McKenzie is your primary slot player. I don't believe they added Crowder as someone to backup McKenzie, I think he was directly brought in to compete to succeed Beasley. But hey, they havent even put pads on. Once the bullets start flying around all this will get more clear. I do really like McKenzie, so I am not rooting against him. I do hope we keep all 3, I just wrote my analysis as unbiased as I could and look at it more from an overall roster perspective. And it kept leading me to his path where I couldn't validate keeping 3 guys to primarily play out of the slot unless one was returning kicks. But hey, that could all change once we see them in practice with pads and in preseason.

Yeah read that too, which will be something interesting to watch. I am not sure he instills enough confidence though as a receiver to really have a shot to make this team if he doesn't win the kick returner duties out right. Well I get why you say that, but there is a big factor this year where I think it matters more. And that is we have been running thin the past 2 years at other positions affording us the ability to go heavier at positions like WR (7 last year for instance). But those positions we were thin at, especially in our secondary, I think will see a deeper roster of guys there this year. In fact, I think we will keep 2 more guys than last year in our CB/S groups alone. I also think we might carry one more OL than we did last year too. So I am not sure we have the luxury this year of keeping 7 receivers again. Which means, there is one less spot up for grabs, so if your full time KR is a WR, then I think that impacts the roster decisions this year there. I have no problem with Mckenzie, I like him. And I do think its a job share...but curious, what makes you confident he gets the heavier workload? Honestly, IMO nothing the coaching staff or FO has done suggests they see him as a heavy workload player. Every preseason he gets buzz and this big expanded role as a weapon stuff. Yet it never happens, they barely use him. And last year, they used him even less despite a longer season and Beasley missing 2 games and slightly declining. I mean he was a healthy scratch even last year, and outside the Pats game, he totaled just 9 catches for 53 yards the rest of the season. This year after they signed him cheap, they still added Crowder, Shakir and Tavon. So to me, I feel like the coaches and staff decisions this offseason and past seasons more indicates they don't see him as a feature player or heavy workload guy. Of course, doesn't mean that cant change this year, just more commenting on what has happened thus far.

I think Shakir is primary seen as being the heir apparent at the slot role here, but I do agree he can play outside too. But he is viewed to be at his best out of the slot and I think that will be how we use him the most. That being said, we don't have anyone great behind Diggs and Davis, so I think there is an opportunity for him to get extra snaps/targets filing in some outside behind Diggs and Davis this year.

No disrespect, but he has never totaled more than 283 yards in a season. I like him too, but the coaching staff for what ever reason hasn't felt as passionately as you about getting him on the field. For example, despite his big game against NE, he only had 9 catches for 53 yards the rest of the 2021 season and even was a healthy scratch one game. I am not slamming him, just pointing out the our coaches have just not gotten him on the field in any regular capacity for some reason.

Who do you see as the primary kick returner? If you think Tavon or Stevenson is going to win the job for example, then you are now at 4 slot players essentially in your WR group with Crowder, McKenzie, and Shakir. Not impossible by any means, just find it hard to believe they would go that heavy at a position that is likely going to be slightly less of a focal point this year than the Beasley years.

This battle is one of the most intriguing to me on the roster given its wide open from starter to backups, but also in how this position might change some this year than in years past. While there are more technically competing, there are really only 5 slot WR's who are legitimately in the race for a roster sot: Crowder, Shakir, McKenzie, Stevenson and Tavon. I don't list Hodgins, because I just do not see a path for him to the final roster based on the other 5 ahead of him. Overall, this is going to be a tough roster to make for anyone who does not have a locked down roster spot at any position. And I think that is especially true at the slot position, where each guy competing has an interesting list of pros and cons that makes this battle tighter than I think some think. But as I really look at and break down this position battle, things begin to stand out to me... There are really only 3 possible outcomes: 4 make the roster - Seems unreasonable to think we will keep 4 "slot" guys, not impossible, but with all the other tough roster decisions, this seems unlikely. 3 of them make the roster - I think this is the more likely scenario where 2 are the starter and backup that rotates in with the 3rd mostly being a return guy. They only keep 2 - For this to happen, one of them would have to be the primary kick returner, or someone from another position wins the KR duties. First lets just look at what the slot position has been the past 2 seasons: We only kept 2 guys, Beasley and McKenzie to handle slot duties. Beasley as we know dominated the snaps, targets and receptions. Our 2nd slot WR averaged just 25 receptions, and 230 yards (both years was McKenzie) With our backup slot player seeing very few targets and snaps previously here, its hard to imagine we keep 3 unless one of those 3 is a kick return specialist. Next lets look at what new factors could impact the usage rate of the position overall this year: We have a new OC who has a history of using his TE's when he played QB. We signed OJ Howard to compliment Knox and reports already surfacing of signs we may use more 2 TE sets this year. Gabriel Davis seem poised for a big roles as a featured #2 WR. It was obvious in FA they wanted a receiving specialist out of the backfield and ultimately drafted Cook who will play a lot this year and take some of the targets that normally were going to Beasley Target Distribution: Last years targets and how they might differ this season Davis and Sanders combined for 135 targets last year opposite Diggs, while Diggs got 165. I think Davis is going to get at least those same 135 targets, and might even see some above that this year as the featured #2 poised for a breakout. Wouldn't surprise me to see him reach 150+ targets, especially with the way Diggs draws the most attention. Our RB's last year combined for 96 targets, with 50 of those coming from Devin. I think the addition of Cook could see that increase by at least 30 targets, if not more, as all signs seem to point to that being the intent. Our TE's combined for 83 targets last year, Dominated by 71 to Knox. There is reason to believe the overall TE targets could increase this year with the addition of Dorsey as OC and Howard as the 2nd TE. I think Knox probably stays in that 70-80 range, but I bet Howard has more than the 12 targets Sweeney got last year and pushes 25+ targets. Run game impact: Also expecting to see the run game more involved this year, which will take snaps from the passing game, and therefore potentially impact targets. Slot receivers (dominated by Beasley's 112) saw 138 targets in 2021, which was 3 less than 2020 despite the fact we had a 17th game in 2021. So the slot position already saw a slight decline in targets last year. Now with Beasley gone, its reasonable to assume the position itself will be less dominated by a single player and also likely see another slight total target decrease overall. While still a valuable position, I think its slightly diminished in importance heading into this season, which will make it even harder to justify keeping an extra player they may not need here. So where does that leave us...we have 5 guys in a legitimate completion for not only the starting designation as the slot WR, but also up backup duties and potentially primary kick returner duties. So how many guys will they actually keep at the slot? Interesting questions that could make decisions harder: What if Shakir locks down the #2 spot at the slot, or even emerges as a surprise week 1 starter like Groot surprisingly did last year? Shakir is by far the safest and practically a lock for the roster. Not only is he standing out the most so far, they were high on him before the draft and this kid is viewed as the future of the position. He was probably my favorite pick during the draft and I think he should have been a 2nd rounder personally. And they also know there is no way they could safely hide him on the PS, therefore he will be on the roster come week 1. It's not out of the question he could out right win the starting nod (although less likely), especially if they feel the slot role will be less vital than Beasley had been in the past with all the weapons in the offense and emergence of Davis. If Shakir is the primary backup (or even starter) would they really keep a 3rd slot guy that doesn't return kicks? We are talking about a position that saw the primary backup slot WR average just 25 rec and 230 yards a season the last 2 years in these prolific offenses. So what value would a 3rd slot guy be if not returning kicks? What if Tavon or Stevenson locks down the return duties, making one of them an automatic lock for a 3rd slot WR kept? With Shakir locked up, that would mean we have 2 slot guys being kept in Shakir and Tavon/Stevenson, so who would be the 3rd? If Crowder earns the starting nod, where does that leave Mckenzie and vice versa? Again, just hard to see them keeping 4 slot WR's when we barely used our 2nd guy the past 3 seasons as it was. What I think is most likely going to happen: We keep 3 slot receivers - Primary, Backup, and KR IMHO, only 2 receivers will be kept to take the majority, if not all, the snaps on the field as a slot WR. And one of those is certainly going to be Shakir. The only justification to keeping a 3rd slot guy will be as a returner IMHO. Its possible that either McKenzie or Shakir could surprise and win the returner duties, but I think its less likely. They didn't like McKenzie as a returner last year, and while Shakir did return kicks in college, it wasn't something he was a major standout for. I do have a feeling the KR duties will be won by either Tavon or Stevenson. I think of all the players on the roster they are looking at, they make the most sense. If I had to pick one today, I think Tavon has had the better camp so far and his better ability as a receiver and his experience overall edges out Stevensons youth. Plus, they can still stash Stevenson on the PS. One spot to fight for: Crowder vs McKenzie Assuming Shakir secures one of the top 2 spots, that would leave a battle really between Crowder and McKenzie for the other slot WR spot leading to one of them being a surprise cut/trade this preseason. Starter role (Shakir as primary backup): I think this favors Crowder based on how more accomplished and proven he is as a starting slot WR and the fact that I don't think the staff really views McKenzie as that type of player. Backup role (Shakir surprises and wins primary role): I think this would be more favorable outcome to McKenzie as I think they are much more comfortable with him in a backup role instead as the primary slot WR. Crowders biggest issue has been health having missed 4 games or more in 3 of the past 4 seasons. But, he is the most accomplished slot player on the roster, and has done well while playing in bad offenses with bad QB's most of his career. He has a lot of potential here playing along side so much talent and catching passes from an elite QB. But, he is off to a slow start just given hes been held out everyday for tightness already as it is. He will need to get on the field soon and start showing he can stay healthy and show that potential if he wants to start establishing himself as a potential starter here. When I look at McKenzie and his time here, some things stand out to me: The staff doesn't seem inclined to involve him. McKenzie every off season seems to have great camps, and all this buzz comes up about how he will have a bigger role and be a real weapon for us that season. But to date, its still not happened, and even with an extra game last year and Beasley with a slight decline and missing time, McKenzie had less targets, less catches, and less yards than in 2020. He has never had more than 30 receptions in a season and never reached 300 yards receiving either. He even has healthy scratches since being here, including last year. They resigned him cheap, not for an amount that would make you think they see him as a vital piece of the offense. We then proceeded to sign 2 more veterans in Crowder and Tavon, as well as draft Shakir. Our staff doesn't seem to want to rely on McKenzie to return kicks either. When I really look at al that above, what seems to be clear to me is while they like McKenzie, they just don't view him as a heavy workload player. The staff hasn't shown they view McKenzie as a guy they have to find a way to get on the field outside some specific gadget plays. And our FO did not behave in a way that showed confidence that he could take over for Beasley giving him a small deal and going out and bringing in more accomplished guys and drafting a promising rookie. My guess/opinon today before pads: McKenzie is a surprise cut/trade (assuming Crowder stays mostly healthy) FIRST: I want to make it clear, I DO LIKE MCKENZIE. Not at all campaigning against him, just looking at it from an unbiased view in how I think things could shake out based on data, roster makeup, roles, etc all discussed above. By no means is this a "guarantee", especially since we still need to see Crowder on the field and how he does with Josh...and can he stay on the field. Ultimately, I think Crowder is just the better player in a year we are SB or bust essentially. And quite honestly, I think Shakir is going to get relevant snaps and there are other guys like Cook (or even Tavon if he wins the KR duties) that can run some of the gadget plays we have used McKenzie for in the past. So, even though I like McKenzie, I am starting to think he could be a surprise cut/trade. I think the two biggest impacts to McKenzie will be the rise of Shakir and the fact they don't want to use him to return kicks. I just can not see them justifying keeping 3 slot WR's unless one is returning kicks. So I think McKenzie is "starter" or bust almost, and I just can't get past the belief that I don't think the staff views McKenzie as a season long heavy workload guy. So his best path to the roster is as a backup more so than a starter IMHO. This is just an opinion on what I think might happen as we sit here before pads go on. Still a lot to see and develop during training camp and preseason and will update as the the preseason goes on.

Ping me when you have your fist positive take on the board, I would like to be there for that moment

Well there goes 25 receptions we could have had 🤣

Fair enough, but I do think a more reasonable expectation for McKenzie this year though is less than 40 receptions and less than 400 yards. Honestly, Crowder talent wise to me is just a better all around receiver and I honestly think Shakir is the future there and could make more of an impact this year than people think with the crowded grouping at the slot WR spot. Now if Crowder struggles to stay healthy, or surprisingly disappoints this camp, then all that changes. I think Crowder could easily go from expected to starter to cut candidate if he struggles to stay healthy or struggles in camp, especially if Shakir keeps impressing the way he is. But my assessment today on McKenzie is solely based on the expectation that Crowder doesn't disappoint and stays healthy enough to earn a spot on the team. And as far as Devin goes, he will still get receptions too this year. He proved last year he can be good enough catching passes and effective. So they are too smart to telegraph it to where they never throw it to Devin and always throw it to Cook. So I still think Devin gets 30+ catches this year while Cook gets 50+ just because I feel like they really want to use their RB's more both in running and catching the ball. So with Cook here I feel there is a probability that we see an additional 30-50 more receptions overall to the RB's combined compared to last season. I can easily see another 2-4 receptions per game more going to the RB position overall this season compared to last. Which is why I highlighted Cook in my last reply because I think his presence will be the main catalyst to the increase of targets to RB's.

Yeah, I do really think Davis has a shot at leading the Bills in receiving this year, especially yards and TD's. Not a knock on Diggs, more of a compliment to Diggs and the attention he gets. The chemistry and timing between Josh and Davis seems incredibly high, and wont surprise me to see both him and Diggs as 1000+ yard WRs this year. And Davis has proven he wants it and has put the work in to really breakout. As far as the 6000 total yards and 60 TDs, I mean if there was any QB in the NFL that cold do reach those marks its Allen. He is easily a 5000 yard passing candidate every season and 500+ yard rushing candidate. So its not unrealistic to see him put up say 5300 yards passing and 700 yards rushing with say 52 TDs passing and 8 TD's rushing for example. I don't think its likely, because I really do believe moving forward there is going to be a renewed effort and focus to keep our running game more involved than Daboll averaged. Especially given that once the light switch seemed to flip at half time against the Bucs that almost led us to a comeback, we wouldn't lose again the rest of the season until the 13 seconds debacle. McD was very vocal earlier in the season about finding a way to consistently run the ball too, so I think for Josh to hit that 6000 yard club with 60 total TD's it would have to be a situation where Josh once again was the whole offense. And I just expect a little more balance than that with the OL additions, coaching changes at OC and OL coach, and the success we had once we got the run game going.

No offense bud, but saying he will have a "career high in receptions and yards" isn't saying much when his career high in receptions is 30 and yards is 282 (both occurred in 2020). So sure, he can have a career high in both with for example 33 catches and 314 yards...but that doesn't mean anything, just means he played essentially the same role. Here is where I think you are incorrectly assessing the situation. You just exclusively redistributed all of Beasleys targets exclusively to the Slot WR's, and thats just not accurate way to look at that this year IMHO. Davis is going to see a relevant uptick in targets this year, and honestly, would not surprise me if he leads the team in receiving this year as a full time starter opposite Diggs while Diggs draws the tougher coverage. Even if he doesn't, hes still going to get a lot more targets as a full time starter, and one that has great rapport with Josh. Davis IMHO will see a bigger role as the WRs in this years offense than Sanders was in last years offense. Now you also have Cook, who is going to eat a chunk of those slot targets this year, and I think he is easily in line for a 50+ reception himself season, if not even more. Now you still have Knox whose only been getting better (also in a contract year) and the additional of OJ Howard to go along with a new OC that seems interested in using the TE more. Not to mention, its a reasonable expectation that the run game will be getting more snaps and more involved this year from the start of the season. So, I cant see McKenzie suddenly getting all the targets he got last year plus another third of Beasleys, unless he dominates the snaps at slot, which I think is unrealistic based on how good Crowder is, and how good Shakir might be (and so far so good in what we have seen from him). And with Shakir the future of the position, I can easily see him eating more targets up during the back half of the season too assuming he keeps doing a good job with his opportunities.

One of my favorite Bills plays of all time, just insane route

I think there is a strong chance of a job share situation at slot. I can see Crowder, Shakir and McKenize all getting snaps. It’s absolutely an open competition, and going to be fun to see how it plays out. But I still think Crowder probably wins the job by week 1, but he’s going to obviously have to earn it, they won’t just give it to him. They resigned McKenzie cheap and then proceeded to sign Crowder, draft Shakir, and signed Tavon. They clearly felt the slot needed more competition even after signing McKenzie back. So I just have a hard time seeing McKenzies role being much bigger than last year unless he really outplays the others in camp, which could happen, but I think unlikely because Crowder is good and Shakir is off to a good start as well. To be honest, I also think Shakir is going to see more snaps down the stretch too much like how Davis did the last 2 years.